Dion Lewis

[cousinal111 57]

I have until August 1 to decide to keep him or not. It's a ppr league & he was a stud before injury last year. Anyone with any insight on recovery & thoughts on rolling the dice with him?

 

He's obviously someone all Owners will be keeping a close eye on.

[Flgatorguy87 160]

What's the price to keep him?

[Showboat 143]

He's never been reliable in terms health plus you'll have to deal the whims of Belichick. That's quite a bit of risk in my mind - rolling the dice as you said.....

[Flgatorguy87 160]

He was phenomenal in PPR last year on a per game basis. I see nobody taking that roll from him if he's healthy. If it's a cheap keep, and I'm not sure how it wouldn't be, then it's a no brainer to me.

 

Anybody can get hurt, and it's something to factor when spending a high pick....but again if he is cheap you have the perfect scenario to keep him. It's not really a roll of the dice if you aren't gambling much.

[Frozenbeernuts 1,652]

If you have anyone else anywhere near the same value then I would keep them. The risk is not worth a keeper slot imo. But that's going on the lack of info we really need to make an accurate opinion.

[cousinal111 57]

Our keeper system is different, he is one of four non lotteries I can keep...all at the same price. The 4 I'm choosing between are Dion, Lat murray, Rawls, Kelce, Eifert, John Brown, Diggs.

 

It's PPR & I will already have either Dez or AJ Green as my lottery keeper.

[IGotWorms 3,297]

He'll get hurt.

 

Before he gets hurt he might be less effective last year because the Pats will probably have him on a snap count to keep him from getting hurt. Hell there's probably a chance he starts the year on the PUP?

 

Anywho if you have better options I would go with them. If not then keep Lewis but don't rely on him - treat him as a bonus and you'll be okay.

[Flgatorguy87 160]

So it's really pick 4 of 7 in PPR. I wouldn't pick him in the top 7 of those names.

[cousinal111 57]

So it's really pick 4 of 7 in PPR. I wouldn't pick him in the top 7 of those names.

Interesting, I've seen him as high as 15 at RB ppr and no lower than 20. In my mind his risk matches Rawls & Eifert. You can see why my team faded down the stretch last year. Also had Romo which killed Dez & Steve Smith.

[weepaws 2,451]

Our keeper system is different, he is one of four non lotteries I can keep...all at the same price. The 4 I'm choosing between are Dion, Lat murray, Rawls, Kelce, Eifert, John Brown, Diggs.

It's PPR & I will already have either Dez or AJ Green as my lottery keeper.

Green

 

Lewis

Rawls

Murray

Brown

 

Heck with te . You can pick pick them up again later .

[stonewall 647]

32 catches for 350/2 (11 ypr), as well as 45 carries for 220/2 (4.9 ypc) in the 6 full games he played in.

 

Yes, please.

[robb 71]

Green

 

Lewis

Rawls

Murray

Brown

 

Heck with te . You can pick pick them up again later .

 

I would do this with the exception of Diggs over Brown. Diggs is the #1 WR for the Vikings while Brown is one of 3 WRs for Arizona..... and I have no idea which one will excel in 2016.

[weepaws 2,451]

You have a good point about Diggs being the number one guy .

 

But I'm not to sure that Tredwell is not overall a better player .

 

And when I value Brown I value him as a number two on a team that has a stronger passing game with a much better Qb in Palmer .

 

Reason why I value Brown as a two, is due to the injury problems that he and Floyd both seem to go through every season .

 

But I do see you point and it's a good one thank you .

[Super Cubs 132]

I currently have Lewis and Kelvin Benjamin both penciled in for my 6th keeper spot. Currently leaning towards Lewis. Assuming I can get Benjamin with a pick. We declare keepers mid August so hopefully I'll have a little more info by then.

[giraldi02 470]

His left knee has had two pretty bad injuries in his NFL career. I just don't believe he's going to return to form, and I feel he'll get over drafted by the resident Patriots fan in my main league.

 

Longevity is certainly a question, but the shiftiness and ability to cut are as well. His stop-start burst will likely be diminished. He's always been capable. His skill-set has never been a question.

 

But that leg has seen some damage. You gotta wonder if it is going to be the same. Unless he's a serious value (9th+ rd), I'm likely avoiding.

[the spanker 28]

His left knee has had two pretty bad injuries in his NFL career. I just don't believe he's going to return to form, and I feel he'll get over drafted by the resident Patriots fan in my main league.

 

Longevity is certainly a question, but the shiftiness and ability to cut are as well. His stop-start burst will likely be diminished. He's always been capable. His skill-set has never been a question.

 

But that leg has seen some damage. You gotta wonder if it is going to be the same. Unless he's a serious value (9th+ rd), I'm likely avoiding.

 

Your analysis of his injury history has lead me to the same conclusion. He won't be on any of my teams unless his ADP drops significantly. Same with Charles.

[weepaws 2,451]

Would think most see it the same way when it comes to Lewis and his ADP .

 

That's the one thing that makes ADP rankings risky , a lot of people take more shots in a mock when nothing is on the line and that will upset an ADP.

 

So I don't trust them do my own.

[thePRO 78]

I remember feeling this way about Shane Vereen after his breakout season. Looked great, so I drafted him in the 4th and it was my worst pick that year.

 

Absolute bust. Buyer beware.

[weepaws 2,451]

Any Patriots player not named Brady or Gronk is a risk .

[Super Cubs 132]

Would you be comfortable with Lewis as your 3rd RB?

[weepaws 2,451]

Not if there is a better option still on the draft board .

 

I'm not going to reach for him as a number three unless he is the best option left at rb at that time in a draft situation .

[thePRO 78]

I'd be somewhat comfortable with him as a 3rd. The risk is there and he's coming off an injury, but having owned him last year he did put up numbers in PPR.

 

I couldn't trust him as my top 2 tho, thanks to Bill Beli!

[Frozenbeernuts 1,652]

As RB 3 the risk isn't a big deal if we don't take into account where he was drafted. Pretty much any rb3 you have is going to carry a decent amount of risk.

[cousinal111 57]

Any Patriots player not named Brady or Gronk is a risk .

Julian Edelman says hello.

[weepaws 2,451]

Julian Edelman says hello.

See I disagree and have done so in the past when it comes to Edeleman .

 

After Brady and Gronk it's a big risk from week to week IMO .

[Kent 228]

 

Your analysis of his injury history has lead me to the same conclusion. He won't be on any of my teams unless his ADP drops significantly. Same with Charles.

Charles is kind of a freak though. He's bounced back quickly from blown knees and not lost a step. He will fall in the draft this year and I'll be ready.

 

Lewis on the other hand, I'm going to avoid. Charles is the undisputed guy. Lewis deals with the whims and offensive scheming of Belichek. Too much risk.

[stonewall 647]

Charles is the undisputed guy.

 

 

Love Charles.....but not sure that is true anymore.

[SpenceToons 70]

As far as the Belichick-usage question is concerned, here are a few factors to consider that might be in Lewis' favor:

 

NE plays ARI, SEA and DEN this year which project to be more Lewis-friendly games than Blount-friendly.

 

Speaking of Blount, while Lewis did some cutting in June practices, Blount suffered a hip injury late last year and hasn't practiced at all this Spring.

 

Edelman played in only 9 games last year. If he misses time in 2016, that might mean more need for and more targets for Lewis.

 

Substitute quarterbacks are known to like safety valves and there's the possibility Garoppolo starts four games this year.

[weepaws 2,451]

M Bennet could be a good safety valve for the young Garoppolo.

[IGotWorms 3,297]

As far as the Belichick-usage question is concerned, here are a few factors to consider that might be in Lewis' favor:

 

NE plays ARI, SEA and DEN this year which project to be more Lewis-friendly games than Blount-friendly.

 

Speaking of Blount, while Lewis did some cutting in June practices, Blount suffered a hip injury late last year and hasn't practiced at all this Spring.

 

Edelman played in only 9 games last year. If he misses time in 2016, that might mean more need for and more targets for Lewis.

 

Substitute quarterbacks are known to like safety valves and there's the possibility Garoppolo starts four games this year.

 

All good points, but the problem is if Lewis' usage is high he is guaranteed to get injured. Will probably get injured regardless, but still: the Pats are going to hold his usage down if at all possible, because they want him to make it to the post-season.

[SpenceToons 70]

 

... the Pats are going to hold his usage down if at all possible, because they want him to make it to the post-season.

 

It would be a new way for Belichick to be a thorn in our sides. Preserve an otherwise preferred back for the post-season when it will do fantasy owners no good.

[Kent 228]

 

Love Charles.....but not sure that is true anymore.

They cut Knile Davis. Charkandrick isn't Charles.

[Frozenbeernuts 1,652]

They cut Knile Davis. Charkandrick isn't Charles.

I think Davis is still on the team as of now.

[weepaws 2,451]

Based on their roster he is still on the team .

[Ace08 11]

Dion's ADP in 12 team PPR leagues right now is at the end of the 3rd or beginning of the 4th. If you go WR early he's a guy you're going to have to be willing to roll with as your #1 or #2 RB if you want him on your team this year.

 

I'll say this. The Patriots throw a ton and specifically they throw a ton short. If you take Dion in the 3rd/4th and simply make sure you take the cheap handcuff in James White much later in your draft...you're guaranteed NE's pass catching back all year long. Blount can't catch and isn't involved at all in the passing game so this situation is actually pretty clear cut this year.

 

I have zero issue with this strategy and will probably employ it this year in at least a few leagues.

[weepaws 2,451]

Do you think it's at all possible that Donald Brown might take some work away from J White ?

[Frozenbeernuts 1,652]

Dion's ADP in 12 team PPR leagues right now is at the end of the 3rd or beginning of the 4th. If you go WR early he's a guy you're going to have to be willing to roll with as your #1 or #2 RB if you want him on your team this year.

 

I'll say this. The Patriots throw a ton and specifically they throw a ton short. If you take Dion in the 3rd/4th and simply make sure you take the cheap handcuff in James White much later in your draft...you're guaranteed NE's pass catching back all year long. Blount can't catch and isn't involved at all in the passing game so this situation is actually pretty clear cut this year.

 

I have zero issue with this strategy and will probably employ it this year in at least a few leagues.

I don't think it's that simple. I don't see the Pats just going with the same two guys as last year. They have added a lot of smaller guys who could be competition for that role. I doubt that Dion + White is a lock like you believe.

[Kent 228]

I think Davis is still on the team as of now.

As a special teamer maybe. Weird he went from stud handcuff to useless after Charles went down. What did he do to earn that.

[Frozenbeernuts 1,652]

As a special teamer maybe. Weird he went from stud handcuff to useless after Charles went down. What did he do to earn that.

He just is one of those guys who either doesn't have the heart, brains, or both to play up to his potential in this league. The guy is a freak athletically.

[Ace08 11]

I don't think it's that simple. I don't see the Pats just going with the same two guys as last year. They have added a lot of smaller guys who could be competition for that role. I doubt that Dion + White is a lock like you believe.

 

White has experience and played the role down the stretch last year.

 

To each their own, but as I stated earlier I think if you take Lewis and White you're in good shape.