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The Football Guru

Member Since 05 Feb 2005
Offline Last Active Today, 03:18 AM

#6284207 Doug Orth's Big Boards - Non-PPR, Half-Point Added

Posted by The Football Guru on 11 August 2018 - 11:17 PM

It's completely silly and almost irresponsible, as a supposed "expert", to rank Fournette #2 in PPR (or in any league).  I understand wanting to be "different" and perhaps "bold", but come on.  And then to say you probably wouldn't draft him #2 if given the option, seems like a complete waste of time, regardless how you spin it.  I've followed you over the years and have used your big board in the past, but once I saw Fournette #2, I almost stopped, until I saw Bell at 11?????  If Bell were there at 8, and you were on the board, would you not take Bell?  I would think your BOARD would represent what you would pick if given the choice, no way Bell last until 11, even if you are drafting...makes ZERO sense.


I would love for you to join a big $ PPR league, have the #2 pick, and draft Fournette (put your money where your mouth is). Don't rank him #2 and not pick him.  Otherwise, put him where you would actually take him if given the choice!


And Kamara at 17 with Ingram out the first 4-weeks?  This guy is a PPR machine, crazy where you have him ranked.


I think you mostly misinterpreted what I said. It's not about me being bold or different, it's about readers saying they want it and criticizing those analysts when they do it. I knew I was going to ruffle a few feathers doing it. That either makes me crazy (possible) or someone who very much believes in what he is saying.


If you want to ignore the warning signs with Bell and Kamara, that's your call. The overriding point was I would take Bell once if I was given a multitude of high picks in drafts, which almost never happens. I want almost no shares of Bell this year and I'll stick by that even if he proves me wrong. I only want one share so I can diversify my portfolio.


Kamara was historically efficient from a yardage and touchdown standpoint. Payton has already said he doesn't want to put much more on his plate. I tend to believe him b/c Payton has been an RBBC guy since he arrived.


I will take Fournette if/when the time comes, although I doubt I'll get a top three pick. I can't remember getting such a pick in the last 3-4 years and I've been in an average of about 12 leagues (so around 50 drafts).


I'm dropping roughly $5-6 K into money leagues this year (most of which is house money) and my Big Boards are what I use. I play 1.5 K leagues on Fuzzy's and a handful of RTS leagues. Come join me.

#6282928 Doug Orth's Big Boards - Non-PPR, Half-Point Added

Posted by The Football Guru on 09 August 2018 - 11:07 PM

Is anyone out there worried about D. Cook's TDs being vultured by Murray? 


That Cook is coming back from injury and the team won't have any reason to overwork him?  


Doug has him ranked pretty high over some stud WRs (Thomas, Adams Julio, for example).


I think it is more of a concern than most seem to think. With that said, everything I hear coming out of Minnesota is the Vikings will let Cook hit the ground running.

#6276356 Rookie Draft Rankings - Top 50

Posted by The Football Guru on 30 July 2018 - 09:23 PM

Updated Doug's top 50 overall for rookies. I also added some ADP data so you can see where Doug is higher or lower than concensus.


Nice touch, boss.  :thumbsup:

#6272475 RB Wisdom

Posted by The Football Guru on 24 July 2018 - 10:15 PM

I have a hard time seeing McKinnon as "the guy".   He just seems to be better suited as a complimentary back.  McKinnon had his opportunities in Minnesota in more than one season when he was thrust into an unexpectedly  prominent role due to circumstances. He could not even keep a plodder like Asiata off of the field.  


I hear this over and over about McKinnon. It never seemed as though he lost the job to Asiata, rather the Vikings deciding he couldn't handle the full load. I'll bet on a superior athlete and Kyle Shanahan's eye for RB talent over the whims of Norv Turner and Pat Shurmur.


With that said, Mixon is the better keeper candidate IMO, so I agree with you there.

#6265473 Sleeper RB......

Posted by The Football Guru on 15 July 2018 - 03:34 PM

Joe Williams is a good call. McKinnon won't last.


Just saw this on Twitter and didn't want to create another thread. Are we sure he's too small?



#6262395 ** Rounds 4-6 Commentary - July PPR Mock 2018 **

Posted by The Football Guru on 11 July 2018 - 02:34 PM

Happy with my RB/WR core and felt I could draft a solid QB without playing catchup.  He was last years #1 and he will still be throwing a ton.


Your team in this draft is built similar to the team I'm drafting in the Scott Fish Bowl at the moment out of the 12 spot. (It's a compliment.) Scoring is considerably different, but I snagged Collins as my RB2 at 4.01 and Fitz as my WR2 at 6.01.


My RB1 is similar to your RB1 (Hunt, Gordon) and the WR1s are similar as well (OBJ, Allen). While Brees and Wilson are considerably different QBs, both have huge ceilings and safe floors.

#6240512 Question for Mike

Posted by The Football Guru on 10 June 2018 - 03:14 PM

Live look at FF Today headquarters at the start of the season.  :lol: 

#6218009 Dynasty Rankings - Update

Posted by The Football Guru on 08 May 2018 - 02:25 PM

Overall the rankings are great with a few minor things I don't agree 100% with. If we ranked players the same and agreed on everything it would take a lot of fun out playing fantasy football.


Thanks. I'm not taking your remarks as criticism. It's good to have differing opinions.


Believe me, I don't lose sleep over worrying about what potential criticism when I do rankings/analysis. This isn't the right business for people with thin skin  :P

#6212614 Instant Fantasy Analysis - QB Baker Mayfield, Browns

Posted by The Football Guru on 01 May 2018 - 12:40 AM

Let's pretend both Ward amd Chubb become the best at their positions in the NFL.

A top 2 or 3 CB in the league affects opposing offenses by making the offense simply not throw to the receiver they are covering. A top 2 or 3 defensive end in the league causes opposing offenses the need to scheme around various blocking efforts with different personnel on the field for both run and passing downs.

A top defensive end is way more valuable to a defense overall. Basically, top CBs can simply be avoided where great DEs cannot be.


Not going to agree or disagree with this. I think Chubb is the better player, so that is who I would have drafted.


At any rate, I saw/heard where DC Gregg Williams opted for Ward over Chubb for two main reasons: 1) his defenses play more press coverage than any other team and he thought Ward was the best at it in the draft and 2) he seems to be pretty high on Emmanuel Ogbah.


Here's the quote (link):


Sodium pentathol, and defensive coordinator Gregg Williams, came up in the wake of the Denzel Ward pick. Truth serum. My question to Dorsey on Friday morning: “If we gave Gregg Williams sodium pentathol right now, who would he have said he wanted with the fourth pick—Denzel Ward or Bradley Chubb?” Dorsey pulled out his cell phone and rang Williams. I asked him the question. Williams: “Ward. The reason is our need for a press cover cornerback. Denzel probably plays that position as well as anyone I’ve seen in college football in some time. We probably play the most press of any team in the league. There’s another reason. I’ve got a video of 28 snaps of Myles Garrett pass-rushes last year where he gets within two steps or less of the quarterback when the ball comes out. Basically, we aren’t covering long enough to let him get to the quarterback. Myles and others—especially [defensive end] Emmanuel Ogbah—will get more chances because of Denzel.” Ogbah, Williams said, was a major reason why the Browns went Ward over Chubb. “Ogbah’s a rising star in this league,” Williams said. “He’s got a chance to be Chubb.” High praise.

#6212173 Rookie Draft Rankings - Top 50

Posted by The Football Guru on 30 April 2018 - 01:07 PM

Just another thought, it's possible that the Ravens are finally seeing Flacco as the mediocre to below average QB I've always thought he's been... but if not, he's still under contract for 4 seasons.  I don't know if I'd put Jackson as the top QB if he may not play for 3 seasons.  Mayfield, Rosen, Darnold, and Allen all have a much faster track to start starting and if I'm using an early 2nd round rookie pick on a QB, I'm going to use it on someone who's going to play sooner rather than later... especially more so if it's only a 1 QB league.


I understand the thought. Flacco is already 33 though and has been league-average at best for the last three years. He is due over $18 M next year and over $20 M in 2020, so the transition to Jackson will be happening sooner than later. Three members of the offensive staff have worked with either Vick or Kaepernick, so I like the commitment the Ravens are making. I also feel Jackson is more complete prospect now than either of those guys were coming out of college, so obviously I think the upside is huge.

#6210869 Instant Fantasy Analysis - WR Tre'Quan Smith, Saints

Posted by The Football Guru on 27 April 2018 - 08:41 PM

Smith dramatically improved his stock at the NFL Combine by running a 4.49 and exploing for a 130-inch broad juimp after leading UCF in receiving in 2017. The 6-2, 203-pounder has very long arms (33 3/8 inches) for a receiver and a good vertical jump (37.5 inches), which makes him yet another weapon in New Orleans' wide receiving corps. Unfortunately, it's hard to imagine him bypassing Michael Thomas, Ted Ginn or Cameron Meredith on the depth chart anytime soon, making him worth avoiding for redraft fantasy purposes. He is also not worth anything more than a third-round pick in rookie drafts.

#6210692 Instant Fantasy Analysis - RB Nick Chubb, Browns

Posted by The Football Guru on 27 April 2018 - 05:25 PM

The Browns get a guy named Chubb one round later than everyone expected. Chubb was the de facto thunder to Sony Michel's lightning throughout their time together at Georgia, but the former is hardly a straight-ahead plodder, just like Michel wasn't a change-of-pace scatback. The Bulldogs' second all-time leading rusher, who checks in at a solid 5-11 and 227 pounds, also displayed pretty good athleticism at the NFL Combine (29 reps on the bench, 4.52 speed, 38.5-inch vertical, 128-inch broad). The good thing with Chubb is that his athleticism shows up on the field and belongs to a player whose feet are typically in synch with his eyes. While he can catch the ball when necessary, 31 receptions over his four-year career - including 13 total over his final three seasons - is a pretty clear indication his new team probably should not expect a great deal from him as a receiver. The landing spot is not a particularly good one either for his fantasy prospects, at least not immediately. Carlos Hyde figures to be the early-down back to begin the season, while Duke Johnson will handle the change-of-pace duties and passing-down responsibilities. For redraft purposes, I could wrap my mind around a pick in the 8-10 round range. In rookie drafts, he's worth considering in the middle part of the first round.

#6209814 Instant Fantasy Analysis - QB Josh Allen, Bills

Posted by The Football Guru on 26 April 2018 - 07:09 PM

As soon as Buffalo completed its trade with Tampa Bay for the No. 7 overall pick, this selection became a previous obvious one. In order for quarterback to succeed in western New York during the winter, he needs arm strength, and Allen has more of that than any player in the draft. The Wyoming product isn't ready to be the Week 1 starter and would be well-served to play behind AJ McCarron for most of the 2018 season to work on his footwork, which will help address the accuracy issues critics seem to believe he cannot overcome. Allen is not necessarily going to tear it up as a rusher, but he can run quarterback power like Cam Newton does and Carson Wentz did in college. Also working in his favor is the fact he has some bigger receivers to throw to in Buffalo, which should also help him with some of the aforementioned accuracy issues in the same way it has helped Newton. Allen doesn't have much redraft appeal, and he figures to go after the rest of the "Big Five" quarterbacks in this draft in dynasty formats.

#6209728 Instant Fantasy Analysis - QB Baker Mayfield, Browns

Posted by The Football Guru on 26 April 2018 - 06:27 PM

Mayfield has been described recently as a more mobile Drew Brees, and that is exactly what he's going to need to be to justify this selection. The 2017 Heisman Trophy winner is as accurate as they come in the short and intermediate range and he can make plays with his legs, but I am of the belief accommodations - such as a heavy use of RPOs (run-pass options) and shotgun - will need to be made in order to help him succeed - not exactly what fans want to hear about a No. 1 overall pick. The good news is that Mayfield is known for his competitiveness and leadership abilities, which may be exactly what the Browns as they try to continue the process of escaping the stench of 1-31 over the last two seasons. Cleveland's upgraded supporting cast and Mayfield's legs should help the former walk-on be a worthy fantasy QB2 the minute he overtakes Tyrod Taylor, but the uncertainty of when that move happens figures to make Mayfield a late-round fantasy pick at best.

#6192171 Doug Orth's Rookie Profiles

Posted by The Football Guru on 31 March 2018 - 12:21 PM

Will there be one for Rashaad Penny?

Yep. Starting on him today.