WR's Early Theory....

[stonewall 647]

It seems to be all the fad this season in redrafts. There are certainly some valid reasons. However, with so many going WR early, isn't this the year to go RB? Kinda like buying when the stock market is tanking?

Been checking trends on redraft mocks, and consistently am getting what I consider workable-solid teams going RB-RB, especially if you are towards the middle-end of round one. We all know that homerism, along with other factors, can throw prearranged plans on their face. However, this is a typical team that I have been snagging in mocks using the time-tested RB-early theory. Not crazy good, but certainly workable.

1.11 Lamar Miller, HOU
2.2 Le'Veon Bell, PIT
3.11 Demaryius Thomas, DEN
4.2 Jordan Reed, WAS
5.11 Jeremy Langford, CHI
6.2 Tom Brady, NE
7.11 Kirk Cousins, WAS
8.2 Tyler Lockett, SEA
9.11 Josh Gordon, CLE
10.2 Arian Foster, MIA
11.11 Corey Coleman, CLE
12.2 Derrick Henry, TEN
13.11 Rishard Matthews, TEN
14.2 Stephen Gostkowski, NE
15.11J acksonville Jaguars, JAC

(missed the DWill cuff by a couple of picks)

Here is the guy drafting behind me at the turn using WR-early:

1.12 Brandin Cooks, NO
2.1 Brandon Marshall, NYJ
3.12 Golden Tate, DET
4.1 Jeremy Hill, CIN
5.12 Frank Gore, IND
6.1 Travis Kelce, KC
7.12 Derek Carr, OAK
8.1 Ameer Abdullah, DET
9.12 Justin Forsett, BAL
10.1 Markus Wheaton, PIT
11.12 Darren Sproles, PHI
12.1 Matthew Stafford, DET
13.12 Sammie Coates, PIT
14.1 Los Angeles Rams, LA
15.12 Blair Walsh, MIN

Anybody else thinking of bucking the trend and going RB heavy early?

[Frozenbeernuts 1,652]

Wow Cooks at 1.12. I usually see him going in the late second to early third.

 

I wouldn't be completely comfortable with Thomas and Lockett as my top 2. Jordan Reed is a very risky player in the third round with his previous health issues, but I get aiming for strength at the position. I also don't like Langford much, or at least at his ADP. The rb situation isn't very clear in Chicago right now. Plus I don't know if they have a RB on the roster who is really reliable in pass catching.

[JediMaster 20]

The WR/WR fad is nothing new. I see it every year. It's just more teams are going with it this year.

[Frozenbeernuts 1,652]

If I had the first pick, I would be tempted to either take a RB, because there are a bunch of good ones that can be had in the other rounds, or take Brown and trade him for a RB plus some extra. Man I hope I get first pick. It has never happened for me in a redraft. Ever.

[BobSanders_33 127]

Both those teams are garbage. You playing in an 18 team league brah?

[Crystal Meth Tweekers 26]

Both those teams are garbage. You playing in an 18 team league brah?

 

 

Yeah I didn't want to hurt your feelings but they both really suck. Your receivers could be horrendous. Last year the top WR's outscored the top RB's by quiet a bit. I could see taking a RB in the first 2 rounds. I like to make sure I get 2 good WR's in the first 3 rounds. They have less bust potential as well. You could get he likes of a Miller/Marshall duo there.

 

Why take Brady and then Cousins in the next round? Cousins doesn't go that early first off. You need a QB for 4 weeks until Brady is back. Wait til round 11-12 there will still be good options.

[BufordT 371]

Both those teams are garbage. You playing in an 18 team league brah?

 

Hahaha.....now this bored is getting back into full swing.

 

He's just talking about mocks not his real team....hopefully.

 

I've always been a bpa drafter and always will be.

 

It's my humble opinion that the success of the wr/wr theory last year had a lot to do with some rb's getting hurt.

[Maulers1973 117]

Your best WR is DT and he has Sanchise throwing to him? Not good. Overall, I like your draft, but you needed a reliable WR2 in the 5th instead of Langford. You went RB early, so why pick a 3rd one in that spot when you need a WR at that point?

 

The guy drafting behind you found good value at RB. I'd say you did not find good value at WR, but you could have. Your premise is solid, but your execution was a bit off in my opinion.

[nzoner 936]

The WR/WR fad is nothing new. I see it every year. It's just more teams are going with it this year.

Not new at all,hell I did it in '99 when I took Randy Moss and Torry Holt at 12-13

[polecatt 399]

The first team is very weak at WR and the 2nd team is just as weak at RB.

It looks to me like you may want to mix and match this year.

[Kent 228]

For me, if I get the first pick, taking Brown is going to be very weird. He's not young Megatron or Randy Moss. The only thing making it easier is the top RBs aren't young Marshall Fault and LT.

[Hawkeye21 1,848]

So with the first 7 picks you have two QBs and a TE? Gross!

 

I have always been a WR early guy even before it was a trend. I will go the other way if need be though. In the current mock draft we're holding on this site I ended up going RB/RB with my first two picks. My team at this point has 4 RBs and 3 WRs. Very different than my July mock where I went WR/WR/WR.

[TBayXXXVII 2,106]

Your best WR is DT and he has Sanchise throwing to him? Not good. Overall, I like your draft, but you needed a reliable WR2 in the 5th instead of Langford. You went RB early, so why pick a 3rd one in that spot when you need a WR at that point?

 

The guy drafting behind you found good value at RB. I'd say you did not find good value at WR, but you could have. Your premise is solid, but your execution was a bit off in my opinion.

 

Last year, he had Manning and Osweiler throwing to him, to which, that tandem ranked 31st in passing. How much worse can Sanchez really be? Manning completed 59.8% of his passes and had a 67.9 passer rating. Osweiler completed 61.8% of his passes and had a passer rating of 86.4. Neither lit the world on fire and Thomas still finished with a top ranking.

[montana 89]

Agree with BufordT..BPA mostly. I just can't bring myself to draft a "true zero rb" team. I always draft at least 1 rb in the first 3 picks. Old habits die hard. I've mocked from multiple spots in 12 team ppr & to be honest, I like my teams much better in the 7-12 spots vs 1-6 lately.

[TBayXXXVII 2,106]

I tried an RB heavy draft myself in my 10-team office league.

1 QB / 2 RB / 2 WR / 1 RB-WR FLEX / 1 TE / 1 K / 1 DE

Picking from the #5 spot

1. Ezekiel Elliott (Dal - RB)

2. Doug Martin (TB - RB)

3. Devonta Freeman (Atl - RB)

4. Kelvin Benjamin (Car - WR)

5. Golden Tate (Det - WR)

6. Larry Fitzgerald (Ari - WR)

7. Blake Bortles (Jax - QB)

8. Matt Jones (Was - RB)

9. Emmanuel Sanders (Den - WR)

10. Danny Woodhead (SD - RB)

11. Josh Gordon (CLE - WR)

12. Dwayne Allen (Ind - TE)

13. Jameis Winston (TB - QB)

14. Mason Crosby (GB - K)

15. Green Bay (GB - DEF)

[DrG 94]

Similar to Montana, I aim for one of each in the first two rounds, otherwise I find myself being forced to build a position later in the draft.

 

Recognizing your own strengths and executing the strategy you work best with is more important.

[Maulers1973 117]

 

Last year, he had Manning and Osweiler throwing to him, to which, that tandem ranked 31st in passing. How much worse can Sanchez really be? Manning completed 59.8% of his passes and had a 67.9 passer rating. Osweiler completed 61.8% of his passes and had a passer rating of 86.4. Neither lit the world on fire and Thomas still finished with a top ranking.

 

59 and 61. Those are bad #'s for sure. When Sanchez has played 10 games or more in a season his best completion % is 56.7. That's worse. I'll admit that I thought he was an INT machine, but he's not the worst in that category. Though, he's clearly not better.

 

My main point was that he could have done better especially by choosing a WR in the 5th.

[TBayXXXVII 2,106]

 

59 and 61. Those are bad #'s for sure. When Sanchez has played 10 games or more in a season his best completion % is 56.7. That's worse. I'll admit that I thought he was an INT machine, but he's not the worst in that category. Though, he's clearly not better.

 

My main point was that he could have done better especially by choosing a WR in the 5th.

 

 

In his 13 games / 10 starts, in Philly, he was over 64%. That's definitely an improvement (from what he was in NY). I don't think he's anything special, but I do think he won't be any worse than what Peyton and Brock were. Though, I do agree he shouldn't have waited until the 8th round to take his 2nd WR.

[phillygrrl08 139]

I'm doing one of each but don't wait on TEs because the drop off is steep.

[Maulers1973 117]

 

 

In his 13 games / 10 starts, in Philly, he was over 64%. That's definitely an improvement (from what he was in NY). I don't think he's anything special, but I do think he won't be any worse than what Peyton and Brock were. Though, I do agree he shouldn't have waited until the 8th round to take his 2nd WR.

 

2014 28 PHI QB 3 9 8 4-4-0 198 309 64.1 2418 14 4.5 11

 

It was 9 games and 8 starts.

 

 

 

I tried an RB heavy draft myself in my 10-team office league.

1 QB / 2 RB / 2 WR / 1 RB-WR FLEX / 1 TE / 1 K / 1 DE

Picking from the #5 spot

1. Ezekiel Elliott (Dal - RB)

2. Doug Martin (TB - RB)

3. Devonta Freeman (Atl - RB)

4. Kelvin Benjamin (Car - WR)

5. Golden Tate (Det - WR)

6. Larry Fitzgerald (Ari - WR)

7. Blake Bortles (Jax - QB)

8. Matt Jones (Was - RB)

9. Emmanuel Sanders (Den - WR)

10. Danny Woodhead (SD - RB)

11. Josh Gordon (CLE - WR)

12. Dwayne Allen (Ind - TE)

13. Jameis Winston (TB - QB)

14. Mason Crosby (GB - K)

15. Green Bay (GB - DEF)

 

 

I love this team and you should too! Well, could be better at TE and Def, but you've got a great team with really good depth!

[TBayXXXVII 2,106]

 

2014 28 PHI QB 3 9 8 4-4-0 198 309 64.1 2418 14 4.5 11

 

It was 9 games and 8 starts.

 

 

 

I love this team and you should too! Well, could be better at TE and Def, but you've got a great team with really good depth!

He played and started a few last year too... and completed 64.9% of his passes.

 

Yeah, I like that team. I figured I may be able to overpay for a TE (in a trade), find one on waivers, or get lucky. I just grabbed a defense. I always play matchups. I'll probably pick up the Eagles or Rams defense on waivers for week 1.

[weepaws 2,452]

Since Bell is going to miss the first four games , I'm down to just two Rb I would take in the first round .

 

And since all my leagues I've join this season are ppr leagues going Wr early is even an easier choice .

 

I'm all inon going Wr early and often .

[Crystal Meth Tweekers 26]

 

I tried an RB heavy draft myself in my 10-team office league.

1 QB / 2 RB / 2 WR / 1 RB-WR FLEX / 1 TE / 1 K / 1 DE

Picking from the #5 spot

1. Ezekiel Elliott (Dal - RB)

2. Doug Martin (TB - RB)

3. Devonta Freeman (Atl - RB)

4. Kelvin Benjamin (Car - WR)

5. Golden Tate (Det - WR)

6. Larry Fitzgerald (Ari - WR)

7. Blake Bortles (Jax - QB)

8. Matt Jones (Was - RB)

9. Emmanuel Sanders (Den - WR)

10. Danny Woodhead (SD - RB)

11. Josh Gordon (CLE - WR)

12. Dwayne Allen (Ind - TE)

13. Jameis Winston (TB - QB)

14. Mason Crosby (GB - K)

15. Green Bay (GB - DEF)

 

 

 

Your loaded at RB. It's a very good team obviously some weak drafters in this league too. Woodhead in the 10th!!

[ROCKFORD 134]

this is the year for te/te.

[Hawkeye21 1,848]

 

 

Your loaded at RB. It's a very good team obviously some weak drafters in this league too. Woodhead in the 10th!!

 

And Fitzgerald in the 6th?

[heavy-set 39]

this is the way I have drafted for years, maybe not 1-3 overall, but damn close. Of course, I do play in ppr leagues where you must start 3wr and can only start 2 rb, which increases the value of wrs and as a value drafter... you get the picture.

 

but as a contrarian, once the public gets in on something, its time to get out.

[weepaws 2,452]

Now Zeke has a hammy problem .

 

Might need to go Wr with the first four picks .

[TBayXXXVII 2,106]

 

 

Your loaded at RB. It's a very good team obviously some weak drafters in this league too. Woodhead in the 10th!!

 

 

 

And Fitzgerald in the 6th?

 

 

Yeah, I was a bit surprised that Woodhead fell that far too. Though, 6 of the people were using the same cheatsheet... LOL, it didn't include PPR for RB's. Hahaha

 

Fitz falling to 55 isn't a real stretch. His current ADP is 57.

[Crystal Meth Tweekers 26]

 

 

 

 

Yeah, I was a bit surprised that Woodhead fell that far too. Though, 6 of the people were using the same cheatsheet... LOL, it didn't include PPR for RB's. Hahaha

 

Fitz falling to 55 isn't a real stretch. His current ADP is 57.

 

 

I am not touching him. His age had caught up with him and then last year he had a 6-7 game stretch.

[Hawkeye21 1,848]

 

 

 

 

Yeah, I was a bit surprised that Woodhead fell that far too. Though, 6 of the people were using the same cheatsheet... LOL, it didn't include PPR for RB's. Hahaha

 

Fitz falling to 55 isn't a real stretch. His current ADP is 57.

 

You're right. I got him in the 6th round of our 10 team mock. For some reason I thought I took him earlier.

[Frozenbeernuts 1,652]

 

 

I am not touching him. His age had caught up with him and then last year he had a 6-7 game stretch.

I am not going to just chalk up the 2ns half of the season to age. Besides the 1st half of last year, Fitzgerald hasn't played at a high level in a long time. It's not on him because he still looked good to me. Maybe not quite as fast, but still very good overall. It's more the qb play. Palmer just hasn't been able to keep Fitz integrated in the offense at a consistently high level. I think last year was an anomoly for Palmer as a whole and this year will be different. We saw him struggle mightily in the playoffs which is a sign for me.

[Ray_T 587]

Yeah, the WR-WR strategy can be a good one, but it also depends on the rules in your league too.

 

It also depends on how many others are going with this strategy as well.

 

I try not to lock myself into one strategy or another because if the first 7 picks in the drafts are WR and you are picking at 8, the right move probably is to not take a WR.

 

This may be an extreme example, but it makes my point.

[weepaws 2,452]

Not me , i go into my drafts with a certain strategy , and than once the draft starts I toss it out .

[Hawkeye21 1,848]

Not me , i go into my drafts with a curtain strategy , and than once the draft starts I toss it out .

 

Why would you bring a curtain to a draft just to throw it away. I'd leave it hanging over the window.

[weepaws 2,452]

Why would you bring a curtain to a draft just to throw it away. I'd leave it hanging over the window.

 

Best place for them is over the window .

 

Lol sorry . I fixed it.

[Frozenbeernuts 1,652]

Best place for them is over the window .

 

Lol sorry . I fixed it.

Why bother? Your purposely misspelled words and horrible grammar are expected. No need to start correcting yourself now.

 

I do admire your fortitude in keeping this schtick up.

[weepaws 2,452]

Oh no here it comes , Jeffery now has a hammy injury .

 

Time to re rank my WRs and move Jeffries down .

[Maulers1973 117]

Oh no here it comes , Jeffery now has a hammy injury .

 

Time to re rank my WRs and move Jeffries down .

 

This does not surprise me. Might want to move White up a bit too.

[weepaws 2,452]

Agree with you .