UPDATED (South): First Quarter Projections - Doug Orth

[Mike FF Today 607]

We'll use this thread to host links for Doug's pre-season projections & commentary on each team. He'll do three more of these projection pieces leading up to the Big Boards. Up first is the AFC & NFC East...

 

First Quarter Projections - AFC / NFC East - 7/19

First Quarter Projections - AFC/ NFC North - 7/26

First Quarter Projections - AFC/NFC South - 8/2

First Quarter Projections - AFC/NFC West - 8/9

[Frozenbeernuts 1,652]

Now we know the season is getting close.

 

6 days until the first training camp starts

[cousinal111 57]

Appreciate it, less than 2 months from Week 1.

[-Vyse- 65]

This is awesome!

[We Tigers 71]

I've had literally zero time to talk or think fantasy so far this year...but as soon as I saw this pop up, I knew it was time to make time. Welcome back, Preseason Matchup Analysis!

[The Football Guru 210]

I've had literally zero time to talk or think fantasy so far this year...but as soon as I saw this pop up, I knew it was time to make time. Welcome back, Preseason Matchup Analysis!

 

That's the kind of spirit we need around here

[Mike FF Today 607]

Added the North today.

 

Aside from the projections, the team overviews are .

[cousinal111 57]

Nice work as always...interesting White projected more PPR points than Alshon.

[The Football Guru 210]

Nice work as always...interesting White projected more PPR points than Alshon.

Thanks.

 

White's quarter total being a bit higher than Jeffery's is really more of a function of giving him a third touchdown as opposed to Jeffery and the likelihood Jeffery receives more attention from defenses early in the season. I have both pegged for 37 targets (yes, I'm including that into my projections this year as well).

[Mike FF Today 607]

AFC and NFC South posted today.

 

More fuel for Lamar Miller because I'm on board! ...

 

Houston and Chicago led the league with 424 carries from the running back position last season, while Miami ranked last with 290. Dolphins' running backs combined for fewer than 20 rush attempts 10 times last year, while Texans' running backs carried the ball at least 20 times in all but two games (and went over 30 six times!). Houston ran even though it wasn't particularly successful (team 3.7 YPC was tied for third-worst in the league) and continued to do so even without Arian Foster. Miller averaged 10.6 carries throughout his four-year career in South Beach and topped out at 12.1 in 2015 en route to a top-five finish in PPR leagues. One final nugget: Miller, who hasn't missed a start in three years, had six fewer carries and one more touch overall than DeAngelo Williams, who started only 10 games and saw a total of 22 carries and five receptions in his six non-starts. Can you see where this is going? There are a ton of these kind of stats, all of which point to his lack of use in Miami and the huge workload he is set up for in Houston. I have him projected for 18 carries and 21.5 total touches per game through the first quarter of the season - a workload I expect him to maintain throughout the season. Assuming he can navigate the first seven weeks, he could easily post fantasy MVP numbers the rest of the way. Cincinnati (Week 16) poses the biggest second-half threat to Miller against the run, but the Bengals' lack of athleticism at linebacker (which was exposed last year as backs caught 102 passes against them) will most likely allow the former Dolphin to have a big day in the passing game.

[Mike FF Today 607]

Posted the West today...

 

David Johnson outlook...

 

Now we arrive at the team that wants everyone to think it has a committee situation when it probably really doesn't. Let's think about this rationally. Despite managing only 54 offensive touches through 11 games last season, David Johnson scored seven touchdowns. Over that same time, Chris Johnson totaled three touchdowns on 202 touches. Obviously, touchdowns per touch doesn't singlehandedly make one player automatically better than another, but I think it begin to show how much more playmaking ability the younger Johnson has. HC Bruce Arians has virtually no track record of splitting carries between backs (most of his resume speaks to giving one back about two-thirds of the carries while giving the second back just less than a third) and one could easily question whether or not Arians has had a back who could do it all like David Johnson. Yes, Chris Johnson will be involved and I think he will have standalone value in about 5-6 games, but only because Arizona is going to hold a two-or three-score lead in the fourth quarter of some of their games, making it rather pointless to open the second-year back up to more punishment when Chris Johnson - a player OC Harold Goodwin suggests is "even" with David as a runner - could finish out the game. I have David Johnson projected to receive about 65 percent of the backfield touches and can't imagine him handling less than 60 percent. Even with his aforementioned playmaking ability, David Johnson is going to need all those touches to play like a top-five back against a schedule that could have as many as four reds if he were an average back (good luck getting him to perform like a RB1 against the Jets, Seahawks and Panthers, respectively, in the weeks leading up to the bye). Assuming Arians does a good job of monitoring his touches prior to Week 9, the second-year back could perform like a fantasy MVP over the second half of the season. The one downside: no owner wants their players in Seattle in Week 16.

[$epphori$ 118]

Thanks for the write-ups on my 2 RB keepers

[cousinal111 57]

Thanks, hope you're right about John Brown!