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Col Hogan

Do you have fantasy football secrets that you don't share on the board? or to anyone?

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I've got a couple gems (although you hacks will prob say it's common knowledge). Anyone want to trade?

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Always draft BPA (known commodities) until you have a solid starting lineup (minus D and K), then load up on high upside players late.

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Always draft BPA (known commodities) until you have a solid starting lineup (minus D and K), then load up on high upside players late.

 

Yes, this.

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Maybe.... eh.... not really. I dunno. Weill I guess so.

 

I mean I play in leagues with a lot of guys who post here and I'm not really keen on gushing about a guy that I want to pick up on waivers this week. Like Charles Johnson last year. I'd been tracking this guy for years from GB to IR to the Cleveland practice squad to climbing the depth chart in Minny. Finally the week they started him and he had a nice solid but not amazing week. I wanted so badly to get him so it's not like I wanted to advertise my excitement for him, those guys read this forum.

 

Always being a top team, I'm always dead last or somewhere near the bottom five on waiver priority/drafting each week of each year. In such case, you have to hit before they go off or win starting gigs like how I got Kaepernick and Foles. And over the years I've lost out on plenty of players that I'd been tracking a long time: Lataveus Murray, Ladarius Green, and Julius Thomas to name a few off the top of my head. Green had been on my roster earlier that year. There was no room, so I left them on waivers and hoped they'd stay there. In each case, there was plenty of hype beforehand such that they all belonged on rosters and yet weren't. Then they have a big week, I put in a waiver claim and BOOM! they were gone to some schmuck who may or may not (how do I know) have ever heard of him before.

 

So it's not like I'm happy about showing my hand. Charles Johnson had a solid week but maybe not enough to draw too much attention. This guy had finally locked down a starting gig. I kept my mouth shut and he became was one of my few waiver wins. Last on waivers each week all year, dude had to slide past all 13 other teams, YES! Rejoice! I immediately plugged him into my injury-depleted flex spot that next week -got rewarded with good result that first week- and he stayed there in my starting lineup the whole rest of the season.

 

But really I only do this keeping my mouth shut with in-season waiver picks. Even if I have a draft coming up next week, I'll give you an honest assessment of anybody and don't hide anything. Everything I say about a player is my real honest opinion.

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There are really very few actual secrets left in fantasy football in this information age. Back before the internet leagues there were some secrets that could give you a leg up, but now the only real advantages you can exploit are the quirky tendencies of your own individual league mates.

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Change is a great one . The four leagues that i have been involed in have been around for a very long time . So to keep others gussing I like change on how I prepare and how I draft . Find that it works great for me keeps me near the top . Even if it's the same scoring system season to season just a little change is good and keeps others gussing .

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The biggest advantage that I have considered myself to have is an amazing spreadsheet to help determine auction values for players. Having a solid idea of what a player's dollar value is before a draft helps me keep my cool during the draft and pick up a solid team. This isn't really a secret but more so just the willingness to put in the extra work. The only other thing I do is a crap load of mock drafts and I take notes from each one to keep track of trends.

 

Other than that you just need to keep up on waiver pick ups. Last year I won big time with OBJ.

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I think the only "secret" I have is common knowledge. Everything else is highly debatable. In my years of playing, I've learned you don't win with "depth" or with a roster full of "above average" players. That was a mistake I made when I first began playing. You win with studs. Sure, they can have a down week at any time, but your true studs are not going to have down weeks that are as bad as a normal player. Last year, I won leagues with studs. My teams seriously lacked depth at every position, but I had Beckham Jr. down the stretch (like many other league winners) and made some trades at the deadline. In the trades, I'm happy to give up a couple "good" players for a "great" one. Some people are content with making the playoffs. I'm not. I want to win. You win with studs.

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It's not really much a secret but the third year breakout for receivers rule is BS.

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It's not really much a secret but the third year breakout for receivers rule is BS.

Correct. The highest percentage of WR breakouts occur in year 2, then year 5, and then year 3.

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Other than the fact, I play Madden and NCAA Football ALOT. (Not really that helpful; but kind of helps you scout guys better) I would say some other secrets that have benefited over the years are writing down every player drafted every year, their team, pick and highlight or mark whether they play offense or defense. Playing in mostly keeper leagues makes this extra important because often times your sleepers will get sniped right in front of your nose.

 

Another is mock drafting constantly either on fantasyfootballcalculator.com for fun to see trends like somebody said above ^ or ESPN free leagues for auctions or snake, if you have free time to actually try to win those. Also, mock drafting my actual leagues constantly up until draft time; making sure my tiers and values are in mind obviously and being realistic.

 

Looking back at old drafts and trades/moves can also help give you ideas of who your league mates might be interested in drafting/trading for etc.

 

Agreed about the 3rd year thing. Pecking orders and development/chemistry/their team determine a WR first 3 years in the league. From then on it is more like their resume/contract and the same stuff.

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Other than the fact, I play Madden and NCAA Football ALOT. (Not really that helpful; but kind of helps you scout guys better)

 

I actually agree with this. I'll throw out one of mine. I always shop players I want to trade to the guy that I play on the bye week of that player. It's something other owners really don't ever check, or care about for that matter. You can make what looks like a slightly lop sided trade knowing the player your giving up won't be used against you.

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I actually agree with this. I'll throw out one of mine. I always shop players I want to trade to the guy that I play on the bye week of that player. It's something other owners really don't ever check, or care about for that matter. You can make what looks like a slightly lop sided trade knowing the player your giving up won't be used against you.

 

Now that's an interesting strategy.

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Other than that you just need to keep up on waiver pick ups. Last year I won big time with OBJ.

yes, i live and die on the wire, always trying to snag the next big thing

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My strategy last year was to load up on WRs and trade one or two away to get a RB. It didn't work out well for me. I traded Golden Tate straight up for Bishop Sankey hoping that Sankey would come on strong in the second half of the season. Tate did amazing and Sankey sucked. Luckily my other WRs were still better than Tate so I didn't miss him but I gave points away to another team.

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yes, i live and die on the wire, always trying to snag the next big thing

 

Have to be careful too. In my big money league each transaction costs money. You have to be certain you want a guy if you're going to pick him up first. I was able to get OBJ a couple weeks before he came back from injury and it was a great gamble.

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Have to be careful too. In my big money league each transaction costs money. You have to be certain you want a guy if you're going to pick him up first. I was able to get OBJ a couple weeks before he came back from injury and it was a great gamble.

i don't play in any leagues where i have to pay to play (as in paying for waivers), not buy in fees

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Maybe.... eh.... not really. I dunno. Weill I guess so.

 

I mean I play in leagues with a lot of guys who post here and I'm not really keen on gushing about a guy that I want to pick up on waivers this week. Like Charles Johnson last year. I'd been tracking this guy for years from GB to IR to the Cleveland practice squad to climbing the depth chart in Minny. Finally the week they started him and he had a nice solid but not amazing week. I wanted so badly to get him so it's not like I wanted to advertise my excitement for him, those guys read this forum.

 

Always being a top team, I'm always dead last or somewhere near the bottom five on waiver priority/drafting each week of each year. In such case, you have to hit before they go off or win starting gigs like how I got Kaepernick and Foles. And over the years I've lost out on plenty of players that I'd been tracking a long time: Lataveus Murray, Ladarius Green, and Julius Thomas to name a few off the top of my head. Green had been on my roster earlier that year. There was no room, so I left them on waivers and hoped they'd stay there. In each case, there was plenty of hype beforehand such that they all belonged on rosters and yet weren't. Then they have a big week, I put in a waiver claim and BOOM! they were gone to some schmuck who may or may not (how do I know) have ever heard of him before.

 

So it's not like I'm happy about showing my hand. Charles Johnson had a solid week but maybe not enough to draw too much attention. This guy had finally locked down a starting gig. I kept my mouth shut and he became was one of my few waiver wins. Last on waivers each week all year, dude had to slide past all 13 other teams, YES! Rejoice! I immediately plugged him into my injury-depleted flex spot that next week -got rewarded with good result that first week- and he stayed there in my starting lineup the whole rest of the season.

 

But really I only do this keeping my mouth shut with in-season waiver picks. Even if I have a draft coming up next week, I'll give you an honest assessment of anybody and don't hide anything. Everything I say about a player is my real honest opinion.

*copies and pastes to his Voltaire file*

 

 

Julie Thomason you say?

 

Latramius Murphy?

 

Lartradious Greene?

 

 

ITS GOLD, VOLTY!!!!! GOLD!!!!!!

 

 

 

(for the record i drafted Thomas and Murray, they werent WW pickups)

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Now that's an interesting strategy.

Thanks! I've never heard anyone else mention it. I've got a couple others too, but I'm not posting them here. They would prob only be applicable to dynasty auction.

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I try to use my real estate agent to steal my buddies cheat sheets....

classic!

 

 

I do two things well in my fantasy leagues:

1.) I talk to everyone.

2.) I only look at a players future value. I don't care what I paid for him or what they have done, I go on what I think they will do.

 

I hesitate to share the following because people in my leagues read this, but I'm gonna share anyway:

 

I talk to people about trades all the time. I am always asking them what their value on a player is. when my rankings vary from theirs I make a move. But that isn't the secret. The secret is to always talk trade all the time and poke and prod... get to know not only everyones team, but everyones value of their team. Know their tells. Exploit the over reactors, our wait the patient. All your training from the poker tables plays out in drafts, trades, etc.

To win you have to take advantage of your friends emotional well being.

 

jdon

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classic!

 

 

I do two things well in my fantasy leagues:

1.) I talk to everyone.

2.) I only look at a players future value. I don't care what I paid for him or what they have done, I go on what I think they will do.

 

I hesitate to share the following because people in my leagues read this, but I'm gonna share anyway:

 

I talk to people about trades all the time. I am always asking them what their value on a player is. when my rankings vary from theirs I make a move. But that isn't the secret. The secret is to always talk trade all the time and poke and prod... get to know not only everyones team, but everyones value of their team. Know their tells. Exploit the over reactors, our wait the patient. All your training from the poker tables plays out in drafts, trades, etc.

To win you have to take advantage of your friends emotional well being.

 

jdon

Deep

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I will share two.

 

First isn't mine.

 

(edit) Drafting best "older than average" player available. The older tried and true players over the hype of youth. Do not worry so much about catching the lighting in the bottle that is the next 2000 yd rusher.

 

 

Second one is mine

Is better to have a guy that will always get you respectable points. Than to have a binge purge guy that will leave you doubting. Historical scoring weeks do little when the guy is on the bench. Scoring nothing just leads to madness.

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It shouldn't be a secret, and you've heard it before, but I have found many guys just don't give enough thought to the rules and how they affect player values.

 

Even in leagues with experienced FF players......... guys focus mostly on how much a player will produce in terms of NFL stats rather than translating that back into how it will produce in terms of league scoring rules, then setting it within the context of the lineup they could put together, then setting it within the context of roster sizes.

 

Same player - different scoring rules would obviously be different, though I don't think many give enough thought to just how to adjust even in that case.

I'm almost certain many don't give enough thought to how to adjust player values sufficiently for lineup differences, and it appears rare to find those who are adjusting player values for things like the total number of roster slots.

 

In a truly competitive league all the guys know football well and have FF experience. Some guys might get more right in any given year and go on a "good luck run", but those who know the rules inside and out and how to adjust for them have an advantage that doesn't go away in any given year and you are more likely to see them near the top year after year despite not being any smarter or more plugged into the NFL.

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Irony at its finest

I refuse to see that as irony; dude believes I am wise!

jdon

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I refuse to see that as irony; dude believes I am wise!

jdon

I really did like your post . I thought that it was right on .

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It shouldn't be a secret, and you've heard it before, but I have found many guys just don't give enough thought to the rules and how they affect player values.

 

Even in leagues with experienced FF players......... guys focus mostly on how much a player will produce in terms of NFL stats rather than translating that back into how it will produce in terms of league scoring rules, then setting it within the context of the lineup they could put together, then setting it within the context of roster sizes.

 

Same player - different scoring rules would obviously be different, though I don't think many give enough thought to just how to adjust even in that case.

I'm almost certain many don't give enough thought to how to adjust player values sufficiently for lineup differences, and it appears rare to find those who are adjusting player values for things like the total number of roster slots.

 

In a truly competitive league all the guys know football well and have FF experience. Some guys might get more right in any given year and go on a "good luck run", but those who know the rules inside and out and how to adjust for them have an advantage that doesn't go away in any given year and you are more likely to see them near the top year after year despite not being any smarter or more plugged into the NFL.

 

This is spot on. If you really want to be better than your opponents then you need to put in the extra time. Take the time to determine the projected stats for every player. Visit multiple sites and look at their projections. See which sites you trust more or maybe even use info from each site to come up with your own projected stats.

 

Once you have projected stats for everyone you can take your league's scoring rules and determine what each player is projected to score. When you have that done you can put together your own player rankings and draft board.

 

I myself use a spread sheet that automatically figures out the projected fantasy points for multiple leagues with different scoring rules. All I have to do is input what their projected stats will be and the formula fills in the rest. It also gets me dollar values for each player for auction leagues.

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This is spot on. If you really want to be better than your opponents then you need to put in the extra time. Take the time to determine the projected stats for every player. Visit multiple sites and look at their projections. See which sites you trust more or maybe even use info from each site to come up with your own projected stats.

 

Once you have projected stats for everyone you can take your league's scoring rules and determine what each player is projected to score. When you have that done you can put together your own player rankings and draft board.

 

I myself use a spread sheet that automatically figures out the projected fantasy points for multiple leagues with different scoring rules. All I have to do is input what their projected stats will be and the formula fills in the rest. It also gets me dollar values for each player for auction leagues.

Having predetermined auction values is not all that important as the value of players fluctuates wildly throughout the draft depending on scarcity. At the start of the draft you may have a $35 dollar value on AJ Green, but see how much that means when four guys all have a lot of money and one WR slot left to fill and the next thing you know Green goes for $57. It's a nice thing to have, but show me a guy who sticks to his initial draft values in an auction and I'll show you a guy who's gonna finish 5-8. Flexability is the real key in auction drafts.

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Having predetermined auction values is not all that important as the value of players fluctuates wildly throughout the draft depending on scarcity. At the start of the draft you may have a $35 dollar value on AJ Green, but see how much that means when four guys all have a lot of money and one WR slot left to fill and the next thing you know Green goes for $57. It's a nice thing to have, but show me a guy who sticks to his initial draft values in an auction and I'll show you a guy who's gonna finish 5-8. Flexability is the real key in auction drafts.

 

Have preset auction values is still very important. You need to have guidelines. If you stick exactly to your auction values it could kill your team. You must stay flexible but still should stay close to your auction values. If you really want a player go ahead and pay big bucks for him but be aware at how much money you have left and the caliber of players that will be available at that amount. Sometimes it's best to let others over pay for a player you want.

 

You are correct, flexibility is key. It's important to keep a cool head too though. Don't get caught in a bidding battle.

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Have preset auction values is still very important. You need to have guidelines. If you stick exactly to your auction values it could kill your team. You must stay flexible but still should stay close to your auction values. If you really want a player go ahead and pay big bucks for him but be aware at how much money you have left and the caliber of players that will be available at that amount. Sometimes it's best to let others over pay for a player you want.

 

You are correct, flexibility is key. It's important to keep a cool head too though. Don't get caught in a bidding battle.

 

You guys are getting what I was laying down generally but I was actually talking about applying the auction value idea even to non-auction leagues.

 

The concept that even though you may be playing in a standard redraft or dynasty league each player has an "auction style value" and that is very much settings dependent.

 

Using that approach gives you a lens though which you can view trade options, etc. with more clarity. A trade that makes sense in one league using the same players, even using with the exact same rosters can yield a different answer depending on roster sizes, etc.

 

I always chuckle a little bit when I see guys post trades on boards asking for opinions and see others give their own opinion with such conviction.

Even if we have great production projections that turn out to be right all the time (and who does?), the league specific settings are an important component and generally not known.

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Ive noticed that owners who draft elite QBs like Manning, Rodgers and Brees wait really really late before grabbing a backup QB. If they get hurt, Its usually and Alex Smith type of guy that they have to fall back on. I try to carry at least 3 if not 4 decent starting QBs on my roster throughout the year. For instance, Matty Ice may be my starter and I will carry Flacco, Dalton, and Tannehill for trade bait. You would be amazed at some of the trades you can pull off with a decent QB you carry on your roster. Especially in 6pt TD leagues. Hell, Even the guys that draft Rivers or Romo will offer good deals if injury succumbs and one of your backup QBs has good back to back weeks.

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Ive noticed that owners who draft elite QBs like Manning, Rodgers and Brees wait really really late before grabbing a backup QB. If they get hurt, Its usually and Alex Smith type of guy that they have to fall back on. I try to carry at least 3 if not 4 decent starting QBs on my roster throughout the year. For instance, Matty Ice may be my starter and I will carry Flacco, Dalton, and Tannehill for trade bait. You would be amazed at some of the trades you can pull off with a decent QB you carry on your roster. Especially in 6pt TD leagues. Hell, Even the guys that draft Rivers or Romo will offer good deals if injury succumbs and one of your backup QBs has good back to back weeks.

Good point. Me to I like to carry at least three starting QBS and they are easy to get since like you said many will pass on them after they get that one starter .

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Im in a 16 team dyansty league. Do the math, each team needs 2 qb's for the bye week and/or injury. There are 2 teams with only 1 starter. 2 teams with 3 starters and they are holding those qb's for ransome!. The one team that has only 1 qb has the 1.04 and unfortuantely will have to use that pick on Winston or Mariotta. Otherwise he is back in the same old pridicament.

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Ive noticed that owners who draft elite QBs like Manning, Rodgers and Brees wait really really late before grabbing a backup QB. If they get hurt, Its usually and Alex Smith type of guy that they have to fall back on. I try to carry at least 3 if not 4 decent starting QBs on my roster throughout the year. For instance, Matty Ice may be my starter and I will carry Flacco, Dalton, and Tannehill for trade bait. You would be amazed at some of the trades you can pull off with a decent QB you carry on your roster. Especially in 6pt TD leagues. Hell, Even the guys that draft Rivers or Romo will offer good deals if injury succumbs and one of your backup QBs has good back to back weeks.

 

I can see that working but not in all leagues. I would never carry that many QBs in the main league I play in. We only have 16 roster spots and 10 of them are starter spots. I can't use up that many of my bench spots for QBs. I will carry one extra QB and sometimes only my starter. I prefer to have plenty of RBs and WRs on my bench.

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I can see that working but not in all leagues. I would never carry that many QBs in the main league I play in. We only have 16 roster spots and 10 of them are starter spots. I can't use up that many of my bench spots for QBs. I will carry one extra QB and sometimes only my starter. I prefer to have plenty of RBs and WRs on my bench.

Back in the late 80 and early 90es I would do the same . But jury's to stud QBs changed that ideal way of drafting . Now I keep three sometimes even four QBS on my teams . I find this to be a lot more useful for trading than a bunch of handcuffs that will sit all season collecting dust and webs .

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Pretty much rule no.1 in the handbook for advanced fantasy football play is to never carry more than 2qbs on your roster at the very most. They are too easy to pluck off the wire and fill holes. Plus thats taking up spots that could be lottery ticket rbs or wrs that outright win your league single handedly. "Eh I could take this injured rookie bum Odel Beckham, or I could take a terrible backup qb that I could just find on the wire. Hmmm."

 

Think Mcflys, think!

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Pretty much rule no.1 in the handbook for advanced fantasy football play is to never carry more than 2qbs on your roster at the very most. They are too easy to pluck off the wire and fill holes. Plus thats taking up spots that could be lottery ticket rbs or wrs that outright win your league single handedly. "Eh I could take this injured rookie bum Odel Beckham, or I could take a terrible backup qb that I could just find on the wire. Hmmm."

 

Think Mcflys, think!

Disagree

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I myself use a spread sheet that automatically figures out the projected fantasy points for multiple leagues with different scoring rules. All I have to do is input what their projected stats will be and the formula fills in the rest. It also gets me dollar values for each player for auction leagues.

 

I'll pay pal you $5 for it. google doc or excel format

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