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Will you take mahomes #1 overall next year


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#1 kilroy69

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Posted 30 December 2018 - 08:13 AM

In my league he was the top overall scorer.
Its still not a hummingbird.

#2 R8RMick

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Posted 30 December 2018 - 08:26 AM

In leagues that allow 6 pts per passing TD and 1 pt per 20 passing yards? Definitely.
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#3 EternalShinyAndChrome

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Posted 30 December 2018 - 08:26 AM

I've never taken a QB prior to round 7 at the earliest. That's not going to change with mahomes.

Taking a QB early is folly in all but 2 QB leagues, IMO.

#4 kilroy69

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Posted 30 December 2018 - 08:44 AM

I've never taken a QB prior to round 7 at the earliest. That's not going to change with mahomes.

Taking a QB early is folly in all but 2 QB leagues, IMO.

I'm in a super flex Which could be a 2 qb league. But the last 2 years the winning team ran a RB at the superflex.
Its still not a hummingbird.

#5 StockOptions

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Posted 30 December 2018 - 09:04 AM

For me it would depend on a few things such as the League size, Re-Draft or Dynasty league, Roster makeup (start 1 or 2 QB's), draft type (Snake vs. Linear), and knowing the other league owners and how they tend to draft...

 

In a re-draft Snake order 12-Team PPR League (one QB), I would not take him 1st overall.  However, I would consider him if my pick was late in the first round (because I'd be getting a top WR1 or RB1 on my Round #2 pick).



#6 jrokh

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Posted 30 December 2018 - 09:18 AM

My main league is a superflex and the teams that took the first 3 QB off the board (Rodgers, Watson, Brady) all missed the playoffs

#7 EternalShinyAndChrome

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Posted 30 December 2018 - 09:23 AM

My main league is a superflex and the teams that took the first 3 QB off the board (Rodgers, Watson, Brady) all missed the playoffs


Same here. I got Newton in the 9th and Luck in the 11th round. The #6 and #3 QBs in our league, respectively. I won the championship.

#8 jgcrawfish

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Posted 30 December 2018 - 11:54 AM

I'm in 3 leagues, won the championship in 2 and lost it in the other.  I didn't go QB before 5th in any of them.  In my 12 team competitive work league I drafted Russel Wilson (5th) and Jameis Winston (14th).  I essentially streamed QB's the entire season with Wilson, Winston, Tyrod Taylor, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Mitch Trubisky and Josh Allen.  My RB core of Barkley, McCaffrey, Mixon and Conner drove me the entire season. I've rarely picked a QB before the 5th round and every time I have it has ended badly.  

 

This isn't about drafting the top overall scoring player.  It's about value.  Drafting the biggest difference between the next player is a big thing, but things change so much from season to season there's no way to know.  If I have a top 5 pick next year, there's still NO WAY I'm passing on a stud RB (Gurley, Elliott, Barkley, McCaffrey, etc) for a QB.  Mahomes is a bit over 6 pts a game better than Roethlisberger, who was 2nd in my leagues.  That's a big difference.  But it's no so big that I give away a stud RB or stud WR for him when I can get Roethlisberger many rounds later.  I might consider Mahomes late 2nd/early 3rd, but that's if EVERYTHING remains the same on his team and only if I know I can still have a top RB and WR.  



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#9 LaChup

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Posted 30 December 2018 - 12:26 PM

^Zackly this!



#10 stonewall

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Posted 30 December 2018 - 12:43 PM

Yep, whatever position I am in in the 1st round, if he is there, I am taking him.

 

He's only gonna get better, and will single-handedly win you weeks, when other guys on your squad have bad weeks. That's important.

 

I won 4 Championships outta 6 leagues, with a 3rd place finish in another. Owned Mahomie in all of them. The 6th league where I missed the playoffs, I didn't own him.  I am sold.

 

I know that this isn't traditional logic, but I believe that QB's are less susceptible to injury, particularly with the enhanced rules protecting them....making the true "stud QB's" more valuable. Very good RB's can be found late in drafts and even post-draft, you just have to be a step ahead of other owners, especially on injury news. Heck, I won several of those ships with guys like Damien Williams, Elijah McGuire, Jamal Williams, Gus Edwards and CJ Anderson starting for me.


I feel my football knowledge is vastly superior to my opponents. I also am just in general, a smarter person. These two things should allow me a huge advantage. But I've yet to be truly dominant.


#11 EternalShinyAndChrome

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Posted 30 December 2018 - 12:51 PM

Yep, whatever position I am in in the 1st round, if he is there, I am taking him.

 

He's only gonna get better, and will single-handedly win you weeks, when other guys on your squad have bad weeks. That's important.

 

I won 4 Championships outta 6 leagues, with a 3rd place finish in another. Owned Mahomie in all of them. The 6th league where I missed the playoffs, I didn't own him.  I am sold.

 

I know that this isn't traditional logic, but I believe that QB's are less susceptible to injury, particularly with the enhanced rules protecting them....making the true "stud QB's" more valuable. Very good RB's can be found late in drafts and even post-draft, you just have to be a step ahead of other owners, especially on injury news. Heck, I won several of those ships with guys like Damien Williams, Elijah McGuire, Jamal Williams, Gus Edwards and CJ Anderson starting for me.

 

First, I think NFL defenses will catch on to Mahomes.  I think this year he got lucky because he's new, but I see a sophomore slump coming.  We see this all the time with rookie QBs.

 

Secondly, did you draft Mahomes in the 1st round this year?  I think you're making a colossal mistake if you draft him in the 1st next year thinking he's going to get better unless, of course, you play in 2 QB leagues.  Don't let his performance this year cloud getting VALUE from the position instead of hype.  Losing out on stud RB/WR will hurt you so much more than grabbing the cool, shiny QB.



#12 Frozenbeernuts

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Posted 30 December 2018 - 12:57 PM

 
First, I think NFL defenses will catch on to Mahomes.  I think this year he got lucky because he's new, but I see a sophomore slump coming.  We see this all the time with rookie QBs.
 
Secondly, did you draft Mahomes in the 1st round this year?  I think you're making a colossal mistake if you draft him in the 1st next year thinking he's going to get better unless, of course, you play in 2 QB leagues.  Don't let his performance this year cloud getting VALUE from the position instead of hype.  Losing out on stud RB/WR will hurt you so much more than grabbing the cool, shiny QB.


How is getting the top scoring player in all of fantasy not good value? It's not every year that we get the top scoring qb from the bottom part of the draft. This is a dude who is about to throw 50 tds. It's no accident, and he has plenty of weapons to go to. I won despite my 1st round pick being a bust. The safety of Mahommes is pretty enticing

#13 EternalShinyAndChrome

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Posted 30 December 2018 - 01:02 PM

How is getting the top scoring player in all of fantasy not good value? It's not every year that we get the top scoring qb from the bottom part of the draft. This is a dude who is about to throw 50 tds. It's no accident, and he has plenty of weapons to go to. I won despite my 1st round pick being a bust. The safety of Mahommes is pretty enticing

 

That's your problem:  it's about VALUE, not high scoring.  It's been proven over and over again that picking QB in the early rounds (especially 1st) is almost a guarantee of missing your playoffs, unless you play in 2 QB leagues.

 

Are we really debating this?  mahomes isn't going to throw 50 TDs year in and year out - Brady only did it once.  It's NOT a common occurance so you should treat it as such.  No way he will be even better next year.  You're going to see regression - but that only enhances my point (and just about every other expert's) about not taking QBs early.

 

It IS enticing, but this is where experience should come in to play to help overcome the hype.  :)



#14 Frozenbeernuts

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Posted 30 December 2018 - 01:10 PM

 
That's your problem:  it's about VALUE, not high scoring.  It's been proven over and over again that picking QB in the early rounds (especially 1st) is almost a guarantee of missing your playoffs, unless you play in 2 QB leagues.
 
Are we really debating this?  mahomes isn't going to throw 50 TDs year in and year out - Brady only did it once.  It's NOT a common occurance so you should treat it as such.  No way he will be even better next year.  You're going to see regression - but that only enhances my point (and just about every other expert's) about not taking QBs early.


How much value do I get if my 1st round rb screws me? None. Mahommes isn't going to bust. To assume he will regress signifantly means you haven't watched him enough

#15 LaChup

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Posted 30 December 2018 - 01:19 PM

Yep, whatever position I am in in the 1st round, if he is there, I am taking him.

 

He's only gonna get better, and will single-handedly win you weeks, when other guys on your squad have bad weeks. That's important.

 

I won 4 Championships outta 6 leagues, with a 3rd place finish in another. Owned Mahomie in all of them. The 6th league where I missed the playoffs, I didn't own him.  I am sold.

 

I know that this isn't traditional logic, but I believe that QB's are less susceptible to injury, particularly with the enhanced rules protecting them....making the true "stud QB's" more valuable. Very good RB's can be found late in drafts and even post-draft, you just have to be a step ahead of other owners, especially on injury news. Heck, I won several of those ships with guys like Damien Williams, Elijah McGuire, Jamal Williams, Gus Edwards and CJ Anderson starting for me.

Who are your other players? I doubt you won your league with RBs like Fournette and WRs like Evans.



#16 nobody

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Posted 30 December 2018 - 01:28 PM

In my league he was the top overall scorer.


It's not about being the overall scorer. It's about finding the guy with the most points above the average starter at the position.

In other words, it doesn't matter if mahommes scores 100 points a game if there are 12 guys that score between 98-99 points per game while someone like saquon Barkley scores 24 points a game and the next highest guy only scores 20.

#17 LaChup

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Posted 30 December 2018 - 01:34 PM

In all fairness, he did score more points than the second ranked QB than the top ranked RB or WR did at their positions. However, I do believe his biggest value this year was his draft position.



#18 stonewall

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Posted 30 December 2018 - 01:48 PM

Who are your other players? I doubt you won your league with RBs like Fournette and WRs like Evans.

 

Actually, I did have Fornette....and DJ (traded Rodgers for him) in one 12-man redraft league, and barely made the playoffs at 7-7. In fact, I wouldn't have made the playoffs without Mahomie limping me along. In addition, I had both Fournette and DJ on the bench for D. Williams and CJ in the ship

 

  https://fantasy.nfl..../6162584/team/1

 

              

 

                   

 

In another league, I had Gordon on the bench for CJ last week. Took a huge risk there, but truly believed that Gurly would sit. I also grabbed Lindsay after his week 1 surprise performance. However, it was my Mahomie/Kelce combo that carried me many weeks.

 

https://fantasy.nfl....ue/16335/team/9


I feel my football knowledge is vastly superior to my opponents. I also am just in general, a smarter person. These two things should allow me a huge advantage. But I've yet to be truly dominant.


#19 sirensong

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Posted 30 December 2018 - 03:21 PM

 

This isn't about drafting the top overall scoring player.  It's about value.  Drafting the biggest difference between the next player is a big thing, but things change so much from season to season there's no way to know.  

 

as a quantitative analyst, it irritates me that positional draft value question hasn't been deeply modeled.  yes there are variables, but there should be strong, reliable correlations.  if i could find the time, like to sit down in R and do a monte carlo simulation of the last few seasons for positional value maximization.



#20 EternalShinyAndChrome

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Posted 30 December 2018 - 03:28 PM

 

as a quantitative analyst, it irritates me that positional draft value question hasn't been deeply modeled.  yes there are variables, but there should be strong, reliable correlations.  if i could find the time, like to sit down in R and do a monte carlo simulation of the last few seasons for positional value maximization.

 

This is a great idea!  I fully expect you to have this done by end of July 2019 for me.  PM me when you're done do I can review your report.



#21 kilroy69

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Posted 30 December 2018 - 04:08 PM

 
This is a great idea!  I fully expect you to have this done by end of July 2019 for me.  PM me when you're done do I can review your report.

fock that. On my desk by Friday.
Its still not a hummingbird.

#22 kilroy69

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Posted 30 December 2018 - 04:15 PM

I took him in the 4th round this year. I know. Sounds nuts. But in a superflex league I drafted hill 3rd and wanted that stack. I was sold on him after watching him overthrow hill in the preseason.

Would a jump from 4th to 1st be out of the question?
Its still not a hummingbird.

#23 sderk

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Posted 30 December 2018 - 05:09 PM

The only year I ever paid up for a QB was back when Peyton Manning was in his prime and I took him high. I ended up at the bottom of the league that year. This year I drafted Wentz and Garoppolo for cheap in my 12 team auction league and 24 QBs were off the board at the end of the draft. I ended up streaming Flacco early, then played Wentz for a few weeks, then ended up streaming Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson.

 

I made the championship game. And although I didn't win it, I only lost by a mere 3.3 points. Ironically here in this discussion, my opponent had Mahomes going for 37.9 in that game, and for me Jackson had 20.1. That being said, he got Mahomes for cheap.



#24 cmh6476

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Posted 30 December 2018 - 05:19 PM

5k and 50 tds is going to be the norm for this dude, I think.

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#25 jrokh

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Posted 30 December 2018 - 05:33 PM

5000 maybe. 50 tds? I doubt it, he may not even hit 40 next year



#26 cmh6476

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Posted 30 December 2018 - 05:34 PM

5000 maybe. 50 tds? I doubt it, he may not even hit 40 next year

pfffttt

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#27 EternalShinyAndChrome

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Posted 30 December 2018 - 05:38 PM

pfffttt

 

50+ TDs has only been hit THREE times in the entire history of the NFL and you're saying that's going to be the norm for him?  No way.  NFL defenses will catch up and he'll get his sophomore slump.

 

The kid is good, no doubt, and no one is denying that.



#28 cmh6476

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Posted 30 December 2018 - 05:43 PM

The offense should be better next year. Not really losing anyone and the possibility of adding a rb or oline help

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#29 makindollaz

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Posted 30 December 2018 - 06:05 PM

I probably won't take him ahead of Gurley, Barkley or Zeke, but I'd start considering him at 4 with CMc or A.Brown.

#30 kilroy69

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Posted 30 December 2018 - 06:55 PM

The offense should be better next year. Not really losing anyone and the possibility of adding a rb or online help

you should probably listen to this guy. He has been spot on all year.
Its still not a hummingbird.

#31 posty

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Posted 30 December 2018 - 06:58 PM

Depends on the league scoring...

#32 cmh6476

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Posted 30 December 2018 - 07:15 PM

you should probably listen to this guy. He has been spot on all year.

:blush:

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#33 huskyhater75

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Posted 30 December 2018 - 09:00 PM

In leagues that allow 6 pts per passing TD and 1 pt per 20 passing yards? Definitely.

I'm in 10 team league, 6 pt TDs, PPR, 1 pt every 20 yds, 1 pt every 10 yds rushing-all QB stats alone! If I get #1 pick I'd very strongly consider it. But I've had best luck going RB-best available first 2 picks.


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#34 weepaws

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Posted 30 December 2018 - 09:53 PM

In my league he was the top overall scorer.

If you play in a superflex or two Qb starting league I would say yes.

If you only start one Qb heck no. M

Everyseason the top scoring Qb is going to be the overall top scorer.

There is no way I could ever say yes to taking a Qb in the first round much less first overall pick, unless its a two Qb league.

If you won your league and had mahomes as your Qb, just be thankful, but you didnt spend a first round pick on him this season. I remember I few posters saying the same think about Watson after last season.
Thanks.
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#35 Gepetto

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Posted 30 December 2018 - 10:21 PM

No.  I took DeShaun Watson over Mahomes in this year's draft and the championship game matchup I faced Mahomes.  Watson outscored him 44 - 33. 



#36 weepaws

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Posted 31 December 2018 - 01:47 AM

First eleven games with K Hunt.

32.7 ff points per game, 35.5 att per game, 329 yards per game, 3.3 tds per game and a 67.8 completion rating.

Since week twelve,and with out K Hunt.

26.8 ff points per game, 37 att per game, 293 passing yards per game, 2.6 tds per game, 62.5 completion rating.

It’s going to be very interesting watching KC in the playoffs.

And he won’t have Hunt next season.

I just can’t see taking a Qb first overall, and never ever in the first round.

Thanks.

Happy New Year.

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Isaiah 12:2. Luke 14:23. Daniel 4:37. 2 Kings 17:39. Nahum 1:7. 1 Timothy 6:18-19. Psalm 9:7&8.
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#37 cmh6476

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Posted 31 December 2018 - 05:08 PM

Is there anybody else you would consider over mahomes at the position next year?

#Royals


#38 EternalShinyAndChrome

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Posted 31 December 2018 - 05:17 PM

Is there anybody else you would consider over mahomes at the position next year?

 

If Mahomes is still around after the 7th or later,  I most likely would take him or Andrew Luck.  However, that never happens in my league.  1/2 the league thinks you need to take a QB before the 4th or 5th round. 

 

That's the 1/2 of the league that is perpetually playing in the toilet bowl, btw.



#39 jrokh

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Posted 31 December 2018 - 05:23 PM

All rounds being equal Mahomes is definitely the #1 QB

#40 EternalShinyAndChrome

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Posted 31 December 2018 - 05:24 PM

All rounds being equal Mahomes is definitely the #1 QB

 

Absolutely, with Luck being a close 2nd, imo.  I think Mahomes comes back down to earth next year.