I am Now A Firm Believer in Zero RB Theory

[jrokh 568]

Fournette is that big that fast that goid

[jgcrawfish 232]

No fournette at LSU. Best RB prospect since ADP

 

Jonathan Stewart was the best back I've seen coming out since ADP, including Gurley. He wasn't quite the runner that Peterson was, but was a better pass catcher and a much better blocker. But he developed feet/ankle issues and got into the worst situation (from a fantasy perspective) he could get into in a timeshare with DeAngelo Williams and with Cam the TD vulture to contend with. So much success is predicated on the situation they inherit. Fournette in Cleveland, Washington, San Fran won't be the Fournette he could be with a better team.

[BunnysBastatrds 1,913]

No fournette at LSU. Best RB prospect since ADP

 

 

He's not eligible to play in the NFL till 2017. He's a sophomore.

[H-man 12]

DWill is the "best handcuff"? This statement is wrong on so many levels that Gurley and Freeman owners might find it in their hearts to give you a reach around.....but I doubt it.

Gurley and Freeman weren't handcuffs. In fantasy, handcuffs are guys that are one injury from your stud RB away from being startable most weeks. For you, they're a restraining device your mom uses on you while flicking your pen*s and telling you how bad you are at fantasy football, because that's the only way you can get off.

[Ray_T 589]

I don't have the data but my feeling is that it's a year to year proposition.

In a year like this the zero RB strategy was better. I don't necessarily think that it might be the case again next year.

That's just the nature of an unpredictable game with lots of variance. You have to be able to adapt quickly.

I'd agree.

 

I went with the zero RB strategy mostly by accident, in an auction for my keeper league (we keep 3).

 

I worked this strategy due to the lack of top RB's, and then I was efficient in grabbing RB's who could emerge.

 

It worked out well for me.

 

I ended up getting CJ2K to go along with my only top 15 RB I was able to get, and it worked out reasonably well. But I do not actually think every year will work out like this.

 

I think this is a once in a decade year where it worked out this well.

[BunnysBastatrds 1,913]

I'd agree.

 

I went with the zero RB strategy mostly by accident, in an auction for my keeper league (we keep 3).

 

I worked this strategy due to the lack of top RB's, and then I was efficient in grabbing RB's who could emerge.

 

It worked out well for me.

 

I ended up getting CJ2K to go along with my only top 15 RB I was able to get, and it worked out reasonably well. But I do not actually think every year will work out like this.

 

I think this is a once in a decade year where it worked out this well.

 

 

Who were your WR's? I was thinking it would be difficult to land two of the top three because of price and one more in the top ten, for it to be a true zero RB strategy in auction format.

[SaintsInDome2006 128]

This has been an unusually bad year for stud RBs.

 

But remember, for every Ivory, Murray, Gurley, etc, there's an Alfred Morris, Joseph Randle, Ameer Abdullah, Andre Ellington, etc.

 

The "studs" this year have been all around hit & miss. Luck has been awful, Aaron Rodgers average. Dez hurt, Antonio Brown inconsistent (though not his fault), Odell Beckham inconsistent, Demaryius average, Cobb below average and inconsistent, etc.

 

Who are the truly reliable RB1's who were drafted as such right now at this moment? They are like tight ends this year, maybe half a dozen really good ones and that gives an advantage over competitors.

 

In no order:

- AP

- Gurley

- Miller?

- Ingram

- Murray?

[tanatastic 2,061]

 

Who are the truly reliable RB1's who were drafted as such right now at this moment? They are like tight ends this year, maybe half a dozen really good ones and that gives an advantage over competitors.

 

In no order:

- AP

- Gurley

- Miller (RB2 when drafted?)

- Ingram

Gurley was rnd 4-6 and you were laughed at if you took him as your RB2. Also Miller gave you nothing until the last 4 weeks, was dropped in some leagues. Your looking at AP and forte despite injury and thats basically it.

[redsrback 30]

Personally i think the experts over-rate Ingram every week

[brotherbock 349]

Personally i think the experts over-rate Ingram every week

 

He is a candidate for making the least out of the most, in terms of his offense. Matt Jones is maybe there too--making much less, but out of less. Wasn't particularly worried facing him in a battle for 1st last week. And I was right.

[tanatastic 2,061]

Personally i think the experts over-rate Ingram every week

Hes the second highest scoring RB in fantasy. Hard to overrate that.

[brotherbock 349]

Hes the second highest scoring RB in fantasy. Hard to overrate that.

Points wise, they do. He had one 19 and one 20 in my half point PPR, and it's been 11s and 12s otherwise. But they keep telling us to expect more That's overrating. Maybe my comment about doing the least isn't accurate, but I'm not all that suped up about a guy who gets me 10pts a week in that scoring. I'll take him, but as my number two. I guess you just think a guy in that offense would be scoring in those 19s and 20s reliably. He's twelfth in average points,fyi.

[Ray_T 589]

 

 

Who were your WR's? I was thinking it would be difficult to land two of the top three because of price and one more in the top ten, for it to be a true zero RB strategy in auction format.

My WR's were Demarius Thomas, Alshon Jeffery, TY Hilton, DeSean Jackson, Allen Hurns, and Crabtree. Crabtree I picked up on Waivers to cover an injury and I never let him go.

[BunnysBastatrds 1,913]

My WR's were Demarius Thomas, Alshon Jeffery, TY Hilton, DeSean Jackson, Allen Hurns, and Crabtree. Crabtree I picked up on Waivers to cover an injury and I never let him go.

Cost?

[track 1 16]

It doesn't matter who you draft, what strategy you use, blah blah blah

 

Fantasy football is 90 percent luck

[jrokh 568]

More like 70-30%

[murf74 461]

Just don't overvalue RB and you will be fine. Charles and Bell deserved to be taken early

[brotherbock 349]

It doesn't matter who you draft, what strategy you use, blah blah blah

 

Fantasy football is 90 percent luck

Don't win much?

 

The leagues I play in, there are clear tiers of owners, people who regularly, year after year, perform in the top of the league. Not every season, but most. And there are some who are mostly at the bottom. If it was 90% luck, that wouldn't happen, everyone would end up approaching 500 over time.

 

The number of people who look at some uncontrollable factors and lots of uncertainty and claim that "it's all luck" I guess isn't surprising. But the people I know who think significant skill is involved, and put effort into it, tend to perform better.

 

Uncertainty =/= 90% luck

[thewrathofkuhn 40]

Don't win much?

 

The leagues I play in, there are clear tiers of owners, people who regularly, year after year, perform in the top of the league. Not every season, but most. And there are some who are mostly at the bottom. If it was 90% luck, that wouldn't happen, everyone would end up approaching 500 over time.

 

The number of people who look at some uncontrollable factors and lots of uncertainty and claim that "it's all luck" I guess isn't surprising. But the people I know who think significant skill is involved, and put effort into it, tend to perform better.

 

Uncertainty =/= 90% luck

 

Great post.

 

It should be added that while one can become a great drafter, understanding advanced football analytics and staying on top of snap counts and targets in-season can really separate an owner from the pack. In most competitive leagues all owners draft .500 teams or better. While there is always some good and bad luck involved in injuries (and fantasy schedule, points against), setting an optimal lineup and being a week ahead on free agents (usually those who clear waivers), particularly in the first 3 or 4 weeks can make a .400 team into a .600 team.

 

I'm typically not one to critique a league's settings, number of teams or format – everyone has their reasoning (but I'd happily vote for a 10 team league among good friends with a live draft over a 12 team online draft any time!) but far and away the single greatest way to take your league to the next level and ignite competitiveness is opting for a 5 or 6 person bench with strict waiver and transaction rules and allocations. Hoarding and stashing serves to negate any 'skill', participation, foresight or roster management advantage of good fantasy owners. I hate speaking in absolutes, but any argument against these settings or for large benches is a weak one at best.

[tanatastic 2,061]

There's understanding how to apply draft concepts and then there's dutiful in season waiver wire management. Once those 2 concepts are understood and applied, the rest is luck.

 

Knowing the scoring system is implied, that's a cop out piece of advice. That's like saying know red means stop and green means go before you drive. Of course you do. That's part of the general draft concepts section.

[posty 2,296]

It doesn't matter who you draft, what strategy you use, blah blah blah

 

Fantasy football is 100% 90 percent luck

Fixed...

[brotherbock 349]

There's understanding how to apply draft concepts and then there's dutiful in season waiver wire management. Once those 2 concepts are understood and applied, the rest is luck.

 

Knowing the scoring system is implied, that's a cop out piece of advice. That's like saying know red means stop and green means go before you drive. Of course you do. That's part of the general draft concepts section.

And there's paying attention to snap count trends which can help you, and has helped me, nab upcoming guys before other owners pay attention to them. And there's strength of schedule, which gets misused but is good for choosing between similarly ranked/skilled players some weeks.

 

Look, even in a game like poker where there is literal chance involved, there is obvious skill involved. And yet the best players lose hands, sometimes even whole games, to worse players.

 

Shuffled cards are literal chance. Linebacker versus running back is not chance, at all. It's skill on skill. You betting on which one will win the matchup isn't really chance either, not in the same way that betting on cards or a die roll is. What you have to work through betting on football, FF included, is *lack of information* about who will win. Not the same thing as luck. But that technical issue aside, there still are ways to get a lot of information about who will win that matchup. Ways involving research and skill.

[tanatastic 2,061]

And there's paying attention to snap count trends which can help you, and has helped me, nab upcoming guys before other owners pay attention to them. And there's strength of schedule, which gets misused but is good for choosing between similarly ranked/skilled players some weeks.

Look, even in a game like poker where there is literal chance involved, there is obvious skill involved. And yet the best players lose hands, sometimes even whole games, to worse players.

Shuffled cards are literal chance. Linebacker versus running back is not chance, at all. It's skill on skill. You betting on which one will win the matchup isn't really chance either, not in the same way that betting on cards or a die roll is. What you have to work through betting on football, FF included, is *lack of information* about who will win. Not the same thing as luck. But that technical issue aside, there still are ways to get a lot of information about who will win that matchup. Ways involving research and skill.

Great ideas in theory but for every time one works out, two others don't. Football is known in the gambling world as the worst game to bet on since it has so much variance and randomness. Match ups are hocus pocus iv decided. Cutler destroys the dominant Rams, Luck picks apart the best in league Broncos, Bengals can't score vs league worst Texans right now. It's all up in the air and we are always wrong half the time. Your research and skill about who will win a game amounts to a hill of beans, otherwise you'd be rich from betting. Any team can and does beat any team, weekly. How bout those lions winning for the first time in Lambeau since 93?

 

Play and pray, that's all there is. I'm a draft theory wizard...a scholar. I know every player and tendency in the nfl like it was my job. Doesnt help me for squat and I'm 5-5 in both important leagues. Never won it. Meanwhile there's a Taco who is the village idiot (he's literally a bit slow) who drafts Joe Flacco types in rnd 1 and is a 2 time league champ.

[thewrathofkuhn 40]

Great ideas in theory but for every time one works out, two others don't. Football is known in the gambling world as the worst game to bet on since it has so much variance and randomness. Match ups are hocus pocus iv decided. Cutler destroys the dominant Rams, Luck picks apart the best in league Broncos, Bengals can't score vs league worst Texans right now. It's all up in the air and we are always wrong half the time. Your research and skill about who will win a game amounts to a hill of beans, otherwise you'd be rich from betting. Any team can and does beat any team, weekly. How bout those lions winning for the first time in Lambeau since 93?

 

Play and pray, that's all there is. I'm a draft theory wizard...a scholar. I know every player and tendency in the nfl like it was my job. Doesnt help me for squat and I'm 5-5 in both important leagues. Never won it. Meanwhile there's a Taco who is the village idiot (he's literally a bit slow) who drafts Joe Flacco types in rnd 1 and is a 2 time league champ.

 

You're talking about two widely different things. Using advanced metrics to mitigate risk and predict the reward for individual players for the purpose of fantasy football is akin more to the stock market then betting on the outcome of an individual game. Games, as you allude to have a far greater number (almost infinitely so) number of intangibles not relevant to or associated with decision making for fantasy purposes. Using KPI's and past performance of individual players to predict both their weekly and long term performance is in no way the crapshoot you make it out to be.

 

For an owner with your level of narcissism and self-confidence to ignore the laws of standard deviation because a few owners get lucky, several NFL teams pull some upsets or outperform their record is insane. Sure, from time to time even the best owners will experience an outlier of a fantasy season or run into a schedule where every opponent seems to score significantly more then their season average. Or those in which you never seem to play a team crippled by BYE's.

 

To wit: I am currently the 3rd highest scoring team in my league (5 pts behind second), but after this week will fall to 3-7. I'm averaging 128 a week (PPR) but 135 against (!). I don't think I've faced a team with a RB or WR 1/2 on a bye. I've single handily been the most consistent team in the league (with an overall H2H record of 63-36). It's been a perfect storm of bad luck in my fantasy schedule, NOT my roster, players or management of the team (save for Dez and now Edelman). Nine times out of ten I would be in 1st or 2nd place with my performance. I've won this league 3 of the past 4 years, never finishing worse than 3rd. Every owner is really awesome, active and competitive.

 

Frustrating? You bet. But saying fantasy is play and pray is laughable.

[tanatastic 2,061]

For an owner with your level of narcissism and self-confidence to ignore the laws of standard deviation because a few owners get lucky, several NFL teams pull some upsets or outperform their record is insane. Sure, from time to time even the best owners will experience an outlier of a fantasy season or run into a schedule where every opponent seems to score significantly more then their season average. Or those in which you never seem to play a team crippled by BYE's.

To wit: I am currently the 3rd highest scoring team in my league (5 pts behind second), but after this week will fall to 3-7. I'm averaging 128 a week (PPR) but 135 against (!). I don't think I've faced a team with a RB or WR 1/2 on a bye. I've single handily been the most consistent team in the league (with an overall H2H record of 63-36.

 

Frustrating? You bet. But saying fantasy is play and pray is laughable.

You made my argument for me. It's play and pray your opponent doesn't outscore you. Your own score is a minor factor and you can't affect your opponents. That's the definition of play and pray. I hear what your saying tho.

[brotherbock 349]

You made my argument for me. It's play and pray your opponent doesn't outscore you. Your own score is a minor factor and you can't affect your opponents. That's the definition of play and pray. I hear what your saying tho.

Competitive bowling is 90% luck. You do your best, but you can't affect your opponent's performance. The best bowler in the league misses an easy spare, a guy who hasn't won all year hits a 7-10. It's bowl and pray.

[thewrathofkuhn 40]

It's play and pray your opponent doesn't outscore you.

 

If only there was something an owner could do to avoid this – like, I don't know, field a team that scores more than your opponent.

 

 

Pick a lane mate. If you firmly believe you can not control your own destiny, why come to and actively participate in a website that focuses on providing fantasy advice?

[tanatastic 2,061]

Competitive bowling is 90% luck. You do your best, but you can't affect your opponent's performance. The best bowler in the league misses an easy spare, a guy who hasn't won all year hits a 7-10. It's bowl and pray.

Don't get defensive but that's an awful analogy. To even put yourself in position to beat that opponent you need to be highly, highly skilled at bowling. At the tip top of the mountain, a lucky missed strike can be the difference. But your already skilled enough to get there. In FF, Sally from accounting who only knows wich football players have the nicest butts can win back to back championships.

 

I know you know this and your trying to say that it's similar because I can't affect the other bowlers score. But I'm only saying that's one of the many factors and layers of luck in FF.

[tanatastic 2,061]

 

If only there was something an owner could do to avoid this like, I don't know, field a team that scores more than your opponent.

 

Yea if I had only thought of that...that's been the missing aspect of my game. I forgot to start a team that out scores him! Genius!

[GobbleDog 816]

ADP per ff-calculator Sept 1, 2015 (ppr)...

 

1. A Peterson

2. L Bell

2. A Brown

4. E Lacey

5. J Charles

6. J Jones

7. D Bryant

8. M Lynch

9. D Thomas

10. O Beckham

11. CJ Anderson

12. C Johnson

 

13. M Forte

14. R Gronk

15. R Cobb

16. J Hill

17. A Luck

18. AJ Green

19. D Murray

20. B Cooks

21. J Forsett

22. TY Hilton

23. A Jeffery

24. L McCoy

 

25. J Matthews

26. A Rodgers

27. L Miller

28. M Evans

29. F Gore

30. D Hopkins

31. E Sanders

32. L Murray

33. M Ingram

34. J Graham

35. D Adams

36. A Johnson

 

37. J Randle

38. A Abdullah

39. J Landry

40. A Morris

41. A Cooper

42. J Edelman

43. A Ellington

44. M Gordon

45. D Martin

46. G Tate

47. K Allen

48. C Hyde

[thewrathofkuhn 40]

Yea if I had only thought of that...that's been the missing aspect of my game. I forgot to start a team that out scores him! Genius!

 

So what are you driving at then?

 

Why put all of the effort into becoming a self described 'wizard / scholar' of something if you believe the outcome is determined by luck? That's like studying for a test knowing grades are handed out arbitrarily.

[thewrathofkuhn 40]

ADP per ff-calculator Sept 1, 2015 (ppr)...

 

37. J Randle

38. A Abdullah

39. J Landry

40. A Morris

41. A Cooper

42. J Edelman

43. A Ellington

44. M Gordon

45. D Martin

46. G Tate

47. K Allen

48. C Hyde

 

This is brutal.

[brotherbock 349]

Don't get defensive but that's an awful analogy. To even put yourself in position to beat that opponent you need to be highly, highly skilled at bowling. At the tip top of the mountain, a lucky missed strike can be the difference. But your already skilled enough to get there. In FF, Sally from accounting who only knows wich football players have the nicest butts can win back to back championships.

In a sh!tty league, sure. That *can* happen. It's not likely to happen, but it *can* happen. I once bowled a 210 while just a little intoxicated. And I'm not a bowler, I averaged about 90 less than that back when I would occasionally bowl two or three times a year.

 

To be at the top of a competitive league, year after year, like many people do in FF, requires skill. To be at the bottom year after year requires a lack of skill.

 

Look, I don't know what to tell you if the leagues you play in truly have no separation between good and bad owners that can be observed over multiple seasons. Maybe that just means that they are all more or less equal in skill. But the experience in many other leagues is of some owners being shown, by results over many years (15 for my keeper league), to be regularly performing better. One guy has never finished outside the top four in the last seven or eight years, I believe, and that's with significant turnover in his keepers. Another guy has been in the bottom two for almost have our existence. Just luck, right?

 

(and just wanted to say I'm not getting upset or anything--sometimes my writing comes off that way. I actually think this is an interesting discussion. )

[tanatastic 2,061]

So what are you driving at then?

 

Why put all of the effort into becoming a self described 'wizard / scholar' of something if you believe the outcome is determined by luck? That's like studying for a test knowing grades are handed out arbitrarily.

Masochism and because it's incredibly fun to talk about and theorize about.

[posty 2,296]

I love reading replies from people that think there is skill involved in this...

[weepaws 2,457]

It's all skill , that's how I roll . I would not play fantasy sports if I thought it was all luck , I don't believe in luck , I believe in skill hard work and Gods will . Thank you Jesus .

[Magnificent Bastard 190]

Don't win much?

 

The leagues I play in, there are clear tiers of owners, people who regularly, year after year, perform in the top of the league. Not every season, but most. And there are some who are mostly at the bottom. If it was 90% luck, that wouldn't happen, everyone would end up approaching 500 over time.

 

The number of people who look at some uncontrollable factors and lots of uncertainty and claim that "it's all luck" I guess isn't surprising. But the people I know who think significant skill is involved, and put effort into it, tend to perform better.

 

Uncertainty =/= 90% luck

It's skill until kickoff. Then it turns to luck.

[Magnificent Bastard 190]

In a sh!tty league, sure. That *can* happen. It's not likely to happen, but it *can* happen. I once bowled a 210 while just a little intoxicated. And I'm not a bowler, I averaged about 90 less than that back when I would occasionally bowl two or three times a year.

 

To be at the top of a competitive league, year after year, like many people do in FF, requires skill. To be at the bottom year after year requires a lack of skill.

 

Look, I don't know what to tell you if the leagues you play in truly have no separation between good and bad owners that can be observed over multiple seasons. Maybe that just means that they are all more or less equal in skill. But the experience in many other leagues is of some owners being shown, by results over many years (15 for my keeper league), to be regularly performing better. One guy has never finished outside the top four in the last seven or eight years, I believe, and that's with significant turnover in his keepers. Another guy has been in the bottom two for almost have our existence. Just luck, right?

 

(and just wanted to say I'm not getting upset or anything--sometimes my writing comes off that way. I actually think this is an interesting discussion. )

Was it unskilled when I took A Luck as my Qb1 and Jordan Matthews as my Wr1? Because those two picks have me feeling a bit unlucky.

[tanatastic 2,061]

It's skill until kickoff. Then it turns to luck.

This is actually very profound and true.

[tanatastic 2,061]

Was it unskilled when I took A Luck as my Qb1 and Jordan Matthews as my Wr1? Because those two picks have me feeling a bit unlucky.

I can hear captain hindsight bearing down on this post to give you a bunch of "well actually yes if you had considered that blah blah blah..."