Instant Fantasy Analysis - TE O.J. Howard, Bucs

[The Football Guru 211]

If you didn't like Jameis Winston as your fantasy quarterback before, you might want to reconsider. Tight end wasn't exactly a need position for the Buccaneers, but the thought of Mike Evans and DeSean Jackson opening up the middle of the field for Howard obviously was too appealing for them to pass up. Howard also turned himself into a very good blocker over the last part of his career at Alabama, meaning he won't be coming off the field very often for Tampa Bay. Rookie tight ends rarely perform well in fantasy, but Howard isn't going to be the typical rookie tight end. With Evans and Jackson on the outside and Winston having a history of leaning on his tight end, Howard is going to have a good chance to buck that trend. Cameron Brate will settle into a true backup role, and Brate's 2016 numbers should be considered Howard's floor as a rookie.

[Marshall 98]

Nice analysis, thanks.

[weepaws 2,456]

Rookie TE's tend to have a slow time adjusting to the NFL, so do you for sure see him being the number one go to Te in his rookie year over Brate?

[The Football Guru 211]

Rookie TE's tend to have a slow time adjusting to the NFL, so do you for sure see him being the number one go to Te in his rookie year over Brate?

It's hard to account for how quickly a guy is going to learn the playbook, but I would assume Howard is smart enough to do it. I think he'll be the clear No. 1 TE for Tampa, although it is possible now TB could go more two TE sets to make up for the lack of a stud slot.

[BobSanders_33 127]

Strange fit to me. I really liked with Brate was doing last year. I think his blocking presence will add to the running game. I'm interested to see if TB picks a back of the future in the 2nd or 3rd.

[Gepetto 982]

Why, Doug Martin is still young and good.

[rholio 339]

Why, Doug Martin is still young and good.

 

And suspended once again.

[Frozenbeernuts 1,652]

Idk if it's the tight ends fault that they take longer to develop. It is true that they usually don't have impact right away, but it may be more how they are used. Howard is a pretty exceptional talent, so maybe he bucks a trend?

[TBayXXXVII 2,108]

 

And suspended once again.

 

When was the first time?

[TBayXXXVII 2,108]

If you didn't like Jameis Winston as your fantasy quarterback before, you might want to reconsider. Tight end wasn't exactly a need position for the Buccaneers, but the thought of Mike Evans and DeSean Jackson opening up the middle of the field for Howard obviously was too appealing for them to pass up. Howard also turned himself into a very good blocker over the last part of his career at Alabama, meaning he won't be coming off the field very often for Tampa Bay. Rookie tight ends rarely perform well in fantasy, but Howard isn't going to be the typical rookie tight end. With Evans and Jackson on the outside and Winston having a history of leaning on his tight end, Howard is going to have a good chance to buck that trend. Cameron Brate will settle into a true backup role, and Brate's 2016 numbers should be considered Howard's floor as a rookie.

 

Winston was going to be fine with what they had, but would have been much better off with a WR than a TE. A WR would have had a quicker assimilation into the NFL than a TE. Not saying there was one available to take when they picked, just that even a 2nd round WR would likely help Winston more than Howard.

 

Last year Brate had 57 receptions for 660 yards and 8 TD's. The only way for Howard's floor to be that, he'd essentially have to have the best rookie season for a TE all-time... considering no rookie TE ever accomplished that.

 

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/play-index/psl_finder.cgi?request=1&match=single&year_min=1970&year_max=2017&season_start=1&season_end=1&age_min=0&age_max=0&pos=te&c1stat=rec&c1comp=gt&c1val=57&c2stat=rec_yds&c2comp=gt&c2val=660&c3stat=rec_td&c3comp=gt&c3val=8&c4stat=choose&c4comp=gt&c5comp=choose&c5gtlt=lt&c6mult=1.0&c6comp=choose&order_by=rec_yds&draft=0&draft_year_min=1936&draft_year_max=2016&draft_slot_min=1&draft_slot_max=500&draft_pick_in_round=pick_overall&conference=any&draft_pos=qb&draft_pos=rb&draft_pos=wr&draft_pos=te&draft_pos=e&draft_pos=t&draft_pos=g&draft_pos=c&draft_pos=ol&draft_pos=dt&draft_pos=de&draft_pos=dl&draft_pos=ilb&draft_pos=olb&draft_pos=lb&draft_pos=cb&draft_pos=s&draft_pos=db&draft_pos=k&draft_pos=p

[lesjroza 70]

 

Winston was going to be fine with what they had, but would have been much better off with a WR than a TE. A WR would have had a quicker assimilation into the NFL than a TE. Not saying there was one available to take when they picked, just that even a 2nd round WR would likely help Winston more than Howard.

 

Last year Brate had 57 receptions for 660 yards and 8 TD's. The only way for Howard's floor to be that, he'd essentially have to have the best rookie season for a TE all-time... considering no rookie TE ever accomplished that.

 

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/play-index/psl_finder.cgi?request=1&match=single&year_min=1970&year_max=2017&season_start=1&season_end=1&age_min=0&age_max=0&pos=te&c1stat=rec&c1comp=gt&c1val=57&c2stat=rec_yds&c2comp=gt&c2val=660&c3stat=rec_td&c3comp=gt&c3val=8&c4stat=choose&c4comp=gt&c5comp=choose&c5gtlt=lt&c6mult=1.0&c6comp=choose&order_by=rec_yds&draft=0&draft_year_min=1936&draft_year_max=2016&draft_slot_min=1&draft_slot_max=500&draft_pick_in_round=pick_overall&conference=any&draft_pos=qb&draft_pos=rb&draft_pos=wr&draft_pos=te&draft_pos=e&draft_pos=t&draft_pos=g&draft_pos=c&draft_pos=ol&draft_pos=dt&draft_pos=de&draft_pos=dl&draft_pos=ilb&draft_pos=olb&draft_pos=lb&draft_pos=cb&draft_pos=s&draft_pos=db&draft_pos=k&draft_pos=p

 

 

Always depends entirely on what you want to do with your offense. TE has the ability to contribute in multiple areas and this particular TE has a chance to contribute heavily in both, potentially in short order. I don't know if he will have immediate FF success, odds say no, but that doesn't mean a WR who could achieve more statically would have been a better choice. OJH will have to be accounted for as both as a receiver and a blocker. A more threatening running game opens things up more for Evans/Djax. The LB who can cover OJ may be a mismatched as a defender in the run game or vice-verse in the pass game. I like the choice a lot for them as a team and I think he was a steal at that slot, they had to be over the moon when he was still there.

[TBayXXXVII 2,108]

 

 

Always depends entirely on what you want to do with your offense. TE has the ability to contribute in multiple areas and this particular TE has a chance to contribute heavily in both, potentially in short order. I don't know if he will have immediate FF success, odds say no, but that doesn't mean a WR who could achieve more statically would have been a better choice. OJH will have to be accounted for as both as a receiver and a blocker. A more threatening running game opens things up more for Evans/Djax. The LB who can cover OJ may be a mismatched as a defender in the run game or vice-verse in the pass game. I like the choice a lot for them as a team and I think he was a steal at that slot, they had to be over the moon when he was still there.

 

Brate is a very good blocker and pass catcher... no matter what Howard brings, it will be a downgrade. Brate's numbers last year are better than what any rookie TE has EVER done. There's a 0% chance that in 2017, the Bucs offense would be better than it could have been with Brate and a slot WR than they will be with a 2 TE set. TE's always take time to adjust to the NFL, so any upgrade he provides won't happen until later in the season. I don't doubt he could be great, but as I said, from a Buccaneers (not fantasy), perspective, he's a luxury pick that Tampa really isn't in a position to afford.

[lesjroza 70]

 

Brate is a very good blocker and pass catcher... no matter what Howard brings, it will be a downgrade. Brate's numbers last year are better than what any rookie TE has EVER done. There's a 0% chance that in 2017, the Bucs offense would be better than it could have been with Brate and a slot WR than they will be with a 2 TE set. TE's always take time to adjust to the NFL, so any upgrade he provides won't happen until later in the season. I don't doubt he could be great, but as I said, from a Buccaneers (not fantasy), perspective, he's a luxury pick that Tampa really isn't in a position to afford.

 

Agreed, I like Brate as an NFL player he is a hard worker, has good hands, and is an efficient pass catcher. There is not that much space between what we are saying. I do not think Brate posses the athletic upside Howard does in the future though, and I suspect plan A is to have both on the field at the same time. I think Koetter would prefer to set up the pass using the run rather than the reverse.

 

The primary difference in our opinion comes down to whether a slot WR can do the things Howard can..................take a look at these clips vs Auburn (whose athletes are nothing to sneeze at). TB might need a Hines Ward as their slot WR in order to be as effective. In fact........................... that's my new comp for what I think Howard can be as a difference maker to an NFL offense...........Hines Ward.

 

http://draftbreakdown.com/video/o-j-howard-vs-auburn-2016/

 

Also FWIW looking at these clips understand this is a single game..............then tell me why some people say Howard was not a focal point of the offense. Those people only look at stats not film, Howard was crucial to EVERYTHING they were trying to do in his time there. He was possibly THE focal point depending how you look at it.

[The Football Guru 211]

My prediction for Howard (which was admittedly very optimistic) is/was based on two things: Howard is well ahead of most rookie tight ends and Winston loves throwing to his tight ends. If the Bucs go heavy with two-tight personnel, then Howard probably isn't going to reach Brate's 2016 numbers. If the Bucs go more three-wide, then I think my rookie projection of Howard may not be far off.

[lesjroza 70]

My prediction for Howard (which was admittedly very optimistic) is/was based on two things: Howard is well ahead of most rookie tight ends and Winston loves throwing to his tight ends. If the Bucs go heavy with two-tight personnel, then Howard probably isn't going to reach Brate's 2016 numbers. If the Bucs go more three-wide, then I think my rookie projection of Howard may not be far off.

 

Per PFF below, and I personally expect this number to go way up with the addition of Howard.......OJ motioning, lining up at H-back, out wide, in the slot, and yes in-line too.....the tape vs Auburn is a good approximation of how he will be used IMO, its all right there no projecting how he will translate necessary.

 

 

More

How much does the arrival of O.J. Howard hurt Cameron Brate? The Buccaneers used multi-TE sets on 29% of snaps in 2016 (NFL average = 20%)

[Smileseers 54]

 

Last year Brate had 57 receptions for 660 yards and 8 TD's. The only way for Howard's floor to be that, he'd essentially have to have the best rookie season for a TE all-time... considering no rookie TE ever accomplished that.

 

 

The best rookie season for a TE all-time is still Mike Ditka with 56 receptions for 1,076 yards and 12 TDs.

 

I don't see the Bucs competing for a Super Bowl this year regardless of this year's draft. I think they got a solid piece in OJH to compete for a ring in years to come. Bucs are building in the right direction in my opinion.

[weepaws 2,456]

He's more talented than Brate.

 

I think he is.

 

Can't see Brate disappearing, so this season in a redraft league this te situation will be very frustrating.

[DrG 94]

Mike Williams and Whatever rb who stays healthy will be the biggest beneficiaries of the new talent added to the offense.

 

DJax will be used a little more as a decoy to clear underneath routes. Speed still there but they have to keep him healthy

[weepaws 2,456]

Winston will be the biggest beneficiary.

[Ray_T 588]

He's more talented than Brate.

 

I think he is.

 

Can't see Brate disappearing, so this season in a redraft league this te situation will be very frustrating.

Yes, I have to agree.

 

I got talking to someone who had seen this kid play in college, and decided to review some film. I dont think there is any question he has more talent than Brate. And I think the skillset will transfer over to the NFL very quickly. You dont see TE's developed to this point in college very often (if at all)

 

Dont get me wrong. I like Brate a lot, but I dont truly believe the talent compares.

 

Another guy I spoke to (who is a big bucs fan) seems to think they will use a lot of two TE sets, and with both of those guys on the roster, I dont see why they wouldnt.

 

They already use 2 TE sets more than the average team. I'd bet that this will just push them further into that direction (in terms of playcalling)

 

Anyhow, I'm calling it now, this kid will be draftable, however, because he is a rookie, I'd have a spare TE on the roster early in the season, as it is still possible the first 3-4 games will be subpar for this kid.

[The Football Guru 211]

 

 

More

How much does the arrival of O.J. Howard hurt Cameron Brate? The Buccaneers used multi-TE sets on 29% of snaps in 2016 (NFL average = 20%)

 

Here's the only thing I'll say to this stat: Can you (without looking it up) name me the Bucs' primary slot receiver last year? I think the lack of a good third receiver had as much to do with that high number as anything. With that said, I would expect that number to go up next year as well.

[ROCKFORD 134]

good thread

 

dynasty experts had him a 1.6 before the draft. where do i need to trade up get him?

[Frozenbeernuts 1,652]

good thread

 

dynasty experts had him a 1.6 before the draft. where do i need to trade up get him?

1.01 is the only pick guaranteed to have him

[Maulers1973 117]

Here's the only thing I'll say to this stat: Can you (without looking it up) name me the Bucs' primary slot receiver last year? I think the lack of a good third receiver had as much to do with that high number as anything. With that said, I would expect that number to go up next year as well.

 

No, but I remember him. Speedy, shifty little guy that I often considered in DFS. Was it Humphrey? I think it was.

[ROCKFORD 134]

1.01 is the only pick guaranteed to have him

 

im hoping to fudge a little.

[TimmySmith 2,782]

Howard parlayed a single great game into being a 1st round draft pick. Saban took the fall for not getting him the ball more. He was certainly no overachiever at Alabama and now there will be huge expectations.

[Frozenbeernuts 1,652]

Howard parlayed a single great game into being a 1st round draft pick. Saban took the fall for not getting him the ball more. He was certainly no overachiever at Alabama and now there will be huge expectations.

I think Saban criminally underused him. Forget how he can adapt to pro play, for a college player he should have been force fed

[lesjroza 70]

good thread

 

dynasty experts had him a 1.6 before the draft. where do i need to trade up get him?

 

You gotta know your league mates to make that call. Scoring and roster compositions probably also make a big difference but I doubt he goes any higher than 1.04 even in TE premium leagues. There is going to be a lot of variance between picks 1.04 and 1.08 to 1.10ish this year IMO, esp in TE premium leagues. OJ will probably go first among the TEs in most TE premies but it won't be a landslide, many guys will prefer Njoku, and a few may even draft Engram first. Its a good TE year.

[TBayXXXVII 2,108]

Just a word of caution to those in dynasty leagues. If you draft Howard, he won't be startable in his rookie season. He's going to be the 4th (at best), receiving option on the team and won't even be the starting TE on Day 1. "IF" he ever does start, it won't be until late in the season (or if Brate gets hurt), and TE's always start off slow. Colleges never really develop TE's because they don't seem to know how to. There's always a big learning curve / adjustment period. If Howard logs more than 30 receptions 400 yards and 3 TD's, I'll be shocked.

[weepaws 2,456]

Actually in a dynasty league I would have no hesitation in picking him up.

 

It's in a redraft league that I wouldn't touch him, unless Brate goes down.

[TBayXXXVII 2,108]

Actually in a dynasty league I would have no hesitation in picking him up.

 

It's in a redraft league that I wouldn't touch him, unless Brate goes down.

 

My point wasn't necessarily for long term, just this year. If you're looking at taking him top 5, I'd rather have a little more immediacy than 2018/2019. In the passer friendly NFL, we're seeing WR's rise quickly... while TE's still don't. I wouldn't take Howard over any WR, especially since TE's have a high bust rate, even the "projectable" one's like Ebron, Pettigrew, Seferian-Jenkins, and Gresham. I'd rather take a shot on a guy like Everett in the back end or free agency and use my 1st round pick on one of the RB's or WR's.

[Ray_T 588]

good thread

 

dynasty experts had him a 1.6 before the draft. where do i need to trade up get him?

It's a tough call. Many leagues undervalue the TE position. But I think it is definitely a know your league thing.

 

If there was one fantasy rookie I'd guess has a decent shot at slipping in a rookie draft, it would be this kid. Not because he's not talented, but because a lot of people dont place a high value on the TE position (with the possible exception of Gronk)