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sdmac

Keeper Decisions

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12 team league, .5 ppr, 100 yard rush/rec bonus and 300 yard passing bonus, big play bonus. 6pt TDs. I pick 11th.

 

1QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 2 FLEX, DST - got rid of kicker this season

 

We keep 4 players, and I'm already keeping:

 

Jeremy Hill (4th)

Demaryius T (6th)

Latavius Murray (12th)

 

Which 1 of the following would you keep? (round cost in parentheses)

 

Andrew Luck (2nd)

Lamar Miller (3rd)

Travis Kelce (9th)

 

All summer I've been thinking Kelce bc of the obvious value. I've been reconsidering Lamar lately because a quick mock with everyone's predicted keepers left me with a bare cupboard to choose from in the 3rd - which is more like the 5th in redraft leagues. (Desean Jax/Maclin types). I do love Kelce but TE is fairly replaceable, and with so many keepers RBs are at a higher premium than ever.

 

I also mocked myself drafting Luck or Rodgers in the 2nd, but I could assure Luck in the 2nd by keeping him.

 

Who would you keep?

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Man, kind of tough. I like the thought of keeping Luck, as i have not seen him last throught the 1st or 2nd round in any of my mocks. If you keep him and loose your 2nd pick, could you get a good RB better than Miller for your first pick? (personally I think you could, plus the fish are transitioning to a pass first offense.)

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In my personal mocks with everyone's predicted keepers included (including Luck for me in the 2nd), my only RB options that might fall in the first round are Forte and McCoy. BPA is likely one of Calvin J or AJ Green. The guy picking after me (last year's champ) has strong RB keepers as well as Russell Wilson, so I think he'll be targeting WRs at 1.12 and 2.1. I'm not very excited about Forte or McCoy this season. Even if i kept Luck and took Forte/McCoy in the first, that leaves a giant hole in the 3rd round as well as setting up last year's champ for another big run with 2 top-end WRs.

 

I tried some different mock scenarios last night, and found that the cutoff of 1st/2nd round (by ADP) unkept players basically ends at 2.1. My 2nd round options at 2.2 would likely be Brandin Cooks/Emmanuel Sanders/Kelvin B. That assumes that Luck and Rodgers do not fall to me, which they probably would not.

 

At this point I'm leaning Miller and thinking that I'll look for a QB in the Rivers/Tannehill/Eli range later in the draft.

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After that more detailed reasoning I can understand why you are leaning towards Miller. Makes sense to be loaded at RB then take a C Johnson or AJ first round to pair with DT and a Cooks or KB. Or even an Alshon, Hopkins or Maclin if available.

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Draft isn't until Labor Day weekend (keepers due 24 hours prior to draft) so maybe things will get shaken up a bit, but Hopkins and Alshon are both likely kept already. I'd jump all over either if they weren't kept but what can you do.

 

I guess it comes down to would I be happier with:

 

QB: Rivers/Eli/Tanny/etc (basically QB streaming which is always a headache but doable)

RB: Lamar/JHill/Latavius

WR: Calvin/DT/Cooks

 

or

 

QB: Luck

RB: JHill/Latavius

WR: AJ Green/DT - then using my 3rd rounder on BPA (but 'who' is the big question in this scenario)

 

we are replacing kickers with an extra RB/WR/TE flex spot this year, so I think the more high-end RB/WRs the better.

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bump for more opinions? keeper deadline approaching soon.

 

i will help you with your ?? as well.

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