Big Boards from Doug Orth - Version 1.0

[Mike FF Today 607]

Here we go...

 

Top 150, PPR - Version 1.0

 

Doug offers his thoughts/analysis on players that have significant gaps between his ranking and current ADP. As usual, the color-coded matchup chart accompanies the rankings. Non-PPR version coming Thursday.

 

Top 150, Non-PPR - Version 1.0

 

As promised, the above is for standard scoring leagues.

 

Half-Point PPR

 

Marvin Jones No. 56.

 

TFC High Stakes League

 

For those of you playing in the Fantasy Football Championship.

 

FFPC High Stakes League

 

For those of you playing in the Fantasy Football Players Championship

[the spanker 28]

Here we go...

 

Top 150, PPR - Version 1.0

 

Doug offers his thoughts/analysis on players that have significant gaps between his ranking and current ADP. As usual, the color-coded matchup chart accompanies the rankings. Non-PPR version coming Thursday.

 

 

 

Thanks Mike! This is what we've all been waiting for!

[the spanker 28]

Doing a quick glance at the ranking here, Alshon Jeffrey at 39...gulp. That's extremely low.

 

What are your thoughts as to why he's being ranked there? Is it solely based off of injury concerns/predictions or something else?

[willam 0]

boom

[Mike FF Today 607]

Doing a quick glance at the ranking here, Alshon Jeffrey at 39...gulp. That's extremely low.

 

What are your thoughts as to why he's being ranked there? Is it solely based off of injury concerns/predictions or something else?

 

Doug's comments on Jeffery (and many others) are included below the rankings.

[Frozenbeernuts 1,652]

My early impression is that every offensive player has a really easy schedule. Not as confident in the matchup coding system this year. Still a fantastic job. Thanks Doug!

[the spanker 28]

 

Doug's comments on Jeffery (and many others) are included below the rankings.

 

Opps okay...sorry didn't see it. I only took a quick glance initially.

 

Cheers

[BobSanders_33 127]

Kevin White above Michael Floyd? No flippin way!

[DrG 94]

Doug, once again a big thank you. To me, I'm happy to see some surprises (White above Floyd, etc.). I like to see analysts take chances and stick to their gut. A players 'standard deviation' in ADP is also a factor for me when I draft.

[Matt Mueller 146]

Nice to see Mike Evans up there. I just paired him with Brandon Marshall in our IBL PPR league.

[DrG 94]

Big Board 2.0 - I won't be surprised to see Jamaal Charles move up the board. Beyond AP, he is the only other back I think capable of defying the 29/30 RB wall. I found the note on Leveon Bell interesting - risk/reward pick that high, but then again ... he is a guy who can carry the team.

[The Football Guru 211]

My early impression is that every offensive player has a really easy schedule. Not as confident in the matchup coding system this year. Still a fantastic job. Thanks Doug!

I'm going to (hopefully) take some time to reevaluate this over the next week or so. Some years, I am more liberal in handing out reds than others. Receivers move around so much anymore than I have trouble giving them reds, esp. the elite ones. Of course, it is difficult to give any top-10 WR a red simply because his talent usually dictates he is a good bet to win whatever matchup he is facing at least a few times per game.

 

Doug, once again a big thank you. To me, I'm happy to see some surprises (White above Floyd, etc.). I like to see analysts take chances and stick to their gut. A players 'standard deviation' in ADP is also a factor for me when I draft.

You are welcome. Another big focus this year was doing a better job of sticking to my gut. I need to remember the SSI and Value I assign to players helps me get them in the right area, and then it is up to me to figure out where they go from there.

 

Big Board 2.0 - I won't be surprised to see Jamaal Charles move up the board. Beyond AP, he is the only other back I think capable of defying the 29/30 RB wall. I found the note on Leveon Bell interesting - risk/reward pick that high, but then again ... he is a guy who can carry the team.

I'm actually leaning the other way on Charles. We've complained on occasion for years about Charles' workload under Reid. Now, he's coming off a second major knee injury, pushing 30 and has two guys who signed fairly nice contracts for backups nipping at his heels. Ware is probably going to steal goal-line work and it wouldn't surprise me in the least if Reid limits JC to 12-15 touches/game over the first half of the season. If it were based solely on ability, Charles would be ranked higher FWIW.

[Frozenbeernuts 1,652]

Jordan Matthews stock is falling and I love it. The #1 receiver for Peterson after what he did with Maclin. Yeah the qb situation is shaky, but so are a lot of other receivers. Buy buy buy!

[The Football Guru 211]

Maclin >>> Matthews

 

I'm not against owning Matthews, but I think I made a pretty solid case in the article as to why you may not want to count on him very much. He's one Sam Bradford injury away (behind a very shaky line, no less) from Chase Daniel and/or Carson Wentz throwing him the ball. He's nursing a bone bruise at the moment and isn't going to get a lot of work in prior to Week 1.

[We Tigers 71]

I always love these boards. I usually have pretty strong feelings about players but Doug's boards challenge my perceptions at just the right time of the year to have them challenged.

 

I was surprised to see Dion Lewis down at RB19 in the full PPR board. Lack of confidence that he sticks at 5-7 carries/game, or questions about what happens while Brady's out?

 

Hyde was an interesting rank. You hit him pretty hard in the comments, but also note his massive upside. The guys over at The Fake Football had a similar eval when they did their median and peak equity scores.

 

So, what do you think about the Dolphins' run game? You've got Foster at RB40, and Ajayi at RB48. I've been targeting Foster much earlier, but I might be too deep in memories of all the titles he brought me over the years. Is this a combination of neither player having a clear likely outcome while the Dolphins end the year with a potentially brutal rush schedule?

 

Ooh, and I miss the positional rank column--WR10, WR11, WR12, etc. That said, your tiers are very evident, which is more important anyway.

[The Football Guru 211]

I always love these boards. I usually have pretty strong feelings about players but Doug's boards challenge my perceptions at just the right time of the year to have them challenged.

 

I was surprised to see Dion Lewis down at RB19 in the full PPR board. Lack of confidence that he sticks at 5-7 carries/game, or questions about what happens while Brady's out?

 

Hyde was an interesting rank. You hit him pretty hard in the comments, but also note his massive upside. The guys over at The Fake Football had a similar eval when they did their median and peak equity scores.

 

So, what do you think about the Dolphins' run game? You've got Foster at RB40, and Ajayi at RB48. I've been targeting Foster much earlier, but I might be too deep in memories of all the titles he brought me over the years. Is this a combination of neither player having a clear likely outcome while the Dolphins end the year with a potentially brutal rush schedule?

 

Ooh, and I miss the positional rank column--WR10, WR11, WR12, etc. That said, your tiers are very evident, which is more important anyway.

Thanks for the kind words. The positional rank columns will return, so consider your wish granted

 

When a player has the injury history Lewis does, I find it hard to put him into the high-end RB2 territory. (He's essentially a more dynamic, less durable version of Woodhead.) Also, not every back is AP, so I still have issues trusting players in their first year back from an ACL. If Lewis didn't have those injury concerns, I imagine he'd be an early third-rounder in my book.

 

I'm probably just going to suck it up when it comes to Hyde and turn a blind eye to his durability concerns. We play FF to win, do we not? Hyde has a difficult schedule and an injury history to boot, but a featured back in a Chip Kelly offense should be fantasy gold. The cost of handcuffing Draughn (and possibly Mike Davis) is a lot less than D-Will to Bell, yet I'm not sure their upsides (Bell and Hyde's) are all that far apart. i can easily see WR-WR drafters riding Hyde to a championship.

 

You note the Dolphins' schedule and Foster is, well, fragile. There's no way I can recommend Foster coming off such a serious injury. I put my trust in Foster last year (and he has also served me well in years past) to come back healthy and he looked rough right up until the point he tore the Achilles. I can't imagine he's more explosive now. I don't think the Miami staff knows what to feel about Ajayi, other than he is apparently less impressive than an aging Foster. We all might regret not taking Foster for a month or maybe two, but I doubt this season ends well for him.

[the spanker 28]

A name in your top 150 that has me surprised is Dont Moncreif at 36 which is a top of the 3rd round ranking.

 

FFC calculator has his current ADP at 4.11. End of the 4th and in mocks I've done, I've seen him taken in the 5th, 6th round.

 

You have him ranked over some well-established productive WRs such as Maclin, Watkins, Decker, Edelman, and Tate.

 

Please elaborate why you have him ranked so highly.....Thanks.

[The Football Guru 211]

A name in your top 150 that has me surprised is Dont Moncreif at 36 which is a top of the 3rd round ranking.

 

FFC calculator has his current ADP at 4.11. End of the 4th and in mocks I've done, I've seen him taken in the 5th, 6th round.

 

You have him ranked over some well-established productive WRs such as Maclin, Watkins, Decker, Edelman, and Tate.

 

Please elaborate why you have him ranked so highly.....Thanks.

Not to be a jerk, but 36th is at the end of the third round, so we are talking about a difference of about 10 or 11 picks. And to be clear, I always encourage readers to consider the Big Boards as a value chart more than a pick-the-highest-player-available listing. If you know your league, have a pretty good sense people are going to look at last year's stats to help them make their picks and let a guy like Moncrief slip into the fifth or sixth, then don't take him in the fourth.

 

First, allow me to make the quick case against each of the WRs you mention: Maclin has Alex Smith as his QB and really took off after Charles got hurt (recall the GB game was complete garbage time). To this point of his career, Watkins has not been an option in the red zone and struggles to stay healthy. Decker is probably due for a bit of touchdown regression and I'm always a bit leery of receivers who generate so many of their fantasy points from touchdowns (look at how many times a TD saved his fantasy day last year). Edelman has injured the same foot twice in less than a year and already hurt himself in camp; I have no faith he'll last the season. I don't know what to do with Tate now. The addition of Boldin doesn't help him and will steal snaps in the slot from him, plus Marvin Jones may be every bit his equal.

 

I'm aware Moncrief comes with his own issues, just like everyone else. Here's why I am high on him:

1) He has more natural talent than any of the players you mention (outside of Watkins);

2) There are over 200 targets that need to be replaced from last year's team, and I don't see a "new guy" (outside of Phillip Dorsett) getting a significant piece of that pie;

3) Piggybacking off my last point, I'm not sure the Colts are going to be much better running the ball this year than they were last year, so Luck is probably going to throw it at least 600 times. Let's say Hilton hits 160 targets (10 per game), about 25 more than his previous career high. That leaves 440. How many are Allen and Dorsett going to take? A hundred apiece? Both would be nearly double their career highs. Now we are at 240. How many targets are Gore, Ferguson and the backup tight ends going to take? Even if they combine for another 100, that leaves 140 for Moncrief. To make things easy, let's take his 62.3 percent career catch rate and 12.3 career YPC out of those 140 targets:

 

87 catches, 1,067 yards and X touchdowns

 

4) In Luck's seven starts last year, Moncrief's pace stats were 73-802-11 and 123 targets. That was with Andre Johnson and Coby Fleener stealing targets. Unsurprisingly, Moncrief's worst games came against the Panthers and Broncos, two teams Indy had no prayer of protecting Luck. Otherwise, those pace stats would have been significantly higher. Keep in mind last year's WR36 finish was after a half-season of sub-par quarterbacking. I don't see why WR18 (where I have him) isn't achievable.

 

Yes, it is a projection, but tell me why Moncrief can't be 2014 DeAndre Hopkins, who finished as the WR14 that year. He'll have better quarterbacking.

[American Chewy 98]

Great thoughts and info as always. Can't wait for the .5ppr board so I can finish up adjusting my own rankings. GL this yr.

[Mike Nice 40]

Moncrief hype train just passed through

[the spanker 28]

Not to be a jerk, but 36th is at the end of the third round, so we are talking about a difference of about 10 or 11 picks. And to be clear, I always encourage readers to consider the Big Boards as a value chart more than a pick-the-highest-player-available listing. If you know your league, have a pretty good sense people are going to look at last year's stats to help them make their picks and let a guy like Moncrief slip into the fifth or sixth, then don't take him in the fourth.

 

First, allow me to make the quick case against each of the WRs you mention: Maclin has Alex Smith as his QB and really took off after Charles got hurt (recall the GB game was complete garbage time). To this point of his career, Watkins has not been an option in the red zone and struggles to stay healthy. Decker is probably due for a bit of touchdown regression and I'm always a bit leery of receivers who generate so many of their fantasy points from touchdowns (look at how many times a TD saved his fantasy day last year). Edelman has injured the same foot twice in less than a year and already hurt himself in camp; I have no faith he'll last the season. I don't know what to do with Tate now. The addition of Boldin doesn't help him and will steal snaps in the slot from him, plus Marvin Jones may be every bit his equal.

 

I'm aware Moncrief comes with his own issues, just like everyone else. Here's why I am high on him:

1) He has more natural talent than any of the players you mention (outside of Watkins);

2) There are over 200 targets that need to be replaced from last year's team, and I don't see a "new guy" (outside of Phillip Dorsett) getting a significant piece of that pie;

3) Piggybacking off my last point, I'm not sure the Colts are going to be much better running the ball this year than they were last year, so Luck is probably going to throw it at least 600 times. Let's say Hilton hits 160 targets (10 per game), about 25 more than his previous career high. That leaves 440. How many are Allen and Dorsett going to take? A hundred apiece? Both would be nearly double their career highs. Now we are at 240. How many targets are Gore, Ferguson and the backup tight ends going to take? Even if they combine for another 100, that leaves 140 for Moncrief. To make things easy, let's take his 62.3 percent career catch rate and 12.3 career YPC out of those 140 targets:

 

87 catches, 1,067 yards and X touchdowns

 

4) In Luck's seven starts last year, Moncrief's pace stats were 73-802-11 and 123 targets. That was with Andre Johnson and Coby Fleener stealing targets. Unsurprisingly, Moncrief's worst games came against the Panthers and Broncos, two teams Indy had no prayer of protecting Luck. Otherwise, those pace stats would have been significantly higher. Keep in mind last year's WR36 finish was after a half-season of sub-par quarterbacking. I don't see why WR18 (where I have him) isn't achievable.

 

Yes, it is a projection, but tell me why Moncrief can't be 2014 DeAndre Hopkins, who finished as the WR14 that year. He'll have better quarterbacking.

 

 

Thanks for taking the time to respond with a very informative post. I made the mistake of thinking 36th in your rankings (late last night...tired...grrrr ) is the top of the 3rd round, which prompted me to ask the question to begin with.

 

Again I really appreciate you breaking down the comparisons as to why you favor him over the other Wrs, no argument from me here.

[RaiderHaters Revenge 3,583]

completely off topic, love the board always use it

 

where can I find a 2 QB league ADP? Thats worth a damn, the only one I found has Romo in the 2nd round

[The Football Guru 211]

completely off topic, love the board always use it

 

where can I find a 2 QB league ADP? Thats worth a damn, the only one I found has Romo in the 2nd round

https://fantasyfootballcalculator.com/adp.php?format=2qb&year=2016&teams=12&view=graph&pos=all

[Matt Mueller 146]

I'm on the Moncrief train. Working with BMarsh, Evans, Moncrief, Reed in our PPR only must start 1 RB IBL League from 12th overall.

[Matt Mueller 146]

Although I think I may have passed on Watkins for him. Not sure I rank him like that but I don't see the risk with Moncrief.

 

Sometimes it's the guys you don't take.

[DrG 94]

With Moncrief, you are buying the targets and the QB talent. My prediction is that in a few years, when we look back, we'll start to see a progression of higher WR injury rates due to the increased targets. I respect and appreciate the WR heavy approach and it might just be the old dog in me, but I am going for balance when I draft. I simply view pass-catching RBS as akin to WRS and one big lump sum for the 'flex position' and increasingly going w. matchups DFS style.

[The Football Guru 211]

With Moncrief, you are buying the targets and the QB talent. My prediction is that in a few years, when we look back, we'll start to see a progression of higher WR injury rates due to the increased targets. I respect and appreciate the WR heavy approach and it might just be the old dog in me, but I am going for balance when I draft. I simply view pass-catching RBS as akin to WRS and one big lump sum for the 'flex position' and increasingly going w. matchups DFS style.

My preference these days is to go RB-WR or WR-RB in the first two rounds (assuming two-RB, two-WR leagues, as my big money leagues are) so I'm not trapped into one position in the next round or two. Plus, when you aren't trapped into a pick, that approach allows you to snag whatever RB or WR is falling, as opposed to forcing a fit.

[DrG 94]

Doug

I agree with your outlook, but when I do my first draft tomorrow in a league that drafts wrs heavy, how do I not pull the trigger on both Lamar Miller and Leveon Bell at the turn?

[The Football Guru 211]

All I was saying is that was my preference. Like I said in the piece, I'm facing the same dilemma in (at least) one of my high-stakes leagues. If Miller and Bell are both still available and the truly elite WRs are gone, I could easily see myself going Miller-Bell.

[Frozenbeernuts 1,652]

I wouldn't do it. I would take one or the other along with a receiver. I can almost guarantee you will like your team better.

[$epphori$ 118]

Kevin White above Michael Floyd? No flippin way!

 

Yeah I dont get that one. He says that how can anyone rank Benjamin so high when he didnt play at all last year but then at the same time he doesnt apply that to White. Plus White has not even played one NFL snap yet. ANd he has the stiff Cutler throwing to him. I dont see one aspect of the Bears offense that is superior to the Cards. The writer must be a Chicago homer or from the same state as White is from.

 

I appreciate the write up though, I know its a lot of work. No matter what there is always guys ranked ahead of others that people dont agree with. All around its a very good set of rankings. I will be using it as one of my reference sheets in our money league this sunday.

[[echo] 72]

http://fftoday.com/articles/orth/16_pma_big_board_ppr_1.html

 

 

what does black stand for in the chart?

 

black squares matter !!

[Matt Mueller 146]

Black means the player is projected to being OUT.

 

That's my guess seeing Brady and Gordon with 4 to start the year.

 

 

 

The more you know.

[[echo] 72]

ur whickid smaht

[Matt Mueller 146]

Donte Moncrief - WR - Colts

ESPN Colts reporter Mike Wells said "it won't be surprising" if Donte Moncrief leads the team in receptions.

Wells said the same thing in July, and nothing he has seen in training camp has changed his mind. Wells expects Moncrief to occupy more of a possession role this season and be the player Andrew Luck looks to when the play breaks down. He should also be a factor in the red zone after catching five touchdowns in seven games with Luck last year. Moncrief is a solid pick in the fifth round.

[The Football Guru 211]

 

Yeah I dont get that one. He says that how can anyone rank Benjamin so high when he didnt play at all last year but then at the same time he doesnt apply that to White. Plus White has not even played one NFL snap yet. ANd he has the stiff Cutler throwing to him. I dont see one aspect of the Bears offense that is superior to the Cards. The writer must be a Chicago homer or from the same state as White is from.

 

I appreciate the write up though, I know its a lot of work. No matter what there is always guys ranked ahead of others that people dont agree with. All around its a very good set of rankings. I will be using it as one of my reference sheets in our money league this sunday.

 

OK, let's be clear about a few things. Benjamin being out all of last year isn't the only reason I'm ranking him low. To my knowledge, Jamaal Charles and Jordy Nelson had the same injury and I've got them in the second and third round, respectively. Furthermore, White's injury was a stress fracture, not an ACL. There was talk White could have made it back late last season, so I'm not overly concerned about his health or recovery for this season.

 

White has never played a NFL snap. Remind me again how many "rookies" have performed well in recent years. White has as much, if not more, talent than a handful of players who came out in Watkins/Evans/OBJ/Benjamin/Landry class. The point about Cutler is a solid one, but no one seems to care about that when it comes to discussing Alshon Jeffery. (White is a more talented player, just less experienced.) Floyd has produced one season (out of four) a line better than last year's 52-849-6. One. He also has one of the generation's best receivers and a wideout his coach has compared to Marvin Harrison to share targets with. I'll take Floyd over all but a few receivers in the league based on talent, but you'd like to think by now he would have put up a season with more than 65 catches or scored more than six times. Another key reason I have White ahead of Floyd at the moment is because I don't expect Jeffery to play every game. That makes White the only show in town at that point.

 

I guess if you do this long enough, you're probably going to get called a homer for some team or player. I think you can tell I am not a Bears' homer based on my ranks of Jeffery and Langford (exclusion of Cutler and Zach Miller) and I'm from Nebraska originally, not New Jersey. I'm not banging the drum for Quincy Enunwa anytime soon And seeing how the Lions plan on using Ameer Abdullah, you can bet he's not going to crawl up my rankings much higher.

 

Anyway, we can agree to disagree on all of this. I'm just glad you're choosing to use my rankings to help you in your draft.

[the spanker 28]

 

OK, let's be clear about a few things. Benjamin being out all of last year isn't the only reason I'm ranking him low. To my knowledge, Jamaal Charles and Jordy Nelson had the same injury and I've got them in the second and third round, respectively. Furthermore, White's injury was a stress fracture, not an ACL. There was talk White could have made it back late last season, so I'm not overly concerned about his health or recovery for this season.

 

White has never played a NFL snap. Remind me again how many "rookies" have performed well in recent years. White has as much, if not more, talent than a handful of players who came out in Watkins/Evans/OBJ/Benjamin/Landry class. The point about Cutler is a solid one, but no one seems to care about that when it comes to discussing Alshon Jeffery. (White is a more talented player, just less experienced.) Floyd has produced one season (out of four) a line better than last year's 52-849-6. One. He also has one of the generation's best receivers and a wideout his coach has compared to Marvin Harrison to share targets with. I'll take Floyd over all but a few receivers in the league based on talent, but you'd like to think by now he would have put up a season with more than 65 catches or scored more than six times. Another key reason I have White ahead of Floyd at the moment is because I don't expect Jeffery to play every game. That makes White the only show in town at that point.

 

I guess if you do this long enough, you're probably going to get called a homer for some team or player. I think you can tell I am not a Bears' homer based on my ranks of Jeffery and Langford (exclusion of Cutler and Zach Miller) and I'm from Nebraska originally, not New Jersey. I'm not banging the drum for Quincy Enunwa anytime soon And seeing how the Lions plan on using Ameer Abdullah, you can bet he's not going to crawl up my rankings much higher.

 

Anyway, we can agree to disagree on all of this. I'm just glad you're choosing to use my rankings to help you in your draft.

 

Curious, were there any players in particular, that you found difficult to rank?

[The Football Guru 211]

 

Curious, were there any players in particular, that you found difficult to rank?

Le'Veon Bell, Jamaal Charles, Hyde, Jordy, Watkins, Golden Tate, Edelman, Dion Lewis, Fitzgerald, Forsett, Foster. It's a partial list, but I think it hits on a number of them. A lot of injury question marks this year.

[kujerry 9]

Here we go...

 

Top 150, PPR - Version 1.0

 

Doug offers his thoughts/analysis on players that have significant gaps between his ranking and current ADP. As usual, the color-coded matchup chart accompanies the rankings. Non-PPR version coming Thursday.

 

 

Waiting for this. Thanks.

[Mike FF Today 607]

Waiting for this. Thanks.

 

I do have the Non-PPR version is my greasy little hands, but have been swamped today. I should have it posted later this evening.