Pick 2 keepers

[frank 2,144]

ppr, only start 1 RB (+ flex)

 

keep 1 = lose 1st rd pick, keep 2 = lose 1st and 2nd round pick, most people will keep 1 or 2, I have pick #2.

 

QB

RB

WR

WR

TE

Flex

K

D

 

 

T. Brady

M. Gordon

J. Howard

D. Hopkins

T. Pryor

R. Gronkowski

[Bier Meister 1,512]

how is ppr scoring for tight ends (1ppr or 1.5)? if there is an adjustment for te, then i would possibly keep gronk. with the 2nd pick, is it to your advantage to keep none to take what is best on the board? i not not seeing a rationale to keep a 2nd, unless you like brady that high. i think you will get comparable value for qb later in the draft.

[weepaws 2,451]

M Gordon.

[frank 2,144]

how is ppr scoring for tight ends (1ppr or 1.5)? if there is an adjustment for te, then i would possibly keep gronk. with the 2nd pick, is it to your advantage to keep none to take what is best on the board? i not not seeing a rationale to keep a 2nd, unless you like brady that high. i think you will get comparable value for qb later in the draft.

1 point ppr for all players.

 

I have the second pick, but it's serpentine, so I have pick 1.2, 2.11, 3.2...... If I keep no one, I will probably have the first pick, sine the other person will probably keep at least 1, but the top 15-22 players will be gone. If I only keep 1, my first pick will be late second round, but again, there may be very few picks in front of me.

 

I'm leaning towards Gronk and 1 of the RBs.

[Bier Meister 1,512]

1 point ppr for all players.

 

I have the second pick, but it's serpentine, so I have pick 1.2, 2.11, 3.2...... If I keep no one, I will probably have the first pick, sine the other person will probably keep at least 1, but the top 15-22 players will be gone. If I only keep 1, my first pick will be late second round, but again, there may be very few picks in front of me.

 

I'm leaning towards Gronk and 1 of the RBs.

 

 

excellent. this is where your speculation takes over. do you like gronk in the first? what other te's will be available (how many owners will keep a te in a 2 player keeper)? which rb's will be available and do you like yours for that late 2nd.

 

my thoughts on this is that if keep no one you leave yourself the option to pick up gronk or upgrade that rb, or even consider wr and if you are determined to have a te that early, kelce, rudolph, graham, bennett will be avaiable in the 2nd or 3rd....

 

so imo upgrade at rb + dip at te > gronk + your favorite rb.

 

 

it comes down to who will be available after keeper declarations.

[weepaws 2,451]

Just keep M Gordon.

[Mark91G 13]

Just keep M Gordon.

 

am with weepaws, in a keeper league I don't see gronk being the way to go. yes he is a monster but his health is struggling can be 100% you get the full season.

 

in a keeper league id always be going for a RB or WR to keep and M.Gordon looks set to have a massive year you will pick up a good/decent TE in later rounds.

 

if you keep 2 id take howard as well and you are sorted at the position that most ppl fight for.

 

id also say most ppl will do the same go good TE and WR will be free for you to pick up

[MTSkiBum 1,593]

You either keep 0 or 2, keeping 1 does not help you out.

 

I would probably keep 0, but if you decided on 2 then Gronk and Howard.

[scottsind 61]

My thoughts are you keep J. Howard and M. Gordon. You can flex one of those running backs, right? This way you can get two potentially first round/high second/high upside talents (Howard is most of what the bears have on O as you probably know). Only keeping one player does you no justice as you have to wait for the snake to come back around, barring everyone does not stick with 2 keepers. Then either a RB hungry teams trades you for one of your top tier RBs during the season for a WR upgrade or you just ride out what should be pass catching, touchdown scoring RBs. Good luck!

[Ray_T 587]

ppr, only start 1 RB (+ flex)

 

keep 1 = lose 1st rd pick, keep 2 = lose 1st and 2nd round pick, most people will keep 1 or 2, I have pick #2.

 

QB

RB

WR

WR

TE

Flex

K

D

 

 

T. Brady

M. Gordon

J. Howard

D. Hopkins

T. Pryor

R. Gronkowski

ok, the way I read the rules, you get the #2 pick.

 

so if you keep nobody, the only way you dont get your first selection is if the guy with the #1 pick keeps nobody.

 

if you keep nobody, and everyone else keeps at least one, you will get the first overall pick and the second pick in the second round (assuming the last place team only keeps one)

 

so there is the real possibility it is to your advantage to not keep anybody.

 

If this is the case, I wanna know who the last place team has a choice of keeping.

[Mark91G 13]

the thing if you get the 1st or the 2nd pick bell zeke brown jones are all gone as id guess they will all be kept so are you getting a better RB ?

 

if you have the pick of top 5 TE or top 5 RB you take the RB every time so gronk is out and you take Gordon and if you want to sure up RB Howard if you want to roll the dice and hope for a top WR then just keep Gordon

[Ray_T 587]

the thing if you get the 1st or the 2nd pick bell zeke brown jones are all gone as id guess they will all be kept so are you getting a better RB ?

 

if you have the pick of top 5 TE or top 5 RB you take the RB every time so gronk is out and you take Gordon and if you want to sure up RB Howard if you want to roll the dice and hope for a top WR then just keep Gordon

I guess it all really depends on who is kept.

 

normally you expect all the top guys to be kept, but I find in every draft there are one or two that slip through.

 

I got David Johnston in one of my auction leagues last year because the owner decided to go a different direction. Big mistake for him....

 

there are also usually one or two top teams that have 4-5 keepable players and can only keep 2 or 3.

 

so if you were a bad team under the current rules if your first keeper is a top 3-4 player, you will keep him no matter what.

 

after that it gets dicey.

 

I dont know that Gordon or Howard are true top 5 players but there is the possibility that they are both top 10 players.

 

so in this format, the right move is to keep both or take your chances and keep neither.

 

but for me a lot depends on what the team with the #1 pick is doing.

 

because if you do not keep 2, you need to know

 

1) if you are likely to be able to get your players back

2) what the chances are of getting an upgrade

3) what the chances are of getting a downgrade by not keeping 2.

 

the most likely scenario for a downgrade revolves around the team with the #1 pick grabbing one of the players you left unprotected and leaving you with a lesser option.

[Bier Meister 1,512]

 

 

excellent. this is where your speculation takes over. do you like gronk in the first? what other te's will be available (how many owners will keep a te in a 2 player keeper)? which rb's will be available and do you like yours for that late 2nd.

 

my thoughts on this is that if keep no one you leave yourself the option to pick up gronk or upgrade that rb, or even consider wr and if you are determined to have a te that early, kelce, rudolph, graham, bennett will be avaiable in the 2nd or 3rd....

 

so imo upgrade at rb + dip at te > gronk + your favorite rb.

 

 

it comes down to who will be available after keeper declarations.

 

 

ok, the way I read the rules, you get the #2 pick.

 

so if you keep nobody, the only way you dont get your first selection is if the guy with the #1 pick keeps nobody.

 

if you keep nobody, and everyone else keeps at least one, you will get the first overall pick and the second pick in the second round (assuming the last place team only keeps one)

 

so there is the real possibility it is to your advantage to not keep anybody.

 

If this is the case, I wanna know who the last place team has a choice of keeping.

 

this is exactly what i was driving at. if he does not keep anyone, his worst case scenarios is the 2nd pick, which he can pick back up his own players if he likes or he may be able to upgrade based on his rankings and who is now available. based on adp, it seems like he can improve his #1 and #2 picks vs #1 and #2 keepers

[Ray_T 587]

 

 

 

this is exactly what i was driving at. if he does not keep anyone, his worst case scenarios is the 2nd pick, which he can pick back up his own players if he likes or he may be able to upgrade based on his rankings and who is now available. based on adp, it seems like he can improve his #1 and #2 picks vs #1 and #2 keepers

It's certainly a possibility.

 

maybe we will get clarification on what the #1 guy is likely doing. Maybe if you post his roster as well as a list of the best likely keepers to be thrown back into the pool we may be able to give you the best possible advice.

[frank 2,144]

I didn't even check this until now, but the team with the first pick has Elliot. So, there is no reason to keep 1 player.

 

I doubt anyone better than Howard or Gordon will get dropped.

 

It becomes a question of 2 or 0.

 

Keeping 0, with my 1st pick I either get a guy back or get an upgrade (unlikely, but no way to downgrade). With my second pick, who knows? That sounds great, but I think it is very likely I just get my guy back with the first pick. So, it becomes whether my 2nd choice out of those three players is worth more or less than the 23rd overall pick.

 

 

What do you think about Gordon's health?

 

Thanks for the input so far.

[Bier Meister 1,512]

i still advocate looking at draft order and speculating who will be kept (team by team). it can give you a range of who will be available for your slots. i believe keeping zero plays to your advantage with the 2 spot. at worst, you get your players back. at best you get to upgrade.

[frank 2,144]

I'm going to try to figure this out in the next couple of hours. The deadline is Thursday night and I will be in a casino from tomorrow until Friday morning. I had always planned to keep 2, but because of this thread, I am seriously considering keeping zero.

[Bier Meister 1,512]

you have good players, but i believe in value based drafting. if there are players you love and want to jump on early (or keep at lower value) , i get it but you cannot do that every round... you have to balance your risk/reaches.

 

edit: i typically have different rankings/values than typical cheatsheets/adp, but it is important to know where players are going.

[frank 2,144]

A quick review of the league reveals the following:

 

Last year's winner has A. Brown, A.J. Green, and L. McCoy. He has to drop at least 1, so I could get Green or McCoy instead of my 1st keeper.

 

I think everyone else ranked higher than Gordon/Howard will be kept. I'm really leaning toward keeping zero now. I think I would take Green or McCoy over my RBs, so there is a small upgrade at least, then I see what happens with pick 2.

 

Here's the problem. I'm guessing as many as 7 people will keep only 1, so my 2nd pick would be approximately #8 overall with the following players gone:

Bell

Johnson

Brown

Elliott

Jones

Beckham

Evans

Green

Nelson

McCoy

Hilton

Freeman

Thomas

Murray

Bryant

Cooper

 

Looking at an ESPN "expert" mock draft, I would be moving up 3 picks in round 1 (McCoy instead of Gordon) and moving down 1 pick (Gurley, Cooks, Ajayi, Fournette, Gronk instead of Howard) with my second pick.

[Bier Meister 1,512]

I prefer McCoy or green in the 1st. Kelce or wr/rb in 2nd.... Possibly d murray

[frank 2,144]

I prefer McCoy or green in the 1st. Kelce or wr/rb in 2nd.... Possibly d murray

 

I didn't list him, but I think Kelce will be gone. Murray too probably.

 

Here is what I just come up with. My best estimate is that I can have one of the following options.

 

1. Keep Gordon/Howard and Gronk

 

2. Draft McCoy (or possibly Green) and have the 7th pick with the following available. (the first 7 of these will definitely be available going into the draft)

 

Gordon

Howard

Ajayi

Hopkins

Gronk

Reed

Fournette

D. Thomas/A. Jeffery

Olsen

[Bier Meister 1,512]

Great work. Now you need to decide which 1,2 combo you like. I happen to like McCoy of what is there. Wee is swinging on Gordon. You can make any argument for many.... I think keeping zero puts you in a better position (more options)

[Bier Meister 1,512]

post when declarations are made. let us know who is kept, and which owners will be drafting 1st and 2nd rounds

[frank 2,144]

post when declarations are made. let us know who is kept, and which owners will be drafting 1st and 2nd rounds

 

Thanks for the help. I'm undecided right now, mostly because I want to keep Gronk, but I'm leaning toward keeping zero. I'll update this weekend.

 

In the meantime, if anyone else has an opinion, I'd love to hear it.

[Bier Meister 1,512]

imo mccoy & kelce/rudolph/olsen > gordon & gronk (or gronk and the rb/wr you pick up in the 2nd)

 

i would also consider green with the 1.2, but it forces a rb in the second. i think missing a rb in the first 2 rounds will significantly hinder the roster.

 

still...keep zero and you then have those options in the 1st round

 

just my .02

[frank 2,144]

I ended up keeping Gordon and Gronk. I just didn't want to take a chance with my second pick.

 

Here are the players that got kept. If I kept no one, I would have had the 1st and 6th picks. Going strictly by the CBS draftroom rankings, I would have gotten McCoy and D. Walker.

 

Brees

Luck

Rodgers

Ryan

Wilson

Newton

 

M. Gordon

D. Murray

D. Johnson

L. Bell

E. Elliott

 

A. Brown

AJ Green

J. Jones

M. Thomas

M. Evans

D. Bryant

O. Beckham

 

Gronk

[Bier Meister 1,512]

which rbs, wrs, tes were available at your 6th pick?

[frank 2,144]

which rbs, wrs, tes were available at your 6th pick?

 

 

The draft is not for 3 weeks. Here are the top ranked players according to CBS:

 

McCoy

Freeman

Olsen

Brady

Kelce

Walker

Howard

Reed

 

I made a mistake in the previous post. Walker is the 6th player listed there, but if I had kept no one, Gordon and Gronk would be on the list too. So, the 6th player would be Brady. I'll report back what I could have gotten.

[Bier Meister 1,512]

Cool. Good luck.

[frank 2,144]

Here's what I ended up with:

 

Roethlisberger (7), Dalton (11)

 

Gordon (keeper), Fournette (3), Perkins (10), McFadden (14)

 

Benjamin (4), Hopkins (5), Marshall (6), Garcon (8)

 

Gronk (keeper), Eifert (9)

 

Lutz (13)

 

Pittsburgh (12)

[Bier Meister 1,512]

fournette and pit d had very nice weeks.

 

 

still like mccoy