thewrathofkuhn

Great share mate.

Variables such as?

Wrong forum, but Olsen.

Some friends and I were discussing the viability and benefits of hedging a RB1 with a WR1 or 2 from the same team – particularly from offenses with good run/pass splits. Evans and Martin begat the discussion. The ability to own more then 50% of a team's touches any given week seems incredibly valuable. It also has an interesting 'handcuff' dynamic, in that if either player were to lose time or reps the other could or would see a slight uptick in usage. In reviewing draft ADP and transaction history I feel it's a very sneaky (and inexpensive) way to mitigate scoring risk. Although I've yet to deep dive on the combined scoring average of RB1's and their receiving brethren week over week (and the correlation to a team's run / pass splits), I glanced at the teams with the most even splits and found owning the RB1 and one of the top pass catchers could be a very solid draft/ownership strategy. Interestingly enough this seems independent of offense rank: Lowest pass percentage teams: NY Jets 57.19% – Ivory / Decker / Marshall (As an Ivory owner I traded for Decker week 10 to take advantage of this concept) Kansas City 56.38% – RB of the week / Maclin / Kelce Dallas 56.20% – McFadden/Dez (If Romo was still in one piece I think this is a nice combo) Arizona 56.15% – CJ2K/Johnson/Fitz/Brown Cincinnati 54.53% – Bernard/Hill/Green/Eifert Chicago 54.38% – Forte/Langford / Jeffery/Bennet/Miller Tampa Bay 54.27% – Martin / Evans St Louis 54.02% – Gurley / Austin (Who's quietly putting together a top 15 PPR season. He may be a sneaky 4th or 5th rounder next year.) Minnesota 53.57% – Peterson / Diggs (?) – In 10 or 12 team leagues I won't condone owning a MIN WR. Buffalo 51.77% – McCoy / Watkins Seattle 51.14% – Rawls/Lynch/Baldwin Carolina 48.85% – Olsen/Stewart What's rather interesting is that the opposite may be true for teams featuring the highest percentage pass to run plays – regardless of combined FP scored by the RB and top pass catcher for the team. As you could expect – 4 of the top 5 teams have RBs with high PPR only value, but also lack a tangible week to week combination like the above. Highest pass percentage teams: Detroit 66.75% – Riddick/Johnson (Bell and Abdullah are non factors in 10 and 12 team leagues) Miami 65.98% – Miller/Landry(One of three exceptions from this list) San Diego 65.76% – Woodhead/Gates/Allen New England 64.92% – Gronkowski/Edelman/Blount/Lewis/White (I really like the Gronk, White hedge/handcuff until Edelman returns) Cleveland 64.07% – Johnson/Barnidge Baltimore 64.05% – ?/Forsett/Johnson – Is there a weekly pass catcher in BAL anyone trusts? Jacksonville 63.95% – Yeldon/Robinson(RB)/Robinson(WR)/Hurns/Thomas (Exception #3) New Orleans 63.74% – Cooks/Ingram/Hightower Indianapolis 63.12% – Gore/Hilton Oakland 62.53% – Murray/Cooper (Another possible exception – although it feels like when this offense is struggling everyone struggles. More so then any other team.) The argument against this concept would be: If/when a team is struggling offensively, everyone struggles. Save for a just a few defenses, most will stop one category (pass / rush) better then the other – sometimes considerably so. In theory, this would provide an opportune time to 'hedge' your starter – the un-benchable RB1 or WR1 who is forecasted to see a decrease in points with their opposite position. This concept creates an opportunity for an owner struggling to assemble a viable lineup to snag a FA or get a player in their lineup who would have 'sat' had they not owned the numero-uno's opposite from the same team. The other obvious challenge of course is BYE week(s). When I have a moment I'm going to explore this idea a bit further. Specifically comparing the ADP and rank of a team's top two or three scoring players and the correlation to run/pass ratios. I also have a suspicion the rank of a team's QB may come into play as well. There's a wealth of data available to plot. But I believe, at least initially, given how catastrophic injuries (or early round busts) can be to a fantasy team and with the gap in ADP of most RB1 and WR1/2 or WR1 and RB2/3 teammates this could be a sneaky way to approach next year's draft. Community thoughts?

The only two teams I'd currently start two WR from are JAX and NYJ. In fact, those are also two of only a handful of teams I'd feel comfortable starting both the QB and either or both WR from.

Not this week.

Somewhat relevant given MIN is just a game back for North lead – GB fans need to cheer for CHI and NYG. That first one hurts. I'm really hoping GB can get a two game lead this week. I dread being tied for the division lead after this weekend, then going to AZ and facing MIN at home week 17 for the division. Regardless, due to the dumpster fire that is the East all playing each other to end the season the 2nd WC will most likely come from the North. I'd love to see GB win out and AZ lose 2 of the next 3 so they could sneak out home field at Lambeau versus going to Seattle yet again.

On Martin's first drive he averaged 8 YPC against eight men in the box on 4 of the touches and nine on 1 of them. He was killing it.

I recommend limiting the total number of transactions allowed for each team for the entire season (Week 1-16) to 20-25 each. This forces owners to be judicious with their add/drops and pace themselves as they progress towards the playoffs. It adds another level of GM acumen to the game. We've found 25 to be about perfect. (They also cost $1 each) There are currently 2 playoff teams out of add/drops, a few with 2 or 3 and the rest under 10. If you pair this with small benches of 5 or 6 it really makes for an exciting waiver Tuesday (and Friday for dropped players) and forces owners to run a tight ship all year.

In PPR formats Theo Riddick will should be drafted at least two rounds ahead of Abdullah – if not more. He's the classic example of a non-brand name value pick. Current PPR points: Latavius Murray 165 (10th) Forte 162 Bernard 158 Yeldon 158 Gore 155 Riddick 151 (19th) The difference between Riddick and the 10th ranked PPR RB is 1 point a week. Yet I presume Riddick will likely have a ADP 24-36 spots behind guys like Yeldon, Bernard and Murray. In fact, we'll likely see such a market (over)correction for guys like Ivory and Woohead, that it will push guys like Sims, Riddick and Duke Johnson into the 5th and 6th rounds, making them ideal targets for RB Zero drafts.

Ah ya, I forgot that Lamar Miller is a UFA. MIA hasn't even approached him about a contract. Def. would put Ajayi in top 40 next year. McCoy isn't going anywhere. He was just given 26.5 million in guaranteed money. I doubt Forsett is going anywhere either. He has an exceptionally friendly cap number.

Here's what I'm thinking approximate ADP (PPR) next year: Gurley (12) Langford (15) – If no Forte TJ Yeldon (19) David Johnson (21) – If no CJ2K Matt Jones (26) – If no Morris Thomas Rawls (32) If Lynch still on roster, if no Lynch (10) Duke Johnson (39) Abdullah (42) Melvin Gordon (47) – This might be one of those reverse market correction bargains, if he can figure out how to block and they rebuild the O'Line Karlos Williams (53) Buck Allen (55)

Robinson. ATL allowing +70% to RB's last 3 weeks, +61% last 5, and +30% on season. I don't see anyone else stealing his touches. However, even though he's lost about 40% of his touches a game, Forte has scored TD's last 2 weeks.

Congrats on being loaded.

I wonder when owners will finally stop over paying for rookie RB's.