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The Postman

Biggest Bust of 2018?

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DeAndre Hopkins may end up being one of the biggest. Watson's play style may make his career pretty short, and Hopkins is going to be hurt if he goes down. I know Hopkins still had a great year last year without him, but I also put Savage above the backups the Texans currently have. Look at what happened two years ago when Hopkins dealt with bad qb play, he did not have the best season. Now he did also have a lot of targets last year and that should continue no matter who the QB is, but Brandon Weeden is the next guy up. Ouch. How are the Texans going into the season with Brandon Weeden as their QB?? Why wouldn't they trade for Teddy Bridgewater?? This is why I don't trust NFL teams, and I wonder why people just default to Well the experts like him so he must be good!! Even though the experts are wrong enough that if they were this wrong in another profession, they would have been fired long ago.

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JuJu Smith-Schuster

 

He'll put up some good games, but at his current ADP (41 Overall, WR16 in Standard Scoring) is BUST IMO>

 

Any Steelers WR not named AB shouldn't be ranked that high.

Why.

 

Couldnt possibly disagree more.

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Why.

 

Couldnt possibly disagree more.

 

History.

 

At least since 2010, according to FFToday Regular Season Rankings, no Steeler WR2 besides Juju has finished higher than WR24 in the League. That was in 2011 when Brown was WR2 behind Wallace and finished WR24 in both Standard and PPR.

 

Steeler WR2 Rankings by year:

 

2010 - Ward: WR39 Standard WR39 PPR

2011 - Brown: WR24 Standard WR24 PPR

2012 - Brown: WR37 Standard WR32 PPR

2013 - Cotchery WR30 Standard WR36 PPR, Sanders WR35 Standard WR32 PPR

2014 - Bryant WR43 Standard WR61 PPR

2015 - Bryant WR32 Standard WR39 PPR

2016 - Rogers WR63 Standard WR63 PPR

2017 - Juju WR15 Standard WR20 PPR

 

Last year was a great year for both AB and Juju

 

I'm not saying he doesn't have the ability to end up top 16 in 2018, I just think history will correct itself, unless Brown drops off or gets injured and same for Bell.

 

Why was Juju able to do in 2017 what other WR2 haven't in the past? Lack of skill in the WR group as a whole behind AB and Juju? I'm not entirely sure.

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History.

 

At least since 2010, according to FFToday Regular Season Rankings, no Steeler WR2 besides Juju has finished higher than WR24 in the League. That was in 2011 when Brown was WR2 behind Wallace and finished WR24 in both Standard and PPR.

 

Steeler WR2 Rankings by year:

 

2010 - Ward: WR39 Standard WR39 PPR

2011 - Brown: WR24 Standard WR24 PPR

2012 - Brown: WR37 Standard WR32 PPR

2013 - Cotchery WR30 Standard WR36 PPR, Sanders WR35 Standard WR32 PPR

2014 - Bryant WR43 Standard WR61 PPR

2015 - Bryant WR32 Standard WR39 PPR

2016 - Rogers WR63 Standard WR63 PPR

2017 - Juju WR15 Standard WR20 PPR

 

Last year was a great year for both AB and Juju

 

I'm not saying he doesn't have the ability to end up top 16 in 2018, I just think history will correct itself, unless Brown drops off or gets injured and same for Bell.

 

Why was Juju able to do in 2017 what other WR2 haven't in the past? Lack of skill in the WR group as a whole behind AB and Juju? I'm not entirely sure.

everything is unprecedented until it happens for the first time.....

 

jujus numbers from the last 8 games project to be around 88-1300-10tds.....now im not saying hes going to hit that....but he didnt really come out of the gate starting and being a reliable option...it progressed and their confidence in him grew......

 

like i said....the guy wasnt a day one starter and got better as the year went on...he put up the same numbers pretty much as diggs....yet people are going ga ga over diggs in the 3rd round or as a top 30 player......i know the new qb in minny brings a realm of excitement but he also has thielen, a running game and a pro bowl level TE also to contend with......

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Not at all, that was more in response to someone who said his touches will go up this year to offset any regression. Based on history and Ingram still being there I dont see it happening.

So Kamara maxed out his touches his rookie year? He will never be given the ball more?

 

Dont buy that one bit. He had 1 carry twice last year. They didnt even exactly know what they had until week 3 or 4.

 

If he stays healthy id bet good money he gets more than 201 total touches he got as a rookie. Even if it is 150-80 for 230.

 

Based on what? Bush a decade ago? Not much of a sample size to say "based on history".

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DeAndre Hopkins may end up being one of the biggest. Watson's play style may make his career pretty short, and Hopkins is going to be hurt if he goes down. I know Hopkins still had a great year last year without him, but I also put Savage above the backups the Texans currently have. Look at what happened two years ago when Hopkins dealt with bad qb play, he did not have the best season. Now he did also have a lot of targets last year and that should continue no matter who the QB is, but Brandon Weeden is the next guy up. Ouch. How are the Texans going into the season with Brandon Weeden as their QB?? Why wouldn't they trade for Teddy Bridgewater?? This is why I don't trust NFL teams, and I wonder why people just default to Well the experts like him so he must be good!! Even though the experts are wrong enough that if they were this wrong in another profession, they would have been fired long ago.

They should trade a 3rd round pick for a backup QB on a 1 year deal because Watson MIGHT get hurt?

 

Rodgers has had 2 season ending injuries. He MIGHT get hurt too. So I suppose every team should have gave 3rds for Bridgewater the backup QB with 14 TD potential.

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They should trade a 3rd round pick for a backup QB on a 1 year deal because Watson MIGHT get hurt?

 

Rodgers has had 2 season ending injuries. He MIGHT get hurt too. So I suppose every team should have gave 3rds for Bridgewater the backup QB with 14 TD potential.

Yep. Exactly. Always have a viable backup on the roster. The Eagles proved why last year. It may not be to take over for an entire season. Watson may just need to miss a few games. Any team like the Texans with playoff asperations should have a quality backup. Weird how you don't think having a quality backup could make a difference.

 

Why else did the Saints do it? Just in case their good team loses Brees.

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Doug Baldwin said he will not be playing 100% all year. He has had some knee issues the past few years. I was staying away from his draft price completely this year.

 

While he probably isn't THE biggest, I believe he will let down owners. His upside is capped, which I don't like drafting players who have a limited upside in the middle rounds if I can avoid it.

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So Kamara maxed out his touches his rookie year? He will never be given the ball more?

Dont buy that one bit. He had 1 carry twice last year. They didnt even exactly know what they had until week 3 or 4.

If he stays healthy id bet good money he gets more than 201 total touches he got as a rookie. Even if it is 150-80 for 230.

Based on what? Bush a decade ago? Not much of a sample size to say "based on history".

I think you are missing the point. The assertion was that any regression Kamara has in TD efficiency or ypc will be made up by his increase in touches this year. I’m not asserting he is going to be at 200 vs 230. I think that is a reasonable range and maybe slightly more with Ingram’s suspension. But that slight increase will not make up for a regression in his ypc or TDs per touch even if they only regress back to the levels of historically great players (ex LT, Faulk).

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Yep. Exactly. Always have a viable backup on the roster. The Eagles proved why last year. It may not be to take over for an entire season. Watson may just need to miss a few games. Any team like the Texans with playoff asperations should have a quality backup. Weird how you don't think having a quality backup could make a difference.

 

Why else did the Saints do it? Just in case their good team loses Brees.

Eagles proved it? Foles was never considered anything more than an okay backup. Caught lightening in a bottle and won it for them.

 

The fairytale that unfolded last year isnt a yearly reality. Foles wouldnt have gotten the Packers to the Playoffs last year.

 

You dont just trade 3rds each year to rent solid backups in case your QB goes down.

 

Not sure what the Saints are doing. If they win a SB Brees probably retires. Then Teddy would resign. Otherwise not sure.

 

I love the irony. So the Saints are **trading for a checkdown backup with 1 knee to cover their azz in case one of the most reliable QBs of the last decade goes down.

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Eagles proved it? Foles was never considered anything more than an okay backup. Caught lightening in a bottle and won it for them.

 

The fairytale that unfolded last year isnt a yearly reality. Foles wouldnt have gotten the Packers to the Playoffs last year.

 

You dont just trade 3rds each year to rent solid backups in case your QB goes down.

 

Not sure what the Saints are doing. If they win a SB Brees probably retires. Then Teddy would resign. Otherwise not sure.

 

I love the irony. So the Saints are **trading for a checkdown backup with 1 knee to cover their azz in case one of the most reliable QBs of the last decade goes down.

I think you would make a great addition to the Jet's front office.

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Kamara's TD rate last year was insane last year. I'm expecting his TD numbers to regress due to that.

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Could be Russell Wislon... probably 3-6th QB off of the board, but I don't see this offense getting any better... best case scenario is garbage time each week if their D craps the bed

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Fournette hands down. Dude has played less than a half, right? Djohns has gotten me over 16 points twice in ppr. Even non ppr he had 12 yesterday. Not terrible production.

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Fournette hands down. Dude has played less than a half, right? Djohns has gotten me over 16 points twice in ppr. Even non ppr he had 12 yesterday. Not terrible production.

Yea people are really discounting the not THAT terrible production he has gotten. Compare to Kenyan Drake?

 

I try not to downgrade guys outlook based on injury yet, but yea Fournette.

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Could be Russell Wislon... probably 3-6th QB off of the board, but I don't see this offense getting any better... best case scenario is garbage time each week if their D craps the bed

I remember Wilson became known as a second half of season hero, maybe he picks it up again this year.

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Almost every potential bust that you guys predicted in this forum is anything but.

 

Laughable

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Disagree

You disagree? You dont watch many packers games. Rodgers has been the team for a while now.

 

Foles is a backup QB.

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Dalvin is really pissing me off. Can’t get it together in two whole games after what was supposed to be minor.

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David Johnson

He definitely hasn't lived up to his expectations, but he is still top 20 in a PPR. I wouldn't call that being a bust this early in the year.

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Dalvin is really pissing me off. Can’t get it together in two whole games after what was supposed to be minor.

:thumbsup: I have this pos and Fournette. :mad:

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Kareem Hunt.. had about the quietest 2 TD game you can have. Hasn't done much otherwise. He usage in the passing game is frightening.

 

Once Mahomes realizes that this game really is difficult and stops throwing 5 TDs a game, Hunt's passing usage will tick upwards.

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Dalvin is really pissing me off. Can’t get it together in two whole games after what was supposed to be minor.

 

I kept Cook from last year along with Hunt. I'm lucky enough to have grabbed Connor and Thompson, so I'm rolling along, but I had already benched Cook this last week before he was listed as Out. I'll wait for them to get their run game together.

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I agree on Hunt and DJ. They have at least played all 3 games, and is a disappointment. Hard to call an injured player a bust, it happens though.

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I agree on Hunt and DJ. They have at least played all 3 games, and is a disappointment. Hard to call an injured player a bust, it happens though.

 

Hunt is RB13 in my .5ppr league. That's not what we'd like to see, but 'bust' seems inaccurate. DJ is RB17 same league. He was likely drafted higher, and is likely to do worse moving forward (based on offense quality), he's heading for 'bust' land.

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Hunt is tied for rb 20, DJ is rb 19 in our league. Ppr. There is still hope, but as of now, they are well below their adp

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DJ is a big bust. He may only be like 19th or 20th but he gets all the work. Half the league is in some sort of RBBC.

 

One of the worst offenses in the league if not the worst. Plus they play Rams in week 16.

 

His best bet is racking up a bunch of useless short catches from a rookie QB.

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DJ is a big bust. He may only be like 19th or 20th but he gets all the work. Half the league is in some sort of RBBC.

 

One of the worst offenses in the league if not the worst. Plus they play Rams in week 16.

 

His best bet is racking up a bunch of useless short catches from a rookie QB.

I'm trying to acquire him right now. The Rams in week 16 are what really worry me. My team looks good so far, so I have enough wiggle room to look at what looms that far ahead. I would not want to start him in non ppr.

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I'm trying to acquire him right now. The Rams in week 16 are what really worry me. My team looks good so far, so I have enough wiggle room to look at what looms that far ahead. I would not want to start him in non ppr.

 

Something to keep in mind is that the way the NFC is shaping up and the competitiveness of the other 3 divisions... and no competition in the West, the Rams might have not only the division wrapped up, but also a bye and the #1 seed at the conclusion of Week 15. The Rams might not be playing many starters in Week 16.

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Once Mahomes realizes that this game really is difficult and stops throwing 5 TDs a game, Hunt's passing usage will tick upwards.

this is laughable.

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