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Super Cubs

2014 off season dynasty and keeper thread

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Someone has started this type of thread the past few years and they have been great. Especially with the help board being little to no help this time of year. Feel free to post all your dynasty and keeper questions here and hopefully you'll get the answers your looking for. Lets get started.

 

keeper, standard scoring/ppr, pick 2 of the 3 to keep, 1 to trade

 

AJ Green

Percy Harvin

Keenan Allen

 

 

 

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You may as well have asked, "can Percy Harvin stay healthy?"

 

I would say keeping AJ is a no brainer.

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I am all in on quinton patton. He shouldnt be terribly expensive to acquire with a potential to make big strides in the SF offense.

 

Sam Bradford IF st louis gets some real receivers. He can probably be had for almost nothing.

 

I am keeping nick foles, but thats a more obvious choice.

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No questions or answers here, just wanted to share the trades that have happened in my league since the offseason began and my thoughts:

 

FF Today traded DeMarco Murray, Andre Brown, 1.9 and 4.9 to Junkyard Jake for Matt Forte, Kendall Wright, 2.2 and 3.2

Fantasy Sharks traded Coby Fleener to DraftCalc for 3.3

FF Today traded Eric Decker to DraftCalc for 2.3 and Kenny Britt

DraftCalc traded Shane Vereen and Eric Decker for Ray Rice

 

To summarize for FF Today fans: Murray, Brown, Decker, 1.9 and 4.9 for Forte, Wright, Britt, 2.2, 2.3 and 3.2

 

Given what I've seen others post in their dynasty leagues, this probably looks like a fairly non-active group. Part of the problem is that two of the owners (unfortunately two of the ones I could do a lot of business with) haven't been around for at least two months while a few others are seemingly content with mediocre teams. Heck, the team picking first posted that he was fielding offers for 1.1 about two weeks ago and hasn't been back since.

 

With all that said, I like what I've been able to do so far by dealing two injury-prone players (Murray and Brown) and one player about to lose a lot of value in all likelihood (Decker) in return for a top 5-8 dynasty RB (Forte), a long-term WR2 (Wright), a worthwhile gamble (Britt) while also adding picks in what will be a very deep rookie draft. I may be able to deal Jordan Cameron (I have Jimmy Graham) and recoup a first-rounder as well. There's also a great chance I can acquire David Wilson for 2.9 and I may have enough ammunition with all my draft picks - assuming I can pull off the Cameron trade - to move up to 1.1 to draft Sammy Watkins if I so choose.

 

Feel free to share your thoughts.

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I think its awesome that you already have trading going on. Trades don't really start happening in my league till July. I think you got really good value in the trades. I curious what are your plans for Forte. Keep him or flip him? He's going in to his 7th season and turning 29 this year. If you are in it to win it this year he should be a good play. I don't really see long term value.

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Thanks Super Cubs. I'd be fine with keeping or flipping Forte, but my preference would be to include him in a (presumably big) package in order to get Doug Martin and the 1.1. We'll see if Forte, the first-rounder I hope to get back for Cameron and 1-2 of my three second-round picks are enough to make it happen.

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Standard scoring ppr keep 2

 

AJ Green

Dez

Murray

 

 

Leaning on the 2 stud W's.... but man if Murray could stay healthy I think he could be a top 3 RB. Lead the league in YPC

He only missed 2 games last year... he is getting better

 

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The problem with Murray - and ultimately the reason I dealt him - is because he is an upright runner. That style exposes a runner to injury and, in Murray's case, repeated injuries. I've trumpeted Murray as a good keeper/dynasty RB for a couple of years now b/c he could be an all-purpose monster, but backs that miss 2-6 games every year early in their career usually don't learn how to "avoid" injury as they get older.

 

I would lean towards Green and Dez as well.

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If you've got room on your roster to throw shiite against the wall, Latavius Murray, Raiders RB who spent the year on IR. McFadden and Jennings are FAs, and Murray has great measurables.

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Doug I like the Kendall Wright add and your angle on Doug Martin. Britt can't stay healthy. Is it just me but I think norvell turner boosts everyone in Minn

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If Kaepernick comes up I think he's a buy low guy.

SF opens it up a little next year

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Our league is switching to ppr this coming season and this will be my first time playing in a ppr league. So I'm basically a rookie all over again.

 

My Current Rbs - McCoy, Woodhead, Ellington, Pierre Thomas, Rainey

 

McCoy is the no brainer here leaving either Woodhead or Ellington as my #2 option. Who would you rather have as your #2? I'm currently leaning towards Ellington going with the youth movement.

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Vereen and Decker for Ray Rice? I assume that happened prior to the knockout, but even then it was a dicey move.

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Our league is switching to ppr this coming season and this will be my first time playing in a ppr league. So I'm basically a rookie all over again.

 

My Current Rbs - McCoy, Woodhead, Ellington, Pierre Thomas, Rainey

 

McCoy is the no brainer here leaving either Woodhead or Ellington as my #2 option. Who would you rather have as your #2? I'm currently leaning towards Ellington going with the youth movement.

 

 

Ellington and its not even close.

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Doug I like the Kendall Wright add and your angle on Doug Martin. Britt can't stay healthy. Is it just me but I think norvell turner boosts everyone in Minn

I like the Wright add as well and was really surprised the other owner included him in the deal. I probably would have settled for Tavon Austin, who I had asked for in previous offers. The fact that I essentially traded down about five spots early in the draft (1.9 to 2.2) to get two better players (Forte > Murray, Wright > Brown) and a better later pick (3.2 to 4.9) seemed like a rather small price to pay.

 

I recognize Britt is a complete wild-card, but when given the option of 2.3 and Britt or 2.3 and 3.3, I liked my odds of Britt just a bit more. Just like I think Decker's new employer will probably hurt him in dynasty, I think Britt's situation can't really get any worse than it was in Tennessee. I don't mind giving that kind of talent 1-2 years to sit on my bench in order to see if he lives up to his potential.

 

I also agree with you on the addition of Turner in Minnesota. I haven't even given a thought about how I'm going to project players for next fall yet, but I'd be a bit surprised if Patterson isn't a top 15 WR. I think Peterson has 50+ catch potential...and so on. All this assumes, however, that an upgrade to Ponder is coming.

 

Vereen and Decker for Ray Rice? I assume that happened prior to the knockout, but even then it was a dicey move.

The trade happened a couple of days before the news broke. I agree with you that it was still a dicey move by the host site (DraftCalc), however, Vereen has shown no ability to play a full schedule and Decker's stock could really take a hit if he ends up somewhere like Cleveland (possibly with Manziel) or the Jets. I did a thorough analysis of Decker's potential landing spots before I traded him and it appeared to me that Cleveland and Carolina were his most likely options.

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We can include one more trade into my busy offseason:

 

FF Today traded DeMarco Murray, Andre Brown, 1.9 and 4.9 to Junkyard Jake for Matt Forte, Kendall Wright, 2.2 and 3.2

Fantasy Sharks traded Coby Fleener to DraftCalc for 3.3

FF Today traded Eric Decker to DraftCalc for 2.3 and Kenny Britt

DraftCalc traded Shane Vereen and Eric Decker for Ray Rice

FF Today traded Jordan Cameron to Dynasty League Football for 1.8

 

To summarize for FF Today fans: Murray, Brown, Decker, Cameron, 1.9 and 4.9 for Forte, Wright, Britt, 1.8, 2.2, 2.3 and 3.2

 

SO...in arguably the deepest draft in the last 10 years, I have three of the first 15, four of the first 21 and five of the first 26 picks. Hopefully, that's enough ammunition to trade for Watkins if I choose to do so.

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Someone has started this type of thread the past few years and they have been great. Especially with the help board being little to no help this time of year. Feel free to post all your dynasty and keeper questions here and hopefully you'll get the answers your looking for. Lets get started.

 

keeper, standard scoring/ppr, pick 2 of the 3 to keep, 1 to trade

 

AJ Green

Percy Harvin

Keenan Allen

 

 

 

Funny, I've got Green and Harvin in my deep keeper. I'd keep Green and Allen though.

 

On Harvin, here is my scoop: We lose a draft pick per keeper. I'm currently planning on keeping Green, Gordon, and Morris. Then maybe Foles for a fourth rounder, and Harvin for a fifth? Or vice versa? Or one or the other? Either case leaves me with one RB after four or five rounds which makes me a little nervous. Thoughts?

 

We're currently non-PPR but looking to move to 1/2 pt PPR next season.

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AP....Are you buying or selling him?

 

Matt I'm giving you my take mainly to go on record here. You know I sold AP + 1.06 for McCoy but I am NOT an AP seller in most leagues and I think he is a strong hold for teams that have a realistic shot at a championship. I think there is a very good chance he outperforms McCoy (better than 50-50) this year,and actually hope he does as a MCCoy owner because I think the most likely way MCCoy would have a better FF year is by being overutilized.

 

The league I sold in is a 3yr contract league and AP was in his last year for me. I do think his value falls next off-season even with a fabulous year because guys start looking at time counting down for him and I would have had no choice but to trade him. I would likely have kept him in a dynasty where I had the option of running him into the ground.

 

There is some risk to roster value associated for sure because if he does not have a great year or if he gets hurt it could become very difficult to move him at all next off-season. As I said his value probably falls even with a great year so roster value risk is lose-lose but for me he is still player #1 in terms of production for most formats.

 

If you own him in a league where you roster is in rebuild mode say you have to sell though I would think you may have a more opportune spot nearer the season.

 

I think the addition of Turner with Patterson's ability to stretch will cause defenses to have to honor the big play potential even if the success rate is low and AP will have a chance to have a higher median YPC though potentially with fewer big plays. There is obviously a history of a RB having great statistical success much longer than anyone thought possible with LT in Norv's past as well.

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AP....Are you buying or selling him?

I too sold Peterson, but that was in our other dynasty league Matt. I sold him because my team died before the season even started. It was the most brutal swath of injuries i have ever seen, so i sold.

 

If i had AP right now i think this is the best time to sell and get max value.

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If i had AP right now i think this is the best time to sell and get max value.

 

IMO that would have been last year after he'd racked up 2K yards. If you're under no contract restraints right now AP is a hold. If the Vikes manage to bring in a competent QB and shore up their Defense so they're not playing from behind all the time AP's value will rise. IF all the hypotheticals in that last sentence come true and you're looking to move him I'd wait till he does well early in the season and move him then.

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Vereen and Decker for Ray Rice? I assume that happened prior to the knockout, but even then it was a dicey move.

 

I was going to post the same thing. I can't imagine moving Rice for either of those 2 straight up today.

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We can include one more trade into my busy offseason:

 

FF Today traded DeMarco Murray, Andre Brown, 1.9 and 4.9 to Junkyard Jake for Matt Forte, Kendall Wright, 2.2 and 3.2

Fantasy Sharks traded Coby Fleener to DraftCalc for 3.3

FF Today traded Eric Decker to DraftCalc for 2.3 and Kenny Britt

DraftCalc traded Shane Vereen and Eric Decker for Ray Rice

FF Today traded Jordan Cameron to Dynasty League Football for 1.8

 

To summarize for FF Today fans: Murray, Brown, Decker, Cameron, 1.9 and 4.9 for Forte, Wright, Britt, 1.8, 2.2, 2.3 and 3.2

 

SO...in arguably the deepest draft in the last 10 years, I have three of the first 15, four of the first 21 and five of the first 26 picks. Hopefully, that's enough ammunition to trade for Watkins if I choose to do so.

 

I think I'm a little higher on Andre Brown than Doug and I don't think Britt is ever going to get his head on straight enough to make a significant fantasy impact but I'm liking these trades. Acquiring Forte and Wright is golden in a PPR league and even if you keep all the draft picks and don't trade up for Watkins, you should be in a good position to replenish your depth. Nice moves!

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Matt I'm giving you my take mainly to go on record here. You know I sold AP + 1.06 for McCoy but I am NOT an AP seller in most leagues and I think he is a strong hold for teams that have a realistic shot at a championship. I think there is a very good chance he outperforms McCoy (better than 50-50) this year,and actually hope he does as a MCCoy owner because I think the most likely way MCCoy would have a better FF year is by being overutilized.

 

The league I sold in is a 3yr contract league and AP was in his last year for me. I do think his value falls next off-season even with a fabulous year because guys start looking at time counting down for him and I would have had no choice but to trade him. I would likely have kept him in a dynasty where I had the option of running him into the ground.

 

There is some risk to roster value associated for sure because if he does not have a great year or if he gets hurt it could become very difficult to move him at all next off-season. As I said his value probably falls even with a great year so roster value risk is lose-lose but for me he is still player #1 in terms of production for most formats.

 

If you own him in a league where you roster is in rebuild mode say you have to sell though I would think you may have a more opportune spot nearer the season.

 

I think the addition of Turner with Patterson's ability to stretch will cause defenses to have to honor the big play potential even if the success rate is low and AP will have a chance to have a higher median YPC though potentially with fewer big plays. There is obviously a history of a RB having great statistical success much longer than anyone thought possible with LT in Norv's past as well.

Since I'm the owner who you traded with I'll give my take as well.

 

While I like McCoy & he was huge for my team's success was largely in part to him, I had to move him due to him being in his final contract year as well. Getting another stud RB in AP added with the 1.06 pick was best case scenario for myself. AP's age & somewhat questionable supporting cast due to the unknowns with the QB position in Minnesota is concerning. The only year AP had a solid supporting cast was 2009 with Favre leading the offense. I think the Vikes improve the O-line play & Norv Turner is a huge upgrade over Musgrave as the OC.

 

With not having a pick in the 1st 2 rounds prior to our trade, getting the 1.06 pick in the rookie draft was huge for me. My RB corp is amazing (AP, Charles & Lacey) but outside of Josh Gordon, my WR's & TE's are terrible & ruined my postseason run. Plenty of solid players but still some holes to fill.

 

McCoy was tough to let go but it was a trade that was good for both sides, IMO.

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Since I'm the owner who you traded with I'll give my take as well.

 

While I like McCoy & he was huge for my team's success was largely in part to him, I had to move him due to him being in his final contract year as well. Getting another stud RB in AP added with the 1.06 pick was best case scenario for myself. AP's age & somewhat questionable supporting cast due to the unknowns with the QB position in Minnesota is concerning. The only year AP had a solid supporting cast was 2009 with Favre leading the offense. I think the Vikes improve the O-line play & Norv Turner is a huge upgrade over Musgrave as the OC.

 

With not having a pick in the 1st 2 rounds prior to our trade, getting the 1.06 pick in the rookie draft was huge for me. My RB corp is amazing (AP, Charles & Lacey) but outside of Josh Gordon, my WR's & TE's are terrible & ruined my postseason run. Plenty of solid players but still some holes to fill.

 

McCoy was tough to let go but it was a trade that was good for both sides, IMO.

So both AP and McCoy cant be kept next year due to contract status? (Your league rules)

If thats the case, then the 1.06 seems like a freebee just to swap stud backs. You each have your own opinion on exactly how valuable each guy will be. But they're in the same tier 1 RB group none the less.

If that is the way I'm reading it. Give me the RB and the 1.06 all day any day.

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We can include one more trade into my busy offseason:

 

FF Today traded DeMarco Murray, Andre Brown, 1.9 and 4.9 to Junkyard Jake for Matt Forte, Kendall Wright, 2.2 and 3.2

Fantasy Sharks traded Coby Fleener to DraftCalc for 3.3

FF Today traded Eric Decker to DraftCalc for 2.3 and Kenny Britt

DraftCalc traded Shane Vereen and Eric Decker for Ray Rice

FF Today traded Jordan Cameron to Dynasty League Football for 1.8

 

To summarize for FF Today fans: Murray, Brown, Decker, Cameron, 1.9 and 4.9 for Forte, Wright, Britt, 1.8, 2.2, 2.3 and 3.2

 

SO...in arguably the deepest draft in the last 10 years, I have three of the first 15, four of the first 21 and five of the first 26 picks. Hopefully, that's enough ammunition to trade for Watkins if I choose to do so.

Two more trades to add to the flurry of activity:

 

FF Calculator trades Nick Foles, Khiry Robinson, 3.5, 3.10 and 4.10 to DraftCalc for 1.3

DraftCalc trades C.J. Spiller and Fred Jackson to Dynasty League Football for Ben Tate and Vincent Jackson

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Since I'm the owner who you traded with I'll give my take as well.

 

While I like McCoy & he was huge for my team's success was largely in part to him, I had to move him due to him being in his final contract year as well. Getting another stud RB in AP added with the 1.06 pick was best case scenario for myself. AP's age & somewhat questionable supporting cast due to the unknowns with the QB position in Minnesota is concerning. The only year AP had a solid supporting cast was 2009 with Favre leading the offense. I think the Vikes improve the O-line play & Norv Turner is a huge upgrade over Musgrave as the OC.

 

With not having a pick in the 1st 2 rounds prior to our trade, getting the 1.06 pick in the rookie draft was huge for me. My RB corp is amazing (AP, Charles & Lacey) but outside of Josh Gordon, my WR's & TE's are terrible & ruined my postseason run. Plenty of solid players but still some holes to fill.

 

McCoy was tough to let go but it was a trade that was good for both sides, IMO.

The force that is FrozenBeerNuts ended your playoff run.

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So both AP and McCoy cant be kept next year due to contract status? (Your league rules)

If thats the case, then the 1.06 seems like a freebee just to swap stud backs. You each have your own opinion on exactly how valuable each guy will be. But they're in the same tier 1 RB group none the less.

If that is the way I'm reading it. Give me the RB and the 1.06 all day any day.

While I agree that getting the 1.06 pick skews the trade in my favor for this season, the other owner will be able to get better trade value when the next 3-year period is up since McCoy is only 25 (will be 28 then) while AP will be 31 in 3-years. I might have to flip AP next season if I want to get max value before the wear & tear catches up with him.

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So both AP and McCoy cant be kept next year due to contract status? (Your league rules)

If thats the case, then the 1.06 seems like a freebee just to swap stud backs. You each have your own opinion on exactly how valuable each guy will be. But they're in the same tier 1 RB group none the less.

If that is the way I'm reading it. Give me the RB and the 1.06 all day any day.

 

Thanks for making me feel great about that deal I was already feeling doubtful about Kopy! :doh:

Actually thank you for your viewpoint I appreciate it.

 

I do think those RBs are in the same tier for 2014 but I obviously don't agree that they are from a dynasty standpoint.

 

You can already see this idea reflected in dynasty startup drafts as AP generally goes significantly later. There is a theoretical difference in the expected production of AP vs McCoy over the course of the remaining careers so it follows there would be some value differential.

 

As for whether it was worth 1.06 or not that is an entirely different question. For most rosters I would say no, for mine, it really came down to feeling that this deal was better than any other the deal I could get now and also better than I thought I would get at the end of the year when I would have to deal him. Its also in the context of my current roster and picks I own. I traded the 1.02 last year for Andre Johnson for instance, and I don't want to see this roster fall off all at once. I did win the league last year and I owned 3 1st round picks at the time I traded the 1.06. I still own the 1.03 and to be perfectly honest while I love this draft and can't get enough in some leagues, this roster is in position to be very competitive again this year and I have to continue to roster significant current production. I also have slots committed to prospects I like such as Michael and Kelce so the bottom line is there is only so much room.

 

Now, can you give me a couple of draft eligible Stacey-like sleepers you developed an affinity for while watching college ball? :thumbsup:

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Good analysis Kopy. I still think it was a win/win trade for both of us. I wouldn't have made the deal if the pick was anything less because McCoy in dynasty leagues is most likely the 1a/1b to Jamaal Charles in regards to overall value headed into 2014.

 

That's why it was tough to break up that 1-2 punch I enjoyed last season in my starting lineup.

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I wouldn't have made the deal if the pick was anything less because McCoy in dynasty leagues is most likely the 1a/1b to Jamaal Charles in regards to overall value headed into 2014.

 

 

You definitely drive a hard bargain! Lets just keep in mind this win-win was a bit in your favor so the next time we find something that helps us both you can give me a bit of a break! :doublethumbsup:

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I just completed a trade in one of the FFToday leagues

 

Dobson, Fauria, and 3:05, 3:06

 

for

 

Ridley and 2015 2nd

 

I broke this trade down in two parts. One, I already have one first and two 2nds. I also have the 3:04. I'm not going to draft six rookies this year. My primary goal is to always have multiple 1sts and 2nds in a draft. Preferably both, but ideally at least one of the rounds.

 

As for the players involved, I'm a buyer of Ridley provided its not too expensive to attain him. Dobsons foot issue worries me and Fauria could be a hit or miss. Guess it really comes down to each respective owners belief in upside for any of these players.

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Thanks for making me feel great about that deal I was already feeling doubtful about Kopy! :doh:

Actually thank you for your viewpoint I appreciate it.

 

I do think those RBs are in the same tier for 2014 but I obviously don't agree that they are from a dynasty standpoint.

 

You can already see this idea reflected in dynasty startup drafts as AP generally goes significantly later. There is a theoretical difference in the expected production of AP vs McCoy over the course of the remaining careers so it follows there would be some value differential.

 

As for whether it was worth 1.06 or not that is an entirely different question. For most rosters I would say no, for mine, it really came down to feeling that this deal was better than any other the deal I could get now and also better than I thought I would get at the end of the year when I would have to deal him. Its also in the context of my current roster and picks I own. I traded the 1.02 last year for Andre Johnson for instance, and I don't want to see this roster fall off all at once. I did win the league last year and I owned 3 1st round picks at the time I traded the 1.06. I still own the 1.03 and to be perfectly honest while I love this draft and can't get enough in some leagues, this roster is in position to be very competitive again this year and I have to continue to roster significant current production. I also have slots committed to prospects I like such as Michael and Kelce so the bottom line is there is only so much room.

 

Now, can you give me a couple of draft eligible Stacey-like sleepers you developed an affinity for while watching college ball? :thumbsup:

In due time. Outside of the WR class, I'm not too high on this years kids.

But yes, I do have a Stacey at RB this year too. He might be the only guy I even care for at this point.

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You definitely drive a hard bargain! Lets just keep in mind this win-win was a bit in your favor so the next time we find something that helps us both you can give me a bit of a break! :doublethumbsup:

Haha! You proposed it & I unfortunately broke the screen on my GS3 hitting the accept button. You gotta throw in a new phone for me in our next trade then :)

 

I like how the rich is trying to stay richer here boss man!

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We can include one more trade into my busy offseason:

 

FF Today traded DeMarco Murray, Andre Brown, 1.9 and 4.9 to Junkyard Jake for Matt Forte, Kendall Wright, 2.2 and 3.2

Fantasy Sharks traded Coby Fleener to DraftCalc for 3.3

FF Today traded Eric Decker to DraftCalc for 2.3 and Kenny Britt

DraftCalc traded Shane Vereen and Eric Decker for Ray Rice

FF Today traded Jordan Cameron to Dynasty League Football for 1.8

 

FF Calculator trades Nick Foles, Khiry Robinson, 3.5, 3.10 and 4.10 to DraftCalc for 1.3

DraftCalc trades C.J. Spiller and Fred Jackson to Dynasty League Football for Ben Tate and Vincent Jackson

DraftCalc trades Joe Flacco to Fantasy Sharks for Tim Wright (NEW)

 

********** I gotta say, DraftCalc is riding a tidal wave with some of these deals IMO. I think he is going to regret the Rice and Flacco trades, but he got a lot of value for 1.3 and may have done very well in the Spiller trade.

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