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The Football Guru

Member Since 05 Feb 2005
Offline Last Active Today, 12:33 AM

#6218009 Dynasty Rankings - Update

Posted by The Football Guru on 08 May 2018 - 02:25 PM

Overall the rankings are great with a few minor things I don't agree 100% with. If we ranked players the same and agreed on everything it would take a lot of fun out playing fantasy football.


Thanks. I'm not taking your remarks as criticism. It's good to have differing opinions.


Believe me, I don't lose sleep over worrying about what potential criticism when I do rankings/analysis. This isn't the right business for people with thin skin  :P

#6212614 Instant Fantasy Analysis - QB Baker Mayfield, Browns

Posted by The Football Guru on 01 May 2018 - 12:40 AM

Let's pretend both Ward amd Chubb become the best at their positions in the NFL.

A top 2 or 3 CB in the league affects opposing offenses by making the offense simply not throw to the receiver they are covering. A top 2 or 3 defensive end in the league causes opposing offenses the need to scheme around various blocking efforts with different personnel on the field for both run and passing downs.

A top defensive end is way more valuable to a defense overall. Basically, top CBs can simply be avoided where great DEs cannot be.


Not going to agree or disagree with this. I think Chubb is the better player, so that is who I would have drafted.


At any rate, I saw/heard where DC Gregg Williams opted for Ward over Chubb for two main reasons: 1) his defenses play more press coverage than any other team and he thought Ward was the best at it in the draft and 2) he seems to be pretty high on Emmanuel Ogbah.


Here's the quote (link):


Sodium pentathol, and defensive coordinator Gregg Williams, came up in the wake of the Denzel Ward pick. Truth serum. My question to Dorsey on Friday morning: “If we gave Gregg Williams sodium pentathol right now, who would he have said he wanted with the fourth pick—Denzel Ward or Bradley Chubb?” Dorsey pulled out his cell phone and rang Williams. I asked him the question. Williams: “Ward. The reason is our need for a press cover cornerback. Denzel probably plays that position as well as anyone I’ve seen in college football in some time. We probably play the most press of any team in the league. There’s another reason. I’ve got a video of 28 snaps of Myles Garrett pass-rushes last year where he gets within two steps or less of the quarterback when the ball comes out. Basically, we aren’t covering long enough to let him get to the quarterback. Myles and others—especially [defensive end] Emmanuel Ogbah—will get more chances because of Denzel.” Ogbah, Williams said, was a major reason why the Browns went Ward over Chubb. “Ogbah’s a rising star in this league,” Williams said. “He’s got a chance to be Chubb.” High praise.

#6212173 Rookie Draft Rankings - Top 50

Posted by The Football Guru on 30 April 2018 - 01:07 PM

Just another thought, it's possible that the Ravens are finally seeing Flacco as the mediocre to below average QB I've always thought he's been... but if not, he's still under contract for 4 seasons.  I don't know if I'd put Jackson as the top QB if he may not play for 3 seasons.  Mayfield, Rosen, Darnold, and Allen all have a much faster track to start starting and if I'm using an early 2nd round rookie pick on a QB, I'm going to use it on someone who's going to play sooner rather than later... especially more so if it's only a 1 QB league.


I understand the thought. Flacco is already 33 though and has been league-average at best for the last three years. He is due over $18 M next year and over $20 M in 2020, so the transition to Jackson will be happening sooner than later. Three members of the offensive staff have worked with either Vick or Kaepernick, so I like the commitment the Ravens are making. I also feel Jackson is more complete prospect now than either of those guys were coming out of college, so obviously I think the upside is huge.

#6210869 Instant Fantasy Analysis - WR Tre'Quan Smith, Saints

Posted by The Football Guru on 27 April 2018 - 08:41 PM

Smith dramatically improved his stock at the NFL Combine by running a 4.49 and exploing for a 130-inch broad juimp after leading UCF in receiving in 2017. The 6-2, 203-pounder has very long arms (33 3/8 inches) for a receiver and a good vertical jump (37.5 inches), which makes him yet another weapon in New Orleans' wide receiving corps. Unfortunately, it's hard to imagine him bypassing Michael Thomas, Ted Ginn or Cameron Meredith on the depth chart anytime soon, making him worth avoiding for redraft fantasy purposes. He is also not worth anything more than a third-round pick in rookie drafts.

#6210692 Instant Fantasy Analysis - RB Nick Chubb, Browns

Posted by The Football Guru on 27 April 2018 - 05:25 PM

The Browns get a guy named Chubb one round later than everyone expected. Chubb was the de facto thunder to Sony Michel's lightning throughout their time together at Georgia, but the former is hardly a straight-ahead plodder, just like Michel wasn't a change-of-pace scatback. The Bulldogs' second all-time leading rusher, who checks in at a solid 5-11 and 227 pounds, also displayed pretty good athleticism at the NFL Combine (29 reps on the bench, 4.52 speed, 38.5-inch vertical, 128-inch broad). The good thing with Chubb is that his athleticism shows up on the field and belongs to a player whose feet are typically in synch with his eyes. While he can catch the ball when necessary, 31 receptions over his four-year career - including 13 total over his final three seasons - is a pretty clear indication his new team probably should not expect a great deal from him as a receiver. The landing spot is not a particularly good one either for his fantasy prospects, at least not immediately. Carlos Hyde figures to be the early-down back to begin the season, while Duke Johnson will handle the change-of-pace duties and passing-down responsibilities. For redraft purposes, I could wrap my mind around a pick in the 8-10 round range. In rookie drafts, he's worth considering in the middle part of the first round.

#6209814 Instant Fantasy Analysis - QB Josh Allen, Bills

Posted by The Football Guru on 26 April 2018 - 07:09 PM

As soon as Buffalo completed its trade with Tampa Bay for the No. 7 overall pick, this selection became a previous obvious one. In order for quarterback to succeed in western New York during the winter, he needs arm strength, and Allen has more of that than any player in the draft. The Wyoming product isn't ready to be the Week 1 starter and would be well-served to play behind AJ McCarron for most of the 2018 season to work on his footwork, which will help address the accuracy issues critics seem to believe he cannot overcome. Allen is not necessarily going to tear it up as a rusher, but he can run quarterback power like Cam Newton does and Carson Wentz did in college. Also working in his favor is the fact he has some bigger receivers to throw to in Buffalo, which should also help him with some of the aforementioned accuracy issues in the same way it has helped Newton. Allen doesn't have much redraft appeal, and he figures to go after the rest of the "Big Five" quarterbacks in this draft in dynasty formats.

#6209728 Instant Fantasy Analysis - QB Baker Mayfield, Browns

Posted by The Football Guru on 26 April 2018 - 06:27 PM

Mayfield has been described recently as a more mobile Drew Brees, and that is exactly what he's going to need to be to justify this selection. The 2017 Heisman Trophy winner is as accurate as they come in the short and intermediate range and he can make plays with his legs, but I am of the belief accommodations - such as a heavy use of RPOs (run-pass options) and shotgun - will need to be made in order to help him succeed - not exactly what fans want to hear about a No. 1 overall pick. The good news is that Mayfield is known for his competitiveness and leadership abilities, which may be exactly what the Browns as they try to continue the process of escaping the stench of 1-31 over the last two seasons. Cleveland's upgraded supporting cast and Mayfield's legs should help the former walk-on be a worthy fantasy QB2 the minute he overtakes Tyrod Taylor, but the uncertainty of when that move happens figures to make Mayfield a late-round fantasy pick at best.

#6192171 Doug Orth's Rookie Profiles

Posted by The Football Guru on 31 March 2018 - 12:21 PM

Will there be one for Rashaad Penny?

Yep. Starting on him today.

#6112611 Final All Out Blitz of the season

Posted by The Football Guru on 23 December 2017 - 03:44 AM

Hate to be the late-comer, but in a non-ppr standard scoring league, would you trot out Funchess (great matchup and could go off, but shoulder concern, and TB held him to nothing in last meeting), or Westbrook (who I have been pimping all year, and although had an extreme let-down game last week, could eat tomorrow with M. Lee out and Hurns a question mark)?


Thank you, sir.


Wow, tough call. The shoulder is enough to steer me off of Funchess. Even if I'm right and JAC-SF turns into a field goal bonanza, I can see Westbrook having himself a day. I was lucky to escape his down game in all of the leagues I started him last week, but I don't think we can let one oddball game steer us away from how good of a player he is.

#6112608 Final All Out Blitz of the season

Posted by The Football Guru on 23 December 2017 - 03:03 AM

Thank you so much for that in depth analysis. I will ponder every word before I make my decision.

I’m not sure this is the place to ask a follow up question, so I will put it here and in the comments section. I noticed when you were analyzing SHEPARD you did not mention Patrick Peterson shadowing Shepard even though he clearly is the Giants best WR, albeit used mostly out of the slot. Does PP NEVER cover opposing teams best WR when running out of the slot? Has he never covered Doug Baldwin? Thanks again.


I'll answer it in both places. Shepard is inside 84 percent of the time. PP has lined up in the slot 12 percent of the time this year. Mathieu has played inside 93 percent of the time.


Knowing the Giants, this will be the game where OC Mike Sullivan decides to get all creative and play Shepard outside more. But the evidence this year suggests PP and Shepard will probably line up across from each other on five or six routes at the most.

#6100403 Ricky Seals-Jones, you buyin'?

Posted by The Football Guru on 09 December 2017 - 09:41 PM

I don't know if there are other folks in a similar predicament this week, but I'm putting my money where my mouth is:


RSJ is going to get the start for me over Kareem Hunt in my flex in the one high-stakes league I have to set a lineup for this week. Aaron Jones, Mike Davis and Dede Westbrook are other options I'm going to sit in favor of RSJ. (How I wish GB would just make this an easy decision for me and go with Jones this week ...)


I've wrestled with it all week long, and here is the conclusion I've reached in regards to RSJ vs. Hunt. The Chiefs are taking Hunt off the field in two-minute drills and passing downs in favor of West, meaning Hunt has become mostly an early-down back running behind a o-line who always seems to have one guy blow an assignment and is attached to a team with a defense that is struggling to stop anyone.


Back in September, Hunt dominated the fourth quarter. Over the last two weeks combined. he has seen a total of nine touches in the second half, including two in Week 13. This has happened despite the fact KC hasn't trailed by more than seven points in either game, so there hasn't been much commitment to the running game either.

#6062466 Kareem Hunt...sell or hold?

Posted by The Football Guru on 26 October 2017 - 10:24 PM

I don't think it is merely coincidence Hunt's big plays have dropped dramatically with OG Laurent Duvernay-Tardif (last three games) and C Mitch Morse (last five) out due to injury. Both could return this week.

#6056814 K. Benjamin's Knee and Funchess

Posted by The Football Guru on 20 October 2017 - 01:04 AM

Benjamin not practicing again today (Thurs).  I read somewhere that if he played Benjamin would be facing the better of the 2 CHI CBs and Funchess would actually have the better matchup.  Generally speaking, if a #1 WR sits does the CB assigned to him suddenly cover the #2 WR (Funchess), or does that CB just cover someone else?


The majority of defenses put their CBs on one side of the defense and keep them there. KC and Marcus Peters is an example that comes immediately to mind.


Per PFF's Shadow Coverage Matrix, here are the only CBs who have shadowed consistently this year:


Patrick Peterson

Darius Slay

Xavier Rhodes

Janoris Jenkins

Morris Claiborne


Of that group, only Peterson, Rhodes and Jenkins could be considered "giant killers." Slay and Claiborne are above average and are tough matchups for non-elite receivers, but they are not "avoid at all costs" kind of matchups for those same wideouts.

#6056813 Drop McFadden for Corey Davis

Posted by The Football Guru on 20 October 2017 - 12:54 AM

None of the WAS receivers have registered anything appreciable on the fantasy relevance meter this year. The FFToday standard scoring pages show their highest WR for the season as Ryan Grant at the WR62. We expected more from Pryor, Crowder & company. So something may be wrong with the Redskins system and one might be advised to not hold much confidence that Doctson can shine in it either.


TEN's done a little better with Rishard Matthews as the WR29 (I should note that TEN has had 6 games so far but WAS only 5) and Decker looks to be coming on. The Titans may utilize Davis more effectively than the Redskins will utilize Doctson.


[Edit: I didn't take Chris Thompson into account when assessing WAS. The portion of his production from receiving would make him the WR22. Fwiw, Vernon Davis would be the WR58]


I just did a bit of research in response to an e-mailer's question. The following is paraphrasing what I wrote him. I think it goes a long way in explaining the problems owners are having regarding Washington receivers:


Since the opener, no Redskin has attracted more than seven targets (both times, it was Chris Thompson with seven). I frankly cannot remember ever seeing a team go four straight games without giving at least one player more than seven targets. FWIW, seven targets is my cutoff as far as what typically separates average fantasy WRs from the higher-end ones. For the most part, receivers cannot consistently thrive unless they are getting more than seven targets.

#6052916 N.Y. Giants at Denver: In-Game Discussion/Tilting

Posted by The Football Guru on 15 October 2017 - 08:07 PM

This game ...


1) How is Talib not guarding Engram?


2) Instead of avoiding Jenkins and targeting a struggling Apple or a slot CB (Cockrell) not used to playing the slot, the Broncos are targeting Jenkins and avoiding Apple/Cockrell. Guess you can target Jackrabbit only so many times before he comes back and bites you.


The first-half game plan was an abomination. The Broncos are coming off a bye for goodness sake.


From a selfish (fantasy analyst) standpoint, this game is the kind that drives you absolutely crazy.