2015 Fantasy Football Bust (!).. yet Sleeper (?)... TB WR Mike Evans

[football is life 0]

I've done a lot of reading, and I can't decide if the pro-Mike Evans talk is real or not. It does NOT seem to be coming from fantasy football rookies who do not know better, but it could be savvy veterans just trying to pump him up so another player they really want falls to them in their draft.

 

I have a hard time going for a guy whose previous season success was based on TDs alone. Reduce the TDs, and you've got a 68 reception WR with barely a 1,000 yards. TDs are volatile. Now you've got a rookie QB in the mix. Receptions and yards are a much better indicator of success. If the TDs come with it, then you've got a super star on your hands, but I don't bank on TDs alone.

 

So I did a search, and I stumbled on this. I tend to agree with many of the points made about Evans being a bust in 2015:

 

http://www.footballdocs.com/fantasy_football_busts.html

 

Here's the counterpoint saying Mike Evans is a sleeper in 2015:

 

http://sportsmind11.sportsblog.com/posts/2471544/early-fantasy-sleepers-for-the-2015-16-season.html

 

I have a hard time buying the sleeper angle, but I differ to the board for thoughts. Would like to see both pro-Evans and anti-Evans takes. Should be fun. Discuss.

[BufordT 371]

He's going in the top 30 in a few of the drafts I've seen so far. That's a little too early for my liking. I would probably rank him a little higher if the underrated Mike Glennon was named the starter instead of Winston. He had a couple of stud-ly games mid year then was kind of pedestrian after that which makes me think he can be game planned for. Bottom line......avoid unless he's there in the 5th round.

[BobSanders_33 127]

Its hard to call Mike Evans a sleeper since he is going at WR12 and that is about his ceiling. I think he will finish around that spot but can't see him cracking the top 6 WRs that would make him a value.

[Flgatorguy87 160]

Its hard to call Mike Evans a sleeper since he is going at WR12 and that is about his ceiling. I think he will finish around that spot but can't see him cracking the top 6 WRs that would make him a value.

Agree with this. I think you are paying full price for him. I'd rather get him at a little value so he has a little room in case he doesn't hit his ceiling that your banking on.

[stonewall 647]

Nah, he's gonna suck. I wouldn't draft him.

 

I would wait and draft Marvin Jones in the last round, who is a TD machine.

 

[tanatastic 2,061]

Weve actually talked a lot about Mike today in 3 threads or so. We all know he's good and Winston divides people. Some understandably don't want to tie a high pick to an unknown commodity like a rookie qb. Others see Winston as at least as good or better than the bums they trotted out last year when Evans found some success.

 

I've been high on him but I think I'm starting to see Evans a bit more clearly. I think he will be one of those highly volatile plays that the final stats won't tell the whole story. For example, a wr could be dogging it all year then have a couple huge games in a row and he's now top 10. I expect some 40yd games and then a 150 2td gm out of the blue. I don't think it's realistic to expect him to be consistent with other viable options around him and a rookie at qb.

Nah, he's gonna suck. I wouldn't draft him.

 

I would wait and draft Marvin Jones in the last round, who is a TD machine.

 

Lol how long is Marvin going to ride that fluke 4 td game? Crikey.

[Vikings4ever 496]

I think Winston is going to bust hard as an NFL QB, but I think he has a surprisingly good FF season. Questionable running game, and no defense means he going to need to throw a LOT. And Winston had his best year with big Kelvin Benjamin, who compares pretty closely to Evans.

 

I don't think Evans has much of a chance to outperform his draft position, but I don't think he'll bust.

[stonewall 647]

Lol how long is Marvin going to ride that fluke 4 td game? Crikey.

 

Definitely longer than Flynn rode that 6 TD game!

[football is life 0]

Flgatorguy87, Bob_Sanders33, and BufordT:

 

I agree. Evans is a little confusing as the hype out there is pretty high. We've had players in the past land a big TD year, and the next season fall on their face because they had nothing really else to comeback to (again receptions and yards). James Jones comes to mind when playing with the Packers.

 

Given the hype, there is no way Evans "slides" in any draft. It's just not going to happen. It's just confusing because he is holding (and at one point growing) in his average draft value. I tried to paste the graph from fantasyfootballcalculator but couldn't make it happen. Here's the link and just check the box to the right of Evans name to see his ADP as a function of time:

 

https://fantasyfootballcalculator.com/adp.php?format=standard&year=2015&teams=10&view=graph&pos=all

 

 

For those that don't feel like doing all of that, basically it's fluctuating between 3.04 and 3.05 (12 team league) based on ~700 mock drafts.

[Flgatorguy87 160]

I think his situation is different in that he's a highly skilled player coming in the league, had a strong rookie campaign, and seems to be the incumbent taking over for the aging veteran.

 

That being said I've been avoiding the tier of receivers he is in (Hilton, Hopkins, Evans) due to my fear of up and down weeks. 6/120/2 is awesome in a week but 3/39 will cause problems in your lineup the next week. He's also being kept in my main money league so that takes care of that for me.

[wicked joe 0]

I think Evans will be good this season, but not at his price. I think Vincent Jackson is being discounted too much. He is the guy I am targeting in this offense at his number. Way too many fantasy sites seem to be caught up with Evans' TD potential. I heard one podcast say his floor was 10 TDs. Ahem! I doubt that . The Evans love has gone too far for me, so I will be perfectly happy targeting Jackson late to give me WR depth than counting on Evans with a 2nd or early 3rd round pick.

 

Evans Current Price = Bust

[weepaws 2,452]

I think Evans will be good this season, but not at his price. I think Vincent Jackson is being discounted too much. He is the guy I am targeting in this offense at his number. Way too many fantasy sites seem to be caught up with Evans' TD potential. I heard one podcast say his floor was 10 TDs. Ahem! I doubt that . The Evans love has gone too far for me, so I will be perfectly happy targeting Jackson late to give me WR depth than counting on Evans with a 2nd or early 3rd round pick.

 

Evans Current Price = Bust

Agree with you I like that I have been reading they are using Jackson in the slot that's a young qbs best friend . Yea same for me I want to target Jackson late and pass on a second yr wr and rookie qb combo early .

[NEWPOSTERGUY! 266]

Agree with you I like that I have been reading they are using Jackson in the slot that's a young qbs best friend . Yea same for me I want to target Jackson late and pass on a second yr wr and rookie qb combo early .

agree with all this, and add ASJ as a nice late round gem of a tight end

[redsrback 30]

• Think I would rather take a risk with Amari cooper although crabtree is making some noise.

[stonewall 647]

agree with all this, and add ASJ as a nice late round gem of a tight end

 

Watch out for ASJ. Camp reports have him struggling, and Timothy (Touch Down) Wright is back in town.

[tanatastic 2,061]

 

Watch out for ASJ. Camp reports have him struggling, and Timothy (Touch Down) Wright is back in town.

Ah ASJ, the latest Ertzian, Jordan Reedian hype te who wont do jack. Funny they brought Tim back in after shipping him out of town and having him do jack in NE. Although a TE is a rookie qbs best friend so maybe together they will be productive.

[weepaws 2,452]

Funny about this ASJ because I read he is doing good now he is not . It's all camp talk I'm waiting to see what happens on the field .

[football is life 0]

Funny about this ASJ because I read he is doing good now he is not . It's all camp talk I'm waiting to see what happens on the field .

 

Problem with that weepaws is that by the time you wait to see what happens on the field... it's too late and ASJ (or any other player showing good production) is already on someone else's roster and not available. The trick is picking those players BEFORE they show it on the field. That's why time spent on the FFToday board is very important, as well as time reading the content on FFToday.

[MDC 5,878]

I like Evans as a 1,100-1,200 yard / 8-10 TD type. I've got him right around Hilton, Deandre, Sanders and Matthews just outside the top 10 at receiver.

 

Winston doesn't scare me too much because the QB situation was awful last year for TB and Winston is a bit of a mad bomber. The Bucs will be playing catch up a lot this year and Evans / VJax will be the main beneficiaries.

[weepaws 2,452]

Problem with that weepaws is that by the time you wait to see what happens on the field... it's too late and ASJ (or any other player showing good production) is already on someone else's roster and not available. The trick is picking those players BEFORE they show it on the field. That's why time spent on the FFToday board is very important, as well as time reading the content on FFToday.

 

That depends on when you draft .

[wicked joe 0]

All the ASJ love. All the Bucs offense looks a little shaky based on how bad that offense has looked in the preseason. Winston looked like a ROOK in a big way. I don't anything on the Bucs unless I am getting a deal. Evans is not a deal. I'll pass. No ASJ either. I am sure I will have a plethora of other options to choose from.

 

I'll admit that Doug Martin looks like he is rebounding, but I am sure it is the sucker before the punch.

[weepaws 2,452]

All the ASJ love. All the Bucs offense looks a little shaky based on how bad that offense has looked in the preseason. Winston looked like a ROOK in a big way. I don't anything on the Bucs unless I am getting a deal. Evans is not a deal. I'll pass. No ASJ either. I am sure I will have a plethora of other options to choose from.

 

I'll admit that Doug Martin looks like he is rebounding, but I am sure it is the sucker before the punch.

We all know the qb is the key to any team , and right now Winston has a lot of learning to do .