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#1 Canadianfan

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Posted 31 December 2018 - 09:15 PM

I'm a Green Bay fan so this one will hurt.

I'm picking the Chicago bears to win. The only team with a defense .... remind me of the 2016 broncos. The ram game convinced me on how good they are. Mitch did everything he could to lose that game with three picks, and they still dominated.

Also, I'll be betting kalihl Mack to win superbowl MVP. It's available at bet365 @ 33-1. No chance Mitch wins if they win it....I expect a dominant performance buy him in all four games.

I also have Indy at 40-1 so hoping they meet.

#2 Frozenbeernuts

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Posted 31 December 2018 - 10:36 PM

I will lose it if they win. Their defense is so legit, but Trubisky needs to play on a high level confidence wise. I hope Nagy doesn't hold him back, because this isnt the Era of safe qb play

#3 riversco

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Posted 31 December 2018 - 10:56 PM

The only super bowl caliber defense in the NFL right now the Chargers.  Their key numbers that I track went off the chart once Bosa came back.   Teams posting the defensive numbers the Chargers are putting up since Bosa came back go to the super bowl a LOT.  I trust in that.  For all the talk of the Ravens defense, Mayfield shredded them.  I think the book might be out on the Ravens now after the Browns game.  Mayfield and the Browns spread them out with 5 WR sets and carved them up.  The Chargers are getting TE Hunter Henry back for the wild card game so I expect to see them go with Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, and Hunter Henry out to one side and then send over either Gordon or Benjamin to that side as well and see if they can light that defense up like the Browns did.  I feed them that all day and check it out.  If it doesn't work, it will be because Rivers isn't as mobile, But I'll challenge them with it.

 

I want 4 WRs on one side all day.

 

I have this super bowl as Saints over Chargers.  Wouldn't be surprised to see the Chargers win it all though.



#4 Frozenbeernuts

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Posted 31 December 2018 - 11:05 PM

The only super bowl caliber defense in the NFL right now the Chargers.  Their key numbers that I track went off the chart once Bosa came back.   Teams posting the defensive numbers the Chargers are putting up since Bosa came back go to the super bowl a LOT.  I trust in that.  For all the talk of the Ravens defense, Mayfield shredded them.  I think the book might be out on the Ravens now after the Browns game.  Mayfield and the Browns spread them out with 5 WR sets and carved them up.  The Chargers are getting TE Hunter Henry back for the wild card game so I expect to see them go with Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, and Hunter Henry out to one side and then send over either Gordon or Benjamin to that side as well and see if they can light that defense up like the Browns did.  I feed them that all day and check it out.  If it doesn't work, it will be because Rivers isn't as mobile, But I'll challenge them with it.
 
I want 4 WRs on one side all day.
 
I have this super bowl as Saints over Chargers.  Wouldn't be surprised to see the Chargers win it all though.


Disnt even mention the Bears. Your post is irrelevant

#5 riversco

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Posted 31 December 2018 - 11:07 PM

Disnt even mention the Bears. Your post is irrelevant

 

haha.

 

No, the Bears defense doesn't grade out as Super Bowl caliber.  I can't see them getting past the Saints.  The Chargers get two grades, pre and post Bosa.  The post-Bosa grade is super bowl caliber.



#6 Brutal Brutus

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Posted 31 December 2018 - 11:26 PM

The only super bowl caliber defense in the NFL right now the Chargers.  Their key numbers that I track went off the chart once Bosa came back.   Teams posting the defensive numbers the Chargers are putting up since Bosa came back go to the super bowl a LOT.  I trust in that.  For all the talk of the Ravens defense, Mayfield shredded them.  I think the book might be out on the Ravens now after the Browns game.  Mayfield and the Browns spread them out with 5 WR sets and carved them up.  The Chargers are getting TE Hunter Henry back for the wild card game so I expect to see them go with Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, and Hunter Henry out to one side and then send over either Gordon or Benjamin to that side as well and see if they can light that defense up like the Browns did.  I feed them that all day and check it out.  If it doesn't work, it will be because Rivers isn't as mobile, But I'll challenge them with it.
 
I want 4 WRs on one side all day.
 
I have this super bowl as Saints over Chargers.  Wouldn't be surprised to see the Chargers win it all though.

Completely unbiased opinion here

#7 Frozenbeernuts

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Posted 01 January 2019 - 12:01 AM

Completely unbiased opinion here


Yep. The fact that he doesn't even mention the Bears proves it. Don't have to love the Bears D, but to say there are any legit SB defenses and not mention Chi, that's just baseless

#8 riversco

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Posted 01 January 2019 - 12:12 AM

Yep. The fact that he doesn't even mention the Bears proves it. Don't have to love the Bears D, but to say there are any legit SB defenses and not mention Chi, that's just baseless

 

There are certain metrics that separate super bowl defenses from good defenses.  The Bears surprisingly fail the test.



#9 RaiderHater's Revenge

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Posted 01 January 2019 - 12:16 AM

share those metrics if you want something to stand on

 

I will pick the Chargers too, cause

 

1) they are undefeated when they travel this year

2) they are the only team with a top 10 offense and defense

3) they are getting more weapons healthy

4) it would be so San Diego like for the Chargers first SB win to be after they left

 

also screw dean spanos


Suck it Rockford---

 

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#10 riversco

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Posted 01 January 2019 - 01:45 AM

Well one thing you like to look at is how a defense plays in the second half against a franchise QB, when the defense is getting tired and the offense can take over.  The Chargers get stronger.  They blew out the Steelers 28-7 at the end of the game.  They blew out the Chiefs 22-7 at the end of that game.  I look at the Bears defense against franchise QBs and they don't ever take over a game like that.  I like to zero in on the Bears vs the best.  Bears vs Russell Wilson?  Second half was 14-14.  I look at Bears - Packers, I see 24-6 Packers in the second half with Aaron Rodgers dominating.  Bears-Patriots second half I see Tom Brady winning 17-14.  The second Packer game, Rodgers won the second half 14-10.  

 

Maybe you just don't appreciate how HARD it is to do that to franchise QBs.  They are ripping their throats out.  Its really terrifying and way more impressive than anything the Bears are doing.

 

I mean they go into KC, a place where Mahomes throws 50 TDs and 5000 yards, and just told him to get the ###### off the field we're the Chargers and routed them 22-7 at the end.  Yikes.

 

They have to sit in the #5 slot instead of the #1 because of a fumble return for a TD.



#11 sderk

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Posted 01 January 2019 - 02:04 AM

 
haha.
 
No, the Bears defense doesn't grade out as Super Bowl caliber.  I can't see them getting past the Saints.  The Chargers get two grades, pre and post Bosa.  The post-Bosa grade is super bowl caliber.


Chargers #8 in points given up. Bears....#1 ☺

#12 cmh6476

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Posted 01 January 2019 - 02:53 AM

Chiefs over a whoever

#Royals


#13 jrokh

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Posted 01 January 2019 - 06:22 AM

Saints over the Pats, As those QBs tend to rise up as usual in the postseason

#14 skydiverd

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Posted 01 January 2019 - 07:29 AM

Bears Homer here.  I think they have a realistic chance to get there.  I do believe they can at least make it to the NFC Championship againt Da Saints.  That game can go either way and defense travels well.  Hard to say, I'm just happy to finally have something to root for in the post season.

 

On the AFC side, I cannot ignore the Pats, again.  Ugh..  LOL  But the Chiefs are fun to watch also.  I hope that ends up as the AFC Championship game.  

 

Obviously I want the Bears in the SB, but if that cannot happen, then I'd really love to watch Saints / Chiefs.  Of course, if Da Bears get in, then I'd prefer they play any other AFC team except KC and NE LOL.  



#15 Kopy

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Posted 01 January 2019 - 07:34 AM

We're getting a Seahawks - Chargers SuperBowl
<p>......SEATTLE SEAHAWKS......      Future Dynasty

#16 kilroy69

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Posted 01 January 2019 - 08:00 AM

The Ravens. Jackson is going to run the triple option for one game in the superbowl. Control time of possession and run the ball 52 times vs 3 passes.
Its still not a hummingbird.

#17 Kopy

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Posted 01 January 2019 - 10:47 AM

The Ravens. Jackson is going to run the triple option for one game in the superbowl. Control time of possession and run the ball 52 times vs 3 passes.

You think he can make his game work?
I just keep getting a Colin Kaepernick type vibe from him. Where once teams figure out how to play him, he's done.
I don't think he's as good as a Cam Newton type. I just think he's young, full of p!ss and vinegar, and not alot of film on him yet.
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#18 kilroy69

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Posted 01 January 2019 - 10:52 AM

You think he can make his game work?
I just keep getting a Colin Kaepernick type vibe from him. Where once teams figure out how to play him, he's done.
I don't think he's as good as a Cam Newton type. I just think he's young, full of p!ss and vinegar, and not alot of film on him yet.

I think that for one game. A triple option could work and they have a team for it. Long term. No way it works.
Its still not a hummingbird.

#19 RaiderHater's Revenge

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Posted 01 January 2019 - 11:09 AM

Well one thing you like to look at is how a defense plays in the second half against a franchise QB, when the defense is getting tired and the offense can take over.  The Chargers get stronger.  They blew out the Steelers 28-7 at the end of the game.  They blew out the Chiefs 22-7 at the end of that game.  I look at the Bears defense against franchise QBs and they don't ever take over a game like that.  I like to zero in on the Bears vs the best.  Bears vs Russell Wilson?  Second half was 14-14.  I look at Bears - Packers, I see 24-6 Packers in the second half with Aaron Rodgers dominating.  Bears-Patriots second half I see Tom Brady winning 17-14.  The second Packer game, Rodgers won the second half 14-10.  

 

Maybe you just don't appreciate how HARD it is to do that to franchise QBs.  They are ripping their throats out.  Its really terrifying and way more impressive than anything the Bears are doing.

 

I mean they go into KC, a place where Mahomes throws 50 TDs and 5000 yards, and just told him to get the ###### off the field we're the Chargers and routed them 22-7 at the end.  Yikes.

 

They have to sit in the #5 slot instead of the #1 because of a fumble return for a TD.

 

I just wanted to see where you go

 

Also the Chargers defense has been the ultimate bend don't break defense, they have had so many huge stops in the redzone


Suck it Rockford---

 

The Right protests the killing of babies, the left protests EVERYTHING else


#20 jrokh

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Posted 01 January 2019 - 11:26 AM

The record of West Coast road teams playing on the East Coast in the playoffs is not good. Chargers have the odds stacked against them. The only thing going for them is they just played Lamar Jackson so can review the tape and exploit a weakness.



#21 RoadLizard

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Posted 01 January 2019 - 11:33 AM

As much as the bears defense does impress.... this league requires an offense to win titles. It aint the 70s or 80s when "defense won championships". No super bowl participant or winner over the least several years has had a great defense and an average at best offense. Its just not the right formula any longer. Trubisky has to get more seat time before hes ready, IMO. If the bears get behind r things dont go right early I just dont think you can trust that offense.

The saints are the best team in the NFC overal, IMO and will be a tough out at home. The Seahawks have looked impressive of late and can be scary. I have this feeling that Rams arent quite ready to take that next step and wont advance far if at all. Dallas and the Eagles have some talent but with Foles injury that kills the eagles, me thinks. I dont trust Dallas either. So, the Saints will represent the NFC

As much as it sucks, its hard to bet against the Pats but they dont have a defense and Brady has been really good but not lights out as of late. Theyll likely have to travel to KC and theyve been bad on the road this year. The chargers are probably th best team in th AFC but they have to win 3 road games to get there. Tough to do. Forget the Colts or Texans. Just not good enough. The Ravens are scrappy but Jackson isnt ready yet for this. The Ravens will struggle to beat the Chargers but if they do theyll be OUT the next round anyways so it wont matter.

The AFC IMO is a toss up between the Chargers, The Chiefs and the Pats. Any of those three have about the same shot to go but Id give a slight edge to the Chiefs if I had to. So, Cheifs versus Saints.... but thats not set in stone. ;)

#22 cbfalcon

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Posted 01 January 2019 - 11:51 AM

Throwing out week 17 with backups..and if my math it right...Saints averaged 37 points per game in games 1-11. They only averaged 20 points per game in the last 4. Obviously its worrisome.

I am seeing Rams vs Seahawks and Chiefs vs Pats. Rams defeat the Patriots in the Super Bowl.
I like steak

#23 skydiverd

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Posted 02 January 2019 - 02:02 PM

Well one thing you like to look at is how a defense plays in the second half against a franchise QB, when the defense is getting tired and the offense can take over.  The Chargers get stronger.  They blew out the Steelers 28-7 at the end of the game.  They blew out the Chiefs 22-7 at the end of that game.  I look at the Bears defense against franchise QBs and they don't ever take over a game like that.  I like to zero in on the Bears vs the best.  Bears vs Russell Wilson?  Second half was 14-14.  I look at Bears - Packers, I see 24-6 Packers in the second half with Aaron Rodgers dominating.  Bears-Patriots second half I see Tom Brady winning 17-14.  The second Packer game, Rodgers won the second half 14-10.  

 

Maybe you just don't appreciate how HARD it is to do that to franchise QBs.  They are ripping their throats out.  Its really terrifying and way more impressive than anything the Bears are doing.

 

I mean they go into KC, a place where Mahomes throws 50 TDs and 5000 yards, and just told him to get the ###### off the field we're the Chargers and routed them 22-7 at the end.  Yikes.

 

They have to sit in the #5 slot instead of the #1 because of a fumble return for a TD.

While I agree with you that the SD defense is very good, and of SB quality, your metrics for dismissing the Bears as a SB caliber defense seems to be nothing more than a summary of numbers that only support your argument, rather than reporting on all of them.  For example here are some other 2nd halves for SD you did not mention:  Ravens 16-7,  Chiefs (game 1) 21-16,  Bills 14-3,  Rams 14-10., Titans 13-10. This would not paint SD defense in a very good light, as these are not even great QB's (except for Mahomes).  Using only the second half stats of selected games for the Bears that are unfavorable and only second half games for SD that were favorable is akin to what our media does today, "Blurring" facts to match their opinion.  And the real issue to using only this data is it does not take into account game specific scenarios.  Teams entering the 2nd half with a lead, are likely to give up more yardage and points, as both teams focus shift.  There could be other scenarios as well, their offense may be playing more conservative, thus putting the defense in bad situations, they may make a crucial turnover, etc  This metric alone is useless as you can see when you look at more than just the outcomes that match your argument.  Now if you're going to claim to have used only games with Bosa (sorry, not looking that up), then you cannot consider the SD defense of SB caliber if one player makes that much difference.  Kalil Mack missed several weeks as well, let alone joining the team just before week 1 without any practice at all and having to learn a completely new system.  

 

These metrics do matter:  PPG allowed, Yardage allowed, Turnovers, Sacks, QB pressures, etc.  I'm sure that SD grades well in all of these.  As do the Bears (actually better in just about all of them).  These stats are available in totality over the full 16 games.  This is the true measure of the performance of the defense.  The complete metrics do show the Bears as a SB caliber defense.  as well as several others.  Baltimore for sure.  Houston and Dallas can make an argument too.   



#24 phillygrrl08

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Posted 02 January 2019 - 04:15 PM

KC vs NO, a shootout with KC pulling out a last second win.



#25 R8RMick

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Posted 02 January 2019 - 07:38 PM

Aints have a defense now, and a solid running game. And Drew Brees is one of the best playoff quarterbacks in the game. It's their year.
"The floggings will continue until morale improves..."

#26 eagles115

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Posted 02 January 2019 - 08:14 PM

Eagles will beat the bears on sunday. Im not sure we can walk into NO and win but they will battle til the end. Same thing happened last year no one gave the birds a chance and its the same again.



#27 sderk

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Posted 03 January 2019 - 02:07 AM

Eagles will beat the bears on sunday. Im not sure we can walk into NO and win but they will battle til the end. Same thing happened last year no one gave the birds a chance and its the same again.


Nice.

#28 Mr Neil

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Posted 03 January 2019 - 06:04 AM

I made 6 futures throughout the year; 4 are still alive, I have the following odds:
Seahawks v Chargers at 85 to 1
Kansas City v Saints at 44 to 1
Ravens v Saints at 65 to 1
Colts v Saints at 43 to 1
Which means you know itll be Patriots coming out of the AFC to f me

#29 Frozenbeernuts

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Posted 03 January 2019 - 06:30 AM

I have the Bears future winning the NFC. I already hit on their over for wins and winning the NFC North. I'm going with Bears vs Chiefs. What a treat thst would be!

#30 rotisserieking

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Posted 03 January 2019 - 10:57 AM

From an odds perspective, this was an interesting take: https://www.yahoo.co...00887--spt.html



#31 Raider 84

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Posted 03 January 2019 - 12:21 PM

Seattle over Patriots  Nice rematch  :doublethumbsup:


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#32 nzoner

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Posted 03 January 2019 - 12:35 PM

I made 6 futures throughout the year; 4 are still alive, I have the following odds:
Seahawks v Chargers at 85 to 1
Kansas City v Saints at 44 to 1
Ravens v Saints at 65 to 1
Colts v Saints at 43 to 1
Which means you know itll be Patriots coming out of the AFC to f me

 

 

I have the Bears future winning the NFC. I already hit on their over for wins and winning the NFC North. I'm going with Bears vs Chiefs. What a treat thst would be!

When I was in Mississippi in August a friend called me and had me put $50 on KC to win AFC 12 to 1 and $50 on KC to win SB 30 to 1,even as a KC fan I almost considered covering the bet thinking easy $100,still not sold on them going all the way but quite relieved I opted to give the new Biloxi sportsbook the action.


"NOTHING MATTERS BUT THE WEEKEND,FROM A TUESDAY POINT OF VIEW."

#33 nzoner

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Posted 03 January 2019 - 12:40 PM

With apologies to Mr. Neil I'm picking Colts vs. Saints(I rarely hit on SB predictions) and if it does happen it means KC will be making a 5th early playoff exit thanks to the Colts.


"NOTHING MATTERS BUT THE WEEKEND,FROM A TUESDAY POINT OF VIEW."

#34 shutdown

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Posted 03 January 2019 - 01:22 PM

I think it's Saints vs Pats. 

 

Saints only because home field advantage.  I don't find them to be significantly better than the Bears or the Eagles but I think home field seals it.  I think Dallas just isn't quite there on both sides of the ball and the Rams are completely lacking on the defensive side of the ball to go on the road and win.  Seattle's a decent team as well but I don't see them winning in New Orleans.

 

I could easily see Chicago losing in round 1.  The eagles defense is getting players back in the secondary and nobody is really afraid of Mitchell.  He still makes a lot of mistakes in the passing game.  However the bears D is legit for sure and could carry them to the title game.  But I just can't see a Mitchell led team beating a Brees led team in the NFC title game in the dome.

 

On the other side, KC isn't quite the same with Hunt gone and I just trust NE in a winner take all match-up more than I would Mahomes and KC, even on the road. 

 

I'd throw the Chargers in the mix, but I think they lose week 1.  For all the bluster about the "Championship Caliber" defense above, they are next to last in rushing yards per game and I think that going to Baltimore is the worst possible match-up for them.  Houston won't win at NE and may not beat Indy if they continue to play conservative on offense, because that defense isn't as great as it's made out to be.  I also think Baltimore would be the team most likely to KO the Pats if that match-up comes in to play as the Ravens D has always been tough on Brady and I'm not sure how the Pats D would handle that offense.



#35 Canadianfan

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Posted 03 January 2019 - 01:39 PM

Eagles will beat the bears on sunday. Im not sure we can walk into NO and win but they will battle til the end. Same thing happened last year no one gave the birds a chance and its the same again.



Three reasons why you're wrong.

1st. Eagles had homefield advantage last year.

2nd. Defense was playing at a championship level

3rd. Better coaching

#36 eagles115

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Posted 03 January 2019 - 02:03 PM

Three reasons why you're wrong.

1st. Eagles had homefield advantage last year.

2nd. Defense was playing at a championship level

3rd. Better coaching

Have not noticed the difference since Foles took over as starting QB..... The whole team has changed



#37 Canadianfan

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Posted 03 January 2019 - 03:20 PM

Have not noticed the difference since Foles took over as starting QB..... The whole team has changed



#38 Canadianfan

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Posted 03 January 2019 - 03:29 PM

Have not noticed the difference since Foles took over as starting QB..... The whole team has changed



A million things went right last year in that superbowl run. This year you'll need three consecutive road runs with a qb who has bruised ribs. Is there a chance? Absolutely. But to go out and say nobody gave you guys a chance last year so this year will be the same is being a little naive. Everything has changed and even an eagles fan would agree. Bottom line, this eagles team is not as good, coaching is not as good, and the element of surprise is over.

Mike Nagy is a different animal. And that defense is vicious. Unless foles can borrow Super mans ribs for the a day, I don't see eagles putting up much of s fight.

#39 LaChup

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Posted 03 January 2019 - 08:57 PM

Foles is going to go out and tongue punch the Bears in da fart box! :lock:



#40 sderk

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Posted 03 January 2019 - 10:47 PM

Foles is going to go out and tongue punch the Bears in da fart box! :lock:


Ok.