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gitrdun

Barkley?

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Saw a report that Barkley has gotten paid. He is now the 4th highest paid RB in the league with out playing a game. Why am I thinking JaMarcus Russell?

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25 carries? Hell no! But 20+ total touches? Absolutely.

Okay 25 touches, with top 5 WR, top 5 TE, and Shepard, Eli ranked 23rd QB projection wise. Someones gonna be disappointed this year rather its the receivers or Barkley unless 3-13 from last year is 13-3 this year barring injury.

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Very bad defense and a very bad oline does not bode well for an RB.

 

It's not that bad of an OLine. It's probably on the lesser side of average. Still, Barkley is also effective in the passing game, so if the running game isn't working that day and gets say 12 carries for 31 yards... he still might 6 receptions for 82 yards. I'll 17+ point day from my RB1 on a "down week", especially considering that only 6 RB's averaged at least 17 ppg game last year.

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Okay 25 touches, with top 5 WR, top 5 TE, and Shepard, Eli ranked 23rd QB projection wise. Someones gonna be disappointed this year rather its the receivers or Barkley unless 3-13 from last year is 13-3 this year barring injury.

 

Yes, every prediction is "barring injury", for most players. Who is the most likely to be disappointed? Well, let's look at the RB situation in NY last year. With Gallman, Vereen, Darkwa, and Perkins, the Giants backfield combined for 368 rushes and 149 pass targets, that's a total of 517, which averages out to 32 per game. Vereen, Darkwa, and Perkins are gone but Jonathan Stewart is now there. Let's say that Stewart (who averaged 13 touches per game), gets 8 touches and Gallman (who averaged 10), gets 3. Why? Because 1) Stewart isn't a pass catcher and never really was and 2) because Gallman is now the 3rd string guy - how many touches do most 3rd stringers get on a team who has a star RB1? Last year in LA, the RB's behind Gurley totaled only 6 targets per game. In Pittsburgh, their RB's other than Bell averaged only 4. In KC, backups averaged less than 2. In Dallas, their RB's averaged 3.5 per game, in the 10 that Elliott played. I'm giving the Giants backfield 11! So, that alone gives Barkley 21 touches if they keep their number the same.

 

Let's look at the receivers. Who will be the most disappointed? We'll first need to figure out what Beckham will get. He's been around 160 in years past). FFToday is projecting about 150 (I go by their 92 reception projection and assume that's 60% catch rate like in his average over his last 35 games. Another site (FantasyGuru.com), has him at 93 receptions. ESPN is projecting 99. So, the average is about 150 targets. Well, if it's 150, that's 110 more than last year. I can come up with 100 pretty quick. I think it's safe to say that Engram will probably drop to about 70 targets, so there's 45. I'm thinking we can also assume that Lewis will take a huge hits as well, about 40. So now we made up 85 of the 120. Sheppard will probably drop about 15. There you go, that's 100 of the 110 needed to get him to 150.

So, I have the Giants offense being as bad as it was last year and found 150 targets for Beckham and 21 per game for Barkley. If you think that a healthy Beckham plus a talent in Barkley will upgrade their offense, can't you see another 4 to 5 touches for Barkley and 10+ more targets for Beckham? I can.

 

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Very bad defense and a very bad oline does not bode well for an RB.

I truly think the O line will be better. by acquiring solder and drafting Hernandez(who I felt was a first round talent) with the second pick of round 2. I think both will be immediate upgrades to what they had there. I wouldnt be surprised if they threw him in on the left side beside solder so that the pro bowl LT can mentor the kid.

 

That being said, they have also Lost JPP in free agency, so I think the D wont be as good.

 

I do think a more effective offense will take some pressure off the D so those games where they gave up a lot of second half points may not be so bad (just because the D wont be on the field as much by that point in the game)

 

I'm still predicting a losing season but I have no doubt they will be better than what we all saw last year.

 

I'm thinking a 5-8 or 6-10 record. the team could improve further but a lot of things would need to go right for that to happen.

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So my projection of Eli being top 10 QB is a shoe-in ?

Waiting for my answer TBay, you put in the time to justify your stance but omitted this part.

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Waiting for my answer TBay, you put in the time to justify your stance but omitted this part.

 

Eli a "shoe-in" for top 10? No, but it doesn't mean he can't get that high. I'd put him in the 11-15 range. In a 2 QB league, I am absolutely targeting him as my #2. In a 1 QB league, I'll be satisfied if I have him as my QB1, knowing that I got him super late. I would rather target other guys as my QB1 earlier, but if I got Eli in one of the last 2 or 3 rounds and he's my #1, I won't be upset at all. I think 4000 yards and 28 TD's is a legit possibility. That would probably put him just outside of the top 5 when it comes to passing, but I think projecting him to less than 10 points from a rushing perspective is likely overly generous, so that's where he's going to drop in the overall rankings. There are too many other QB's who will get a lot of points rushing.

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agreed. in a 2 QB league he is a solid #2 option.

 

in a 1 QB league, I'd rank him as one of the top backups and may be good for spot starts when he plays against teams with weak defenses and a good offense.

 

 

 

Eli a "shoe-in" for top 10? No, but it doesn't mean he can't get that high. I'd put him in the 11-15 range. In a 2 QB league, I am absolutely targeting him as my #2. In a 1 QB league, I'll be satisfied if I have him as my QB1, knowing that I got him super late. I would rather target other guys as my QB1 earlier, but if I got Eli in one of the last 2 or 3 rounds and he's my #1, I won't be upset at all. I think 4000 yards and 28 TD's is a legit possibility. That would probably put him just outside of the top 5 when it comes to passing, but I think projecting him to less than 10 points from a rushing perspective is likely overly generous, so that's where he's going to drop in the overall rankings. There are too many other QB's who will get a lot of points rushing.

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Sometimes i crack myself up, you talk so much you back yourselves into a corner. Eli went from Peyton with no arm to being a possible starter. I stood up for him with the weapons he has and now your going to own it. :doublethumbsup:

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Sometimes i crack myself up, you talk so much you back yourselves into a corner. Eli went from Peyton with no arm to being a possible starter. I stood up for him with the weapons he has and now your going to own it. :doublethumbsup:

 

I'm on record as saying that he is fools gold, although at his current ADP a guy ain't out much.

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I'm on record as saying that he is fools gold, although at his current ADP a guy ain't out much.

All that work Tbay put in, i knew he dug his hole when he wrote it.---ADP is 23, i think Peyton can challenge him.

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All that work Tbay put in, i knew he dug his hole when he wrote it.---ADP is 23, i think Peyton can challenge him.

Dug my whole? What are you talking about?

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Sometimes i crack myself up, you talk so much you back yourselves into a corner. Eli went from Peyton with no arm to being a possible starter. I stood up for him with the weapons he has and now your going to own it. :doublethumbsup:

projecting him to be ranked between #12 and #16 is hardly a glowing endorsement. also if you look back at my posts on this guy I have always said a large part of his problem is that his line is crappy.

 

While they have not fully solved that problem, they have 2 new players who will be a huge improvement to what they had last year.

 

Last year LT was a major problem and this year they have solder who is an pro bowl player. they also got a guy with the second pick of round 2 who I think was a first round talent. Also, the presence of Barkley (who is a threat running the ball) will slow the pass rush somewhat too. Teams can no longer key on the pass. if these changes mean Eli gets a half second more to make a throw, I'm predicting a far better season for him.

 

I stand by my commment that he should be a top tier backup QB in 1 QB leagues and the second starter in leagues where you start 2 QB.

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The difference between QB 12 and QB 16 is about 2 points a game in a lot of leagues. You can use an early round pick on a top 7 or 8 guy or wait until the end and grab two 12-24 guys and play matchups.

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Hard to pass him when we saw every rookie RB blow up last year. I’d prefer him in the 2nd rnd or else you are already paying for the breakout that might not even come.

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Hard to pass him when we saw every rookie RB blow up last year. I’d prefer him in the 2nd rnd or else you are already paying for the breakout that might not even come.

You're drafting him close to his ceiling, but isn't every first rounder being drafted near their ceiling?

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The difference between QB 12 and QB 16 is about 2 points a game in a lot of leagues. You can use an early round pick on a top 7 or 8 guy or wait until the end and grab two 12-24 guys and play matchups.

I usually lose 1 or 2 games a year by a few points and even more important my competition gets a victory. With that said I like the cookie cutter drafters here that say last 2 rounds for a kicker and defense. By round 10 I have about a half dozen I value about the same and I can pick the top kicker and defense that I want before everyone knowing fully well I'm covered till the end for a few more extra points.

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Oline cant be worse. Theyve made upgrades and McAdoo doo is gone. Barkley wil be do great imo

The O line has been terrible in NY for years. This season could potentially be the best line play they've seen in at least 5 years. and if they can effectively run the ball, that will immediately help too.

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I think if he is there at the 8th spot in ppr, I will pick him. In my other league I have the 5th round. I do not feel comfortable picking him there.

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Can he catch? I’m really into him and the giants offense this season, it’s loaded.

He is regarded as an exceptional pass catcher and good at picking up the blitz, a three down back.

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He is regarded as an exceptional pass catcher and good at picking up the blitz, a three down back.

Dang, if he can pass protect it will be hard to take him out of the game.

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Dang, if he can pass protect it will be hard to take him out of the game.

I can also see him being a good outlet option for when the blocking breaks down too.

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I can also see him being a good outlet option for when the blocking breaks down too.

Wow. Barkley is becoming the greatest RB ever.

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Sarcasm aside the Hype on him is a little over the top. I think it was curtis martin who recently compared Barkley to a cross between Jim Brown, Barry Sanders and Eric Dickerson. Give me a break, let the kid play first...

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Sarcasm aside the Hype on him is a little over the top. I think it was curtis martin who recently compared Barkley to a cross between Jim Brown, Barry Sanders and Eric Dickerson. Give me a break, let the kid play first...

Wait, Dickerson said Barkley is David Johnson?

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