Johnny Manziel

[sirensong 111]

 

... The truth is, HEIGHT does matter.

 

This analysis proves it.

 

http://www.coldhardfootballfacts.com/content/tall-task-does-height-matter-for-nfl-quarterbacks/22067/

 

 

debatable. the danger in any quantitative analysis is equating correlation with causation. very often, your independent variable is not directly relevant to the dependent variable. for example, those same correlations would probably hold up if the analyst was looking at shoe size. if that were the case, then a simplistic analysis would conclude that larger feet cause better QB performance. obviously, this finding would be...problematic.

 

the common perception is that tall QBs see and throw over the heads and hands of the linemen. but in actuality, this is rarely the case--they are almost always using lanes between linemen. if that's true, then a 6' QB is in the same boat as a 6'4" QB.

 

the analyst over at the cowboys official website is particularly interested in the height correlations for QBs, DEs, and OTs. in each case, he finds that height is not the best correlation. instead, height is a proxy for more important covariates. for QBs, he finds that hand size is more important than height for passing performance. larger hands give a better grip and more control over the ball. while brees is only 6', he has monster mitts.

 

i don't have his Dbase, but if anyone can dig up combine numbers, you could do a simple pearson's r test in the statistics package of your choice. if you don't have something like SPSS, i'm pretty sure that you can do simple correlations in excel. and if you do have a decent package, then you can run a multiple regression using data like completion rate, fumbles, and other ball-control variables.

 

if i weren't so caught up in school, i'd be interested in doing a regression-based factor analysis on this topic. i think a guy could make a name for himself in the analytics world if he did some good work with that, so you guys feel free to jump on it.

 

so how does manziel's hand size stack up?

[jgcrawfish 232]

My perspective may be different, I've seen the kid play since he was a high schooler. In person he's just remarkable to watch. He played my old high school team and broke the state record for pass attempts and single handedly defeated a team that was probably superior to his. He wasn't even really being recruited until after that game, when A&M coaches stayed after the game and walked onto the field to openly court him. Every time I've doubted Johnny Football, he does something to surprise me. If you watch him play he's just half a step ahead of everybody, not physically, but mentally. Unlike RGIII, he really doesn't take that many big hits because he has this knack for worming out of the hard contact just before it happens. He's not big, not fast, doesn't have a cannon arm and is a bit of a knucklehead off the field, but whatever "it" is, he has it. He's the closest thing to Joe Montana as a college QB I've ever seen.

[Skinny_Bastard 154]

 

 

debatable. the danger in any quantitative analysis is equating correlation with causation. very often, your independent variable is not directly relevant to the dependent variable. for example, those same correlations would probably hold up if the analyst was looking at shoe size. if that were the case, then a simplistic analysis would conclude that larger feet cause better QB performance. obviously, this finding would be...problematic.

 

the common perception is that tall QBs see and throw over the heads and hands of the linemen. but in actuality, this is rarely the case--they are almost always using lanes between linemen. if that's true, then a 6' QB is in the same boat as a 6'4" QB.

 

the analyst over at the cowboys official website is particularly interested in the height correlations for QBs, DEs, and OTs. in each case, he finds that height is not the best correlation. instead, height is a proxy for more important covariates. for QBs, he finds that hand size is more important than height for passing performance. larger hands give a better grip and more control over the ball. while brees is only 6', he has monster mitts.

 

i don't have his Dbase, but if anyone can dig up combine numbers, you could do a simple pearson's r test in the statistics package of your choice. if you don't have something like SPSS, i'm pretty sure that you can do simple correlations in excel. and if you do have a decent package, then you can run a multiple regression using data like completion rate, fumbles, and other ball-control variables.

 

if i weren't so caught up in school, i'd be interested in doing a regression-based factor analysis on this topic. i think a guy could make a name for himself in the analytics world if he did some good work with that, so you guys feel free to jump on it.

 

so how does manziel's hand size stack up?

 

Read that article. QB that stands at 6'5" has the highest completion % in the history of the game. That's truth.

[Skinny_Bastard 154]

My perspective may be different, I've seen the kid play since he was a high schooler. In person he's just remarkable to watch. He played my old high school team and broke the state record for pass attempts and single handedly defeated a team that was probably superior to his. He wasn't even really being recruited until after that game, when A&M coaches stayed after the game and walked onto the field to openly court him. Every time I've doubted Johnny Football, he does something to surprise me. If you watch him play he's just half a step ahead of everybody, not physically, but mentally. Unlike RGIII, he really doesn't take that many big hits because he has this knack for worming out of the hard contact just before it happens. He's not big, not fast, doesn't have a cannon arm and is a bit of a knucklehead off the field, but whatever "it" is, he has it. He's the closest thing to Joe Montana as a college QB I've ever seen.

 

Joe Montana?

Wow, that's high praise.

 

Here's a thought. A small white boy with a weak arm running around as a QB somehow doesn't translate into success. Of douse this is all my stereotype.

[Reality 2,710]

 

Joe Montana?

Wow, that's high praise.

 

Here's a thought. A small white boy with a weak arm running around as a QB somehow doesn't translate into success. Of douse this is all my stereotype.

At 205 the dude is thick and in great shape. Also, saying he has a weak arm just isn't reality.

[Skinny_Bastard 154]

At 205 the dude is thick and in great shape. Also, saying he has a weak arm just isn't reality.

 

Have you seen him throw the deep pass?

He heaves it with everything..

[Skinny_Bastard 154]

I like Mel Kipers take on this..

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wkFWgvTAW2E

 

 

Interesting video.

[Reality 2,710]

With that said, i can name 3 different players i would take before Manziel:

 

Bridgewater, Bortles and AJ McCarron.

 

But that's just me.

 

I'm not sure Johnny Football should be a top 5 pick but, Bortles should be at best a 3rd round pick and McCarron will be a career backup if he plays his cards right.

[R8RMick 242]

I like Mel Kipers take on this..

 

 

 

 

Interesting video.

Who the hell is Mel Kiper lol...? Best line ever and BTW have seen Kiper totally whiff on many QB'S over the years. Having said such he looks like a rocket scientist next to Skip Bayless. On the hand thing, heard Dan Fouts self admit his small hands cost him during the 1981 Ice Bowl at Cincinnati. But otherwise Air Coryell had a decent career eh?

[jgcrawfish 232]

 

Joe Montana?

Wow, that's high praise.

 

Here's a thought. A small white boy with a weak arm running around as a QB somehow doesn't translate into success. Of douse this is all my stereotype.

 

Not saying he's bound to be the next Montana, just saying that what I see of him in college reminds of the things I saw out of Montana in the pros. The "it" factor reminds me I guess.

[TheUsualSuspect 207]

For starters, he's a major jerkoff..

How so? Because he is a stud QB in college that likes to party? He's a kid. He missed one meaningless half of football, it's over. He is over it, you should be too.

 

Any why the comparisons to short QBs? He is not as small as most people think... He 6'1 215 ... Size 15 shoes, with gigantic hands that hold beers, boobies, and NFL footballs. I got news for ya, Manziel > Bridgewater

 

Next season, he will be the most ATHLETIC quarterback in the league and obviously has a ton of god given talent. What he chooses to do with his talent is up to him. But the kid is a winner, and fun to watch and will make any bottom tier team in the league (ie. HOU, CLE, JAX, OAK, WAS) better. If A&M had any defense whatsoever, they would have been 11-2... Maybe better and beat Alabama. Again. Why all the negativity towards the kid? Oh I got it... He is everything most of us want to be- young, successful, with an amazing future ahead of him... But always, Haters gon hate.

 

P.S. Please, no one compare him to Tebow. It's like every white receiver in the slot being the "Wes Welker type" of receiver. Yes, we understand that fast white receivers and mobile white QBs are rare, but they are in fact not extinct and becoming more common these days...End rant now.

[sirensong 111]

 

Read that article. QB that stands at 6'5" has the highest completion % in the history of the game. That's truth.

 

 

i read the article. your assertion is probably true, but it may also be spurious correlation and not causative. statistical analysis is more than looking at simple numerical relationships. the US GDP correlates positively with the number of teams in the NFL, but the one is not caused by the other in any meaningful way.

 

your post is no different than saying "the QB with the biggest feet has the highest TD:INT ratio in football history." even if true, it is not necessarily helpful in evaluating future prospects. the only way to judge whether height itself is important or not is to use proper statistical methods and tests of inference.

 

many sports people talk about statistics, without having any idea of how actual statistical methods work. there's a big difference between football fandom and scientific research. the author ran down a lot of numbers, but the article is nowhere near rigorous enough to pass analytical muster.

[Skinny_Bastard 154]

 

your post is no different than saying "the QB with the biggest feet has the highest TD:INT ratio in football history." even if true, it is not necessarily helpful in evaluating future prospects. the only way to judge whether height itself is important or not is to use proper statistical methods and tests of inference.

 

 

The taller you are, the bigger the chance you have bigger feet.

Now you are getting a bit crazy.

 

Sometimes you folks dig a bit too deep and choose to see what you want. Discounting solid analysis is one thing but totally saying it's not necessarily helpful is pure BS. He broke down the numbers based on the average height of QB in the history of the NFL. The numbers back the performance of these individuals. How's that not helpful?

 

It's like saying a 7 feet tall individual have a higher chance of success in the NBA. The numbers show that an individual between 6'11" and 7'2" are more likelihood to dunk, block and rebound but yet you choice to discount it because it is not necessarily helpful in evaluating future prospects. Then what is?

History have shown that most Superbowl teams are won with a QB standing over 6'3". Why?

 

For many scouts, physical attributes based on position is one of the first thing they look at. Being able to see above the defensive linemen gives the passer a BIG advantage. Height is NOT something you can teach and improve on. It is one out of many things to look at and one less thing to worry about. There's a reason why more QB are successful above 6'3" tall in the history of this game and even more over the past 2 decades than a QB below 6'1". For every Brees and Wilson there are MORE flutie and Troy Smith. There's no perfect science in evaluating talent but you roll the dice based on the attributes that give you the highest possible chance of success.

[sirensong 111]

 

 

Now you are getting a bit crazy.

 

 

 

not in the least. measurables are important, but if you're not measuring the right things, you can wind up passing on brees or wilson in order to draft jamarcus russell. this thread is about manziel as a prospect. does his actual height make a difference (independent variable), or is it an associated covariate with hand size, arm length, or some other physical metric? and what is the strength of that association? your height theory would cause you to devalue brees/wilson, and would be unable to account for their passing acumen (dissociated from their 'football IQ').

 

the entire field of sports analytics pursues questions like these--how do you differentiate the signal from the noise? what measurables are actually important, as opposed to those that might intuitively seem helpful (but don't confer any tangible benefit)?

 

what tangible benefit does height--in itself--confer? and how do those stack up against potential liabilities of height (mobility, lower leg injury, etc.)?

 

and how do you know for sure?

 

these are questions for quantitative analysis, which requires far more effort and mathematics than simply glancing at a bivariate table. seriously--you can do this. grab the last few years of combine data in .xls form, and run some pivot tables on excel. use the simple correlation function, and run tests on height, hand size, and arm length against your preferred passing performance metric of choice.

 

if you want to get into more detail, download R, which is a free statistics package. dump all the combine info into one file, and run a multiple regression of all the size variables against passing performance. see what kinds of patterns emerge, and which independent variable (size) is the best predictor of the dependent variable (performance).

 

http://www.r-project.org/

 

statistical analysis is not rocket science, but you have to be precise and understand the difference between patterns and causes.

[Cold Ass Honky 3]

You mean guys with prototypical NFL QB size like ...

 

JaMarcus Russell

 

Ryan Leaf

 

Tim Couch

 

David Carr

 

Brady Quinn

 

Heath Shuler

 

Need I go on?

 

OK ... Rick Mirer, Joey Harrington, Dan McGwire, Todd Marinovich, Andre Ware, Akili Smith, Art Schlichter, David Klinger, etc., etc.

 

 

Johnny Football will make people forget the names of Russell Wilson, Drew Brees, Fran Tarkenton and Roger Staubach.

 

Any team that passes on him, from the first pick on down, will rue that day for the next 15 years (more than the Portland Trailblazers regret picking Sam Bowie instead of #23).

 

 

JFF is a once-in-a-generation player.

[Reality 2,710]

You mean guys with prototypical NFL QB size like ...

 

JaMarcus Russell

 

Ryan Leaf

 

Tim Couch

 

David Carr

 

Brady Quinn

 

Heath Shuler

 

Need I go on?

 

OK ... Rick Mirer, Joey Harrington, Dan McGwire, Todd Marinovich, Andre Ware, Akili Smith, Art Schlichter, David Klinger, etc., etc.

 

 

Johnny Football will make people forget the names of Russell Wilson, Drew Brees, Fran Tarkenton and Roger Staubach.

 

Any team that passes on him, from the first pick on down, will rue that day for the next 15 years (more than the Portland Trailblazers regret picking Sam Bowie instead of #23).

 

 

JFF is a once-in-a-generation player.

Valid point, scouts are notorious for missing basically as much as they hit.

[The Moz 69]

All I know is the Kid was the Most exciting college player to watch since Barry Sanders at OK ST.

 

I have a Feeling Houston wants to trade down a few picks and let people take Bridgewater and then get johnny Football.

 

I would take him #1 overall - for 2 reasons -- A. He would be a instant money maker with ticket sales and merchandise ESPECIALLY @ Houston ...... or Dallas. and #1 picks are pretty hit an miss anyway in terms of them being great. B. If he is really that good he could be that one in 10 years player at QB.

 

All I know he was the most fun to watch college QB I have ever seen......... YES better than Vick.

[donkeyjotes 54]

The queens will take him @ 1.8. Or trade up with Houston for c-pep 2.0.

[TimmySmith 2,782]

All I know is the Kid was the Most exciting college player to watch since Barry Sanders at OK ST.

 

All I know he was the most fun to watch college QB I have ever seen......... YES better than Vick.

I'll go Vince Young.

[Skinny_Bastard 154]

You mean guys with prototypical NFL QB size like ...

 

JaMarcus Russell

 

Ryan Leaf

 

Tim Couch

 

David Carr

 

Brady Quinn

 

Heath Shuler

 

Need I go on?

 

OK ... Rick Mirer, Joey Harrington, Dan McGwire, Todd Marinovich, Andre Ware, Akili Smith, Art Schlichter, David Klinger, etc., etc.

 

 

Johnny Football will make people forget the names of Russell Wilson, Drew Brees, Fran Tarkenton and Roger Staubach.

 

Any team that passes on him, from the first pick on down, will rue that day for the next 15 years (more than the Portland Trailblazers regret picking Sam Bowie instead of #23).

 

 

JFF is a once-in-a-generation player.

 

Yes, there's no perfect science, but a tall QB with a big arm have a greater chance of success than a 6 feet tall kid that scrambles with a weak arm. Go to Youtube and see manziel's highlights. It's all scramble and runs. Can you really tell me he can last 15 years in the NFL playing that style?

 

You want a franchise that's a QB away from the playoffs and use their first overall pick on a kid that never throws to his 2nd option, a weak arm in NFL standard and scrambles on first sign of trouble??? C'mon, seriously???

[jgcrawfish 232]

 

Yes, there's no perfect science, but a tall QB with a big arm have a greater chance of success than a 6 feet tall kid that scrambles with a weak arm. Go to Youtube and see manziel's highlights. It's all scramble and runs. Can you really tell me he can last 15 years in the NFL playing that style?

 

You want a franchise that's a QB away from the playoffs and use their first overall pick on a kid that never throws to his 2nd option, a weak arm in NFL standard and scrambles on first sign of trouble??? C'mon, seriously???

 

Yes, do that. And what you will see is a kid who scrambles his way out of hits, not into them. I've never been a fan of the Dallas Cowboys, although Emmitt Smith has more respect from me than lots of other players. You rarely ever saw Emmitt run away from a tackle, but he always moved away from it at the last moment. A guy would drag him down rather than tackle him, and it's the main reason why he's the NFL all time rushing leader, because despite the fact that he carried the ball a TON, he didn't absorb the hits other RB's did. Barry Sanders is the best back I've ever seen, but Emmitt gets credit for doing it longer because he preserved his body by not taking the same hits. Manziel is similar, he runs to avoid the contact, and worms his way out of hits at the last split-second. Vick never learned that, and RGIII is even worse at it. Johnny Football will be just fine. I'm more worried about the propensity to wing it and let his WR's bail him out...that won't work as well at the next level (unless you're Matthew Stafford).

[Skinny_Bastard 154]

 

Yes, do that. And what you will see is a kid who scrambles his way out of hits, not into them. I've never been a fan of the Dallas Cowboys, although Emmitt Smith has more respect from me than lots of other players. You rarely ever saw Emmitt run away from a tackle, but he always moved away from it at the last moment. A guy would drag him down rather than tackle him, and it's the main reason why he's the NFL all time rushing leader, because despite the fact that he carried the ball a TON, he didn't absorb the hits other RB's did. Barry Sanders is the best back I've ever seen, but Emmitt gets credit for doing it longer because he preserved his body by not taking the same hits. Manziel is similar, he runs to avoid the contact, and worms his way out of hits at the last split-second. Vick never learned that, and RGIII is even worse at it. Johnny Football will be just fine. I'm more worried about the propensity to wing it and let his WR's bail him out...that won't work as well at the next level (unless you're Matthew Stafford).

 

You really think he can scramble and be better than M. Vick? He's a slower version of Vick with a far weaker arm.

I'm not buying the hype. I think he'll be a backup QB in this league at best.

 

Look at the top passers this season. 14 of the top 15 have the same identical trait..

 

1 Peyton Manning DEN QB 450 659 68.3 41.2 5,477 8.3 342.3 55 10 289 43.9 78T 68 13 18 115.1 2 Drew Brees NO QB 446 650 68.6 40.6 5,162 7.9 322.6 39 12 244 37.5 76T 67 15 37 104.7 3 Matthew Stafford DET QB 371 634 58.5 39.6 4,650 7.3 290.6 29 19 221 34.9 87 62 10 23 84.2 4 Matt Ryan ATL QB 439 651 67.4 40.7 4,515 6.9 282.2 26 17 225 34.6 81T 44 9 44 89.6 5 Philip Rivers SD QB 378 544 69.5 34.0 4,478 8.2 279.9 32 11 230 42.3 60T 60 6 30 105.5 6 Tom Brady NE QB 380 628 60.5 39.2 4,343 6.9 271.4 25 11 225 35.8 81T 49 8 40 87.3 7 Andy Dalton CIN QB 363 586 61.9 36.6 4,293 7.3 268.3 33 20 204 34.8 82T 56 15 29 88.8 8 Carson Palmer ARI QB 362 572 63.3 35.8 4,274 7.5 267.1 24 22 204 35.7 91T 49 9 41 83.9 9 Ben Roethlisberger PIT QB 375 584 64.2 36.5 4,261 7.3 266.3 28 14 205 35.1 67 60 10 42 92.0 10 Ryan Tannehill MIA QB 355 588 60.4 36.8 3,913 6.7 244.6 24 17 204 34.7 67 46 10 58 81.7 11 Joe Flacco BAL QB 362 614 59.0 38.4 3,912 6.4 244.5 19 22 189 30.8 74 45 14 48 73.1 12 Tony Romo DAL QB 342 535 63.9 35.7 3,828 7.2 255.2 31 10 194 36.3 82T 44 7 35 96.7 13 Andrew Luck IND QB 343 570 60.2 35.6 3,822 6.7 238.9 23 9 185 32.5 73T 43 9 32 87.0 14 Eli Manning NYG QB 317 551 57.5 34.4 3,818 6.9 238.6 18 27 174 31.6 70T 54 7 39 69.4 15 Cam Newton CAR QB 292 473 61.7 29.6 3,379 7.1 211.2 24 13 169 35.7 79T 33 7 43 88.8

[Skinny_Bastard 154]

At 6' feet tall, Brees is an outliner.

He is also a PURE pocket passer that almost NEVER runs.

 

What Johnny football is trying to bring have shown very little potential for success. A star weak arm QB with good scrambling skills haven't been seen for decades.

I was one of M. Vick's biggest supporter when he came out of school. My debate with Football_Scooter here was well documented. I thought the QB position would change forever when Vick arrived in Atlanta. I thought he was going to reinvent. In many aspect, he did…but his style of play have shown that it can't be a long term solution. No matter how quick or elusive you are, if you put yourself in a constant position to get hit…you are going to get hit…and get hurt.

 

The pure pocket passer are different. They don't get hit very often because they work on getting the ball out quicker. They learn to read defense. They understand the 2nd and 3rd and 4th passing options. Since they can't use 'scramble' or 'running' as an outlet, they use check down. This is a passing league and all directions says you need to be able to throw effectively to win and win consistently year in and year out.

[RoadLizard 73]

College player IMO

As most of them are. That's because there is NO defense played in college ever. It's like video game football for these guys on offense. Then, they play against a real NFL a defense. Uh oh. Honestly, college football does less to prepare players for the pros than any other sports farm or amateur leagues do. Of course some make it really big and do work out but I suspect they were going to be good anyways and did it mostly with their own hard work like manning or other students of the game.

 

He'll get drafted early and hyped up but .... Well....... We shall see.

[murf74 461]

As most of them are. That's because there is NO defense played in college ever. It's like video game football for these guys on offense. Then, they play against a real NFL a defense. Uh oh. Honestly, college football does less to prepare players for the pros than any other sports farm or amateur leagues do. Of course some make it really big and do work out but I suspect they were going to be good anyways and did it mostly with their own hard work like manning or other students of the game.

 

He'll get drafted early and hyped up but .... Well....... We shall see.

 

NFL has totally become video game easy on offense outside of just a small handful of good defensive teams.

 

If you have a good QB, the only think keeping your from scoring over 30 pts a game is the playcalling by coaches that kid themselves that they need balance.

[RoadLizard 73]

 

NFL has totally become video game easy on offense outside of just a small handful of good defensive teams.

 

If you have a good QB, the only think keeping your from scoring over 30 pts a game is the playcalling by coaches that kid themselves that they need balance.

Yeah, you're right. Still - new QBs often get introduced to the NFL rather harshly. Even Manning and Aikman were 1-15 in their first year, I believe

[LunaTick 29]

I have not watched any of his games.

The "high lights" I have seen of his performance is either off balanced throws or scrambles for TD.

 

These have me concerned as a fan of an NFL team for two reasons. 1. They don't promote what matters or makes a difference for an NFL qb. 2. Makes me want to bundle him with Ponder, Freeman, While his personality seems more like Ryan Leaf.

I wouldn't be surprised if he is drafted, he doesn't give one of those fist pumps Yeah's guys that get drafted in the first round and are never heard of again (few of this being wrs I have fortunately have forgotten and will not waste my time researching for them.).

 

My concern with the state of QB and the NFL are the following

 

1. Stat hounds and the NFL draft combine. Too often it seems to many are enamoured with results only reproduciable in the labs. The only thing of importance there is what shape you show up in (as measured simply pass or fail). Are you in shape of a fat ass. What you say in the interviews.

 

2. Lack of QB on active rosters in the NFL. It used to be teams had 3 qb on roster and a practice squad guy. Today, often is the case, there are only 2 and a practice squad. This year we saw many teams not have depth there when needed (see Green Bay). Even if for not lack of trying. I see the squad size increasing soon for this and general injury issues. (I would love to remove the exposed issue with moving players from/to practice squads myself)

 

3. ESPN. I blame them for bad play all over pro sports. They feature the gimmicky style play and not the big and great plays that matter. (dive/spear tackles of CB, Johnny Football hightlights (that are not). I think ESPN should be a plantif or sue by the leagues in these players quality of life issue suits.

 

4. Most just don't seem to know what is what anymore. Is it that big that Peyton looks the field. A full 1/3 of starting QB cannot do this. Is that that big of a talent to learn???

[Cruzer 1,992]

Manziel bigger than M. Vick? No.

Manziel faster than M. Vick? No.

Manziel have bigger arm than M. Vick? No.

 

The kid is fun to watch and he's flashy - but you can have him. The jumpball prayers he threw to 6'5" Mike Evans aren't going to work in the NFL, nor is all that ridiculous wild ass chicken free running crap. NFL bust written all over him.

[jgcrawfish 232]

 

You really think he can scramble and be better than M. Vick? He's a slower version of Vick with a far weaker arm.

I'm not buying the hype. I think he'll be a backup QB in this league at best.

 

Look at the top passers this season. 14 of the top 15 have the same identical trait..

 

 

No, he's not a better scrambler than Vick, and no he doesn't have Vick's arm. But he's far and away superior in the football IQ department, and he doesn't take the stupid hits that Vick does, or that RGIII does. Russell Wilson isn't in the completely indecipherable list of stats you posted, but he does win football games (as much as dislike the Seahawks and particularly a couple of their "fans" on this bored I have to admit it). If you want measureables, Manziel is going to lose out. I'm just telling you what I've witnessed, and I've only seen two players who did things similar to Manziel...Fran Tarkenton and Randall Cunningham. And I've only seen one guy who has the "it" factor like him, Joe Montana. I'm not at all saying he's sure fire...just saying doubt him at your own risk.

[LunaTick 29]

Followup to my earlier post.

 

Listen to this podcast when Rich Gannon comes on.

http://www.kfan.com/media/podcast-dan-barreiro-kfan-fm-1003-KFAN_Barreiro/1230-barreiro-hr3-rich-gannon-leber-24131929/

 

 

While focused on the Vikings, provides good general information.

 

Last, I am not compensated to tell the NFL how to do their business. So my posts are not necessarily going to reach a conclusion or a finished thought.

 

But, as a fan, you know it when you see it and you can see when someone doesn't have it and may never have it.

Issue, how can those in the front office not have a clue.

The most clueless at the moment being the front office in TN. Making football decission to fit a marketing plan. Wrong guy left there.

[c.hammer 6]

It will just be a matter if time before his "speed and elusiveness" will get him crushed in the big leagues. NFL d-lines must be salivating at the mouth to destroy him and his arrogance.

 

He'll make some plays, surprise some d's, then get injured by being reckless.

[LunaTick 29]

Thing I am getting with rubes is the idea you have to draft a Franchise QB in the First Round and with a top 10 pick.

 

How many of the HOF QB's out there fit that billing. A bet quite few. meaning very little.

Heck even Rodgers, who was expected to possibly be drafted in the top 10 almost fell out of the first round altogether.

 

While teams like the Rams may want to draft another QB this season, there are only a few teams that have to draft a QB (Vikes, Bucs, Texans) to name a few.

Others, may want to. If they do, should train them for 2 years before exposing them in the NFL. Will see if that happens. But that is what happened with Rodgers, btw.

 

Don't expect the Wilson model will work.

Expect the Rodgers might

[Skinny_Bastard 154]

 

No, he's not a better scrambler than Vick, and no he doesn't have Vick's arm. But he's far and away superior in the football IQ department, and he doesn't take the stupid hits that Vick does, or that RGIII does. Russell Wilson isn't in the completely indecipherable list of stats you posted, but he does win football games (as much as dislike the Seahawks and particularly a couple of their "fans" on this bored I have to admit it). If you want measureables, Manziel is going to lose out. I'm just telling you what I've witnessed, and I've only seen two players who did things similar to Manziel...Fran Tarkenton and Randall Cunningham. And I've only seen one guy who has the "it" factor like him, Joe Montana. I'm not at all saying he's sure fire...just saying doubt him at your own risk.

 

I think that's where the trap is. How exciting you look at the college levels have very little indication on your future success in the NFL. It's been discussed before, there's no way of knowing his football IQ because he throws 79% of his passes to his primary read. He plays in a spread-offense that requires him to make one read, if it's not there take off. Compare his highlights with Bridgewater, they couldn't be anymore different. Bridgewater goes through his read progression in a 'pro-style' offense. Manziel on the other hand is always scrambling playing behind 2 first round Offensive linemen and a 1st round WR, a lot of his 'highlight's end with him throwing one up for grabs. Evans is a major part of his 'success' in College. If Evan isn't 6'5" and able to grab passes multiple defenders, would Manziel still be consider a first round pick by many? I don't think so..

 

I think he'll struggle in the NFL early and then fall into being a 'good' backup. I won't be surprise if they try to convert him into a slot WR.....

[Stewburtx8 67]

The qualifications for SB success are quite simple, Big, Tall, Strong Arm, Courage to throw the ball into coverage. So in a way you are correct that few NFL teams have one. However, that does not stop them from loading rosters with so many pretenders that there might be 6 spots for ANY QBs coming out of college this year to make roster. 6 might even be generous. Some years the number might be 15. I do not get why someone who claims to be intelligent cannot understand markets.

 

 

There is ALWAYS a need for QB's in the NFL. These QB's started a game or multiple games this year:

 

Tavaris Jackson

Seneca Wallace

TJ Yates

Jeff Tuel

Blaine Gabbert

Brian Hoyer

Scott Tolzien

Josh Freeman

Thad Lewis

Matt Flynn

Matt McGloin

Christian Ponder

Kellen Clemens

Case Keenum

Terrelle Pryor

 

There are at least 5-6 teams that are in the market for a starting QB. But there are also a ton of teams that are always in the market for a upgrade at backup QB or 3rd string QB.

[Stewburtx8 67]

I'm not sure Johnny Football should be a top 5 pick but, Bortles should be at best a 3rd round pick and McCarron will be a career backup if he plays his cards right.

 

 

Bortles has a chance to be the top QB taken. The draft advisory board graded him as a first round pick. He has good size, elite arm strength, and good athletic ability. He reminds me a lot of someone like Jake Locker in terms of both his ability and has ascension up draft boards.

[jgcrawfish 232]

 

I think that's where the trap is. How exciting you look at the college levels have very little indication on your future success in the NFL. It's been discussed before, there's no way of knowing his football IQ because he throws 79% of his passes to his primary read. He plays in a spread-offense that requires him to make one read, if it's not there take off. Compare his highlights with Bridgewater, they couldn't be anymore different. Bridgewater goes through his read progression in a 'pro-style' offense. Manziel on the other hand is always scrambling playing behind 2 first round Offensive linemen and a 1st round WR, a lot of his 'highlight's end with him throwing one up for grabs. Evans is a major part of his 'success' in College. If Evan isn't 6'5" and able to grab passes multiple defenders, would Manziel still be consider a first round pick by many? I don't think so..

 

I think he'll struggle in the NFL early and then fall into being a 'good' backup. I won't be surprise if they try to convert him into a slot WR.....

And last year when he lost offensive lineman to the NFL, they said he wouldn't be as good, and all he did was put up better #'s this year. You sort of contradict yourself. On those wild "scramble around" plays I'm fairly sure the WR he throws to isn't/wasn't his primary read. The term "Pro Style" offense is dying, much like the "traditional pocket-style" QB is changing. The game is evolving, as are the players. Again, doubt at your own risk.

[Skinny_Bastard 154]

The term "Pro Style" offense is dying, much like the "traditional pocket-style" QB is changing. The game is evolving, as are the players.

 

As much as you want to believe that, it isn't. The traditional pocket-style QB will always be the prefer choice to lead and win a title in the NFL.

[RoadLizard 73]

I see a lot of talent and more desire than I may have ever seen in a player. He will absolutely do everything to become an NFL player and his coaches and teammates will love him.

 

I see something like Jeff Garcia.

Garcia? Oh, so manziel is all that but will only be a mediocre career backup like Garcia? What to aim high..... hilarious.

[RoadLizard 73]

 

As much as you want to believe that, it isn't. The traditional pocket-style QB will always be the prefer choice to lead and win a title in the NFL.

100% yes - Id take Manning, Brady, Brees, Rivers or Rodgers over ANY chuck and duck running QB. A QB must be able to pass and read a defense. Thats priority one.

[Skinny_Bastard 154]

100% yes - Id take Manning, Brady, Brees, Rivers or Rodgers over ANY chuck and duck running QB. A QB must be able to pass and read a defense. Thats priority one.

 

Yupppp...

The ability to run will hinder a young QB's ability to evolve as a superstar QB in this league. If you want to be an ELITE QB in the NFL, scramble less, run less, go through your read progression and get rid of the ball quickly.