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Instant Fantasy Analysis - RB Ezekiel Elliott, Cowboys

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Fantasy owners' dreams have come true: One of the better running back prospects to come out in the last 10 years will have the opportunity to run behind arguably the best offensive line in the league. Perhaps Ohio State HC Urban Meyer described Elliott the best when he called him "the best player without the ball that I've ever coached", so he isn't going to get pulled in passing-down situations like most young backs. Elliott is a big-play runner that is built to be a feature back and that is almost certainly what he will become the moment he hits the field in Dallas. Elliott is the rare rookie runner that should be considered in the middle to late part of the first round in redraft leagues, and he should be the first player off the board in just about every keeper/dynasty league.

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I am guessing DMC is now on the trading block. Miami anyone?

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Elliott went where I thought he'd go. You just had to figure that Jerruh saw the next Emmitt in Zeke.

 

He's a true three-down back, strong and explosive. Odds on favorite for ROY now, and probably a 2nd round pick in 12-team drafts.

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I am guessing DMC is now on the trading block. Miami anyone?

DMC's contract is VERY cap friendly, and he's very serviceable still. Dunbar is not coming back till October at the earliest prolly - no reason not to keep McFadden and 3 rbs on board.

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DMC's contract is VERY cap friendly, and he's very serviceable still. Dunbar is not coming back till October at the earliest prolly - no reason not to keep McFadden and 3 rbs on board.

I'm thinking with Zeke the most expendable is Dunbar. Can he return punts lol?

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I'm thinking with Zeke the most expendable is Dunbar. Can he return punts lol?

 

 

a healthy dunbar is a space player who creates serious matchup problems with short area quickness. IOW, he brings something unique to the offense. this would render DMC the odd man out, especially given his miniscule dead money number if released. dunbar is also a kick returner (though not punts IIRC)

 

what it will come down to is the last week of preseason. if dunbar's knee is good to go, DMC likely gets cut. if not, then dunbar is gone.

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They well easy Zeke in. Unless he blows the f up.

 

Guess they have to be win now mode. If he is the best option, i guess he get the reps.

 

Really though. He has to get through 3 proven vets for those reps. Now none of them are super special, but Morris and McFadden have had very productive years.

 

Romo and this team have a small window here.

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They well easy Zeke in. Unless he blows the f up.

 

Guess they have to be win now mode. If he is the best option, i guess he get the reps.

 

Really though. He has to get through 3 proven vets for those reps. Now none of them are super special, but Morris and McFadden have had very productive years.

 

Romo and this team have a small window here.

Morris is proven to be an OK running back with very limited receiving ability. Mcfadden has proven to be as injury prone of a player as anyone. Who is the third proven option? Dunbar? That guy is a small back who is not designed to take many carries. He is a dump off guy to help bail out the qb.

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One of the worst defenses in the league, draft a RB.. JERRY JERRY JERRY!

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One of the worst defenses in the league, draft a RB.. JERRY JERRY JERRY!

Ball control! Keep the defense on the sideline and Romo upright!

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One of the worst defenses in the league, draft a RB.. JERRY JERRY JERRY!

Tom and Bill did excellent with their first round pick this year!

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a healthy dunbar is a space player who creates serious matchup problems with short area quickness. IOW, he brings something unique to the offense. this would render DMC the odd man out, especially given his miniscule dead money number if released. dunbar is also a kick returner (though not punts IIRC)

 

what it will come down to is the last week of preseason. if dunbar's knee is good to go, DMC likely gets cut. if not, then dunbar is gone.

Dunbar is quicker than Zeke? I'm seeing an Emmitt role for him, with the other backs scrambling for a series here and there. Pulling Elliott for Dunbar will hurt them, no matter the role envisioned for Dunbar.

 

It'll be like Murray, where they'll want to spell Elliott more but can't afford to. Both for reasons of pass blocking and explosive play potential.

 

I love this pick for Dallas.

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Really though. He has to get through 3 proven vets for those reps. Now none of them are super special, but Morris and McFadden have had very productive years.

I really don't understand the confusion.. Dallas did not make this leap of faith and shove all in for a guy that has to compete for reps - that's ridiculous. Zeke is the guy - the others are filler.

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Ball control! Keep the defense on the sideline and Romo upright!

It would be nice, for once, for us to address the actual problem (the defense) opposed to these reach'around, circumvent, passive ways of helping the defense. I understand the philosophy of more offense helps your defense - but more directly, addressing your defense helps your defense more.

 

In the end, it came down to Zeke being a far superior, better all around football player at his position - than anybody else left on the defensive board, including Ramsey. According to reports, Zeke was1A and Ramsey was 1B on our board... So in that sense I guess I can't be too upset.... In fact, the way this draft has shaken out - we have a chance still to grab 1 of several really good, impactful defensive players at 34 coming up... Robinson and Ragland out of Bama are still there, as well as Noah Spence. If we can grab one of them, along with Zeke - I will definitely feel more at ease and happy with how its gone.

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Ball control! Keep the defense on the sideline and Romo upright!

:lol:

 

One of dumbest things they spew on ESPN

 

Why would you ever repeat what you hear on those ridiculous shows?

 

 

yeah because the other team never gets the ball :wacko:

 

what if the other team has a good running back and wants ball control? may as well just stay home.

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:lol:

 

One of dumbest things they spew on ESPN

 

Why would you ever repeat what you hear on those ridiculous shows?

 

 

yeah because the other team never gets the ball :wacko:

 

what if the other team has a good running back and wants ball control? may as well just stay home.

But that was the exact formula they used with Murray two years ago. :dunno:

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But that was the exact formula they used with Murray two years ago. :dunno:

And how'd that work out for us? ..... Everyone keeps talking of taking a super back to replicate what Murray did, bcoz it kept the other offense off the field. That took 392 carries and near 1900 yards on the ground to accomplish that - all total, near 450 touches including pass catches... You really think and expect a back to come in here, repeat that and have it all be the same - really? You have extreme rose colored glasses if that's the case. Not only that - you are going to kill your rb in the process. After 2 or 3 years - this guy will be jelly.

 

The best way to stop the other offense is with a defense - getting them off the field on 3rd down is best way to do it. It's what most of the SB winners over the past several years have done, and it works.

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Any chance this guy is being overhyped? He is a rookie do he might take a bit to "get it" or maybe he hits the rookie wall

 

(Talking redraft leagues, obviously)

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And how'd that work out for us? ..... Everyone keeps talking of taking a super back to replicate what Murray did, bcoz it kept the other offense off the field. That took 392 carries and near 1900 yards on the ground to accomplish that - all total, near 450 touches including pass catches... You really think and expect a back to come in here, repeat that and have it all be the same - really? You have extreme rose colored glasses if that's the case. Not only that - you are going to kill your rb in the process. After 2 or 3 years - this guy will be jelly.

 

The best way to stop the other offense is with a defense - getting them off the field on 3rd down is best way to do it. It's what most of the SB winners over the past several years have done, and it works.

I'm no Dallas fan and don't have a good feel for them as a team, but I get the impression that they are in a win now mode. No other team picking in the top 10 is thinking the same way. Now I agree with you that you build a good defense and win games. But is Dallas constructed to do that? Maybe Ramsey was the right pick, but was he gonna make that a top tier defense? Are they gonna build a dominant defense through the draft this year? Takes a couple years to do that and can Dallas afford to waste Romo and Dez while they're doing it?

 

You're right about the workload on Murray. And I don't think they do that with Zeke....it'd be really dumb to do that to a rookie. But could they divvy that load up between Zeke and Alf? Dunno....but it was how they won games two years ago, and that was pretty much the only year they've been good the past decade. So maybe that's the route they wanna go again. If so, then pointing that out isn't parroting some stupid analysis from ESPN.....which was my main point.

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There is NO question, that Dallas needs help on D.

 

I like the draft pick in terms of future.

 

but if the team really wanted to win today, they would have drafted a Defensive player.

 

The run Game with DMC was actually pretty good. and while I didnt watch a ton of Cowboys games, I'm certain that with Romo out of the lineup, he was(or should have been) running against a stacked box a lot of the time.

 

sure, the Run game will improve a bit, but the level of improvement isnt as large as the level of improvement if they drafted someone on D.

 

They could have grabbed Jalen Ramsey at Corner.

 

if they took Ramsey, it's now looking like Jack could be picked up here early in the 2nd round. Health risks or not.... hes a top talent.

Then because the Depth at DT is unbelieveable in this draft and they may be able to get someone for the line early in round 3.

 

This scenario gives 2 and possibly 3 difference makers that would change this Defense.

 

then with the offense currently in place, I think this team makes the playoffs next season in this scenario.

 

So my belief is that this is not a win today move. This is a setting the team up for the future move.

 

Just my opinion.

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Dunbar is quicker than Zeke? I'm seeing an Emmitt role for him, with the other backs scrambling for a series here and there. Pulling Elliott for Dunbar will hurt them, no matter the role envisioned for Dunbar.

 

It'll be like Murray, where they'll want to spell Elliott more but can't afford to. Both for reasons of pass blocking and explosive play potential.

 

I love this pick for Dallas.

 

 

yes. in terms of measurables, their 40 times are similar, but dunbar is faster into the short splits. from what i found, dunbar's short shuttle is better, but i couldn't find a 3-cone for zeke to compare. the main thing is that zeke is just a larger guy, and very few people in the league can compare to dunbar's change-of-direction. he has welker/sproles scat. before he went down last season, he was just uncoverable. LBs couldn't man him up, and his ability in space made him very effective against zone. long story short, he's exactly the kind of matchup nightmare that DMC and morris can't provide.

 

i'm seeing more of a lynch role for elliott than an emmitt/murray role, at least through his rookie season. i think they'll want to keep him down below 300 touches in the regular season, so that he has something left in the tank for postseason. fortunately, the rest of the RB room is competent, which makes this a viable strategy.

 

i would have preferred defense here. if there had been an impact DE available, there's no question DAL would have gone in that direction. a CB/S tweener changes the equation somewhat, but i still would have taken ramsey. that said, it's time to move on, and elliott is one of the 2 truly elite prospects in this class.

 

but IMO rounds 2-3 MUST be defense. after this pick, i don't want to see a QB until 4 or later.

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but if the team really wanted to win today, they would have drafted a Defensive player.

 

 

it would need to be the right defensive player. as has been empirically shown numerous times, drafting a DLman would probably not win today--rookie DLmen seldom make an immediate impact because they're neither physically nor mentally ready. guys like aaron donald are the exception, not the rule. bosa was the closest, but he was off the board (and lacks elite pass rushing ability anyway). name the last rookie safety that elevated a bad defense into a good one. name the last rookie corner that elevated a defense from middle of the pack to the top of the pack. can you think of any?

 

a lot of you guys have it exactly backwards. drafting defense in the 1st would not be a 'win now' move--it would be building for the future. right about the time that the young pup is finally ready to contribute, romo will be retiring. doesn't it make more sense to invest your biggest draft capital on a guy who is almost assured to be contributing at a high level in week 1 of this season? isn't that more of a 'win now' move than guys who will probably only be 'difference makers' in 2018??

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Now I agree with you that you build a good defense and win games. But is Dallas constructed to do that? Maybe Ramsey was the right pick, but was he gonna make that a top tier defense? Are they gonna build a dominant defense through the draft this year? Takes a couple years to do that and can Dallas afford to waste Romo and Dez while they're doing it?

 

You're right about the workload on Murray. And I don't think they do that with Zeke....it'd be really dumb to do that to a rookie. But could they divvy that load up between Zeke and Alf? Dunno....but it was how they won games two years ago, and that was pretty much the only year they've been good the past decade. So maybe that's the route they wanna go again. If so, then pointing that out isn't parroting some stupid analysis from ESPN.....which was my main point.

Undisputed, absolute fact - in today's game you win in the post season with dominant defense 1st, super star qb 2nd and down the list - running game. Don't believe me? Just look at the past 10 SB winners. Like I said - nobody even remembers who the starting RBs were for the Broncs last year or the Pats the year before. Even with Seattle's recent dominance - it was bcoz of the defense, that's what everybody talked about. Beastmode was nice and def feared - but nothing like the defense.

 

And you are exactly right, this team is not constructed to win thru defense. In fact this team seems to think (STILL) that enough offense will compensate for shortcomings on the other side of the ball. Our best defensive player is a part-time, always injured, chronic concussion suffering house of cards (S. Lee). Outside of that who is our playmaker? Outside of that, who scares people? Nobody - that's who... Our starting DEs are on drug suspension, our ML is a mental head case who can't seem to stay healthy himself, our other LB is a non playmaking nobody, our corners have yet to discover what a pick is and our safeties might as well be called Crosswalk guards - bcoz that's all they do is watch the other team's guy cross the goal line... Last year we ranked 25th in sacks, and that's with Hardy. The teams below us were: MIA, NO, CLE, SF, NYG, BUF and ATL. Guess what, they all sucked too.

 

We exhausted our very best asset (the 4th pick) at an issue that is arguably not really even a problem. With no Romo and no Dez, aged DMC still managed to rush for the 4th most in the league last year. With spares under center and crap outside, we still managed the 9th best rushing game in the league last year... We should of dealt that pick (teams called) and loaded up on an extra 2nd or 3rd - and still taken Lawson or a similar player. We still could of taken a rb later down the draft.

 

But hey, we are damn sure back in the running for having the league's leading rusher again - whoo hoo! Prolly already started parade planning.

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Ramsey looks like a rare, special player. But Elliot isn't chump change. I think the Chargers are the ones who messed up.

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:lol:

 

One of dumbest things they spew on ESPN

 

Why would you ever repeat what you hear on those ridiculous shows?

 

 

yeah because the other team never gets the ball :wacko:

 

what if the other team has a good running back and wants ball control? may as well just stay home.

Remember when Demarco went nuts? They said that Dallas D was supposed to be historically bad that year. What did they finish? 12-4?

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Ramsey looks like a rare, special player. But Elliot isn't chump change. I think the Chargers are the ones who messed up.

 

 

QFT. this is getting overlooked.

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Remember when Demarco went nuts? They said that Dallas D was supposed to be historically bad that year. What did they finish? 12-4?

I dont think there is any question that a better run game and a better offense does help the Defense.

 

its more of an indirect thing.

 

if the offense can stay on the field for one extra set of downs each and every possession, your defense could be on the field for 20-30 fewer plays and you are going to have less breakdowns due to fatigue late in games. You can take that to the bank.

 

Look at the Colts the year Manning got hurt. The defence wasnt that bad the year prior, but when Manning got hurt, the defense (statistically at least) went in the toilet. But the Defense was on the field for an extra 10-15 minutes per game when Manning was out of the lineup. That makes a huge difference.

 

but if the defense is soft the Better offense is not gonna make a whole lot of difference in the end.

 

As for Dallas, to some degree, that defense did look worse than it actually is because of the Romo injuries. That offense was really quite anemic without him. A season where Romo stays healthy probably turns this defense into a Middling defense. That's my call.

 

whether Romo can stay healthy is another completely different issue. But if he keeps his health, the D will be better.

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Look at the Colts the year Manning got hurt. The defence wasnt that bad the year prior, but when Manning got hurt, the defense (statistically at least) went in the toilet. But the Defense was on the field for an extra 10-15 minutes per game when Manning was out of the lineup. That makes a huge difference.

 

 

I agree. If you can score it forces the other team to keep up which ends up making them 1-dimensional. I always thought the Manning era Colts built their entire team around that philosophy. Invest heavily on offense and pass rushers. Ignore linebacker and run defense because you're going to turn every game into a shootout. Then when Peyton went down, they can't score, and the defense that was specifically designed to play with a lead gets exposed.

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I agree. If you can score it forces the other team to keep up which ends up making them 1-dimensional. I always thought the Manning era Colts built their entire team around that philosophy. Invest heavily on offense and pass rushers. Ignore linebacker and run defense because you're going to turn every game into a shootout. Then when Peyton went down, they can't score, and the defense that was specifically designed to play with a lead gets exposed.

Bottom line - you need balance. And bcoz of the cap, nobody can really have it all... But our defense is incredibly inept and devoid of playmakers. We literally don't do anything well - period. We don't rush the passer, we're terrible. against the run, we don't force turnovers - we don't force 3rd down stops... The "bend but don't break" only gets you so far when all you're doing is breaking.

 

I always like to use this as an example... Name defensive starters we have today that (1) other teams would want and (2) that we're better at than the opposing team's we're playing... You might get S. Lee (huge risk), Scandrick maybe, B. Jones and that's about it - maybe T. Crawford but now he's getting paid.... We need difference makers, we need play makers and we need more than just a bunch of guys who are half ass decent.

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Any chance this guy is being overhyped? He is a rookie do he might take a bit to "get it" or maybe he hits the rookie wall

 

(Talking redraft leagues, obviously)

Hes not Melvin Gordon bad if thats what youre asking.

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Hes not Melvin Gordon bad if thats what youre asking.

 

yeah--there were a ton of questions about gordon, but elliott was pretty much universally recognized as a more complete back than gurley (though without the gamebreaking ability). excellent vision, great cuts, unusually polished in the passing game, and very physical at the point of contact.

 

i don't see him winning the rushing title or anything this season--they're going to want to shelter him from overwork. but a solid 1200 (plus receiving) seems very reasonable, and he will likely get the GL work.

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yeah--there were a ton of questions about gordon, but elliott was pretty much universally recognized as a more complete back than gurley (though without the gamebreaking ability). excellent vision, great cuts, unusually polished in the passing game, and very physical at the point of contact.

 

i don't see him winning the rushing title or anything this season--they're going to want to shelter him from overwork. but a solid 1200 (plus receiving) seems very reasonable, and he will likely get the GL work.

 

 

I think he could very easily win the rushing title. In our fantasy league rookies get special keeper rights, and he's going to go for huge money.

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I am converting one of my leagues from snake to auction. Its a keeper league. If i end up with the first nomination i am going to nominate Zeke hoping for a bidding war.

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He is going to be a top five rb in ppr leagues .

 

Agree he could win the Rushing title this season .

 

And don't even worry about Morris taking goal line work from him , it's not going to happen .

 

Right player right team good for fantasy .

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Oh, by the way:

 

Double E had a new RB-record Wonderlic score of 32. The average is 17. The next best for a RB was Steven Jackson way back when, with a 28.

 

Full package. Draft with confidence.

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I'm thinking with Zeke the most expendable is Dunbar. Can he return punts lol?

 

Nobody in Dallas seems to be able to return a punt. :wall:

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Oh, by the way:

 

Double E had a new RB-record Wonderlic score of 32. The average is 17. The next best for a RB was Steven Jackson way back when, with a 28.

 

Full package. Draft with confidence.

Wow this is actually pretty interesting. I may up his value a bit because of it. I think wonderlic scores have value. A rb doesnt need to be a genius by any means, but this can only help him. I dont have a shot at taking him in either dynasty so i am talking more redraft value.

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I don't get the "win now, ignore traditional draft value" pick of Zeke coupled with a 2nd round guy who might not play until 2017.

 

Ramsey at #4 and then Derrick Henry at #34 seems like a much better "win now" combination, given the huge bump we'd get at CB. Sure, Derrick Henry isn't in the same league as Zeke, but with our line I'm convinced that a pounder + our cheap veteran backups would still be a top tier running attack. Or take another RB in the third ... I think there are a bunch out there that would be just fine here :doh:

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