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6 pt PASS TD

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How does this change your ranking of qbs in terms of the draft, specifically in the early rounds (say top 25 players)?

 

Obviously this is a bump to the big 3 (possibly big 4 with stafford)-- but how big a bump?

 

When do you start trying to grab these guys?

 

I've always been the type to wait on grabbing a QB.. but i've never done 6 pt passing TD and am wondering if i should try and snag a top QB in the second round

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Look at QB early

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Some background to my league... it's a 10 team, .5 PPR (6pt pass td)-- i draft at the 7 spot...

 

I'm wondering if it is smart to grab a QB like brees with my second at 14...

 

Problem if i do that is i most likely have Grahm/Calvin/D. Thomas paired up with a QB and 0 RB and could hit no man's land for RBs as i watch them all go before my third pick...

 

Thoughts?

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How does this change your ranking of qbs in terms of the draft, specifically in the early rounds (say top 25 players)?

 

Obviously this is a bump to the big 3 (possibly big 4 with stafford)-- but how big a bump?

 

When do you start trying to grab these guys?

 

I've always been the type to wait on grabbing a QB.. but i've never done 6 pt passing TD and am wondering if i should try and snag a top QB in the second round

What about the scoring for passing yds?

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Is it a really competitive league? Brees might not last this year until 14 (2.4).

 

It's decently competitive-- and i basically value the top 3 qbs the same.. i assumed either Brees or Rodgers would be there at 14 but idk

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Is it a really competitive league? Brees might not last this year until 14 (2.4).

This. I just did a standard 10-team draft on Sunday with 6 point passing TD's. The 1st 4 picks went Manning, Rodgers, Charles & Brees. Is this the norm? No. But I wasn't the least bit surprised by it. I had the 8th pick & landed Forte & AJ Green with my 1/2 picks. I loved the way that turned out & I landed RGIII & Romo later in the draft.

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6 pt td, the top 3 qbs should be 1st rounders...

 

been playing in a 6 pt td league for the past decade, qbs go fast...especially now with the age of the RBBC, league being more pass heavy with each passing year, etc...

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6 point TD league too.

 

I'm grabbing Manning at 3 if he's available in my league.

RB have a high fail rate. Guys like Manning and Brees can march you right into the playoffs.

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6 pt td, the top 3 qbs should be 1st rounders...

 

been playing in a 6 pt td league for the past decade, qbs go fast...especially now with the age of the RBBC, league being more pass heavy with each passing year, etc...

same here.

My long-time league has 6pt passing TDs and 1pt/20yds passing. QBs are juggernauts and they go VERY early.

 

And it's getting worse every year because the NFL favors passing so much now. At one time, it was a RB league - if you had Emmitt Smith, Terrell Davis, Marshall Faulk, Priest, or Ladanian, you were in great shape - WRs were almost worthless and abundant. Now, it's all QBs and the elite WRs are more reliable than the elite RBs.

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Iv always been torn on this subject. everyone adheres to the same rules so why jump for qb early when everyone elses qbs tds give 6 as well? Im usually a wait for qb guy and if memory serves, in a decade the guys who take qb early never win in my main league from what I remember. They just end up hating their team and scrambling for rbs all year while the guys with romo, ryan etc have perfectly good games from their qbs as well. That said, I may be tempted if Rodgers is there in rnd 2.

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Iv always been torn on this subject. everyone adheres to the same rules so why jump for qb early when everyone elses qbs tds give 6 as well? Im usually a wait for qb guy and if memory serves, in a decade the guys who take qb early never win in my main league from what I remember. They just end up hating their team and scrambling for rbs all year while the guys with romo, ryan etc have perfectly good games from their qbs as well. That said, I may be tempted if Rodgers is there in rnd 2.

 

 

2 reasons.

 

1. THe elite qbs heavily outscore the rest of the field. Consistently. Consistency is a key factor here, which also bleeds into point 2.

2. The middle of the road QBs, the qb carousel so to speak, is a crap shoot. One year you think Eli is the man, he craps out. One year you think Rivers is going to be crap, he throws up heavy numbers. ETCETCETC. aka lack of consistency.

 

I mean at the end of the day, you'll find gems in qbs, rbs and wrs in teh middle rounds, and if you're lucky you'll get one of the handfull of late rounders that pop. So any strategy you choose, you can play the wait game. However, the most consistent commodity in FF today, outside of 'all day' and shady of course, is the stud qb. The top 5 guys that you know are just going to smash numbers. And the way the league operates these days, their chances of getting hurt are less than any other player on the field. That is fact. So why take a rb when every year, consistently, half the 1st round rbs fail. I mean spiller was a top 10 pick last year. Martin was top 3. Your whole team takes a huge hit getting stuck with a dunce as your first, especially when you compare that to the 280 yards and 2.5 td average that a peyton or brees will give you...

 

So tbh, I'm a fan of qb early even in leagues where passing tds are 4 or 5 pts. Again, the most consistent FF performers in today's football, year after year, are the top few qbs. Fact. That and adrian peterson, who's just a freak of nature...

 

HTH

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In my QB 6 pt 12 team league, the last team winners have had:

 

2013 Manning 55 tds

2012 Brees 43

2011 Stafford 41 tds

2010 Brady 36 tds

2009 Rodgers 35 total tds

 

It's pretty clear if you can get a top tier QB in the first, you need to do it.

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Brees and Manning owner have made the playoffs in my league together 5 straight years (Excluding the year Manning sat out).

 

But look back and see when those guys were taken each year. Did anyone grab Brees or Manning before the 7th pick? Did anyone grab them in the first round?

 

It's the same im my league but those two almost always go picks 8-17 (10 team redraft 6 pts per TD). For me, I'm drafting #1 and will go McCoy or Forte (leaning Forte right now) then best WR left on board followed by Stafford. He should be a great value this year.

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2 reasons.

 

1. THe elite qbs heavily outscore the rest of the field. Consistently. Consistency is a key factor here, which also bleeds into point 2.

2. The middle of the road QBs, the qb carousel so to speak, is a crap shoot. One year you think Eli is the man, he craps out. One year you think Rivers is going to be crap, he throws up heavy numbers. ETCETCETC. aka lack of consistency.

 

Im well versed in FF qb theory, im just saying the guys like Stafford, Ryan and Romo, not the bums like eli and dalton, are the guys im comparing to the top 3. Getting the qb late is ALWAYS the better plan assuming you pick your rbs and wrs right, wich as you said is a huge if. The dropoffs at qb just arent as drastic. But again, its all about safety and a top qb is as safe as it gets, while a top rb can flip a coin and bust easily so I get all that. But really if you pick your ryan and romo and they have a great season, you have a huge advantage if you also picked other great players. Meanwhile the rodgers owner is starting reggie bush at rb and praying.

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But look back and see when those guys were taken each year. Did anyone grab Brees or Manning before the 7th pick? Did anyone grab them in the first round?

 

It's the same im my league but those two almost always go picks 8-17 (10 team redraft 6 pts per TD). For me, I'm drafting #1 and will go McCoy or Forte (leaning Forte right now) then best WR left on board followed by Stafford. He should be a great value this year.

 

 

In my league, the only Championship winning QB not taken in the first five picks in my 6pt TD passing league was Stafford. I took him as my backup and he took me to the title. I'm saying it's rare that a team wins without the one of the top 3 QBs, in my league at least.

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Im well versed in FF qb theory, im just saying the guys like Stafford, Ryan and Romo, not the bums like eli and dalton, are the guys im comparing to the top 3. Getting the qb late is ALWAYS the better plan assuming you pick your rbs and wrs right, wich as you said is a huge if. The dropoffs at qb just arent as drastic. But again, its all about safety and a top qb is as safe as it gets, while a top rb can flip a coin and bust easily so I get all that. But really if you pick your ryan and romo and they have a great season, you have a huge advantage if you also picked other great players. Meanwhile the rodgers owner is starting reggie bush at rb and praying.

 

 

your statement says it all...

 

But really if you pick your ryan and romo and they have a great season

 

 

If...and even if they have 'great' seasons, odds are Peyton or Brees will outscore them by a good 5-10 pts per game. That is huge. Add in the 2nd if of...if lacy has a monster year, or if...etc...That's the point, 6 pt passing league or not. The consistency of the stud qbs is far greater than any other entity in FF, outside of like 2 rbs a year.

 

So even with the romo/ryan case, let's call them 5th rounders for sake or arguement...

 

you can either go Peyton rb/rb/wr or rb/wr/wr or wr/rb/wr or wr/wr/rb, getting to that 5th round. The question now becomes, with rounds 2-4 being a wash either way, what gives you a better chance of winning? Peyton and a wr or rb in the 5th, or a rb in the 1st and romo/ryan in 5th. It's not a slam dunk, but there are more 'ifs' in the non peyton equation than there are if you take peyton, because he can carry a bust in the 5th for you singlehandedly. Can ryan/romo carry a spiller/martin/foster bust from last year. Extremely unlikely...

 

that's my take, but it really does just boil down to those top tier qbs being a known commodity. And what is known is that they will throw up monster numbers. And in a 6 pts for passing td league, even using vbd calculations, your top end of the 1st round ends up being the top qbs. And likely a guy like Jimmy Graham, before you even get into the rbs, though the consistent studs at rb do warrant top picks as well. I'd rather grab peyton and have that safety than bet on Lacy being a monster again. or forte repeating last year, or etcetcetc...

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But look back and see when those guys were taken each year. Did anyone grab Brees or Manning before the 7th pick? Did anyone grab them in the first round?

 

It's the same im my league but those two almost always go picks 8-17 (10 team redraft 6 pts per TD). For me, I'm drafting #1 and will go McCoy or Forte (leaning Forte right now) then best WR left on board followed by Stafford. He should be a great value this year.

 

 

first round is first round. If you want to grab peyton in the 1st round, it shouldn't matter too much whether you grab him at 7 or at 3. Unless you absolutely believe value of others is that much greater at 1.03 than peyton. There is no player in teh league, including adrian peterson, whose value is head and shoulders above that of Peyton. Seeing him go at 1.01, which I'm sure happens a lot more frequently than the experts here would want to accept, shouldn't surprise anyone. Getting him at 1.07 in a 6 pt passing td is the equivalent of robbery tbh. I'd expect brees to be gone by then and would easily be eyeballing rogers over the likes of lacy or one of the wrs in the top tier not named megatron...

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Very true pOOh, but we are also debating the value of 6pt vs 4pt, not just the overall value of taking the known commodity in rnd 1. We all know top qb will outscore mid rnd qb, but its the possible value of the player selected in place of that top qb. He could bust, but if he doesnt it may be a big advantage. i guess you could say the same thing if the peyton owner hits gold on his mid rnd rbs, so it could be a wash.

 

My theory is that 6 pt passing TD leagues DO NOT significantly increase the value of high end QBs. It mainly devalues rushing QBs like Kaep, RG3, Wilson, etc.
Let's use Brees and Ryan as examples:
Brees had 39 passing TDs last year and 370 fantasy points in 4pt leagues.
Ryan had 26 passing TDs and 265 fantasy points in 4pt leagues.
That's good for 71.6% of Brees' production.
Now let's change to a 6pt passing TD league.
Brees' point total increases to 448.
Ryan's increases to 317.
That's 70.76% of Brees' production.
The value of the elite QBs relative to their late round counterparts is almost unchanged by going from 4pt passing TDs to 6 pt passing TDs. So if you were a "wait on qb" guy before, theres little reason to change that based on 6 or 4pnt.
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Think I am going to chime in here as well...I think more luck is needed than anything and I don't know if one way is better over the other. Having one of the big three QB's doesn't guarantee you anything. I am in a 6pt TD passing league and I lead the entire league in scoring and I did NOT have Manning, Brees, Rodgers, or everyone's golden boy Graham. As a matter of fact my 1st 4 draft picks were D. Martin, S. Ridley, R. Bush, and D. Amendola. OUCH that looks even worse in print. To add insult to injury I also had Gronk so my team was a MASH unit. The team that had manning's record breaking performance didn't win our league either.

 

Someone mentioned it being a crap shoot picking a QB in the middle rounds and to that I say it's even a bigger crap shoot trying to pick quality starting RB's & WR's in the middle rounds. I would much rather take my chances filling out my roster with the other skill positions and later draft QB's such as Ryan, Romo, Cutler, Newton, Luck. They can be had several rounds later.

 

I agree the NFL is continuing to move to more of a passing league. Not only does that make the elite more attractive it also allows for some of the lesser know QB's to have the ability to throw for 4000+ and 30+. A few years back very few could eclipse this mark and now multiple times per season. Now we are getting into the 5000 range.

 

Maybe we can revisit this post after the season and compare

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Very true pOOh, but we are also debating the value of 6pt vs 4pt, not just the overall value of taking the known commodity in rnd 1. We all know top qb will outscore mid rnd qb, but its the possible value of the player selected in place of that top qb. He could bust, but if he doesnt it may be a big advantage. i guess you could say the same thing if the peyton owner hits gold on his mid rnd rbs, so it could be a wash.

 

My theory is that 6 pt passing TD leagues DO NOT significantly increase the value of high end QBs. It mainly devalues rushing QBs like Kaep, RG3, Wilson, etc.
Let's use Brees and Ryan as examples:
Brees had 39 passing TDs last year and 370 fantasy points in 4pt leagues.
Ryan had 26 passing TDs and 265 fantasy points in 4pt leagues.
That's good for 71.6% of Brees' production.
Now let's change to a 6pt passing TD league.
Brees' point total increases to 448.
Ryan's increases to 317.
That's 70.76% of Brees' production.
The value of the elite QBs relative to their late round counterparts is almost unchanged by going from 4pt passing TDs to 6 pt passing TDs. So if you were a "wait on qb" guy before, theres little reason to change that based on 6 or 4pnt.

 

 

 

good analysis, and I agree. It's the rushing qbs that need to be dropped m ore so than the top tier studs lifted up more, but that is only in the analysis of purely qbs vs. qbs. When you get to 4 pts vs 6 pts, the total production of qbs increases, which makes them more valuable in general, compared to the other positions, thus moving them up...

 

SO simple analysis, not using round numbers.

 

4 pt passing league: qb with 40 tds gets 160 pts, running back with 15 tds gets 90 pts...tds alone, assuming yardage remains same

6 pt passing league: qb with 40 tds gets 240 pts, running back with 15 tds gets 90 pts. Increase in difference is significant, allowing you to, with a stud qb, carry a team more so than if it was 4 pts per td.

 

Hell in my 6 pt league, there are consistenly weeks where a qb goes off, and the rest of the team basely has to do anything, the qb will put up 2/3 of the points required to beat the other team. So thats the analysis that needs to be taken into account to boost qbs above some of the rbs in the 1st round. And the adage of half the 1st round rbs busting still applies either way, leading me more towards qbs. Even in my 4 pts passing td league, I lean more towards a stud qb early unless I get one of the top 3 rbs. I'd take peyton over megatron any day. Wildcard for me is Jimmy Graham, because his production over a middle of the road TE is so much greater that it merits a top 6 pick...

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good analysis, and I agree. It's the rushing qbs that need to be dropped m ore so than the top tier studs lifted up more, but that is only in the analysis of purely qbs vs. qbs. When you get to 4 pts vs 6 pts, the total production of qbs increases, which makes them more valuable in general, compared to the other positions, thus moving them up...

 

Yea I def agree it makes them as a whole more valuable. I think it should make a "wait on qb" guy grab his qb at rnd 6 at the latest as opposed to the popular rnd 7-8-9 we see alot. To me thats 3rbs, 2wrs and the qb wich is a great base for any team.

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I think having one of the top 3 helps but the trick is having a little luck or foresight to know which ones will be up there. Those guys that pick well (knowing which QBs will do well that year) will draft well in other rounds as well.

 

Did the owners that took Rodgers early last year make it to the dance? Probably not.

 

Brady used to be in the top 3 too but last year he sucked for awhile and no one rode him to the dance.

 

It will happen to Brees and Manning too at some point and it will be AFTER someone spent a 1st round pick on them.

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From ESPN's Matthew Berry:

 

Simply put, I want to be either one of the first guys in my league to draft a quarterback this year, or the last. And I'm still going to be picky about whom I get in whatever tier I end up selecting one.

 

Going back to the study of playoff teams in ESPN standard leagues over the last two years, they got, on average, 19 percent of their weekly scoring from the quarterback position. This percentage was the highest of any one slot. Now, we also know that playoff teams averaged 1,234 points in the first 13 weeks. So if a QB scores 19 percent of your total, that means you need 235 points from your starting QB and your bye week fill-in in the fantasy regular season. Assuming your bye-week replacement gets your 15 points (your average Matt Ryan/Alex Smith performances last season), you're looking for 220 in 12 weeks out of your starter, or 18.3 points per week.

 

You know how many quarterbacks averaged at least 18.3 points per game last season that you felt comfortable starting in at least eight games (which rules out Foles)? Four: Peyton Manning, Drew Brees, Cam Newton, Aaron Rodgers.

 

 

http://espn.go.com/fantasy/football/story/_/page/NFLDK2K14_berrymanifesto/matthew-berry-fantasy-football-draft-day-strategy-revealed-draft-day-manifesto

 

A very interesting read.

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Yea I def agree it makes them as a whole more valuable. I think it should make a "wait on qb" guy grab his qb at rnd 6 at the latest as opposed to the popular rnd 7-8-9 we see alot. To me thats 3rbs, 2wrs and the qb wich is a great base for any team.

yeah man, there's more than 1 way to skin a cat here for sure. I've just always been high on the stud qbs, regardless of scoring. ANd consistently, my seasons have gone well above average with a stud qb at the helm. last year when I took foster in the 1st in 2 leagues, not so much. Now if it was just a foster thing and a 1 year thing, I'd write it off as an anomaly, but everyone here knows the 1st rd rbs are a crap shoot. I mean if lacy comes in and drops a total turd on the season, is that going to be the most mindblowing thing you ever see?!? Not even close. But if peyton comes in at 3400 yards and 26 tds, people will likely jump off building in disbelief, so that's the route I go in skinning the cat is all...

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yeah man, there's more than 1 way to skin a cat here for sure. I've just always been high on the stud qbs, regardless of scoring. ANd consistently, my seasons have gone well above average with a stud qb at the helm. last year when I took foster in the 1st in 2 leagues, not so much. Now if it was just a foster thing and a 1 year thing, I'd write it off as an anomaly, but everyone here knows the 1st rd rbs are a crap shoot. I mean if lacy comes in and drops a total turd on the season, is that going to be the most mindblowing thing you ever see?!? Not even close. But if peyton comes in at 3400 yards and 26 tds, people will likely jump off building in disbelief, so that's the route I go in skinning the cat is all...

LOL Honestly bro, I would not even be the LEAST bit surprised at all if Charles, Mcoy, Lacy and Lynch ALL sucked major balls. I took my blinders off years ago, this game is effed up man and shite happens with a crazy regularity. But if Peyton played 16 games and had 3400 26? Id be utterly shocked and lose faith in humanity.

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Many good points on both sides of this that's causing my brain to swell. I feel pulling the trigger on one of the elite QB's is easier towards the back of the draft so let me ask you all this. If you are sitting with the 1st or 2nd pick in a traditional snake draft, are you picking one of the top 3 QB's over one of the top couple rated RB's knowing your second pick isn't coming until the end of the 2nd?

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good analysis, and I agree. It's the rushing qbs that need to be dropped m ore so than the top tier studs lifted up more, but that is only in the analysis of purely qbs vs. qbs. When you get to 4 pts vs 6 pts, the total production of qbs increases, which makes them more valuable in general, compared to the other positions, thus moving them up...

 

SO simple analysis, not using round numbers.

 

4 pt passing league: qb with 40 tds gets 160 pts, running back with 15 tds gets 90 pts...tds alone, assuming yardage remains same

6 pt passing league: qb with 40 tds gets 240 pts, running back with 15 tds gets 90 pts. Increase in difference is significant, allowing you to, with a stud qb, carry a team more so than if it was 4 pts per td.

 

Hell in my 6 pt league, there are consistenly weeks where a qb goes off, and the rest of the team basely has to do anything, the qb will put up 2/3 of the points required to beat the other team. So thats the analysis that needs to be taken into account to boost qbs above some of the rbs in the 1st round. And the adage of half the 1st round rbs busting still applies either way, leading me more towards qbs. Even in my 4 pts passing td league, I lean more towards a stud qb early unless I get one of the top 3 rbs. I'd take peyton over megatron any day. Wildcard for me is Jimmy Graham, because his production over a middle of the road TE is so much greater that it merits a top 6 pick...

 

 

If the total production of ALL QB's increases, then it doesn't make them ANY more valuable relative to other positions. Total points mean nothing. It's all about the relative value of the player versus the players at his OWN position.

 

So 6 point vs 4 point passing TD's make about a 1-2 point difference per game, as seen in the example of Drew Brees vs Matt Ryan. Or compare Drew Brees (39 TD passes) to the #10 scoring QB, Russell Wilson (26 TD passes). So Brees outscored Wilson by an extra 26 fantasy points in 6 pt TD leagues versus 4 pt TD leagues. That equates to an extra 1.625 points per week. Now if that increase pushes Brees value ahead of the relative value of some RB's and WR's, then so be it. Move him up the rankings based on that change. But the simple increase in total points for all QB's should not be the driver of that change.

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Many good points on both sides of this that's causing my brain to swell. I feel pulling the trigger on one of the elite QB's is easier towards the back of the draft so let me ask you all this. If you are sitting with the 1st or 2nd pick in a traditional snake draft, are you picking one of the top 3 QB's over one of the top couple rated RB's knowing your second pick isn't coming until the end of the 2nd?

No im pretty sure there is 100% consensus that you take the top 3-4 rbs nomatter what. From there, the debate can rage on between calvin, graham, qb whatever. The farther back in rnd 1 you go, the more of an argument can be made for other positions and players. But tell that to the guy who drafted Tom Brady 1st overall in my league the year after he had 50td!! Snap! OOPS!

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Many good points on both sides of this that's causing my brain to swell. I feel pulling the trigger on one of the elite QB's is easier towards the back of the draft so let me ask you all this. If you are sitting with the 1st or 2nd pick in a traditional snake draft, are you picking one of the top 3 QB's over one of the top couple rated RB's knowing your second pick isn't coming until the end of the 2nd?

 

PPR 10 team redraft in both leagues:

 

Drafted the other night from #2 spot and took Forte. End of 2nd got Julio Jones then Stafford at 3.2

 

This Sunday I draft from the #1 spot and will take either McCoy or Forte and get the best WR left at the end of 2nd round and Stafford at 3.1 who will be just below the top 3 this year if he's not in it.

 

That's a HELLAVA good core to start with.

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I'm in a 14 team league with 6 points for TD passes. In years past (We haven't drafted yet this year) there have been at least 3 QB's taken in the 1st round, another 4 or 5 taken in the 2nd, and 3 or 4 in the 3rd. I can never get myself to take a QB that early so there are usually 2 of us who haven't taken one by the 3rd. It is a league of heavy trading, though, so the depth I have accumulated helps me in trading for one of the top QB's after an owner has started out 1-3.

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I've been in a 6pt TD league for 4 years now where the O-flex position also includes QB as an option. So if you want, you can start 2 QB's. All the top-tier QB's are taken in the first round and they always have the most points at the end of the season.

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I've been in a 6pt TD league for 4 years now where the O-flex position also includes QB as an option. So if you want, you can start 2 QB's. All the top-tier QB's are taken in the first round and they always have the most points at the end of the season.

So not helpful to the topic, lol.

 

Team 8 (out of 12) won the greatest % of leagues last year which is abnormal.

Picks 1-3 have the highest winning % long term.

Average player taken at 1.08? Shady McCoy.

Frequent and ADP 3.08 teammate? Peyton Manning.

 

Many of you are using Peyton as an example when Brees/Rodgers we're taken well ahead of him last year and not in round 1. Nice revisionist history...

 

...(and plain incorrect facts like "the top QBs score 5-10 more PPG than average starting QBs.")

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In my 12 man 6pt league Drew Brees goes number one every year and that guy never misses the playoffs and often wins the league.

 

If I get number one this year, I'm taking Brees and then looking at the week 14 playoff schedule until the draft snakes around back to me.

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