2018 Preakness Stakes

[tubby_mcgee 686]

Chalk.

Well, that is if Justify's foot is truly healed. They would never tell you in a million years. If it was bad bad...they'd scratch him. But if if was "sorta bad" and they thought they could win by patching the crack or covering the bruise, they will.

 

If he runs poorly, they just say "He re-aggravated it"

If he runs fine, they say nothing.

Then, same story at Belmont. If he wins Belmont, and is going to continue racing (I was surprised that American Pharoah continued--but that was all Ahmed Zayat), then they will give him a long break (to both heal the foot and to actually give him a rest) and not mention anything of it. They can't even say "Yeah Jeez.....that was touch-n-go. We patched it and hoped for the best". PETA would flip the fock out and then call the entire racing industry liars, etc.....

In summary...we don't truly know if its a non-issue or not.

 

That being said...there hasn't been as much hype about triple crown contender (coming into Derby) since Point Given or Big Brown. AP had some hype...but not quite like this.

Here are the morning line odds. Justify will be closer to 1/5 at post time, IMO.

 

Justify (1-2)
Good Magic (3-1)
Quip (12-1)
Lone Sailor (15-1)
Bravazo (20-1)
Tenfold (20-1)
Diamond King (30-1)
Sporting Chance (30-1)

 

 

So...history says repeat of top 2 at Derby. So....I'm guessing an exacta will pay 4-1 or so (that is if its Justify over Good Magic).

Anyways...not gonna get into a bunch more yakking.

1.) Justify

2.) Good Magic

3.) Quip

4.) Bravazo

 

My 2 bets will be: (total $250)

 

1.) $100 straight exacta, Justify over Good Magic.

2.) $50 Trifecta Wheel ($150 bet)

Win - Justify

Place - Good Magic

Show - Quip/Bravazo/Sporting Chance

 

 

[Gepetto 979]

Is your wheel bet going to be that Good Magic has to finish 2nd/place? I could see Quip getting 2nd.

 

I'm thinking.

 

1. Justify

2. Quip

3. Good Magic

 

Or

 

1. Justify

2. Good Magic

3. Quip

 

And then I have a lot of research still to do on the rest. I like your wheel approach but though it could shuffle any of the horses after 1. Justify between 2. and 3.

[Baker Boy 1,477]

I will play a Justify/all exacta the amount of the bet is still undetermined

I havent formulated any other bets yet.

[tubby_mcgee 686]

I've always thought an ALL/Heavy Favorite bet is a sneaky sort of bet. Like...Gepetto said "Any of the rest have a chance for 2nd...."

Well, if Justify falters a bit....and runs second, you'll hit bigger priced exacta, because "any of the rest" would now have a chance for first.

Dunno. Just a strategy I've used a few times with a heavy betting favorite.

 

And also, if that holds true...ya might as well go ALL/Justify/ALL and hit the trifecta.

 

Basically, if Justify has a hiccup, the next logical place is 2nd. I just talked myself into that bet. lol. I'll modify my others and keep my bet total around $250

[TimmySmith 2,782]

Past Performances

 

http://www.brisnet.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/05/Preakness18.pdf

 

There always must be a great reason to go against the Derby winner in the Preakness. There isn't in this race, although Good Magic may exact some revenge. Can't imagine a world where they don't finish 1-2. Track conditions will be almost identical to the KD.

 

Not many horses so the lines will be sharp. 7 (Justify) - 5 (Good Magic) -1 (Quip) or 5-7-1. If you want to throw some loot at a longshot Diamond King (4) is the way to go.

[listen2me 23 1,534]

Lone Sailor FTW

[Hardcore troubadour 12,589]

Threw a 20 spot on Bravaso. Along with some multi horse bets.

[shotsup 830]

7/5/8

 

7 / all box

[shotsup 830]

Past Performances

 

http://www.brisnet.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/05/Preakness18.pdf

 

There always must be a great reason to go against the Derby winner in the Preakness. There isn't in this race, although Good Magic may exact some revenge. Can't imagine a world where they don't finish 1-2. Track conditions will be almost identical to the KD.

 

Not many horses so the lines will be sharp. 7 (Justify) - 5 (Good Magic) -1 (Quip) or 5-7-1. If you want to throw some loot at a longshot Diamond King (4) is the way to go.

You there ?

[shotsup 830]

7/5/8

 

 

Looked good for awhile

[Hardcore troubadour 12,589]

Nothin. Missed the perfecta by a long nose.

[drobeski 3,061]

5 stood up, fixed

[bandrus1 413]

Justified looks unbelievable

[frank 2,144]

Justified looks unbelievable

Never saw it. He was good on The Shield though.

[dain11279 927]

Blah, everything paid sh1t

[shotsup 830]

Blah, everything paid sh1t

Broke even