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Mike FF Today

First Quarter Projections - AFC/NFC North

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Last week it was the East. This week, Doug tackles the North.

 

Loving the matcup analysis section of these pieces. Here's a sample on Forsett and the Ravens...

 

Matchup analysis: One of the worst things an incoming play-caller can do is scrap part or all of an offense that worked well for his predecessor, so give Trestman some credit for keeping Kubiak’s zone-run scheme in place. Just as it was for Matt Forte over the last two years in Chicago, run-game volume may be an issue for Forsett, but Trestman loves to get (and keep) his backs involved as receivers. It is that balance – along with very little chance that Baltimore will use a committee at his position – that should allow Forsett to enjoy another career season, at least from a total-yardage perspective. The return of his entire offensive line and relatively light schedule should help him as well since I count only three yellow matchups (and no reds) through his first 10 games. In a lot of ways (projected rookie starters at receiver and tight end combined with an aging receiver), this year is setting up as a bit of a perfect storm for Forsett. Against teams like St. Louis and Seattle in which running the ball may be difficult, it is not to imagine that he is Flacco’s first look against a fierce pass rush. Against the bulk of Baltimore’s schedule, however, the front five should win the battle in the trenches on a regular basis. Allen was drafted because he can catch and block well more than he was to split carries with Forsett, so it would be an upset if he sees more than 20 percent of the backfield’s total touches. Taliaferro may or may not be the goal-line back, so it would seem Forsett should be able to count on at least 70 percent of the action – barring injury, of course – and makes for a very safe and high-upside fantasy RB2.

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Wow, I missed this one--is it not linked on the front page? Anyway, I so want to believe in Kyle Rudolph after last year's disappointment...hard to, though. Still, he's basically free this season, so I can see myself investing if I miss out on Eifert or ASJ (both of whom seem to be climbing, climbing, climbing).

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Doug, you've rounded out the wine collection. For me this is shaping up as a south north draft year.

 

Looking back at your 2014 big boards what were the big surprises, what worked like you thought and how does that knowledge affect 2015?

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Let me make some headway on the new and (hopefully) improved Big Boards and I'll answer your questions once I feel comfortable where I am.

 

Large scale, the changes I made this year are to quantify (and actually score) the variables that I used to do in my head. I feel like I let a bit of a breaking news here or a good preseason performance there sway me in the wrong direction with a player projection in the past. Before, I only had to go in and bump up a game projection or two in order to move a player up on the board. Now, I have scored the 6-7 most important variables (as they relate to FF production), which not only reminds what I initially thought of the player but also reduces the importance of nailing the projection.

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