2015 No-Hassle June Mock Analysis

[Fumbleweed 421]

Coming at the conclusion of the draft...

[WhiteWonder 2,170]

I'll do some analysis as well. I'll make my own thread. Always look forward to your thoughts fumble

[RicemanX 20]

And I'll...read them

[Fumbleweed 421]

Is the Analysis post showing up crazy for anyone else? Is that fix-able?

[Fumbleweed 421]

JScott:

 

1.01- QB Andrew Luck, Ind.

2.12- WR Alshon Jeffery, Chi.

3.01- WR Mike Evans, TB

4.12- RB Jonathan Stewart, Car.

5.01- RB Andre Ellington, Ari.

6.12- RB Giovani Bernard, Cin.

7.01- RB Isaiah Crowell, Cle.

8.12- TE Julius Thomas, Jax.

9.01- WR Allen Robinson, Jax.

10.12- WR Kendall Wright, Ten.

11.01- WR Eric Decker, NYJ

12.12- TE Kyle Rudolph, Min.

13.01- QB Joe Flacco, Bal.

14.12- D/ST, Philadelphia Eagles

15.01- K Connor Barth, Den.

16.12- WR Brian Quick, Stl.

 

Analysis: In all the years we've been doing this draft together, I can't remember a year in which a quarterback was taken with the first overall pick. Luck's selection, thus, made this entire draft fascinating to watch from that point forward. Even if the running backs on this team can remain healthy (there's a history of injury with a few of them), this team is probably going to do most of its scoring from the QB and WR positions. There's a lot of quality depth on this team, even if the overall roster lacks star power outside of Luck. The challege for JScott is that he needs a lot of young quarterbacks to be good if he's going to excel. Drafting Mike Evans, Julius Thomas, Allen Robinson, Kendall Wright, and Eric Decker essentially means drafting their QBs as well and Winston, Bortles, Mariota, and Geno Smith are still pretty raw and either largely or completely unproven. That along with the oft-injured RB group makes this team about as high-risk as you'll find this year in the No-Hassle league. All the pieces could fall in place for this team certainly, but there are a lot of moving parts that need to settle.

 

Key to No-Hassle Success: I think I already stated it above. Can the young QBs who serve as the pitchers to JScott's "catchers" get those guys the ball? And, can this team stay healthy? I don't lack in faith in what Jonathan Stewart and Andre Ellington can do if they combine for 30+ healthy games...but if one or both were to miss significant time, the burden for scoring would fall to players on the wrong side of timeshares most likely. There really isn't one "key" to success for this team. It's going to take a combination of factors for them to be a contender. The good news is that Luck is in the absolute sweet spot of his career and is almost certain to meet expectations for the most part.

Favorite pick: I really like JScott's second half of the draft. I thought he added a lot of good depth to his roster as insurance in case plan A were to go south. Flacco and Rudolph were good value picks late to be sure.

 

Least Favorite pick: Probably Ellington. I thought the Luck pick ended up costing him all throughout the draft in terms of compiling talent, but Luck will be terrific, so hard to fault that pick entirely. I question Ellington's ability to handle a double-digit carry workload game in and game out.

 

Overall outlook: This team is not one of the "top" teams in terms of who I think will ultimately contend for a No-Hassle title. JScott may end up leading the league in points scored from a QB during the season, but with every other team getting their best ball result from two quarterbacks, I don't think the gap will be wide enough to justify the means. Still, there are a lot of players on this team in the prime of their careers, and that's never a bad thing. If Kevin White can take some coverage away from Jeffery in Chicago and Jameis Winston can develop a rapport with Mike Evans, JScott could have two top-ten WRs on his team. With Luck in the fold, that might be enough to remain competitive through December.

 

Fumbleweed:

 

1.02- RB Jamaal Charles, KC

2.11- WR Randall Cobb, GB

3.02- RB Carlos Hyde, SF

4.11- WR DeSean Jackson, Was.

5.02- QB Peyton Manning, Den.

6.11- RB Joique Bell, Det.

7.02- RB Ameer Abdullah, Det.

8.11- WR Mike Wallace, Min.

9.02- WR Brandon Lafell, NE

10.11- TE Dwayne Allen, Ind.

11.02- RB Knile Davis, KC

12.11- QB Teddy Bridgewater, Min.

13.02- TE Tyler Eifert, Cin.

14.11- WR Donte Moncrief, Ind.

15.02- K Mason Crosby, GB

16.11- D/ST, Arizona Cardinals

 

Analysis: Most years, guys salivate over having a top-three pick in redrafts, but I'm not sure it's the place to be after watching things unfold in this year's June Mock. This team is a hearty mixture of young players and veterans and there's certainly an explosive element potentially in play with respect to weekly scoring. But, the team is also a bit disjointed in the sense that there's really no strength you can point to as the foundation of the team. The selections of Knile Davis late and the two Lion RBs before him do insure that this team can withstand injury at that position. And, there is solid depth at the other positions as well. But, the WRs and TEs on this team are below average, meaning that the Peyton Manning of 2015 must resemble the Peyton Manning we saw during the first half of 2014 and not the last. Otherwise, a huge burden will be cast upon Jamaal Charles to be the best at his position and Randall Cobb to be one of the top half-dozen wideouts. All three positive outcomes are possible, but if only one of the three positive outcomes comes to pass, this ship will almost certainly sink. This team was built with the No-Hassle concept in mind. There are just questions about the assembly that bear watching.

 

Key to No-Hassle Success: I mentioned Manning, but I also think Carlos Hyde is a big part of the success-fail mechanism of this team. Hyde looked good last season in limited action, but the changes to the 49ers this offseason were not flattering on either side of the ball, which makes Hyde's early selection a pretty risk one to say the least. I don't think Hyde needs to exceed his draft position in terms of production this season for my team to contend, but I do think he must meet the expectations that go with his draft spot. Other than Manning and Hyde, you pretty much know what you're getting with this team...so they are the true variables in the overall equation.

 

Favorite pick: I was really pleased with the Knile Davis pick late as I initially thought I had waited too long to get him. Then to add Bridgewater in the next round was equally exciting for me as I like his prospects should Manning struggle.

Least Favorite pick: This would easily be DeSean Jackson. Not that I would go back and change it...I just thought the talent dropped off a cliff right before that pick and I was left with options that were far less than ideal, including Jackson.

Overall outlook: This team can compete for a No-Hassle title, I believe, but if I were given the option of trading it for one of a couple of other teams, I would make the trade. I think much of that stems from my discovery regarding redraft positioning this season. Jamaal Charles simply isn't much more valuable that any of the next 6-8 guys picked after him and the selections of Hyde and Jackson were reflections of being in the wrong spot at the wrong time. I do think the depth of this team will make it a quiet title contender, but finishing top-five would probably be considered a successful season when all is said and done looking at things realistically.

The Football Guru:

 

1.03- RB Marshawn Lynch, Sea.

2.10- WR A.J. Green, Cin.

3.03- WR DeAndre Hopkins, Hou.

4.10- RB T.J. Yeldon, Jax.

5.03- RB Jospeh Randle, Dal.

6.10- TE Martellus Bennett, Chi.

7.03- WR Vincent Jackson, TB

8.10- QB Philip Rivers, SD

9.03- TE Antonio Gates, SD

10.10- RB Shane Vereen, NYG

11.03- WR John Brown, Ari.

12.10- RB Matt Jones, Was.

13.03- QB Carson Palmer, Ari.

14.10- WR Stevie Johnson, SD

15.03- K Adam Vinatieri, Ind.

16.10- D/ST, Denver Broncos

 

Analysis: Last year, I questioned whether or not it was a good idea to build a team around Marshawn Lynch. After all, there was plenty of mileage on the tires so to speak and a downturn in production was a near certainty at some point in the season. That "downturn" never happened and Lynch did indeed anchor several of my teams. So, do not count me among those who say Lynch is due to slow down this year. I'll believe it when I see it. The rest of this team is quite young at RB and WR and quite old at QB and TE. The fourth and fifth round picks of Yeldon and Randle are almost certain to define this team as will be noted in more detail below. Beyond that, it looked like a value-based draft with rounds 6-10 including players with fairly low ceilings followed by a couple of upside picks in Brown and Jones. While the overall mixture isn't exciting from my perspective, you would be hard pressed to criticize this draft beyond that point of contention. There is both stability and upside at the RB position. The top two WRs are the undisputed #1 targets on their respective teams. And, the QBs and TEs are proven. For a guy thrown into this draft at the last minute, Guru did a pretty good job building a cohesive group.

 

Key to No-Hassle Success: It's not rocket science. Guru spent his fourth and fifth round picks on two RBs with little to no experience carrying the load on a weekly basis. If neither end up producing the way he hopes they will, his season will likely be sunk. If one produces with some vigor, this team finishes middle of the pack. But, if he's right about both guys, the success of this team could be more substantial. The stability of the later round picks insures that. Sure, injuries could de-rail this team just as it could any team, but aside from Carson Palmer, there's not much history of that sitting on the roster. So, it just comes down to two young running backs trying to find their way in this league...

Favorite pick: I thought Hopkins was a pretty solid choice. The force-feeding of Andre Johnson sometimes made Hopkins an afterthought in Houston the past two years. No more. I am expecting a true breakout season if QB doesn't hold things back.

Least Favorite pick: I thought Martellus Bennett went too early. He's not a sixth-round level talent in a redraft. He's reliable and proved to be very productive last season in the red zone, but his yardage totals this year could sag, making his early selection a questionable one.

 

Overall outlook: Hard to really pin down where this team is headed in terms of production and sustainability. I think there is a foundation in place for success, but bets have been placed on players that are entirely unproven at this point and that leaves one to ponder. A.J. Green has become pedestrian enough at this point that he wasn't even mentioned in the analysis up until now. He'll likely finish top ten, but he's a solid tier below the half dozen guys before him who have far greater upside. If I had to predcit this team's fate, I would suggest a middle-of-the-pack finish. But, if Randle and Yeldon excite, all bets are off.

 

RicemanX:

 

1.04- RB Adrian Peterson, Min.

2.09- WR Jordy Nelson, GB

3.04- WR T.Y. Hilton, Ind.

4.09- RB Latavius Murray, Oak.

5.04- WR Julian Edelman, NE

6.09- QB Tom Brady, NE

7.04- WR Kevin White, Chi.

8.09- RB Ryan Mathews, Phi.

9.04- RB Devonta Freeman, Atl.

10.09- TE Coby Fleener, Ind.

11.04- RB David Johnson, Ari.

12.09- TE Jace Amaro, NYJ

13.04- D/ST, Seattle Seahawks

14.09- QB Josh McCown, Cle.

15.04- WR Dwayne Bowe, Cle.

16.09- K Phil Dawson, SF

 

Analysis: And now we come to the team compiled by our defending league champion. And, while there were some "safe" picks contained within the selections, there were plenty of high-risk, high-reward picks, too. Nothing represents that moniker better than the pick of Adrian Peterson, who could return in 2015 with a vengeance or find himself out of synch after a year away from the sport. The theme continues with the selections of rookies Kevin White and David Johnson in addition to second year guys Devonta Freeman and Jace Amaro. And, while we're at it, let's throw Latavius Murray into that high risk/reward category as well. This is essentially what I call a "swing for the fences" team. Even the choice of Tom Brady represents risk as it could mean that Josh McCown is your only active rostered QB for the first month of the season. This isn't Riceman trying to defend his title in a safe, conservative, passive way. This is Rice trying to repeat as champion and knowing that the potential is also there for the whole thing to crash and burn. It's going to be a lot of fun tracking the status of this team.

 

Key to No-Hassle Success: The running backs on this team have a chance to be special Peterson could be the best player in fantasy football again. DeMarco Murray could get hurt allowing Ryan Mathews to be a top-ten/elite level back. Latavius Murray could expand upon all that potential that we saw glimpses of last year. Because Rice has picked low-risk/dependable WRs, he has allowed himself the opportunity to be truly great at another position. Running back is that position. His season hinges on what his collection of thoroughbreds can do. Brady will likely come back and be Brady. The tight ends will be up and down. But, again, the RBs could be something well beyond all of that. We shall see.

Favorite pick: When I see a WR get drafted, my first thought is always "And just who will be throwing them the ball?" Rice's first two WRs taken were Jordy Nelson and T.Y. Hilton. Who throws them the ball? Aaron Rodgers and Andrew Luck. Enough said.

Least Favorite pick: I really like this draft a lot, so any mention of a least favorite anything feels like nit-picking to me. I'm not bullish on either tight end, so I guess those picks didn't do as much for me.

 

Overall outlook: I said last year that I thought Rice had a great shot at winning our league and that belief was proven right over the course of the seventeen week season. Dare I say I see him contending big-time for the title again this season. Sure, I'll say it. This team is stable at every position that matters and again could put up absolutely huge points in a best ball format from the RB position. In a league where there are no bad teams as long as most of the roster stays healthy, this team really stands out to me. Definitely one of the favorites unless Peterson regresses significantly.

 

Vikings4Ever:

 

1.05- RB Eddie Lacy, GB

2.08- WR Calvin Johnson, Det.

3.05- RB Melvin Gordon, SD

4.08- WR Brandon Marshall, NYJ

5.05- TE Travis Kelce, KC

6.08- WR Jarvis Landry, Mia.

7.05- RB Tre' Mason, Stl.

8.08- QB Ryan Tannehill, Mia.

9.05- WR Nelson Agholor, Phi.

10.08- TE Jordan Cameron, Mia.

11.05- RB Chris Ivory, NYJ

12.08- QB Jay Cutler, Chi.

13.05- WR Terrance Williams, Dal.

14.08- RB Denard Robinson, Jax.

15.05- K Cody Parkey, Phi.

16.08- D/ST, Pittsburgh Steelers

 

Analysis: This draft was Exhibit H (approximately) of what V4E likes to do when the calendar hits June and we do this draft. He ignores the QB position for as long as he can and stockpiles his talent everywhere else. In this case, the picks were a mixture of proven stars (some on the edge of remaining in their primes) and younger players with upside. The WR duo of Calvin Johnson and Brandon Marshall represent the former while players like Melvin Gordon, Travis Kelce, Jarvis Landry, Tre' Mason, and Nelson Agholor represent a heaping dose of the latter. In the end, it's an intriguing mix that can be classfied as a bit risky, but with great potential. The second half of the draft was a little less exciting as it featured several players either on bad teams or coming off down seasons in 2014. Still, V4E doesn't draft with conventional wisdom seemingly at the forefront. He has strong opinions about individual players and has never been afraid to exercise those opinions to put together a team that can score big more weeks than not. This is a deep team, also, even if I wasn't thrilled with some of the picks down the stretch.

 

Key to No-Hassle Success: Despite all the risky/upside picks, there is a sense of stability with this team. I guess my concerns would be: Can the QB duo of Tannehill and Cutler stay within range of other duos whose scoring will likely exceed theirs? And, how will the two rookies (Gordon, Agholor) perform? If the answer to either question is positive, I think this team could really make some noise as Lacy and Johnson represent a proven, dynamic foundation to build upon from a scoring perspective. Gordon's potential is especially appealing given that teams can't stack the box against him with a veteran QB under center.

 

Favorite pick: I thought each of the first three picks stayed on the board too long, so I thought Vikes got each in an ideal spot. I would readily take his first three picks over mine in a heartbeat.

 

Least Favorite pick: I think the Rams are going to turn Todd Gurley loose once he proves that he is 100%, so I thought the Mason pick was a little unwise in terms of when it took place.

 

Overall outlook: I would place V4E's team in the upper half of the league to begin proceedings for sure. I really think that if the QB experiment works out, he'll have the talent to contend for a league title. That is particularly true if the QB that works out ends up being Tannehill since he's hitched Jarvis Landry and Jordan Cameron to that wagon as well. Tannehill taking the next step in his progression, thus, would be the best possible scenario for this team. I am also anxious to see what Brandon Marshall has left in the tank. A top-ten season from Marshall would almost insure a very high finish in the standings and that's certainly possible if he can develop a rapport with a QB, particularly when the Jets get into the red zone. There are no teams that I "dislike". But, there are teams that I "like". This is one of those teams.

 

Robb:

 

1.06- RB Le'Veon Bell, Pit.

2.07- WR Julio Jones, Atl.

3.06- RB Justin Forsett, Bal.

4.07- WR Keenan Allen, SD

5.06- QB Russell Wilson, Sea.

6.07- RB Tevin Coleman, Atl.

7.06- WR Michael Floyd, Ari.

8.07- QB Tony Romo, Dal.

9.06- WR Torrey Smith, SF

10.07- TE Zach Ertz, Phi.

11.06- WR Kenny Stills, Mia.

12.07- RB Darren Sproles, Phi.

13.06- D/ST, Buffalo Bills

14.07- RB Alfred Blue, Hou.

15.06- K Justin Tucker, Bal.

16.07- TE Larry Donnell, NYG

 

Analysis: There's a lot to like about this team and also a lot to be at least moderately concerned about from my perspective. First, the good. When Le'Veon Bell returns from his suspension, he is the odds-on favorite to lead all RBs in points from that point forward. Mix in two strong, proven QBs and an ideal set of receivers from a #1, 2, and 3 standpoint and you've got the horses to get far. But, what if Tevin Coleman doesn't get much playing time early? What if Torrey Smith and Kenny Stills struggle intially to adjust to their new roles in new environments? The first month of the season, thus, is critical for this team as they must stay within shouting distance of the leaders in order to contend. Once Bell is back, I do expect this team to be really good as I see a lot of players in the prime of their careers who seem to fit together well in a best ball format such as ours. I thought the risk of taking Bell, ultimately, was worth the possible reward, but I do foresee this team falling behind early on and having to play catch up.

 

Keys to No-Hassle Success: Like I said above, it's all about "weathering" the early storm. This team should get better and better as the season goes on and guys get comfortable in terms of matching talent with situation. I think Justin Forsett could also play a large role in the overall success of the team as he's being drafted here as if he is going to nearly duplicate what took place last season. If he does, it will be somewhat remarkable given his lack of pedigree prior to last year...if he doesn't (more likely from my perspective), it will force the others RBs to step up. Given that the remaining guys are composed of a rookie and a couple of guys whose touches are rare, that could pose a problem longer term.

 

Favorite pick: This was a clinic in how to get WRs at great value prices. There's no way Julio Jones should have taken so long to be picked. Ditto for Keenan Allen. And, I am looking for a big bounce-back from Michael Floyd in 2015. Loved that trio and the value that each represented.

 

Least Favorite pick: As much as I liked the WR picks, I thought the RB picks were pretty questionable. Forsett went about where he should have, even though I'm skeptical about him, but Tevin Coleman in the sixth? That's pretty darn early.

 

Overall outlook: If I sound critical of this team, I don't mean to because I really like how they project over the course of a season, particualry from about Week Five on. There is stability at every position with Bell in the fold and I think Robb's bunch will benefit from getting three wide receivers in the scoring column every week with what he has assembled at that position. By season's end, it would not at all surprise me to see this team contending for a No-Hassle championship, although I wouldn't initially put them in my top three or so. So, as "middle of the pack" teams go, this team is probably at the front of that line for me.

 

White Wonder:

 

1.07- RB LeSean McCoy, Buf.

2.06- WR Odell Beckham, Jr., NYG

3.07- TE Jimmy Graham, Sea.

4.06- RB Lamar Miller, Mia.

5.07- RB LeGarrette Blount, NE

6.06- WR Roddy White, Atl.

7.07- WR Jeremy Maclin, KC

8.06- QB Eli Manning, NYG

9.07- WR Charles Johnson, Min.

10.06- TE Josh Hill, NO

11.07- QB Colin Kaepernick, SF

12.06- RB Fred Jackson, Buf.

13.07- RB Cameron Artis-Payne, Car.

14.06- WR Kenny Britt, Stl.

15.07- K Steven Hauschka, Sea.

16.06- D/ST, Kansas City Chiefs

 

Analysis: This could be an interesting team when all is said and done, but there is some uncertainty initially about some of the key players. For example, Jimmy Graham, LeSean McCoy, and Jeremy Maclin are all in new situations this season and their roles in new offensive schemes are yet to be determined. McCoy is probably the safest bet of the three to receive heavy usage and was certainly a sensible foundation pick no matter what perspective you take to examine this team. And, on weeks that Eli Manning and Odell Beckham, Jr. make noise together, White Wonder's team will score big. I thought the first three picks for WW were very solid, but I didn't like the next four picks nearly as much. It's hard to say if Miami and New England will stick with Miller and Blount for the duration of the season and Roddy White's health and status on his team continue to be in decline. Still, the coupling of the erratic Kaepernick with Eli Manning makes sense in the No-Hassle format as it gives the team some upside to go with what will likely be more consistent, predictable production from guys like Josh Hill and Charles Johnson. This team is anchored by three star players. Never underestimate the power of that.

 

Keys to No-Hassle Success: Hate to fall right into White's predictive web, but Jimmy Graham is probably the key to success. I think the production of most of the rostered players is fairly predictable. In the end, McCoy will probably get his and Maclin will achieve less than he did in Philadelphia given who his QB now is. But, Graham's overall impact on the Seattle offense is truly an unknown. If Graham can rival Gronkowski as the league's top producing tight end, it would go a long way towards making this team a serious threat. But, if Graham is somewhere between the fourth and tenth most productive tight end, then White has picked him way too soon.

 

Favorite pick: Absolute no-brainer. Odell Beckham, Jr. has no business lasting that long in a draft. The guys picking towards the middle of this draft came out with great RB-WR combos prior to the quality really diminishing late in the second round.

 

Least Favorite pick: It's a toss-up between LeGarrette Blount and Roddy White. I thought both went about a round too early.

 

Overall outlook: I like this team for the most part. Sure, I'm not crazy about some of the supporting cast, but the foundation is a good one and in the end, I do think Graham produces like an elite tight end is supposed to. I also really do like the fact that White coupled Beckham with Manning. That is a strategy I have seen work time and time again in this league over the years. It will drive the team's scoring up on a number of weeks and while it may not create the most consistent scoring base in the league, it may be one of the more dynamic. This team may finish towards the middle of the standings, but I would bet they lead the league in weekly scoring 2-3 times over the course of the year. Title contender? Maybe.

 

ICEMAN:

 

1.08- RB Matt Forte, Chi.

2.05- QB Aaron Rodgers, GB

3.08- WR Jordan Matthews, Phi.

4.05- RB Frank Gore, Ind.

5.08- TE Greg Olsen, Car.

6.05- WR Martavis Bryant, Pit.

7.08- WR Marques Colston, NO

8.05- RB Doug Martin, TB

9.08- RB Terrance West, Cle.

10.05- WR Breshad Perriman, Bal.

11.08- TE Vernon Davis, SF

12.05- WR Rueben Randle, NYG

13.08- K Stephen Gostkowski, NE

14.05- D/ST, St. Louis Rams

15.08- QB Robert Griffin III, Was.

16.05- RB Jonas Gray, NE

 

Analysis: ICE's track record in this league is one of consistent success. That being said, this isn't one of the teams I would trade mine for. Can't fault the Aaron Rodgers pick at all and it came at a great time, but picking a QB early forces a lot of prudent picks afterwards and I thought ICE reached for a lot of his choices too soon. What that ended up leaving him with is a collection of WRs that is probably the league's weakest unless Jordan Matthews and Martavis Bryant take major steps forward this season and/or Breshad Perriman ends up contributing big right off the bat. The running game is anchored by veterans Forte and Gore, but beyond that are major question marks as the three other RBs on the roster aren't guaranteed many touches at all come September. So, what this team ultimately looks a lot like is JScott's team. A superstar QB and a questionable supporting cast as a result of taking that superstar early. The receiving corps and the depth of this team just scare me. Still, having Rodgers is a luxury few can claim. Only Luck is in his same tier.

 

Keys to No-Hassle Success: A lot of things have to go right in order for this team to contend, but I would probably start with the three young WRs needing to produce and then continue by mentioning Frank Gore. Gore is not immortal and at some point, his decline will likely be sharp. In order for ICE to overcome his WR deficiency with a strong running game, Gore's decline simply cannot happen this season. If Gore is not a top-15 RB, ICE would then need Terrance West to emerge or Doug Martin to re-invent himself. Both of those scenarios seem unlikely. So, in summary, it's about Gore and 2 of the 3 young WRs meeting the expectations that ICE has clearly established for them.

 

Favorite pick: Greg Olsen was a good pick late in the fifth and gives this team an edge on most others from that position. I also thought the Perriman pick was well worth the risk given his overall potential.

 

Least Favorite pick: Certainly there were several that I wouldn't have made, but I think Colston and Vernon Davis were drafted as if they are the same players now that they were two years ago. They're not.

 

Overall outlook: If you're going to try to produce a meaningful analysis that doesn't just praise every team equally, you've got to have a team or two that you feel is an underdog coming into the season. Enter ICEMAN. As I stated before, though, ICE has found his way to or near the top of the No-Hassle standings so many times that I've lost count. So, is it possible that his master plan, despite being difficult to decipher for us mere mortals, will once again produce success? Sure it is. But, the team will have to exceed MY expectations rather significantly to reach that point. I think the lack of prowess at WR is really going to hurt this team, but Frank Gore turning into what Corey Dillon did late in his career in New England could change all of that. Rodgers will insure that this team has its good weeks, but will he get enough help? That's the question.

 

Dan:

 

1.09- TE Rob Gronkowski, NE

2.04- RB Arian Foster, Hou.

3.09- WR Emmanuel Sanders, Den.

4.04- WR Sammy Watkins, Buf.

5.09- QB Ben Roethlisberger, Pit.

6.04- RB C.J. Spiller, NO

7.09- WR Steve Smith, Bal.

8.04- RB Darren McFadden, Dal.

9.09- WR Pierre Garcon, Was.

10.04- RB Duke Johnson, Cle.

11.09- WR Cody Lattimer, Den.

12.04- TE Austin Seferian-Jenkins, TB

13.09- WR Michael Crabtree, Oak.

14.04- D/ST, New York Jets

15.09- K Blair Walsh, Min.

16.04- QB Jameis Winston, TB

 

Analysis: Wanna keep a draft really interesting? Try grabbing a TE and QB in two of the first five rounds and see what the rest of your team looks like. That's what Dan did here and the result was fascinating. On one hand, Dan doesn't have much reliability at RB behind Arian Foster with his remaining three running backs all playing for new teams this season. On the other hand, he's got a tight end that is in a tier all his own and a QB that was huge in the No-Hassle format last year thanks to his propensity for having games with huge amounts of statistical output. Wide receiver is a question mark for this team as well, but if you're only going to pick a third and fourth rounder in the first six rounds, the wise thing to do is end up with six on the team overall. That's exactly what Dan did. So, WR is a position of depth...tight end is a position of extreme strength...and QB is in good hands with a starter that never misses time due to injury. Sounds like a formula for success to me unless you consider what's there/not there at running back. Dan could be sweating that one out all season as netting six WRs left him with only four running backs. Quite the risk.

 

Keys to No-Hassle Success: The health of the running backs. Do I even need to remind anyone how fraglie the trio of Arian Foster, Darren McFadden, and C.J. Spiller could potentially be? I could easily see all three backs missing time this season and/or missing time all together. That would spell disaster for any team no matter who your tight end happens to be. On the flip side, relatively good health for all three running backs might allow this team to really take flight. Once Brady returns from his suspension, Gronkowski will most likely go on a huge tear and with all three primary backs healthy, that could mean some big, big scoring weeks. So, the answer here is quite simple: The RBs on this team MUST avoid injury.

 

Favorite pick: Gronk. I know it defied conventional wisdom to grab a TE this early in a non-PPR league, but this guy is a game-changer. If he plays 14-16 games this season, no one else will touch his production. Well worth a first round pick from my vantage point.

 

Least Favorite pick: Probably Garcon. I think he was overvalued as a ninth rounder. Overall, though, I didn't really have a problem with any of the other picks sans maybe McFadden due to his chronic health status.

 

Overall outlook: I hate to beat a dead horse, but health really is the key to this team. Healthy and utilzed properly, this team could really make some noise in this league. They could even win the whole thing. But, the lack of depth at RB and the history of the RBs who do make up the roster makes me extremely nervous. As the guy who tracks the scoring in this league, I know what happens when multiple running backs go down on teams that only have four to begin with. It's game over. As I said in the beginning, you draft a TE and QB both fairly early...and you get a roster that looks like this.

 

Shovelheadt:

 

1.10- WR Antonio Brown, Pit.

2.03- RB Jeremy Hill, Cin.

3.10- RB Alfred Morris, Was.

4.03- WR Andre Johnson, Ind.

5.10- WR Golden Tate, Det.

6.03- QB Matt Ryan, Atl.

7.10- RB Bishop Sankey, Ten.

8.03- QB Matthew Stafford, Det.

9.10- RB David Cobb, Ten.

10.03- WR Marvin Jones, Cin.

11.10- TE Maxx Williams, Bal.

12.03- TE Jared Cook, Stl.

13.10- D/ST, Cincinnati Bengals

14.03- RB Roy Helu, Jr., Oak.

15.10- WR Percy Harvin, Buf.

16.03- K Mike Nugent, Cin.

 

Analysis: With the exception of having the four customary Bengals on his team, I think this was a really, really good effort from what is typically a difficult drafting position. What I like most about this team is how balanced it is. Shovel didn't load up on any one position to make it great, but did put together seemigly equal talent at each of the main three positions that matter most in fantasy football. Starting at QB, he acquired a near perfect duo from a best-ball perspective in the form of Ryan and Stafford. Then, he paired together a couple of guys at RB whose value was underrated in this draft since the league is non-PPR. Finally, on top of having the most coveted WR in the draft, he created depth by grabbing a couple of WRs in good offensive schemes to back him up. Since this draft doesn't allow for anyone to not have a weakness, though, that needs to also be mentioned. Tight end is not a position of strength by any means. But, if you're going to come out of the June Mock with a weakness (everybody does and will), tight end is probably the place to go with that. Again, balanced rosters have always looked good to me. That's what we've got here first and foremost.

 

Keys to No-Hassle Success: Wow, this team looks stable to me. I see a bunch of players whose chances of repeating what they did in 2015 or even bettering it in some cases look quite favorable. I guess one key would be Matthew Stafford enjoying a bit of a bounce-back season as that would also enhance the value of Golden Tate. Another key would be getting something out of the tight end position. This team could be top-five with almost zero production there, but if they covet a championship, they probably need a little more than that. Finally, Tennessee needs to run the ball better. Coupling the Sankey pick with Cobb was a wise move, but only if the Titans can figure out a way to become viable running the football.

 

Favorite pick: The Ryan and Stafford picks. It's the exact same combo of QBs that I had last year and even with Stafford failing to meet expectations somewhat, I never regretted the pairing. Solid choices there.

 

Least Favorite pick: I thought Shovel waited too long to address the TE position, so although I didn't mind his picks there per se, I thought he should have waited another round on Cobb and Marvin Jones and taken a better tight end in the ninth round.

 

Overall outlook: This was the tale of two drafts for me. I loved this draft after eight rounds. I didn't care as much for what happened after that, but the much, much more important half of the draft I thought Shovel nailed. This team may not lead the league in points scored for even one week this season. They simply aren't explosive enough for that distinction. But, what they will do is score very consistently from week to week and in the end, slow and steady can indeed win the race. I don't see much scoring volatility here which suggests middle of the pack is the worst Shovel could do (barring a rash of injuries) and top-three is the ceiling. Again, I think this team has the look and feel of a stable contender.

 

Ray Lewis' Limo Driver:

 

1.11- WR Dez Bryant, Dal.

2.02- WR Demaryius Thomas, Den.

3.11- RB Mark Ingram, NO

4.02- RB Todd Gurley, Stl.

5.11- QB Drew Brees, NO

6.02- RB Rashad Jennings, NYG

7.11- WR Victor Cruz, NYG

8.02- TE Owen Daniels, Den.

9.11- WR Larry Fitzgerald, Ari.

10.02- RB Jay Ajayi, Mia.

11.11- RB Reggie Bush, SF

12.02- WR DeVante Parker, Mia.

13.11- QB Andy Dalton, Cin.

14.02- TE Eric Ebron, Det.

15.11- D/ST, Houston Texans

16.02- K Shaun Suisham, Pit.

 

Analysis: Picking two wide receivers to begin a draft used to be the edgy, way-out-there thing to do. Now, it's much more commonplace and can actually win you a title if the two you pick end up being what you're expecting them to be. Enter Ray's 2015 drafting strategy. It's hard to argue with what Thomas and Bryant have done in recent years to make themselves the true elite at their position. Ray is banking on more of the same from them and has chosen to surround them with a blend of saavy veterans and rookies alike, including two of the latter at the RB position. If one of those two (Todd Gurley most likely) bursts onto the scene this year as a top-ten fantasy talent, it could make this team scary good. I'm not buying the fact that Drew Brees is no longer fantasy relevant, so if you team him with a talented, stable running game and the best WR combo in the No-Hassle league, you might just have fantasy gold on your hands. It just depends. Something both Dan and Ray will be interested in is the usage of Mark Ingram vs. C.J. Spiller. In a league so fiercely contested, the difference between those two teams could be as simple as ball distribution with respect to that pairing. Whatever the case, the upside here is pretty remarkable.

 

Keys to No-Hassle Success: The Ingram vs. Spiller dynamic was mentioned above, but it's really about Todd Gurley here. Ray has based his entire team on the idea that Gurley is going to be a factor at some point before the mid-point of the season. If he is, everything else seems to be in place for a run at another No-Hassle championship. If Gurley busts, however, and/or cannot regain his health, the running game could sputter. There are also question marks, depth-wise, behind Thomas and Bryant at WR. This team's potential is great, but the WRs must stay healthy and Gurley needs to contribute in meaningful ways.

 

Favorite pick: Yeah, I know it's not 2012, but getting Drew Brees at 5.11 is still some kind of steal. Getting Fitzgerald four rounds later wasn't too shabby, either.

 

Least Favorite Pick: I liked all of Ray's picks in this draft sans one. I thought Victor Cruz got picked way too early given all the uncertainty about him this season. I think there were far better WRs available to him at that time in the draft.

 

Overall outlook: It seems I always like Ray's teams coming out of this draft. He likes to assemble teams with upside that have an intimidating look to them in terms of the talent and potential of the group as a whole. This team is going to really get crazy good fast if the running game turns out o.k. Brees, Bryant, and Thomas make that a near certainty. If Ingram, Gurley, and Rashad Jennings can somehow outscore just half of the other teams in this league at that position, this is a bona fide title contender. Maybe even a favorite. I think the future looks pretty bright with the only concern having been thus noted.

 

Remote Controller:

 

1.12- RB C.J. Anderson, Den.

2.01- RB DeMarco Murray, Phi.

3.12- WR Kelvin Benjamin, Car.

4.01- WR Brandin Cooks, NO

5.12- WR Amari Cooper, Oak.

6.01- QB Cam Newton, Car.

7.12- RB Charles Sims, TB

8.01- WR Anquan Boldin, SF

9.12- TE Jason Witten, Dal.

10.01- TE Delanie Walker, Ten.

11.12- WR Davante Adams, GB

12.01- RB Montee Ball, Den.

13.12- RB Javorius Allen, Bal.

14.01- QB Derek Carr, Oak.

15.12- K Dan Bailey, Dal.

16.01- D/ST, Green Bay Packers

 

Analysis: Although Remote doesn't follow the same formula each and every year, this team does look similar to teams past in some ways and different in others. The similar part comes in the form of taking two workhorse running backs to begin the draft. If Remote could guarantee that Murray and Anderson would put up the same numbers as last season, we would probably go ahead and engrave his name on the trophy, figuratively speaking. Neither is assured of that, but both should get plenty of red zone opportunities, making their selections sensible as a foundation for this team. The different part has to do with the relaive youth of all WRs not named Anquan Boldin. Remote is clearly banking that the two years' NFL experience amongst his top three wideouts COMBINED is not a problem, but instead an asset. Gone are the days, apparently, when Remote's team was fairly conservative and close to the vest, top to bottom. QB and TE appear to be in good hands, so it really does come down to a bunch of high upside, moderate risk guys at that one position...

 

Keys to No-Hassle Success: Murray and Anderson may not match what they did last year, but they're not going to crash and burn, either. And even if they did, Remote wisely drafted Montee Ball late as insurance for C.J. Anderson. So, the "keys" to this team, if you will, have been handed off to a trio to ultra-talented, but still pretty green receivers. Make no mistake: This team will absolutely rise and/or fall based upon Benjamin, Cooks, and Cooper. Benjamin and Cooper are espeically important also due to the fact that their QBs (Newton and Carr) are also on this team. If both end up being highly successful, they will take those QBs along for the ride making this a really, really good team. Something else to watch: Will Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb stay healthy? If they don't, Remote may end up with the steal of the draft in Davante Adams.

 

Favorite pick: Put me in the camp of people that think DeMarco Murray is actually being undervalued this season. I think his workload from last season is being over-emphasized. I think he's first-round good. Also loved the Adams pick.

 

Least Favorite pick: I haven't seen any indication as of yet that Charles Sims can be an impact player at the pro level. I hope for Remote's sake that I'm wrong, but that might turn out to be a wasted selection.

 

Overall outlook: Impossible to say what the overall outlook of this team is. There are too many variables. What I do know is that there is a ton of upside and if nothing else, I would be excited to track a team like this if it were mine. Maybe picking last in the odd rounds made Remote come out of his comfort zone a bit- only he could tell you that. What I like is that he didn't settle for what was "safe" once those first two picks were made. Sure, he took Boldin and Witten in the middle of his draft, but beyond that, this was a bit of a swing for the fences draft much like what Riceman did. I see those two teams as pretty equal starting out and that's a compliment to Remote to be sure given what I said about Rice.

[Fumbleweed 421]

Halfway finished. Hope to do a couple more teams tonight and then finish the analysis by noon tomorrow. Thanks for being patient.

[Vikings4ever 496]

As always, thanks for doing this Fumble.

 

Mason, I'm fine with the pick. If Gurley's healthy, yeah, the Rams will rely heavily on him. That's a big IF though.

 

My least favorite pick, I've said before, was Marshall. I needed a WR, and the talent evaporated in front of me. He's probably a better pick for a PPR league, but hopefully he gets enough TDs to make this pick worthwhile.

 

If I had it to do again, I'd go with Benjamin in the third, and Lat Murray in the fourth.

[Fumbleweed 421]

As always, thanks for doing this Fumble.

 

Mason, I'm fine with the pick. If Gurley's healthy, yeah, the Rams will rely heavily on him. That's a big IF though.

 

My least favorite pick, I've said before, was Marshall. I needed a WR, and the talent evaporated in front of me. He's probably a better pick for a PPR league, but hopefully he gets enough TDs to make this pick worthwhile.

 

If I had it to do again, I'd go with Benjamin in the third, and Lat Murray in the fourth.

 

You seem to feel about Marshall the way I do about DeSean Jackson. Both of us knew we had to pick WRs at that point, but neither of us were very excited about the value that was present.

[WhiteWonder 2,170]

Thanks for the analysis fumble. Since I always feel he need to defend myself, I think if maclin was still in Philly he would have gone a lot sooner. I think he fell right in line as a number 3 playing for a familiar coach.

 

Same with roddy. I think his value was pretty good. I agree he's getting older and more injury prone but I still see him as the number 2 in a good passing offense capable of 8-10 scores depending on games played. For example i think he will oit produce Marshall thisbyear... I think he had 7 scores last year with 2 games missed? A solid number 2 I think considering the early TE pick and using 3 top 5 picks to solidify the RB spot.

 

I agree with the trepidation on miller and blount but I think the upside, especially with blount is huge

[Fumbleweed 421]

Analysis is done. Hope it was enjoyable to read if nothing else.

[remote controller 133]

My biggest regret was not grabbing Matthews in round seven to secure Murray. The Sims pick baffles me. I wanted Matthews and hoped to get him on the next corner. I expect a lot out of the Raiders offensively this season. They are building a team that scores, and playing SDC,Denver, and even KC, to some extent, they'll need to. Love the potential of Carr and Cooper (and Latavius). Benjamin was gifted and allowed me to speculate on Cooks. Boldin is still a beast when needed, and Witten's yds. per catch and completion % with Romo are both still equal to or above career averages. Devante was as good of a #5 wideout as I could have ever hoped for) Murray caused the -200 yards last year. Witten will be a top 4 TE again this year as the Cowboys try to win NOW. I feel the key to my team is Cam. If he steps up I will be consistent weekly. CJ and Murray will get theirs and I do feel CJ will win many a Fantasy Championships for his owners. (but grab Ball)

 

I really liked the 12 spot this season and recommend you all try a mock from this spot.

[remote controller 133]

Thanks, as always Fumble. Please find out from Mike about the June PPR mock????

[RicemanX 20]

Thanks for the analysis Fumble. Very entertaining to read.

I really like my starting lineup. The backups are very questionable.

 

* I have doubts that any of the RBs after AD and Murray will be able to produce winning numbers.

* With that said, I have very high hopes for AD and Murray.

* I strongly believe that I drafted the best WR core, from 1-5.

* I had no idea what I was doing with TEs, glad fumble saw that as well.

* I drafted McCown in the 14th and Bowe in the 15th purely based on Cleveland's first 4 games of the season (when Brady is supposed to be suspended). They will be playing 4 of the 7 worst Defensive teams (in 2014) in those 4 weeks. Believe it or not, I fully expect McCown to produce top 10 QB numbers in those 4 weeks. After that, I fully expect him to regress to the middle/bottom of the pack.

[robb 71]

Thanks much Fumble for you insight and analysis!

 

My thoughts on your thoughts are:

RBs Le'Veon Bell, Pit. and Justin Forsett, Bal. must carry this team. I thought about drafting D. Williams to have as Bell's replacement for the first 3 games, but in the end, decided I didn't want only a 3-game player and would chance that Coleman or Sproles picks up the slack!

 

My WRs of Jones, Allen, Floyd, Smith and Stills are a fine starting 5 and should be their teams #1 or #2 WR all year. My strength, as you so indicated.

 

My QBs are very strong, especially in the best ball format, Wilson..... I am not real enthused about but he could have some monster weeks as will Romo.

 

Defense & Kickers don't matter and I never put much emphasis on TEs, but I do think Entz could be a top 5 TE.

 

The first month of the season, thus, is critical for this team as they must stay within shouting distance of the leaders in order to contend. I agree with this and drafted accordingly when I decided to take Bell #6, but who else would I have taken at that position, maybe Gronk.

 

Favorite pick: This was a clinic in how to get WRs at great value prices. There's no way Julio Jones should have taken so long to be picked. Ditto for Keenan Allen. And, I am looking for a big bounce-back from Michael Floyd in 2015. Loved that trio and the value that each represented. Agreed, I thought about Megatron in the 2nd but think Jones/Ryan will be better.

 

Least Favorite pick: Mine was Wilson, QB in the 5th. Maybe okay value, but I didn't think any WR/RB was worth it and I anticipated a QB run from here.

 

Overall outlook: Initially, I was not excited about this team but have warmed up to it. I really think "middle of the pack" for me would be about right. I did like the #6 pick position, would have preferred the 5th selection better tho. I went into the draft concerned that the 4th round was lacking talent and value early on, but I was wrong....... it was more like the 5th round. Lastly, rounds 5-8 are what makes a Championship team, IMO.

 

THANKS to everyone for your insight and valuable feedback. I value your comments and opinions and appreciate being asked every year to participate!

[RLLD 3,455]

Fumbles June Mock analysis is the highlight of the NFL off season for me

[WhiteWonder 2,170]

I'm halfway done with my analysis no one cares about

[RicemanX 20]

I'm halfway done with my analysis no one cares about

I care. And I appreciate the work.

[Vikings4ever 496]

I care. And I appreciate the work.

[Fumbleweed 421]

I'm halfway done with my analysis no one cares about

 

 

I'm halfway done with my analysis no one cares about

 

Dude. Of course we care. Looking forward to it.

[robb 71]

 

 

 

Dude. Of course we care. Looking forward to it.

 

 

WW: I would like to read another assessment of our epic work from you and was looking forward to it!

[The Football Guru 210]

I'm halfway done with my analysis no one cares about

I cared about it until I read it...now I don't care

[WhiteWonder 2,170]

I cared about it until I read it...now I don't care

 

heh sorry. i'll probably be completely wrong but like fumble said... can't give accurate analysis if I just praise everyones team. Going to be a few I don't like.

[The Football Guru 210]

 

heh sorry. i'll probably be completely wrong but like fumble said... can't give accurate analysis if I just praise everyones team. Going to be a few I don't like.

I know you know I'm kidding, but I'll say it just to make sure. I'm not even close to having my draft board set up yet. You and Fumble make solid points and I can understand why you would question some of the picks. In retrospect, I probably should have drafted V-Jax (who I like as a darn good WR3 this year) or Abdullah in the sixth and D-Mac or V-Jax in the seventh, but I really didn't see Gates lasting as long as he did. With that said (and I mentioned this in the commentary thread if I'm not mistaken), the combination of Bennett-Gates outscored Gronk in a BB format last year. If Kevin White doesn't hit the ground running - a distinct possibility - another 70-catch season (or more) could be in the works since the Bears' defense is probably going to struggle again. Then again, the FF savior that John Brown will become is certain to put me on top

 

All kidding aside, I appreciate when someone has the willingness to put some original thoughts together - it is a rarity in today's world.

[Dan 59]

Well done, Fumble. Thanks again for the write-up and the effort.