The Riddler

Calvin is a freak, for sure, but Stafford staying healthy is a big IF. I'd personally go with Andre, but I'd be happy to end up with any of these guys as my top WR.

I searched through the boards a bit, but couldn't find anything exactly on this topic. What I'm looking for, and what I think would be valuable, is a complete list of every team and if they had offseason coaching (head or OC) changes, a projected new starting QB, or a new offensive system (e.g. West Coast) installed. My thought is, if you're in the mid rounds and trying to decide between two players, you go with the guy from the "established" system. I think it's even more important this year given the quick post-lockout turnaround. Obviously, a traded player or free agent moving teams is one thing, but what about guys remaining with their team who have seen the whole environment change around them? I know there are 8 new head coaches, but I'm hoping someone has already done the rest of the research on this...and then we can just steal it It's not going to affect my thoughts on a guy like Adrian Peterson at all, but for 3rd and 4th tier players all of the changes could be pretty eye-opening.

I bumped Nicks down a bit because of the Nnamdi effect, but I still have him pegged as a top 5 WR. Also, Dallas plays Philly in week 16 for those with Dez Bryant and championship aspirations. For what it's worth, Roddy White also has to play the Eagles once. As if he wasn't already, looks like Andre Johnson is clearly the #1 WR option.

I think I'd keep Slaton over Smith (either of them). But your keep 2 QB philosophy seems right.

I would trade Marshall for a better RB. I think he's in for a rough year. You just need to find someone who's still high on him. Pretty solid overall though.

I'll be the dissenter and go with B. I don't like LDT over AP, but I like Calvin/Colston much more than I like Marshall/Edwards. Calvin is a freak and Marshall will have serious issues without Cutler. Plus Daniels is underrated and Winslow is overrated.

If you start with Fitz, Andre, and Moss I'm not sure it matters who your RBs are. I'd target 2 RBs in the 2nd/3rd (get one at least), but go with value if a top QB or even TE is available.

I have the chance to keep one of either Gonzalez or Johnson as a late round keeper. They're ranked very close and each is intriguing. If Harrison goes down, Gonzalez could have a huge year. Johnson could also potentially be the #1 WR in a Martz offense, so there's potential there too. They could both also have mediocre years... This isn't a decision that's going to make or break my season, but it could be a huge boost if I pick correctly. What do you guys think? Any Indy or San Fran homers have any insight?

Hopefully Hines won't be out too long (if at all), but is Washington a decent fill in for him? Supposedly, he'd be stepping right into Ward's spot while Holmes stays at his. So, I'd imagine the targets may be similar. Actually, similar deal in Houston. Can Walter be considered a decent short term fill in since he's pretty much all they've got?

Just wanted to update this based on some new info and add a few thoughts. Anthony Thomas - So the Bills have confirmed they will go RBBC this year which has to hurt the Lynch projections at this point. But it's good news if you want to sneak in and grab the A-Train somewhere in the 13/14th round. The guy has never started a full season, never hit 1200 rushing yards, and he's maxed out at 7 TDs in a season. But he could provide a boost especially from a very late draft position. Jerious Norwood - You've got to believe the handwriting is on the wall for Warrick Dunn. He's 32 and out with a herniated disk. That said, Norwood can step up and show that he's the answer long-term in ATL. Also, with the Vick situation being what it is, I'd look for the Falcons to try to pound the ball on the ground (does Joey scare any defenses?). Should work out nicely for Norwood. Kenny Irons - I've noticed lately that Rudi is slowly but surely sliding down the ADP list. My gut tells me that this is just people looking for the sexy new pick and de-valuing a guy who is consistent if not spectacular. If you're looking for 1300/12 and consistent performance across the board, Rudi is your guy. I'm curious to see how much of a factor, if any, Irons will be this year. Rudi's been a horse for this team and he's only 27. With Palmer all the way recovered and legit threats in CJ and TJ, it should open things up even more for Rudi.

I did some research and found these backs entering a contract year. I listed their age and ADP (12 Team) and some thoughts on what they might accomplish this/next year. TJ Duckett DET Age 26 ADP --- Former first round pick, still young, averaged 9 TDs from '03 - '05. I'm scared of Kevin Jones so I don't see why Duckett couldn't get goal line carries in a RBBC with Tatum Bell. Worth a late round flier, and could be a factor next year. Ciatrick Fason MIN Age 24 ADP --- Buried on the depth chart, not much upside. Julius Jones DAL Age 25 ADP 6.03 Depending on what Barber does this year, Jones could be a steal in the 6th round. Either he'll have a big year and stay in Dallas, or he'll leave and start somewhere else next year. Intriguing option depending on how late you can get him. I wouldn't want to rely on him as one of my top 2 RBs this year though. Musa Smith BAL Age 25 ADP --- Third on the Ravens depth chart, he could be productive if given a chance someplace else. Might be worth taking a flier on the guy. Aaron Stecker NO Age 31 ADP --- With Antonio Pittman coming in, Stecker won't have much to do this year. And at 31, he probably won't do much elsewhere either. Anthony Thomas BUF Age 29 ADP 14.01 Sure, the Bills got Marshawn Lynch, but don't forget about the A-Train. He could have a couple of productive years left if he gets a shot. Definitely worth grabbing that late if the rook doesn't play well. And who knows what can happen next year? Look at Travis Henry. Labrandon Toefield JAX Age 26 ADP --- Like Fason in Minnesota, he's way down the depth chart. Michael Turner SD Age 25 ADP 9.08 I think we all know about this guy. Worth taking even earlier to torture the LDT owner.

I'm hoping this thread might help people in keeper leagues looking to get a jump on the '08 season during the '07 draft. Basically, I'd like to get a list of some running backs who, while they might not do too much this year, could have great potential next year. I'm thinking of guys that will be free agents or maybe there's a rookie that is pushing them out but given a chance on another team they could be gold. Or maybe someone trying to come back from injury? Whatever. The point being that they would be a lower round draft choice this year, but they'd reap huge rewards in a keeper league. Someone that jumps to mind from last year is Travis Henry. No one thought much of him (10th round pick in my league, I think) and he blows up, signs with Denver and now he's a 1st/2nd round pick in re-drafts. Looking for those type of "high-upside, low-risk" type guys. Obviously one guy is Michael Turner. He also has the advantage of probably putting up some decent numbers should anything happen to LDT. But next year, wherever he ends up, he should be a starter and if you can get him in the 9th round and keep him at that price? That's huge. So who else do we target late in the draft then horde away until next summer?

Nice call FBIGUY. I posted the following earlier this week, but it didn't get much of a response: "when playing the Lions, a team's #2 receiver has the big day. Reason being, Dre Bly shuts down the #1, but since the rest of the defense is atrocious, everything just goes to the #2. Checked the stats, and they definitely seem to back this up." I just wasn't sure if Lelie was truly the #2. And while I'm worried about Crumpler, my other option is Jerry Porter. I'm going with Lelie. Let's hope the theory holds true for this week.

Precisely. Over the past three weeks, the D is averaging 13 points allowed, 5 sacks and 2 turnovers per game. Grossman is going to get a great look at the New Jersey sky on a crisp autumn night.

I think it's clearly a matchup of the NFC's best two teams. I'm a little worried about how Eli will handle the Bears D, but they can be had, especially on the road. I think the Giants D is going to expose Grossman...again. They're playing insanely well right now, despite missing 3 starters. Should be a great game, and I think the Giants take it.