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Selling High on CJ Spiller?

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I was thinking about the idea that after week 1, many owners overreact to players overperforming and underperforming. I want to use this to my advantage.

 

CJ Spiller seems like the perfect "sell high" candidate, a guy who had a monster statistical game and should be in line for work for 4-6 weeks. But once Fred Jackson comes back, his value has to come down. To me, that mean's you have to trade him for equal value before his stock drops, which we know it will.

 

In addition to desperate Fred Jackson owners, there are plenty of teams who would welcome extra RB help, so it's not gonna be hard to find someone that will take Spiller. My question, though, is what would you consider good value for "selling high" on CJ Spiller? Name some players that you would swap for Spiller right now so I can get a sense of where people are currently valuing him.

 

Could you net a guy on the level of an Antonio Brown, Eric Decker, or any of the other high upside WR2's? I'm very curious to know if any of you have actually traded him yet.

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I was thinking about the idea that after week 1, many owners overreact to players overperforming and underperforming. I want to use this to my advantage.

 

CJ Spiller seems like the perfect "sell high" candidate, a guy who had a monster statistical game and should be in line for work for 4-6 weeks. But once Fred Jackson comes back, his value has to come down. To me, that mean's you have to trade him for equal value before his stock drops, which we know it will.

 

In addition to desperate Fred Jackson owners, there are plenty of teams who would welcome extra RB help, so it's not gonna be hard to find someone that will take Spiller. My question, though, is what would you consider good value for "selling high" on CJ Spiller? Name some players that you would swap for Spiller right now so I can get a sense of where people are currently valuing him.

 

Could you net a guy on the level of an Antonio Brown, Eric Decker, or any of the other high upside WR2's? I'm very curious to know if any of you have actually traded him yet.

His value may go up more. Jackson's MRI couldn't even be properly read because of too much swelling. It could very easily come out later this week that he's done for the year.

 

You're selling short with Brown or Decker.

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I have been on the spiller bandwagon for a while now. This is the situation i have been waiting for. He did this against the jets dude. They have a very good run d yet spiller gained a total of 194 yarda and a 56 yard td. He is electric. What makes you think this is a fluke for him? He showed us last year what he was capable of. Fjax is 31 and probably has a bad nough i jury to keep him out for a few weeks. When You have a guy like spiller on your team you utilize his insane skill. You dont throw the 31 year old inferior rb out there and give him the majority of the touches, especially after a knee sprain.

 

Ya know what. I hope you do trade him for the great antonio brown and want to punch yourself in the face infront of your wife and kids when spiller is tearing up the league.

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Also interested in this.

I have FJax and Spiller and can afford to cash out on Spiller (Have McCoy, D. Brown, and Almo).

My concern is that when FJax comes back, it will be RBBC, killing both of their value.

I don't doubt Spiller's skills...I just think they won't relegate FJax to backup when he is healthy again.

So if I can cash out on Spiller now, I won't have to deal with it.

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His value may go up more. Jackson's MRI couldn't even be properly read because of too much swelling. It could very easily come out later this week that he's done for the year.

 

You're selling short with Brown or Decker.

If he is dine for the year i wouldnt trade him for anything less than a stud rb because thats what he is. Tell me why he wont succeed in buffalo if he is the starting rb? You cant. You have no idea how to evaluate talent if you honearly believe spiller isnt worth holding on to.

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You're selling short with Brown or Decker.

 

Wow, really? For sake of comparison, what WRs do you think his value is closer to? Maybe I overvalue Decker and Brown, but how much better of a WR is anyone really gonna give for Spiller?

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True about the MRI.

 

Guess we should hold him until we get definative results on the extent of Fred's injury.

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Also interested in this.

I have FJax and Spiller and can afford to cash out on Spiller (Have McCoy, D. Brown, and Almo).

My concern is that when FJax comes back, it will be RBBC, killing both of their value.

I don't doubt Spiller's skills...I just think they won't relegate FJax to backup when he is healthy again.

So if I can cash out on Spiller now, I won't have to deal with it.

If you want to end up in the thread about making bad trades, trade away spiller. I will be there laughing at everyone.

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True about the MRI.

 

Guess we should hold him until we get definative results on the extent of Fred's injury.

 

Yea I would definitely wait and see the definitive results before doing anything drastic. I'm a Bills fan and watched every snap yesterday. Dude looked good! He's always had the speed but I saw some toughness breaking a couple tackles and hitting the holes hard. Freddy Jax wasn't doing much before he got hurt and even if/when he comes back I see nothing less then a 50/50 split.

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I have been on the spiller bandwagon for a while now. This is the situation i have been waiting for. He did this against the jets dude. They have a very good run d yet spiller gained a total of 194 yarda and a 56 yard td. He is electric. What makes you think this is a fluke for him? He showed us last year what he was capable of. Fjax is 31 and probably has a bad nough i jury to keep him out for a few weeks. When You have a guy like spiller on your team you utilize his insane skill. You dont throw the 31 year old inferior rb out there and give him the majority of the touches, especially after a knee sprain.

 

Ya know what. I hope you do trade him for the great antonio brown and want to punch yourself in the face infront of your wife and kids when spiller is tearing up the league.

 

Haha, I'm with you man. I love CJ Spiller and targeted him in every draft because I knew he is a special talent who was very close to getting big opportunity, which is an obvious sign of a breakout. I didn't think his performances were flukes last year when FJax went down, nor did I ever say that. I merely said that when FJax comes back, his value has to come down. How could it not? So it would be prudent to swap him for equal value now before the stock lowers, that's all Im suggesting. If Jackson's out for the season of course that doesnt apply. Not a knock on Spiller at all, Im a big fan of his talent.

 

And would you be as adamant about your stance if you had 3 RBs on your roster that would be must starts every week and Spiller wouldnt see your lineup anyway? Not a lot of people in that boat but we're out there.

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And would you be as adamant about your stance if you had 3 RBs on your roster that would be must starts every week and Spiller wouldnt see your lineup anyway? Not a lot of people in that boat but we're out there.

 

 

I hear ya... I have McFadden, Forte, D. Martin and Spiller... I am sorely wishing I would have drafted J. Graham in the 2nd now!

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I'd wait.

 

1) We still don't know what the time-table is for Jackson, or the severity of the injury.

 

2) Bills next two matchups are the Chiefs and the Browns. Spiller should do well in those games as the focal point of the offense, which should increase his value.

 

As a Spiller owner, I want more info first. Hell, they may come out and say FJax is done for the year - at that point, I might just want to hold onto Spiller and forget selling him at all.

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I'd wait.

 

1) We still don't know what the time-table is for Jackson, or the severity of the injury.

 

2) Bills next two matchups are the Chiefs and the Browns. Spiller should do well in those games as the focal point of the offense, which should increase his value.

 

As a Spiller owner, I want more info first. Hell, they may come out and say FJax is done for the year - at that point, I might just want to hold onto Spiller and forget selling him at all.

 

I'm leaning towards this. I'll have 3 sure fire RBs to play all @ once (2 RBs & a flex). If one goes down due to injury, I still have two great ones to fill the 2 RB spots.

 

I think these next 2 weeks will give Jackson owners time to see how much Jackson meant to their team and realize they need him which could increase the value of Spiller.

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jackson is out 3-8 weeks. spiller is the real deal and with games vs KC and CLE, he will play himself into the starting lineup for good. he is better than fjax, period.

 

 

fred jackson is dead to me.

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Spiller is just too good and way too damn fast. Hes young and fresh whereas Jackson is wearing down. You give Spiller a small opening he will take it and he will go for big yards. With a 4.27 in the 40 thats one of the fastest in the nfl.

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As a Spiller owner, I want more info first. Hell, they may come out and say FJax is done for the year - at that point, I might just want to hold onto Spiller and forget selling him at all.

 

Absolutely agree that it's too early to pull the trigger on anything. Spiller's stock can only go higher over the next 4 weeks unless he looks absolutely terrible against the chiefs and browns, which would be a shocker. If I do end up trading Spiller, I'm hoping it'll be after another solid games heading into week 4. By then his value could be high enough to land a stud WR, which is something that could help a lot of people who suddenly have more RB depth than they know what to do with.

 

jackson is out 3-8 weeks. spiller is the real deal and with games vs KC and CLE, he will play himself into the starting lineup for good. he is better than fjax, period.

 

I saw the La Canfora bit that suggested 4-6 weeks at minimum, but that's not a medical evaluation and was just his estimation. Where are you getting 3-8?

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Absolutely agree that it's too early to pull the trigger on anything. Spiller's stock can only go higher over the next 4 weeks unless he looks absolutely terrible against the chiefs and browns, which would be a shocker. If I do end up trading Spiller, I'm hoping it'll be after another solid games heading into week 4. By then his value could be high enough to land a stud WR, which is something that could help a lot of people who suddenly have more RB depth than they know what to do with.

 

 

 

I saw the La Canfora bit that suggested 4-6 weeks at minimum, but that's not a medical evaluation and was just his estimation. Where are you getting 3-8?

 

I read they need to do another MRI after the swelling goes down.

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Might as well hold on to him and ride the gravy train for a couple of weeks. Has two great matchups and he's going to get a ton of touches, plus he looked so good on Sunday.

 

If you get two wins out of him, that's probably better than any trade offer you would've got anyways. If Fjax stays out for a month or even longer, who knows, you'll be very sad that you 'sold high' on a guy with SERIOUS upside.

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Bills head coach Chan Gailey said Monday starting running back Fred Jackson will miss at least three weeks because of a knee injury. "It’s not going to be three (weeks), but I don’t think it’s going to be eight. It’s probably somewhere in there in between," Gailey said of Jackson's expected return. CBSSports.com NFL Insider Jason La Canfora reported earlier Monday the MRI on Jackson's knee didn't provide an exact timetable for his return, but his status will be monitored over the next 7-10 days. C.J. Spiller will fill-in as the starting running back for Buffalo, starting Week 2 against the Chiefs.

(Updated 09/10/12)

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If you want to end up in the thread about making bad trades, trade away spiller. I will be there laughing at everyone.

 

I agree with this poster and everything he has said in this thread.

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#4 RB in fantasy when he took over last year.

 

I am gambling. I will wait the 7 to 10 days when the swelling goes down and bank on FJax being out for the year. Sprained LCL. I don't even know what a LCL is but it can't be good for a RB.

 

I am looking at moving Sproles or DeMarco eventually over Spiller for a top WR. In Texas, so DeMarco might get me a Tier 1 WR. I've got Rice and Sproles w/ Spiller on bench in another league. Bye week issues with week 8 but going 12 and 1 is better than regretting a Spiller trade.

 

I was gung ho in trading him yesterday but I will let these guys pick up A Morris and enjoy Shanahan before I get a top WR for Spiller.

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If he is dine for the year i wouldnt trade him for anything less than a stud rb because thats what he is. Tell me why he wont succeed in buffalo if he is the starting rb? You cant. You have no idea how to evaluate talent if you honearly believe spiller isnt worth holding on to.

deep breath guy. slow it down. :overhead:

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deep breath guy. slow it down. :overhead:

That is a very good reason why Spiller is overrated and you should sell high on him. Thank you for contributing.

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Wow, really? For sake of comparison, what WRs do you think his value is closer to? Maybe I overvalue Decker and Brown, but how much better of a WR is anyone really gonna give for Spiller?

Spiller is the hot name right now so if you choose to trade him it had better be for a #1 WR, not a 2nd/3rd tier guy like you're mentioning. I would wait to hear more about F Jax because I have a feeling it ain't gonna be good.

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That is a very good reason why Spiller is overrated and you should sell high on him. Thank you for contributing.

I never said I was trading him, I was answering the OP and telling him that if he wants to trade Spiller, it needs to be for something more than the players he was mentioning.

 

Apparently you're really high on Spiller, have "broken down the tape", and have evaluated his talent. Anyone moving CJ done gone crizzay!

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Spiller is the hot name right now so if you choose to trade him it had better be for a #1 WR, not a 2nd/3rd tier guy like you're mentioning. I would wait to hear more about F Jax because I have a feeling it ain't gonna be good.

 

This is why a lot of people have trouble completing trades. Nobody is going to give you a 1WR for Spiller right now, you're going to have to wait on that. And if you wait too long you probably won't want to trade him for a 1WR. The OP had the right idea, if you want to move him Decker or Brown are solid choices to trade for.

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This is why a lot of people have trouble completing trades. Nobody is going to give you a 1WR for Spiller right now, you're going to have to wait on that. And if you wait too long you probably won't want to trade him for a 1WR. The OP had the right idea, if you want to move him Decker or Brown are solid choices to trade for.

 

Wha huh? So to summarize...

-Nobody will give you a 1 WR right now so you'll have to wait.

-If you wait too long you'll want to keep Spiller.

-If you want to move him, 3rd tier WR's are solid choices.

 

Does not compute. :huh:

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The fact that everyone in here is telling you that you should hold on to Spiller, should tell you that it's the perfect time to sell high. He's got a ton of perceived value after one week.

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Wha huh? So to summarize...

-Nobody will give you a 1 WR right now so you'll have to wait.

-If you wait too long you'll want to keep Spiller.

-If you want to move him, 3rd tier WR's are solid choices.

 

Does not compute. :huh:

 

I bet you are the guy that sends the Spiller for Megatron and Spiller for Julio Jones offers every week, and then is angry nobody will trade with you.

 

Brown is a solid 2 WR option, that's about Spiller's value right now. If you can even get that much. This forum was littered with posts and threads insisting Brown would be a WR1 by the end of the year and was the better pick over Mike Wallace. Unless those people have ADHD they're not going to give you Brown anyway.

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I bet you are the guy that sends the Spiller for Megatron and Spiller for Julio Jones offers every week, and then is angry nobody will trade with you.

 

Brown is a solid 2 WR option, that's about Spiller's value right now. If you can even get that much. This forum was littered with posts and threads insisting Brown would be a WR1 by the end of the year and was the better pick over Mike Wallace. Unless those people have ADHD they're not going to give you Brown anyway.

I didn't get too caught up in the Brown love. I'm not in any of those threads you mentioned.

 

You got me all wrong friend. I'm the guy who had Spiller on his bench behind 3 other capable RB's and is willing to listen to guys who want Spiller, but in no hurry to move him. :cheers:

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I didn't get too caught up in the Brown love. I'm not in any of those threads you mentioned.

 

You got me all wrong friend. I'm the guy who had Spiller on his bench behind 3 other capable RB's and is willing to listen to guys who want Spiller, but in no hurry to move him. :cheers:

 

The point is people value players differently, and most people overvalue their own players. So generally for trades you have to have an overvalued product you're trying to move for an undervalued product. You basically have to "take the hit" on fairly consensus value.

 

So just hold onto Spiller and put him on the trading block, if someone gives you a good offer you can trade him. But if you have him projected as 1WR you probably won't be able to move him. It's rare to be able to move top players especially early in the year after the season starts (for early draft leagues trades are most common I've found, but a lot of people don't like early drafts, then later in the season some trades might happen).

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I never said I was trading him, I was answering the OP and telling him that if he wants to trade Spiller, it needs to be for something more than the players he was mentioning.

 

Apparently you're really high on Spiller, have "broken down the tape", and have evaluated his talent. Anyone moving CJ done gone crizzay!

Ok I kind of misread your statement, sorry. It wasn't many words either. I just gathered something different than what you mean. I guess we were saying the same thing. I don't think you will get fair value right now. I mean some may get it but most probably won't.

 

As for Serpent, what does that mean? I don't get that at all. You should trade him for Decker or Brown now because in a few weeks you will value him too much to trade for one of those guys? That sounds like getting the most out of your invesment...

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I own Eric Decker in a couple of leagues and i would trade him straight up for CJ Spiller in a heartbeat, and walk away smiling. I just dont think there is such a thing as too many good running backs, especially guys like Spiller who are involved in the passing game. WRs like Eric Decker are a dime a dozen. There are probably 5 WR on your WW right now that will outscore him this season.

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Yes .... but you know that Decker is NOT on that list.

 

So ...

 

P.S. No way anybody is giving you Spiller for Decker. Who else ya got?

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Yes .... but you know that Decker is NOT on that list.

 

So ...

 

P.S. No way anybody is giving you Spiller for Decker. Who else ya got?

 

The OP asked specifically if we thought he could get Eric Decker for Spiller. :dunno:

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Is he in my league ... and can I have TWO CJ Spillers on one team?

 

I would totally do that. I would even consider trading a Manning ... for 2 CJ Spillers.

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No way do I trade this man. He coul be a top 5 rb very easily. Dude is fast as all hell and seems to score at will.

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I spilled some beer in the corner of my room during the Buffalo game. It's almost like ... that beer was trying to tell me something. It's become a shrine to CJ Spiller.

 

Should I spill some more stuff there?

 

What else could we ad to the CJ Spiller shrine?

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His value may go up more. Jackson's MRI couldn't even be properly read because of too much swelling. It could very easily come out later this week that he's done for the year.

 

You're selling short with Brown or Decker.

 

This.

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