Follow Along Experts Mock Draft

[Mustard Lover 3]

Could have had Michael Turner as a RB3 in 5th round

[Mike MacGregor 20]

Here is my commentary for the Harvin pick:

 

Way back during our 3rd round pick we already had our 4th round target in mind - Percy Harvin. With about six picks to go I pre-drafted just Harvin, Marques Colston and Steve Smith. Smith went quickly, then Colston, and then nervousness set in seeing if Harvin made it to us, and thankfully he did. Once Minnesota figured out how to properly use this guy last year, he had a huge second half including scoring a TD in 5 of 6 straight games, a pair of 10 reception games, and a pair of 8 reception games. Let's not forget the rushing. He rushed 51 times last year, and 32 times in the second half. At 5 yards a pop that adds ~250 yards to his total plus a TD or two. We've got Harvin projected comfortably inside the top 10 WR, which is huge return for a 4th round pick.

 

I also added commentary for the Gates pick which is basically that prior post re-worded.

[420allstars 13]

Morning all.

 

I don't think any player really stood out as way ahead of the pack at his position at that point in the draft. Looking at the FF Today projections, we have Witten, Hernandez, Keller, Gonzo all projected higher (but similar) to Gates, along with a few guys slightly below Gates. At QB, Ryan, Eli, Rivers, Peyton are all pretty similar. At RB, Best, Helu, Greene, Redman all similar. At WR, Antonio Brown stands out the most at WR12, but just 7 points ahead of the next highest projected Santonio Holmes at WR17, and then Meachem, Decker are close.

 

This is completely opposite to our last two picks, where there were actually options at different positions where a player or two was head and shoulders above his peers. Gates might in fact be the most crowded on the cheatsheet as outlined above, but I prefer him here over the other guys because:

 

a. I don't really agree with him being projected lower than those other TE; his reception and TD potential is higher than Witten, Hernandez, etc., IMHO

 

b. I feel at the other positions I should be just as happy waiting for other lower ranked options to come back to me - happier than if I let Gates go and someone takes him. For example, Antonio Brown would be a nice add, but for my WR3 I feel I'd be just as happy with Decker, Torrey Smith, Reggie Wayne... even Denarius Moore.

 

c. personally, really like Gates as a potential true difference maker at his position

 

So you're right, from a pure numbers standpoint the value play was not Gates, according to the projections I'm using as a guide, but my own personal rankings/feelings about Gates pushed him as the top choice.

 

I totally respect that you went with "your guy" and to be honest I have a tendency to do that rather then stick to the lists.. more then anything I just wanted to make it clear that Gates was not the sure pick, there was loads of other options..

 

[420allstars 13]

Could have had Michael Turner as a RB3 in 5th round

 

crazy huh?

[Mike MacGregor 20]

Could have had Michael Turner as a RB3 in 5th round

 

Definitely could make a strong case for him there. I do like Turner this year as an undervalued play. A little less excited for PPR leagues of course, but still can't argue with the potential as long as he doesn't break down (biggest concern, IMO). I was very close to acquiring him in a dynasty league recently but the other owner and myself were just a little off on the draft pick swap part of the deal.

 

Third RB would be a luxury here though, and would still need to come back and acquire a starting TE, QB and WR3. Going to be pretty weak at one of those positions. Perhaps this goes back to the big decision back in the first round. Rather have:

 

[QB]-Lynch-Turner-Calvin-Green-Harvin-[TE]

 

or

 

[QB]-Mathews-Lynch-Green-Harvin-[WR]-Gates

 

?

 

That is a heck of a trio of WR in the first choice, but think I feel more comfortable with our current group, the second choice.

[Mike MacGregor 20]

Added Reggie Wayne at 6.09, Peyton Manning at 7.04. I'd like to wait and get opinions here before making the picks, but in the interest of keeping the draft going I had to just make the call.

 

Wayne makes a great late drafted WR3, the 30th WR off the board in this draft. He's got a rookie QB, but one that couldn't be more highly touted as a passer coming into the league. Targets should be plentiful for Wayne. Even with modest TD expectations, Wayne is going to make up a lot of points on receptions. Some extremely good WR options in the last half dozen off the board, such as Steve Johnson, Antonio Brown, Torrey Smith and Eric Decker.

 

Manning was the 10th QB off the board. I'll take a shot on him at that point. Matt Ryan was still on the board, the only available QB projected higher by FF Today than Peyton, but I'm luke warm on Ryan talent wise. He's got a pair of great receivers, but his prior two seasons of improved fantasy stats came on a ton of pass attempts, which I'm not sure is sustainable with their new OC. Peyton has health issues - maybe. We won't truly know until he hits the field again and we see him play. The Broncos have the faith though, and I'll show the same faith in this once in a generation talent.

[stonewall 647]

I was gonna strongly recommend Peyton Manning in the 7th, but I see you got it done. Nice value in the 7th, but you will want a quality #2 later with some upside like a Schaub, Cutler, RG111, Big Ben, Palmer, or Dalton.

 

8th round - If Hillis some how falls, gotta grab him. Tate and Malcolm Floyd are still hanging around also with great value.

[Mike MacGregor 20]

Thanks stonewall. Definitely a quality 3rd RB is the order of the day at this point. Witten has really fallen in this draft to the point he looks like great value now.

[stonewall 647]

Thanks stonewall. Definitely a quality 3rd RB is the order of the day at this point. Witten has really fallen in this draft to the point he looks like great value now.

 

Yeah, starting to look like one of Hillis, Tate, and D. Brown is gonna fall to you. I definitely like Hillis there with his pass-catching ability and nose for end zone. He is a steal in the late 8th.

 

But.....I gotta say again that M. Floyd is good value there too. I doubt he falls to the 9th, but he could be there......maybe Cutler too. Several ways to roll now, and although I didn't like Matthews at 1.04, you have been getting some serious value thus far.

[Mike MacGregor 20]

And we're back up. I've got stonewall's vote for Peyton Hillis. I'm really not as sure about Hillis as he is. Not even close in fact, as I haven't given his move to KC much thought that he was going to be very fantasy relevant at all. I'm going to update Draft Buddy for the last round of picks and look at my options.

[WhiteWonder 2,171]

ill check things out and weigh in

[WhiteWonder 2,171]

how do we feel about donald brown? After that I guess i like Hillis at RB. Really hard to guage. those thinking he will be the new Thomas Jones are forgetting Haley is out. If he does get as much work as people are thinking then he might be the pick here.

 

With Peyton as our QB 1, it might behoove us to grab a backup here. Cutler is likely the popular choice. I also like Freeman and Palmer.

 

WR can probably wait although I really like DHB in this spot.

 

Brown, Hillis and Cutler are probably the choices.

 

 

Food for thought: the 3 teams picking between us all have just 1 QB.

[Mike MacGregor 20]

RB did dry up fast. Peyton Hillis is the top available RB per FFC ADP, followed closely by Ben Tate, then Donald Brown, then Michael Bush and Stevan Ridley. Even a little later, and one RB I do like, is Ronnie Hillman.

 

At WR is goes Floyd, Blackmon, Boldin.

 

At TE, Tamme.

 

Too early for a second QB as none really stand out. Too early for a DEF or K, obviously.

 

In terms of my cheatsheets based on the FF Today projections, the following players stand out at each position:

 

RB Pierre Thomas RB24, Stevan Ridley RB30. KC homer Mike Krueger has Hillis at RB41, just a single fantasy point behind Hillman.

 

WR Santonio Holmes really stands out at WR17. Drops all the way to Heyward-Bey at WR28, then Michael Crabtree WR32, Boldin WR37.

 

TE Dustin Keller TE5, Tony Gonzalez TE6.

[Mike MacGregor 20]

Looked at the next three teams. I don't think any will go QB since they have Brees, Stafford, Rivers. At least 1 RB, 1 WR, 1 TE should go here - I expect CBS will take their starting TE in their next 2 picks - and likely the picks will be 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE.

 

We invested early in RB but let's bag Hillis here since available RB are pretty dried up. A bunch of these WR have similar upside. I know about the concerns with Peyton, but if we were so concerned to take his backup this soon after picking him, probably shouldn't have picked him. I agree on an earlier than we would otherwise backup our QB, but I would still guess we can wait past this and the next round and look to the 10th/11th for our backup QB.

[WhiteWonder 2,171]

RB did dry up fast. Peyton Hillis is the top available RB per FFC ADP, followed closely by Ben Tate, then Donald Brown, then Michael Bush and Stevan Ridley. Even a little later, and one RB I do like, is Ronnie Hillman.

 

At WR is goes Floyd, Blackmon, Boldin.

 

At TE, Tamme.

 

Too early for a second QB as none really stand out. Too early for a DEF or K, obviously.

 

In terms of my cheatsheets based on the FF Today projections, the following players stand out at each position:

 

RB Pierre Thomas RB24, Stevan Ridley RB30. KC homer Mike Krueger has Hillis at RB41, just a single fantasy point behind Hillman.

 

WR Santonio Holmes really stands out at WR17. Drops all the way to Heyward-Bey at WR28, then Michael Crabtree WR32, Boldin WR37.

 

TE Dustin Keller TE5, Tony Gonzalez TE6.

 

if no QB stands out then i think you have to take a RB.

 

WR is deep enough and you already have 3 good ones. maybe DHB or Holmes in 6 picks.

 

With Gates already on board I dont think you need to waste an 8th rounder on Keller or Gonzo. just back him up later with a Celek or Olsen type.

[Gepetto 979]

my rankings

 

WR

Michael Crabtree

Darrius Heyward-Bey

Santonio Holmes

Anquan Boldin

Mike Williams TB

Malcolm Floyd

Denarius Moore

Laurent Robinson

Pierre Garcon

 

RB

Stevan Ridley

Mark Ingram

Peyton Hillis

Donald Brown

Michael Bush

James Starks

[stonewall 647]

 

 

We invested early in RB but let's bag Hillis. I agree on an earlier than we would otherwise backup our QB, but I would still guess we can wait past this and the next round and look to the 10th/11th for our backup QB.

 

Great pick with Hillis....huge upside and a proven commodity.

 

Lotta good options in the 9th. Do you feel as though Floyd has some great upside with the departure of VJ?

 

As for waiting for your QB2, it sounds reasonable. Can probably grab Flynn pretty late.

[Mike MacGregor 20]

I don't think these other teams should be falling all over themselves for their 2nd QB. Everyone has one QB and two teams have a pair. It is hard to say, because some are approaching this draft as if they were mock drafting for a typical re-draft league, and some are putting more emphasis on a best-ball format. I'm trying to go more as if mocking a real league, and in that vein even waiting until the next pair of picks, I think we should be able to get a Flacco, Palmer, Fitzpatrick, Freeman level QB as our backup. We'll see.

 

On to this pick, now up in two. stonewall, I came around on Hillis, but I can't agree with you on Floyd. Just don't like the guy in terms of trusting him to stay healthy and do anything more consistently than the occasional circus catch, which he is quite good at. Even with the VJ departure I'm not expecting much if any bump in Floyd. I'm expecting a bump in Gates. I'm expecting better rushing numbers from the Chargers. I don't really believe in Meachem, either. I'm sort of expecting if a WR breaks out it will be Vincent Brown. Plus, we are already pretty invested in the Chargers, so passing on Floyd.

 

I'm going to pre-draft Heyward-Bey first, Santonio Holmes second. I'm very tempted by Hillman and to a lesser extent Donald Brown. Neither of those guys will make it back. But WR is more pressing now than RB. Especially in PPR we need a solid and deep WR corps. DHB I think is the prime pick. I'm not confident in Holmes, but I'll slot him in here second based on Krueger's recommendation with the relatively high projections for him. And I agree to an extent - someone needs to catch the ball for the Jets. At least some of the time.

 

If TE was included in the flex (as it should be - think this is just an error in the setup), then TE could easily be the play here. Celek, Gonzo or possibly Tamme. As it stands, DHB or Holmes will be our next addition.

[WhiteWonder 2,171]

i dont think you can go wrong with DHB here.

[GreenTD 56]

i dont think you can go wrong with DHB here.

 

Agreed. With him turning the corner in 2011 & a whole offseason to work with Palmer, DHB is great value at this juncture in the draft.

[stonewall 647]

Can't and won't quibble between Floyd. DHB, and Holmes.

 

DHB had 64/975/4 over a full season, Holmes had 51/654/8 over a full season, and Floyd had 43/856/5 over twelve games. Injuries are unpredictable (see AJ) but over 16 games Floyd has better #'s than Holmes and DHB, albeit with a few less receptions than DHB and a couple less TD's than Holmes.....and that was with VJ in town and Rivers having a career-worst season. However, I understand about not wanting too many Chargers on one team.

[WhiteWonder 2,171]

Can't and won't quibble between Floyd. DHB, and Holmes.

 

DHB had 64/975/4 over a full season, Holmes had 51/654/8 over a full season, and Floyd had 43/856/5 over twelve games. Injuries are unpredictable (see AJ) but over 16 games Floyd has better #'s than Holmes and DHB, albeit with a few less receptions than DHB and a couple less TD's than Holmes.....and that was with VJ in town and Rivers having a career-worst season. However, I understand about not wanting too many Chargers on one team.

 

DHB missed 1 game so his stats are not over a full season.

 

I just dont think Floyd is that talented and also for a player with his injury history, i dont see the merit in extrapolating his stats.

[vroompac 2]

So this is an "expert pick" group huh. Interesting.

[stonewall 647]

I just dont think Floyd is that talented and also for a player with his injury history, i dont see the merit in extrapolating his stats.

 

That's what we do.

[WhiteWonder 2,171]

That's what we do.

 

what who does?

 

we may project stats for a new season. i dont consider that to be the same as saying Player A had X amount of points for an injury plagued 12 game season, but if we pretend he was fully healthy he would have done Y amount of stats.

 

when projecting for 2012, based on Floyds injury history I would probably project him to miss at least 2 games anyway.

[stonewall 647]

what who does?

 

we may project stats for a new season. i dont consider that to be the same as saying Player A had X amount of points for an injury plagued 12 game season, but if we pretend he was fully healthy he would have done Y amount of stats.

 

when projecting for 2012, based on Floyds injury history I would probably project him to miss at least 2 games anyway.

 

Do as you wish.

 

I will assume that Floyd, Holmes, and DHB are equally likely to be injured. All have played full seasons and all have missed time.

[WhiteWonder 2,171]

Do as you wish.

 

I will assume that Floyd, Holmes, and DHB are equally likely to be injured. All have played full seasons and all have missed time.

 

that last comment was more in jest.

 

my main point is that we don't do our projections for 2012 by taking 2011 statistics and extrapolating them to pretend injured players played 16 games. lots of other factors go into the equation... i would hope

[Mike MacGregor 20]

Slow day yesterday, but we're up in two this morning.

 

I didn't think Ronnie Hillman would make it back, but assuming DraftCalc doesn't mess us up, he's the pick... unless you guys want to try to convince me otherwise. RB is pretty bare all around. Felix Jones and Toby Gerhart are our highest projected RB still available. Some interesting long-shot WR available. It is hard to believe Gonzalez and Celek haven't been drafted yet.

 

If Hillman does go and no one else strikes our fancy, any one up to considering the first defense off the board at this point?

 

As predicted last time, teams avoided QB this round and the last round. All of Cutler, Flacco, Palmer, etc. are still available. I'm thinking we'll pass on QB here and come back for our backup QB with the next pick.

[420allstars 13]

Slow day yesterday, but we're up in two this morning.

 

If Hillman does go and no one else strikes our fancy, any one up to considering the first defense off the board at this point?

 

 

Def seems like a ok choice here I suppose? only thing is who? I would have put San Fran at the top of my list but I checked the scoring under this format and Detroit was number 1 last year..not alot of difference in scoring for the top 4 though so it may make sence to wait another round

 

Laurent Robinson or another TE (gates dose have a bit of a injury history) dosent seem too far fetched either IMO

 

I personally LOVE Celek this year but I seem to be alone on that one in most discussions...

[Mustard Lover 3]

I think Toby Gerhart is a lock for production early in the year, can we say the same for Hillman. Toby filled in well last year, he just didn't get the touchdowns.

[Dr Hook 6]

Just a quick look at everything, I would take my back up QB with the next pick. You still have a few out there with some potential and we are not positive that P Manning will be good to go all year. Why risk the entire season on 1 position when you could get a solid back up? Just my 2 cents.

[Mike MacGregor 20]

Just received this:

 

Smitty (DraftCalc.com) emailed me to change the SF DEF auto-pick to Detroit RB Ronnie Hillman. I've made the change.

 

Thanks,

Jeff

 

Seriously?

 

Goes to show kids. When you know what player you want, use the pre-draft feature

[Mike MacGregor 20]

Going to take Gerhart. QB with the next pick. 2MugsFF is up in 2 and could be looking for insurance on Adrian Peterson. There are 3 QB available I'm very equal on, and I have my doubts the three teams on the end will take all three.

 

420 - I also like Celek. Looks like a bargain at this point, but since I can't slot him in the flex, going to shore up the RB depth first. We could easily miss out on him now. Still one team without a TE starter.

[Mustard Lover 3]

Just received this:

 

 

 

Seriously?

 

Goes to show kids. When you know what player you want, use the pre-draft feature

 

 

There is a spy among us!

[travis_henrys_baby_momma 10]

Just received this:

 

 

 

Seriously?

 

Goes to show kids. When you know what player you want, use the pre-draft feature

 

Wow.

[GreenTD 56]

I love the Carson Palmer pick at 11.04 to backup Peyton Manning. Great value in the 11th round, nicely done Mike.

[Mike MacGregor 20]

Thanks GreenTD. Especially when Bradford and Freeman go right after him (not that I agree with those picks), but very happy to have Palmer. Surprised Flacco and Fitzpatrick are still on the board ahead of some of these other backup QB, too.

 

Up in 4 now. A defense still hasn't been taken, so I just might pull the trigger there with San Fran. Otherwise, players I like are:

 

Laurent Robinson

- - -

Dustin Keller

Emmanuel Sanders

Randall Cobb

Santana Moss

Kendall Hunter

- - -

Owen Daniels

Kyle Rudolph

[Frozenbeernuts 1,652]

Added Reggie Wayne at 6.09, Peyton Manning at 7.04. I'd like to wait and get opinions here before making the picks, but in the interest of keeping the draft going I had to just make the call.

 

Wayne makes a great late drafted WR3, the 30th WR off the board in this draft. He's got a rookie QB, but one that couldn't be more highly touted as a passer coming into the league. Targets should be plentiful for Wayne. Even with modest TD expectations, Wayne is going to make up a lot of points on receptions. Some extremely good WR options in the last half dozen off the board, such as Steve Johnson, Antonio Brown, Torrey Smith and Eric Decker.

 

Manning was the 10th QB off the board. I'll take a shot on him at that point. Matt Ryan was still on the board, the only available QB projected higher by FF Today than Peyton, but I'm luke warm on Ryan talent wise. He's got a pair of great receivers, but his prior two seasons of improved fantasy stats came on a ton of pass attempts, which I'm not sure is sustainable with their new OC. Peyton has health issues - maybe. We won't truly know until he hits the field again and we see him play. The Broncos have the faith though, and I'll show the same faith in this once in a generation talent.

I think your assessment of ryan is a bit off. Youre worried about not having as many pass attempts? Why? With 2 receivers like that why would they throw less? Doesnt turner have a ton of carries also? So if he already has a ton of carries each year to go along with a ton of passing attempts by ryan, then they say they want to run less to keep the run game fresh, where do the extra plays on offense go? Punt?

 

I understand if you just think he doesnt have the talent to produce elite numbers but to say they might throw less doesnt make sense with an already overloaded rb and less than spectacular rbs behind him.

[GreenTD 56]

Thanks GreenTD. Especially when Bradford and Freeman go right after him (not that I agree with those picks), but very happy to have Palmer. Surprised Flacco and Fitzpatrick are still on the board ahead of some of these other backup QB, too.

 

Up in 4 now. A defense still hasn't been taken, so I just might pull the trigger there with San Fran. Otherwise, players I like are:

 

Laurent Robinson

- - -

Dustin Keller

Emmanuel Sanders

Randall Cobb

Santana Moss

Kendall Hunter

- - -

Owen Daniels

Kyle Rudolph

 

Santana Moss is intriguing but San Francisco's defense would-be a nice addition to this roster. This defense produces plenty of sacks/turnovers along with a solid special teams as well.

[Mike MacGregor 20]

I think your assessment of ryan is a bit off. Youre worried about not having as many pass attempts? Why? With 2 receivers like that why would they throw less? Doesnt turner have a ton of carries also? So if he already has a ton of carries each year to go along with a ton of passing attempts by ryan, then they say they want to run less to keep the run game fresh, where do the extra plays on offense go? Punt?

 

I understand if you just think he doesnt have the talent to produce elite numbers but to say they might throw less doesnt make sense with an already overloaded rb and less than spectacular rbs behind him.

 

I believe the idea is they are going to use the other RB more. I'm not a fan of Rodgers, but the team seems willing to let him build on his rookie season with more carries, and Snelling is no slouch. It should come down to offensive philosophy, and I'm just suggesting there is some risk there they will go with a more balanced rush-pass than the past two years. Plus, I don't think he's talented enough to produce elite numbers

 

Interesting to contrast against Manning though in terms of offensive philosophy. Whose offensive philosophy will win out - Manning or coach John Fox, who is traditionally very conservative?