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Todd Gurley 2017


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#41 redsrback

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Posted 16 March 2017 - 06:46 AM

Good luck with Gurley in the 4th



#42 weepaws

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Posted 16 March 2017 - 07:58 AM

Too early for you?

#43 lesjroza

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Posted 16 March 2017 - 08:08 AM

Doesn't affect his long term prospects but the Dunbar signing insinuates the current Rams don't see Gurley as a 3rd down RB IMO.

 

He's off my redraft radar at his current price. I just see zero reason for a team to sign Dunbar unless they actually intend to use him this season on 3rd downs. You're not signing him as the guy to backup your early down RB and he just isn't a guy you would want as depth IMO, esp at the start of a rebuild.



#44 TBayXXXVII

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Posted 16 March 2017 - 08:42 AM

Interesting take.  You could be right.  I'd have to see how the Rams approach things in pre-season first though.



#45 Frozenbeernuts

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Posted 16 March 2017 - 09:09 AM

Doesn't affect his long term prospects but the Dunbar signing insinuates the current Rams don't see Gurley as a 3rd down RB IMO.

 

He's off my redraft radar at his current price. I just see zero reason for a team to sign Dunbar unless they actually intend to use him this season on 3rd downs. You're not signing him as the guy to backup your early down RB and he just isn't a guy you would want as depth IMO, esp at the start of a rebuild.

McVay did have Chris Thompson to work with in Washington, so this is probably a different version of a similar player. Gurley is a pretty good receiver so I don't see why a team would want to take him out for an inferior option. I mean it does happen in todays NFL, but it feels like the David Johnson debate last year. People were for one doubting he was any better than Chris Johnson. That lead to speculation they would split carries pretty equally. There was also the suggestion that Ellington would be brought in for 3rd down work because he was a nice receiving option. My argument remains the same for both instances, why would an inferior running back be brought in?

 

That's not to say Gurley and Johnson didn't or won't need to be spelled. Every rb needs a break, but Gurley should still get enough 3rd down work so that his value isn't affected.

 

Dunbar is a nice receiving option who can also line up in the slot. It's always beneficial to have those guys around on the team. It creates a nice dynamic and a mismatch with linebackers. I wouldn't be surprised if this was more a move to use both running backs at once, one in the back field and the other in the slot.



#46 polecatt

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Posted 16 March 2017 - 09:13 AM

Lance Dunbar isn't a threat to take touches away from Gurley in the run game but he could take away quite a few catches.



#47 weepaws

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Posted 16 March 2017 - 09:45 AM

I think Dunbar does indeed hurt Gurley in ppr.

Darn it anyway.

#48 lesjroza

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Posted 16 March 2017 - 10:11 AM

McVay did have Chris Thompson to work with in Washington, so this is probably a different version of a similar player. Gurley is a pretty good receiver so I don't see why a team would want to take him out for an inferior option. I mean it does happen in todays NFL, but it feels like the David Johnson debate last year. People were for one doubting he was any better than Chris Johnson. That lead to speculation they would split carries pretty equally. There was also the suggestion that Ellington would be brought in for 3rd down work because he was a nice receiving option. My argument remains the same for both instances, why would an inferior running back be brought in?

 

That's not to say Gurley and Johnson didn't or won't need to be spelled. Every rb needs a break, but Gurley should still get enough 3rd down work so that his value isn't affected.

 

Dunbar is a nice receiving option who can also line up in the slot. It's always beneficial to have those guys around on the team. It creates a nice dynamic and a mismatch with linebackers. I wouldn't be surprised if this was more a move to use both running backs at once, one in the back field and the other in the slot.

 

Its hard to remember after such a huge year posted by DJ but it actually did begin to play out that way early in the year prior to CJ getting hurt. I had to go back and look at game logs to confirm and the sample size was small but I would definitely argue that was the intent and it was only circumstance that changed it.

 

Game 1 NE. AZ knew they were in for a close game and the game plan was to throw the ball.

DJ had 16 carries and CJ only 1...........game plan and game script led to so few team carries but that high teens carries was the planned tgt area of for DJ in the firs 3/4 of the season IMO

 

Game 2  TB

DJ 12 carries  CJ  16           game script allowed the team to hold DJ to fewer than his high teen tgt carries due to a lead as CJ got mop                 up duty in the 3rd Q  This game is closer to the model the Cards would have preferred but it turned they weren't as good as I or they thought

 

Game 3 Buff  

DJ had 19 carries and CJ only 1  The Card were down the whole game here and in catchup mode from the opening, a really bad loss to the Bills

 

Game 4

DJ had 17 carries  CJ 6    ........................but CJ got hurt in this game as did Palmer and the Cards actually lost to the Rams

 

Bottom line:

Early game script kept the Cards from employing the allocations as they would have preferred, but you never saw DJ even with 20 carries until CJ got hurt........................ and the rest was history

 

Week 5

DJ    27 carries Ellington 6

This would have been 50-50 carries between DJ and CJ IMO

 

.................and so it went for the rest of the year.

 

Sometimes we can have sound reasoning and be wrong about the outcome. Sometimes we can have the correct outcome though it happens in an unexpected fashion. I always try to go back and look at why in hopes of learning and improving my thought process but somehow I still get surprised yearly.   :mad:

 

DJ PPG, pre-Chris Johnson injury in my Zeal league (where I own him)

1 23.2

2 17.3

3 26.1

4 15.4

Post Chris Johnson injury

5 37.5

6 36.8

7 27.10

8 17.8

9 bye

10 27.1

11 37

12 32.1

13 38.5

CJ getting hurt probably added 8-10 PPG to DJ over the course of the year (in that format)



#49 Frozenbeernuts

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Posted 16 March 2017 - 10:26 AM

 
 
Its hard to remember after such a huge year posted by DJ but it actually did begin to play out that way early in the year prior to CJ getting hurt. I had to go back and look at game logs to confirm and the sample size was small but I would definitely argue that was the intent and it was only circumstance that changed it.
 

Game 1 NE. AZ knew they were in for a close game and the game plan was to throw the ball.

 

DJ had 16 carries and CJ only 1...........game plan and game script led to so few team carries but that high teens carries was the planned tgt area of for DJ in the firs 3/4 of the season IMO

 

Game 2  TB

 

DJ 12 carries  CJ  16           game script allowed the team to hold DJ to fewer than his high teen tgt carries due to a lead as CJ got mop                 up duty in the 3rd Q  This game is closer to the model the Cards would have preferred but it turned they weren't as good as I or they thought

 

Game 3 Buff  

 

DJ had 19 carries and CJ only 1  The Card were down the whole game here and in catchup mode from the opening, a really bad loss to the Bills

 

Game 4

 

DJ had 17 carries  CJ 6    ........................but CJ got hurt in this game as did Palmer and the Cards actually lost to the Rams

 

 

Bottom line:

 

Early game script kept the Cards from employing the allocations as they would have preferred, but you never saw DJ even with 20 carries until CJ got hurt........................ and the rest was history

 

Week 5

 

DJ    27 carries Ellington 6

 

This would have been 50-50 carries between DJ and CJ IMO

 

.................and so it went for the rest of the year

 

Sometimes we can have sound reasoning and be wrong about the outcome. Sometimes we can have the correct outcome though it happens in an unexpected fashion. I always try to go back and look at why in hopes of learning and improving my thought process but somehow I still get surprised yearly.   :mad:


I think when originally debating it I acknowledged some time that may be needed for Bruce Arians to remove his head from his ass and realize he should be featuring David. He is so superior to Chris in every way at this stage of their careers that I figured at the least it would take a few games for Arians to figure it out.

Now idk if it would have been 50 50. Odds are Chris would have taken more carries than were taken by the other backups. For freshness sake I wouldn't argue it either.

It's not quite the same situation since I don't know McVay all that well and don't know if he starts off with his head firmly planted up his ass like Arians, or if he adapts quickly. Still Dunbar isn't anything special imo, so I don't see why he needs any special 3rd down treatment that eats into Gurleys catches. I mean Gurley isn't going to get 80 catches or anything, but I think as long as he reaches 40 I wouldn't consider Dunbar to have eaten into hi fantasy value.

Now if the Rams had signed Burkhead, this would be a different story.

#50 weepaws

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Posted 16 March 2017 - 11:09 AM

Gurly reached 43 last season without anyone else.

I think that number can truly be cut in half with Dunbar on the team.

#51 Frozenbeernuts

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Posted 16 March 2017 - 11:16 AM

Gurly reached 43 last season without anyone else.

I think that number can truly be cut in half with Dunbar on the team.


22 receptions? Gurley must be a really poor receiver if that's the case. I doubt McVay is foolish enough to do that. Defenses wouldn't even have to worry about Gurley in the pass game. Even if he isn't the most fluid receiver, he is good with the ball in his hands.

#52 TBayXXXVII

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Posted 16 March 2017 - 11:48 AM

22 receptions? Gurley must be a really poor receiver if that's the case. I doubt McVay is foolish enough to do that. Defenses wouldn't even have to worry about Gurley in the pass game. Even if he isn't the most fluid receiver, he is good with the ball in his hands.

 

Or, he sees that Gurley's best skill is running the ball and if he can reduce the number of hits Gurley takes per game by letting someone else be the pass catcher, then he'll get better results from his better rusher.



#53 Frozenbeernuts

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Posted 16 March 2017 - 12:10 PM

 
Or, he sees that Gurley's best skill is running the ball and if he can reduce the number of hits Gurley takes per game by letting someone else be the pass catcher, then he'll get better results from his better rusher.


I can't buy that at all. Not even one bit. He is a football player who theoretically does good stuff with the ball in his hands. That means the team should do their best to get him the ball often. As long as he isn't Alfred Morris bad at receiving, he should be given receptions to increase the overall dynamic of the offense. If they know he isn't much of a threat to catch the ball, then that's less the defense has to worry about.

#54 weepaws

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Posted 16 March 2017 - 12:13 PM

I agree with the post above.

Protecting him I think is the reason they would sign a player like Dunbar.

Who won't be a first and second down player but a third down Rb.

Yeah I'm not happy with this move.

I was targeting him has a fourth round or so Rb1 based on his Rec totals from last season, based in a ppr league.

I don't see him having 58 targets now with Dunbar on the team, I would think that's the reason they sign him.

Also pass blocking skills come into play, so maybe that's another reason.

#55 Frozenbeernuts

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Posted 16 March 2017 - 12:19 PM

Why protect him though? I didn't know he needed protecting. A teams goal should be to win, which usually means getting the best players on the team the ball now. Yes Gurley is really young and I can see not wanting to run him into the ground, but if anything receiving the ball seems like a less taxing way to get him touches. If anything I would sign someone to take away carries which takes more toll on the body than being tackled more often by corner backs.

Imo they should have kept Cunningham who is as good of a receiver and a lot better between the tackles than Dunbar. Dunbar is another option in the pass game, not a player who is so good that they just forget Gurley even has a pair of hands.

#56 lesjroza

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Posted 16 March 2017 - 12:37 PM

I think Dunbar does indeed hurt Gurley in ppr.

Darn it anyway.

 

For clarification in my post regarding Dunbar I wasn't trying to communicate that I think Dunbar is special so Gurleys value should go down, don't misunderstand.

 

I think the Rams singing Dunbar is an indication of the intent to use someone other than Gurley on 3rd downs, because I don't see his value to the team otherwise. In other words, I see the Rams taking FF value away from Gurley not Dunbar. Dunbar isn't really all that special and he gets hurt a lot. Maybe they draft a 3rd down RB though too. Its up to Gurley to take it back, either by his play or it could happen by lack of other options. Just reading the tea leaves I'm not factoring many catches in which makes him a no touch at his current price in redraft for me.



#57 weepaws

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Posted 16 March 2017 - 01:15 PM

I'm not saying Dunbar is special either.

But I do think he was sign to play in third down situations.

I for one don't like it, because I like the fact that Gurley had 58 targets last season.

I play in ppr leagues, so for me I saw a forth round Rb1.

In non ppr leagues Dunbar playing for the Rams shouldn't hurt Gurley but in ppr leagues it sure does.

#58 Ray_T

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Posted 16 March 2017 - 01:16 PM

I think Dunbar is a situational back.  

 

That does not mean he will take a lot of snaps from Gurley.

 

I could see some third down sets where both are in the backfield and one or both split out to become receivers (thus putting pressure on LB's and Safeties in terms of getting coverage)

 

This is what I think they will do.

 

it will prevent double teams on WR's (not that that is a huge concern on this team) and it will make it tougher for the defense to blitz.   (more likely the primary concern with the team having a young QB projected to be the starter)

 

If the LB's on the opposing team are not up to the task, this could create some mismatches in the pass game on third downs.

 

That is the role I see for Dunbar.


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#59 Frozenbeernuts

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Posted 16 March 2017 - 02:41 PM

I am still not seeing why Dunbar is signed to take away from Gurley. He is a capable better than average pass catching rb. A nice dynamic to have. Sometimes to play on 3rd down in place of Gurley, sometimes I'm other downs as another option the defense has to pay attention to. But maybe I am not looking deep enough into it.

#60 weepaws

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Posted 16 March 2017 - 02:59 PM

I think Gulry will indeed improve on his rush numbers.

I'm having a tough time seeing him have a 3.1 ypc again.

So that should make help his point total.
But for me in ppr those 43 points from his rec totals sure looked good.

He scored only 6 tds total last season, and I'm not to sure I see him scoring more than that this season.

So it's an interesting development for me.

#61 TBayXXXVII

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Posted 17 March 2017 - 09:53 AM

I can't buy that at all. Not even one bit. He is a football player who theoretically does good stuff with the ball in his hands. That means the team should do their best to get him the ball often. As long as he isn't Alfred Morris bad at receiving, he should be given receptions to increase the overall dynamic of the offense. If they know he isn't much of a threat to catch the ball, then that's less the defense has to worry about.

 

I personally don't think Gurley is "special" in any way.  I think he's a perfectly acceptable back. Average.  Which is fine, but those types of backs need help.  For Gurley, maybe it's simply maximizing his skills running while not taking the extra pounding that comes with pass catching.



#62 Ray_T

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Posted 17 March 2017 - 10:33 AM

 

I personally don't think Gurley is "special" in any way.  I think he's a perfectly acceptable back. Average.  Which is fine, but those types of backs need help.  For Gurley, maybe it's simply maximizing his skills running while not taking the extra pounding that comes with pass catching.

I really dont think the pass catching portion adds the same wear and tear.

 

when you run, you are mostly being tackled by the 300+ lb linemen who. 

 

when you catch, you are getting tackled by 200 lb DB's and Safeties and 240 lb linebackers.   I'd say overall that the wear and tear is not quite the same.

 

I really dont think that is the reason.  Honestly I think Dunbar is a situational player.  It wouldnt surprise me if he's on the field at the same time as Gurley as an extra pass catcher on third downs or in other passing situations, and he wont take much from Gurley at all.   But from a matchup perspective, it makes it tougher on opposing LB's and Safeties who have to make sure their coverages are on par. 

 

While I still wouldnt draft Gurley as a RB1 (for me he's a mid to high ranking RB2), This signing really does not affect where I would rank Gurley.


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#63 Frozenbeernuts

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Posted 17 March 2017 - 10:46 AM

 
I personally don't think Gurley is "special" in any way.  I think he's a perfectly acceptable back. Average.  Which is fine, but those types of backs need help.  For Gurley, maybe it's simply maximizing his skills running while not taking the extra pounding that comes with pass catching.


Ok well this at least makes more sense why you think Dunbar will have a good sized affect on his value. I was assuming everyone pretty much agreed he was elite. There is no buying opportunity from his dynasty owners really since they see his value as near equal to the best running backs

#64 Ray_T

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Posted 17 March 2017 - 11:45 AM

Ok well this at least makes more sense why you think Dunbar will have a good sized affect on his value. I was assuming everyone pretty much agreed he was elite. There is no buying opportunity from his dynasty owners really since they see his value as near equal to the best running backs

Gurley is a guy who has a low floor and a high ceiling.

 

his value is all over the map depending on who you talk to.

 

the unlucky thing is this:

 

most times, a player like this inevitably ends up in the hands of one of those people who do think he is elite.  so the asking price is usually far beyond what you are willing to pay.

 

but it does pay to inquire.  you never know.


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#65 weepaws

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Posted 17 March 2017 - 11:51 AM

Adding Dunbar does indeed hurt Gurleys value for me.

Again in ppr it has to.

Dunbar is going to be used in the passing game, and I do think it's to limit the amount of pounding to Gurley.

So it does indeed force me to change my value ranking of him.

But I dot think Gurleys rushing numbers should improve over last season, just no way he's ypc is once again 3.1.

#66 Maulers1973

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Posted 21 March 2017 - 09:38 AM

The coach will help, signing Whitworth at T and Woods at WR (good blocking WR) will help.   I'm not worried about Dunbar.  Though, they still need a viable center.  I'm somewhat surprised that they haven't signed Mangold.  He'd be a great pickup!!  



#67 Ray_T

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Posted 23 March 2017 - 07:19 AM

The coach will help, signing Whitworth at T and Woods at WR (good blocking WR) will help.   I'm not worried about Dunbar.  Though, they still need a viable center.  I'm somewhat surprised that they haven't signed Mangold.  He'd be a great pickup!!  

I'm hoping they draft one.   I think there are one or two in the draft that could plug and play.    So long as the guy they draft is at least adequate in his rookie year, that would be an upgrade on what they had, and then they will have a young guy to build around. 

 

That would mean they have upgraded LT and C.  Assuming one of the tackles from last year can switch over to guard and do a good job, then that will open up a lot of options for the team.

 

coaches can adjust scheme to cover up the weaknesses of one player on the line.  Maybe even two.  but when more than two players on the line have issues, you cant cover up anything.   The line as a whole is just bad.   And that is where the Rams were last year.     This line is a work in progress, and the guy they have signed at LT is good, but he's getting on in age.  I suspect this is just a band aid solution that will buy the current management a couple of years.  It does not diminish the need of the team to shore up the line through the draft.


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#68 lesjroza

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Posted 25 March 2017 - 03:04 PM

"Rams coach Sean McVay expects to use Lance Dunbar as a third-down back.

Dunbar should have a role similar to Chris Thompson in Washington. It's a downgrade to Todd Gurley's outlook, with Dunbar likely to play in all pass situations. Dunbar was phased out in Dallas last year, but averaged five catches per game before going down in 2015."
 
Rotoworld
 
Full ESPN article
 


#69 Frozenbeernuts

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Posted 25 March 2017 - 03:45 PM


"Rams coach Sean McVay expects to use Lance Dunbar as a third-down back.
Dunbar should have a role similar to Chris Thompson in Washington. It's a downgrade to Todd Gurley's outlook, with Dunbar likely to play in all pass situations. Dunbar was phased out in Dallas last year, but averaged five catches per game before going down in 2015."

 

Rotoworld

 

Full ESPN article

 

http://www.espn.com/...rb-lance-dunbar


I hope McVay isn't that dumb. Some third down work for Dunbar, it makes perfect sense. The vast majority of 3rd down work, Dunbar is nothing compares to Gurley with the ball in his hands.

#70 Ray_T

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Posted 25 March 2017 - 06:09 PM

I hope McVay isn't that dumb. Some third down work for Dunbar, it makes perfect sense. The vast majority of 3rd down work, Dunbar is nothing compares to Gurley with the ball in his hands.

Teams always talk up the backup during the offseason.   Say they are gonna give the starter less carries to keep him 'fresh'.   But that talk rarely turns into anything more than talk once the regular season starts.


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#71 DrG

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Posted 25 March 2017 - 06:38 PM

Les thanks for posting the DJ comparison with and without Johnson. i think it unwise not to drop Gurley down on the board a bit

#72 Frozenbeernuts

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Posted 25 March 2017 - 06:47 PM

If I was McVay I would talk up Dunbar's workload to motivate Gurley.

#73 weepaws

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Posted 25 March 2017 - 10:02 PM

I can diffently see this being the case.

Makes since, why else would they pick up Dunbar.

He's not a good Rb ,but when used in the passing game he has been serviceable.