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[Wildman]

The 2008 Rookie Scouting Portfolio

By Matt Waldman (a.k.a. The Gut Check)

Now in its third year of publication, the RSP has established itself as a helpful, informative resource for both fantasy owners and draftniks alike:

> Contains analysis to use as both a quick resource or a detailed reference encyclopedia for the incoming draft class

> Overall positional rankings with a brief summary on each ranked player

> Best players by major skill categories at their position

> Overrated/Underrated by position

> Projects at each position (players who have strong skills in one area but need extra development)

> Adjusted RSP scores based on available combine/workout measurements

> Rookie Draft Value Charts for 8, 10, and 12-team dynasty leagues

> D.J. Nestrick will be doing a team draft needs section for '08

> At least 110 detailed game film analysis profiles of prospects from the offensive skill positions

> Each analysis is scored on a specially designed form created to pinpoint the skills that truly matter to predict success/failure

> The scoring system is highly intuitive in terms of the reader understanding the analysis method

> Each checklist is performed on a single game and most of the top tier prospects have at least 2-3 checklists in the RSP, meaning you actually get significantly more than 110 profiles, but I just count the prospects not the checklists

My takes on certain players can sometimes stand out from other draft analysts. Take for example this interview I did prior to last year's draft where I talk about my less than enthusiastic views of Brandon Jackson, Antonio Pittman and Robert Meachem while promoting the one rookie QB prospect (Trent Edwards) who wound up seeing extensive time as a starter and took his team to the brink of the playoffs - the same QB that Bill Walsh endorsed with a personal letter that wasn't reported in the media until the QB became the starter.

You can find numerous sample checklists on this article page. Check the Rookie Impact Series for 2005, 2006, and 2007 and the previous Gut Check columns.

As the RSP continues to gain success, I plan to add profiles for defensive linemen, linebackers, and defensive backs within the next 2-3 seasons. Several customers have expressed interest in purchasing either (or both) the 2006 and 2007 RSP. If you would like to do so, contact me and I'll make arrangements to get them to you. Thanks for your support!

Order here before April and save 55%

There are 128 players evaluated for this draft class of skill positions:

QBs]Bobby Reid
John David Booty (2)
Matt Ryan (2)
Xavier Lee
Matt Flynn
Danny Ainge
Joe Flacco
Andre Woodson (2)
Chad Henne (2)
Brian Brohm (3)
Blake Mitchell
Alex Brink
Dennis Dixon
Sam Keller (2)
Anthony Morelli
Colt Brennan (2)
Bret Meyer
Paul Smith
Kyle Wright
Adam Tafralis


RBs
Rafael Little
Peyton Hillis
Tim Hightower
Tony Temple (2)
Lance Ball (2)
Keon Lattimore
Allen Patrick (2)
Andre Callender
Kevin Smith (3)
Jalen Parmalee
Jacob Hester (2)
Mike Hart (2)
Felix Jones (6)
Darren McFadden (6)
Rashard Mendenhall (3)
Omar Cuff
Xavier Omon (2)
Albert Young (2)
Jamaal Charles (2)
Thomas Brown
Kregg Lumpkin
Chauncy Washington (2)
Chris Markey (3)
Tashard Choice (2)
Matt Forte
Alley Broussard
Jehuu Caulcrick (2)
Justin Forsett (2)
George Stripling
Rodney Kinlaw
Chris Johnson
Amir Pinnix
Ryan Torain
Cory Boyd
Jonathan Stewart (2)
Ben-Jarvis Green
Brandon McAnderson (2)
Dontrell Savage (2)
John Randle
Yvenson Bernard (2)
Ray Rice (3)
Peyton Hillis (one as an RB and one as a TE)
Steve Slaton (3)


WR
Devin Thomas
Danny Amendola
Darrell Blackman
Marcus Monk (3)
William Franklin
Brandon Breazell (2)
Robert Jordan (2)
Devon Bess (2)
Ryan Grice-Mullen (2)
Malcolm Kelly (2)
Andre Caldwell (2)
Anthony Russo
Marcel Reece
Mario Manningham (3)
Paul Hubbard
Adrian Arrington (2)
Eddie Royal
Kevin Challenger
Steve Johnson(3)
De'Cody Fagg
Darius Reynaud (2)
Josh Morgan
Justin Harper
Marcus Henry
Dorien Bryant
Earl Bennett (2)
D.J. Hall (3)
Limas Sweed (2)
Adarius Bowman (2)
Amarri Jackson
Early Doucet (4)
Jabari Arthur
Terrell Golden
Kerry Franks
James Hardy
Jason Rivers (3)
Michael Bumpus
Sammie Stroughter
DeSean Jackson (3)
Lavelle Hawkins (2)
Keenan Burton (4)
Harry Douglas (3)
Mario Urrutia (3)
Terrence Nunn
Maurice Purify
Todd Blythe
Darnell Jenkins




TE
Corneilus Ingram (2)
Brad Cottam
Kellen Davis
Jermichael Finley
Joey Haynos
Craig Stevens
Joe Jon Finley
Dustin Keller
Chris Brown
Fred Davis (3)
Mike Peterson (2)
Jacob Tamme (4)
Kris Kasparek
Mike Rucker (2)
John Carlson
Gary Barnidge
Gabe Ratcliff
Robbie Agnone
Martellus Bennett

[t.j]

Matt, thank you for your work on the Rookie Scouting Portfolio! You were a tremendous help in turning my long-time mediocre keeper league team into a champion. I drafted an army of now-studly rookies in 2006 and they came through in a big way this year: Santonio Holmes, Brandon Marshall, Maurice Jones-Drew, and Reggie Bush. And I stayed away from some unproductive 2007 rookies based on flaws that you called out. Looking forward to RSP08!

[Wildman]

Matt, thank you for your work on the Rookie Scouting Portfolio! You were a tremendous help in turning my long-time mediocre keeper league team into a champion. I drafted an army of now-studly rookies in 2006 and they came through in a big way this year: Santonio Holmes, Brandon Marshall, Maurice Jones-Drew, and Reggie Bush. And I stayed away from some unproductive 2007 rookies based on flaws that you called out. Looking forward to RSP08!

Glad to hear! Nice group of players you picked there, T.J. Happy Holidays!

[Wildman]

I've been spending my holiday vacation breaking down tape of prospects for the RSP. I've watched games of about 35 players in the past 8-9 days. And already had about 30-35 done. Today, I'm watching Tulsa QB Paul Smith (for this year's RSP) and UCF RB Kevin Smith (for 2009). I thought I'd share some observations.

If you haven't seen Kevin Smith play, I'll tell you right now that when you first get a look at him you wonder if he's even old enough to be on a college football field. He's built more like a CB than an RB--taller, wiry--doesn't look like he's filled out his pads completely. If you look at his face, you'd mistake him for a 16 year old kid.

But this kid can really play. I think physically what's most impressive about him is how fluid a runner he is. He is very light on his feet and makes excellent cuts. He can jump cut, make the lateral move, and bend the direction of his run to angles that you generally only see from elite backs. Part of this has to do with his hips. The best CBs have really good hip flexibilty and can turn their hips very quickly to change direction. Smith has this trait as an RB He also glides a bit as he runs--he's faster than he looks and gets up to full speed pretty quickly. And though he looks wiry, he is 6-1, 211--and will run over safeties and drag LBs. In this respect--hips, power, acceleration--his style reminds me a lot of Marcus Allen.

He blocks well, although he needs to work on his hand placement and initial hit to be a top-notch pass blocker. But what is really impressive about his non-physical skills is his vision. I'm watching him make good decisions against 8 and 9 man fronts and on two plays choose the right hole despite it being smaller than the other option. If you saw Clinton Portis' TD on Sunday where he squeezed through that small alley on the left corner and then split two DBs, you know that's the kind of vision a good pro runner needs. He needs to anticipate openings at the LOS and not try to make too many moves when he can outrun the angle of his opposition. Kevin Smith already is beginning to show this as a runner. Granted his offensive line is playing lights out football in this game, and Miss St held him in check, but Miss St has a great defense and the size advantage over Tulsa. He finishes runs with good pad level, too.

In other words, Smith is a bonafide NFL prospect who is making the right decision to stay one more year. He should be no less than a 2nd round pick if he stays healthy. I seriously haven't seen a runner who runs like Marcus Allen until now. He's that long-striding, quick change of direction player with vision and deceptive power.

Okay, back to work ...

[ratbastard1]

I'm buying this. That's a great price! I have 3 first round picks in my 5 keeper and need all the rookie RB research I can get.

[Wildman]

I'm buying this. That's a great price! I have 3 first round picks in my 5 keeper and need all the rookie RB research I can get.

It is a great price...people pay $40-$50 for draft info that doesn't cover the players you want to research for fantasy football with this much depth. And I'm getting orders for the previous 2006 and 2007 version because folks are realizing the shelf life is a good 4-5 years for each publication.

If anyone is interested in either the 2006 or 2007 publications, you can them right now for $9.95 each. Bascially, for under $30, you can get about 350 profiles of players from 2006-2008's draft classes....

[jdswan922]

I've been spending my holiday vacation breaking down tape of prospects for the RSP. I've watched games of about 35 players in the past 8-9 days. And already had about 30-35 done. Today, I'm watching Tulsa QB Paul Smith (for this year's RSP) and UCF RB Kevin Smith (for 2009). I thought I'd share some observations.

If you haven't seen Kevin Smith play, I'll tell you right now that when you first get a look at him you wonder if he's even old enough to be on a college football field. He's built more like a CB than an RB--taller, wiry--doesn't look like he's filled out his pads completely. If you look at his face, you'd mistake him for a 16 year old kid.

But this kid can really play. I think physically what's most impressive about him is how fluid a runner he is. He is very light on his feet and makes excellent cuts. He can jump cut, make the lateral move, and bend the direction of his run to angles that you generally only see from elite backs. Part of this has to do with his hips. The best CBs have really good hip flexibilty and can turn their hips very quickly to change direction. Smith has this trait as an RB He also glides a bit as he runs--he's faster than he looks and gets up to full speed pretty quickly. And though he looks wiry, he is 6-1, 211--and will run over safeties and drag LBs. In this respect--hips, power, acceleration--his style reminds me a lot of Marcus Allen.

He blocks well, although he needs to work on his hand placement and initial hit to be a top-notch pass blocker. But what is really impressive about his non-physical skills is his vision. I'm watching him make good decisions against 8 and 9 man fronts and on two plays choose the right hole despite it being smaller than the other option. If you saw Clinton Portis' TD on Sunday where he squeezed through that small alley on the left corner and then split two DBs, you know that's the kind of vision a good pro runner needs. He needs to anticipate openings at the LOS and not try to make too many moves when he can outrun the angle of his opposition. Kevin Smith already is beginning to show this as a runner. Granted his offensive line is playing lights out football in this game, and Miss St held him in check, but Miss St has a great defense and the size advantage over Tulsa. He finishes runs with good pad level, too.

In other words, Smith is a bonafide NFL prospect who is making the right decision to stay one more year. He should be no less than a 2nd round pick if he stays healthy. I seriously haven't seen a runner who runs like Marcus Allen until now. He's that long-striding, quick change of direction player with vision and deceptive power.

Okay, back to work ...

Now that Kevin Smith flip-flopped will he be included?

[jgcrawfish]

It is a great price...people pay $40-$50 for draft info that doesn't cover the players you want to research for fantasy football with this much depth. And I'm getting orders for the previous 2006 and 2007 version because folks are realizing the shelf life is a good 4-5 years for each publication.

If anyone is interested in either the 2006 or 2007 publications, you can them right now for $9.95 each. Bascially, for under $30, you can get about 350 profiles of players from 2006-2008's draft classes....

Matt, how about a package deal? Say all three years for $25 or something? (Won't apply for me, I already paid for '07), but just a suggestion.

[Wildman]

Matt, how about a package deal? Say all three years for $25 or something? (Won't apply for me, I already paid for '07), but just a suggestion.

Again, we have something like that worked out. If you are interested, drop me or Mike Krueger an e-mail and we'll give you the details as to how to get all three at a discount of $29.85 ($9.95 apiece)

[Wildman]

Now that Kevin Smith flip-flopped will he be included?

Absolutely!

[jgcrawfish]

Again, we have something like that worked out. If you are interested, drop me or Mike Krueger an e-mail and we'll give you the details as to how to get all three at a discount of $29.85 ($9.95 apiece)

Ok. Thanks. I was actually considering going back for the '06 RSP just to check it out. Like you said, shelf life is still good. Keep up the good work!

[Wildman]

Ok. Thanks. I was actually considering going back for the '06 RSP just to check it out. Like you said, shelf life is still good. Keep up the good work!

No problem...And it does have a decent shelf-life.

Look at just some of the players who have a chance to contend for a starting job in the next few years, and we've only had a glimpse of their skills in an NFL game. These are some examples of guys from '06-07 I covered:

Ahmad Bradshaw--he was my preseason, long shot fantasy sleeper in '07. Although he didn't do much until the end, he might have been the best runner on the field in the wild card game, Sunday against Tampa.

Sam Hurd--Terry Glenn and T.O. are in the twilight of their careers and the drop-off in receiver productivity is sudden--look at Rod Smith and Jimmy Smith.

Jerome Harrison--he continues to get time on the field and produce when giving Jamal Lewis a breather.

Jackie Battle--the Chiefs used him late this season, is he a potential role player if LJ ever goes down?

Steve Smith--He was hurt all year, but made some key plays in the wild card game for the Giants

Andre Hall--Travis Henry has a year or two left. Selvin Young is another guy I've touted, but Hall looked good in limited relief. Does he have a shot?

Bruce Gradkowski--He wasn't special as a starter, but his talents could develop to the point that he gets a shot to be the next Jeff Garcia

Kevin Kolb--McNabb's heir apparent

Jason Hill--49ers will be looking to him to step it up next season and make a big push for playing time.

Charles Sharon--The Jags actually said he had a shot to start in their WR corps. None of their receivers have been especially impressive this year, if Sharon continues to improve he could earn some time in the rotation next season.

Priest Holmes, Chad Johnson, TJ Houshmandzadeh, Hines Ward, Matt Hasselbeck, Jeff Garcia, Brett Favre, Brian Westbrook, Tony Romo, Wes Welker, Terrell Owens, and many NFL players took 2-3 seasons to become productive starters and surprised the average NFL fan with their ascension to stardom. So it's probable one of these players--or others you can find in the past issues of the RSP--will follow suit. Not a bad way to get a jump-start on the competition with extra research that helps you determine whether the training camp hype has legs.

[Wildman]

See players I updated today and players I will include (in Italics on the first post)

[Wildman]

Players finished this week:

RB Ray Rice's 39-carry, 181-yard effort against S. Florida's fast defense that stopped Kevin Smith and Steve Slaton and didn't allow a 100-yard game in 14 games. The last one to gain 100 yards was...Ray Rice.

WR Earl Bennett--This was a 4 reception 31-yard performance, but there was more than enough on film to show this guy is a player with NFL potential. In the right offense he could develop into a #1 WR. If he doesn't, he will be a quality starter.

WR Dorien Bryant--Does your league use kick return points? This guy could be good for at least this role in the NFL. Think Az-Hakim potential both as a slot receiver and kick returner.

TE Dustin Keller--impressive TE who doesn't have the after the catch skills of say, Vernon Davis, but he's going to be a weapon.

QB Kyle Wright--Surprisingly good skills, but there's a few things abot him that he'll need to improve upon to become the next Derek Anderson or he'll at best be the next Rob Johnson

WR Darnell Jenkins--tough slot receiver. Can he be more?

RB Rashard Mendenhall--I think the jury is still out on this runner. At this point (I have more to study), but I wonder if his decision to go pro is wise...

QB Sam Keller--I did a game of his as a Cornhusker in the west coast offense and this week I did a game with him in the Sun Devil vertical attack. He has starter skills as a passer of the football, but does he have the rest of the game to be a good NFL QB?

[Wildman]

Here's an e-mail from a customer who purchased the 2007 version this week...

from Tim H <beft>
to "thegutcheck@gmail.com" <thegutcheck@gmail.com>,
date Jan 17, 2008 3:36 PM
subject Re: 2007 RSP
signed-by sbcglobal.net

hide details 3:36 PM (16 hours ago)



Reply


Matt,

All I can really say at first is "Wow!" There is just a TON of great and useful information packed into that report. I thought I'd give it a quick glance during my lunch hour and I found myself reading quite a bit of it over the next 2 hours. I like the way everything is laid out. It's easy to understand and covers all the items necesary to make it a top notch scouting report for the fantasy footballer. It's the kind of analysis that I would love to do if I had the time to sit and watch game film for all of the upcoming NFL rookies, but you've done all of the work so I don't have to. I'm already feeling like I got great value on several players in my rookie drafts last year becasue you reinforced some of the things I saw in several players, and I'm already looking for ways to trade a few players in cases where I bought into the media hype last year. I am so looking forward to this year's report now so that I don't have to play from behind this season. I know you want to spread the word about your report, but deep down I'm hoping that the other owners don't find out about this too soon. LOL! I'll give you 2 big thumbs up though. Keep up the good work!

[jdswan922]

Bradshaw should be practically selling this thing for you the way he has played at the end of the season and the playoffs. He had a good game and almost an outstanding game tonight were it not for that holding call. Solid call on him in your below the radar article back in June.

[Wildman]

Bradshaw should be practically selling this thing for you the way he has played at the end of the season and the playoffs. He had a good game and almost an outstanding game tonight were it not for that holding call. Solid call on him in your below the radar article back in June.

Thanks.

[Wildman]

Wildman, at the risk of asking a question you don't want to answer, where do you get your gamefilm for the RSP? It's a killer idea and is one of the best scouting docs, particularly for FF purposes, I ever seen. I'd love to have your job (although I know, right this moment, without question, I know my wife would divorce me in the blink of an eye if I did anything more than I currently do that's FF related )

I'd love to have my job too! Hopefully, it can someday be my first job rather than my 3rd

I record every possible game I can get my hands on. It's really that simple. I don't have the scout film from up above, but with the exception of times where it can be problematic for judging receivers in routes, it's still excellent for most anything I evaluate. I TIVO and keep a library of discs. I'll probably add a second DVR next year. I often evaluate film from a player's junior year and senior year. Sometimes a guy plays better as a junior because he's healthier at that time. Bernard Berrian, who was drafted prior to me starting this publication, was a player who had a much better underclassman performance than one later in college. Part of that had to do with playing with Carr and the other had to do with his health. Farve was also a guy Ron Wolf watched as a junior more than a senior. Kenneth Darby the RB on the Bucs PS is one of those players who could wind up that way.

Trust me, it's time-consuming but a lot of fun. Every year it seems like I watch a player or two who plays so well on film that I can't wait to talk about him. Two years ago it was Adrian Peterson just from the sheer standpoint of some of the insane talent he flashed, but he didn't come out until last year. Bradshaw was one of those players for me last year.

[Wildman]

I'd love to have my job too! Hopefully, it can someday be my first job rather than my 3rd

I record every possible game I can get my hands on. It's really that simple. I don't have the scout film from up above, but with the exception of times where it can be problematic for judging receivers in routes, it's still excellent for most anything I evaluate. I TIVO and keep a library of discs. I'll probably add a second DVR next year. I often evaluate film from a player's junior year and senior year. Sometimes a guy plays better as a junior because he's healthier at that time. Bernard Berrian, who was drafted prior to me starting this publication, was a player who had a much better underclassman performance than one later in college. Part of that had to do with playing with Carr and the other had to do with his health. Farve was also a guy Ron Wolf watched as a junior more than a senior. Kenneth Darby the RB on the Bucs PS is one of those players who could wind up that way.

Trust me, it's time-consuming but a lot of fun. Every year it seems like I watch a player or two who plays so well on film that I can't wait to talk about him. Two years ago it was Adrian Peterson just from the sheer standpoint of some of the insane talent he flashed, but he didn't come out until last year. Bradshaw was one of those players for me last year.

Here are more samples from 2006 and 2007:

Maurice Jones Drew
Santonio Holmes
Mike Bell
Laurence Maroney
Bruce Gradowski
Jason Hill
Wali Lundy
Leon Washington

[Damifiknow]

Here are more samples from 2006 and 2007:

Maurice Jones Drew
Santonio Holmes
Mike Bell
Laurence Maroney
Bruce Gradowski
Jason Hill
Wali Lundy
Leon Washington

Based on the RSP 2006 and 2007, I drafted Jones-Drew, Colston, Ahmad Bradshaw, Steve Smith (NYG), Trent Edwards, John Beck - and those are the ones that just come to mind without thinking. I'm in several deep dynasty leagues, and wouldn't be without RSP. Am watching for Sharon to show up in one league. Sounds like a good catch. Paid through 2009 last year, so I'm eagerly awaiting the 2008 version. Thanks for the hard work!

[shaqers]

tried out the RSP last year and it worked out great, recommend it especially for this price.

quick one for Waldman if you dont mind. Mayock and now Brian Baldinger have downgraded McFadden, saying he isn't an ELITE prospect. Do you agree with both those guys?

http://www.sportingn...ic.php?t=335333

[Wildman]

tried out the RSP last year and it worked out great, recommend it especially for this price.

quick one for Waldman if you dont mind. Mayock and now Brian Baldinger have downgraded McFadden, saying he isn't an ELITE prospect. Do you agree with both those guys?

http://www.sportingn...ic.php?t=335333

Thanks Shaqers...I'm still on the fence with McFadden. I'm purposely waiting to evaluate another game or two before I stand firm on my opinion. Thus far, I'd have to say I agree with several of Mayock's points from my film study of a few of his games in the past two seasons. I place a high value on vision (and I break it down in a few different ways) when I evaluate RBs and I've seen several examples on film where I don't see McFadden making the right choices. I don't have him as my top back right now. At the same time I don't agree that Mendenhall is as good of a back as Mayock believes. Even the film examples he gave of the USC game I disagree with some of his assessments.

As a comparison Mayock thought MJD was at best the #7 RB in the 2006 class and I had him ranked #4 in the 2006 RSP.

I am scheduled to take some days off work and watch about 40 more games between now and a week from Sunday. I'll have a more definitive opinion on McFadden at that point, but I purposely wanted to finish every back I plan watch more than once before I finish with McFadden, but I'll say now that he's not the best back and I like at least 2-3 others as much if not more and that number may increase when I'm through.

[Wildman]

Well I can see why Baldinger bashed McFadden. I'm watching the game he gave color commentary (The Cotton Bowl loss to Mizzou where he gained 104 yards on 21 carries). In all honestly, he looked pretty bad in the first half. No patience or display of good lateral movement whatsoever. He had a 4-5 opportunities to create better runs than he had, but he either didn't show patience, didn't make a lateral move several other backs could make, or have the vision to see a better gap. Some of this is consistent with his performance in other games I saw, but it's a bit more amplified here. Last year I watched a game against LSU and I thought McFadden looked like the next Dickerson.

I'm beginning to think I may have to watch that game a second time along with a couple of others of his.

I've done this before with some players when something jumped off the page that I either really liked or didn't like about them and felt like I needed to double check my views on the player. MJD was this type of player for me in the opposite sense in which now I'm going to re-open my analysis into McFadden.

[shaqers]

Well I can see why Baldinger bashed McFadden. I'm watching the game he gave color commentary (The Cotton Bowl loss to Mizzou where he gained 104 yards on 21 carries). In all honestly, he looked pretty bad in the first half. No patience or display of good lateral movement whatsoever. He had a 4-5 opportunities to create better runs than he had, but he either didn't show patience, didn't make a lateral move several other backs could make, or have the vision to see a better gap. Some of this is consistent with his performance in other games I saw, but it's a bit more amplified here. Last year I watched a game against LSU and I thought McFadden looked like the next Dickerson.

I'm beginning to think I may have to watch that game a second time along with a couple of others of his.

I've done this before with some players when something jumped off the page that I either really liked or didn't like about them and felt like I needed to double check my views on the player. MJD was this type of player for me in the opposite sense in which now I'm going to re-open my analysis into McFadden.

thoughts on Mendenhall's shuttle time? looks like he had the best time of all the RBs who did the drill

[Wildman]

thoughts on Mendenhall's shuttle time? looks like he had the best time of all the RBs who did the drill

I was surprised, because it didn't appear to translate on the field as well as the workouts. I would speculate there are a couple of reasons:

1) His vision isn't great, so he may be more hesitant. Remember Mendenhall could not beat out Pierre Thomas last year and Thomas went undrafted. Of course, he apparently was so much better than Antonio Pittman last year that the Saints cut their draft pick saying it was not even close how much better Thomas was.

2)Although quick, I didn't see him show the ability to drop his hips and move side to side in a game situation where he could use a lateral move to cut from one gap to another behind the LOS. He was decent at making a move down field but this was in open space and they weren't sharp cuts as much as they were stutter steps or dips in direction.

I measured Mendenhall with pads on during that USC run for a score and he ran a 4.38 in one stretch of 40 yards and one in the 4.45-4.5 range depending where you start his run. So I wasn't surprised with the 40, but the shuttle was surprising. Then again, Curtis Keaton had a great shuttle too. If I saw Mendenhall show just a bit more in vision or lateral movement, I'd probably be much higher on the guy. I think he'll be a player, I just not sure I see him as one of the top 3-4 backs

[shaqers]

I was surprised, because it didn't appear to translate on the field as well as the workouts. I would speculate there are a couple of reasons:

1) His vision isn't great, so he may be more hesitant. Remember Mendenhall could not beat out Pierre Thomas last year and Thomas went undrafted. Of course, he apparently was so much better than Antonio Pittman last year that the Saints cut their draft pick saying it was not even close how much better Thomas was.

2)Although quick, I didn't see him show the ability to drop his hips and move side to side in a game situation where he could use a lateral move to cut from one gap to another behind the LOS. He was decent at making a move down field but this was in open space and they weren't sharp cuts as much as they were stutter steps or dips in direction.

I measured Mendenhall with pads on during that USC run for a score and he ran a 4.38 in one stretch of 40 yards and one in the 4.45-4.5 range depending where you start his run. So I wasn't surprised with the 40, but the shuttle was surprising. Then again, Curtis Keaton had a great shuttle too. If I saw Mendenhall show just a bit more in vision or lateral movement, I'd probably be much higher on the guy. I think he'll be a player, I just not sure I see him as one of the top 3-4 backs

i'm with you on Mendenhall.

off-topic, what do you think about Ginn and Sidney Rice? You had both guys on the overrated list, but I think both showed something last year, especially Rice. I believe both guys may be stars in the league in 2 years.

[Wildman]

i'm with you on Mendenhall.

off-topic, what do you think about Ginn and Sidney Rice? You had both guys on the overrated list, but I think both showed something last year, especially Rice. I believe both guys may be stars in the league in 2 years.

I still think compared to Dwayne Bowe and Steve Smith that they were overrated considering they were ranked higher than these two. I think Rice has what it takes and as long as Minny as AD and a great o-line, he has a shot to really develop because I would think Minny will take care of their QB situation in the next year or two. He was someone who I thought could be very good, but just not an immediate factor. I'd say from my perspective he was a pleasant surprise, and definitely worth keeping. Although Ginn's stats weren't much different I saw less of him this year. Honestly, I'll have to watch a bit more next year to revise my take on him if I do at all. I still think Miami will need a more reliable play maker at WR for Beck or whomever QB's the team.

[shaqers]

I still think compared to Dwayne Bowe and Steve Smith that they were overrated considering they were ranked higher than these two. I think Rice has what it takes and as long as Minny as AD and a great o-line, he has a shot to really develop because I would think Minny will take care of their QB situation in the next year or two. He was someone who I thought could be very good, but just not an immediate factor. I'd say from my perspective he was a pleasant surprise, and definitely worth keeping. Although Ginn's stats weren't much different I saw less of him this year. Honestly, I'll have to watch a bit more next year to revise my take on him if I do at all. I still think Miami will need a more reliable play maker at WR for Beck or whomever QB's the team.

thanks Matt.

Just pre-ordered my RSP, hoping to get the same results as last year !!!!!

btw, how does Stewart compare to Lynch in your assessment? seeing Lynch in the pros, looks like Lynch got excellent vision, burst and his quickness in tight spaces. I havent seen much of Stewart so hoping to see how he would compare to a Lynch.

thanks.

[jgcrawfish]

Well Waldman, I'm in too, hoping to find a diamond in the coal field. You shocked me last year with your ranking of Lynch just higher than ADP (although pretty much even for all purposes) so I'm just itching to see who you've got at the top this year.

[mdog1967]

Matt thank you, 2007 was a hit, I drafted Steve Smith, Jason Hill and the Jewel of your 2007 RSP A. Bradshaw. The jury is still out on Hill, but Steve Smith and Bradshaw are a real treat. I promote your RSP to every one I know (Except my league). I have 3 first round picks in this upcoming season including the 1st, 7th and 14th. I am already leaning towards staking Stewert with my first. It looks like there are going to be RB's in mass this draft. Cant wait to get 2008 in my greedy little hands.
Again thanks, best money I have spent on FFB in the last 7 years.

[Wildman]

Matt thank you, 2007 was a hit, I drafted Steve Smith, Jason Hill and the Jewel of your 2007 RSP A. Bradshaw. The jury is still out on Hill, but Steve Smith and Bradshaw are a real treat. I promote your RSP to every one I know (Except my league). I have 3 first round picks in this upcoming season including the 1st, 7th and 14th. I am already leaning towards staking Stewert with my first. It looks like there are going to be RB's in mass this draft. Cant wait to get 2008 in my greedy little hands.
Again thanks, best money I have spent on FFB in the last 7 years.

Great to hear and glad you feel that way!

[Wildman]

I've changed my tune on Mendenhall. I realized that I was overly critical of two factors in his game that brought him down a notch in my book. One of them had to do with his balance, which I think is much better than how originally saw it. His speed is obviously more than good enough and I admit that I was way too critical of his burst. Watching three of his games a second time, I realize that I was placing too much emphasis on the play call or judging it against a few other fast guys in this draft. In other words, I put down the crack pipe when i watched his games.

He's a player I wouldn't mind drafting at all as one of the top 4-6 backs in this draft.

Can't say I came around on McFadden though...watched 3 more games of his that I had not seen and watched the three I have seen once before. He's much more a roll of the dice than I think some believe. I can understand why Mike Mayock would say he wouldn't touch him with the first 20 picks in the draft. I agree. He was also probably the single toughest player I've ever had to evaluate thus far for this publication. It's another reason why did 6 games on the guy.

[Wildman]

Here's an e-mail I got tonight from someone who just purchased the '06 and '07 RSPs while waiting for '08...

BTW--I'm about a week away from completing film research and I'll be editing, ranking, and writing everything for the 4/1 release date.

Hi Matt,

Just finished grinding through the 2006 & 2007 RSP. Still lots of great info to be gleaned from them. The summaries are very good but the raw data is great for a stat ###### like me. At twice the price it would still be a great value. I have already started using the 2006 version as the basis for ranking potential 3rd year WRs. It also gives a good historical baseline to compare the stats from the Combine for this year's RBs against the top RBs from 2006 & 2007.

[mdog1967]

Here's an e-mail I got tonight from someone who just purchased the '06 and '07 RSPs while waiting for '08...

BTW--I'm about a week away from completing film research and I'll be editing, ranking, and writing everything for the 4/1 release date.

Hi Matt,

Just finished grinding through the 2006 & 2007 RSP. Still lots of great info to be gleaned from them. The summaries are very good but the raw data is great for a stat ###### like me. At twice the price it would still be a great value. I have already started using the 2006 version as the basis for ranking potential 3rd year WRs. It also gives a good historical baseline to compare the stats from the Combine for this year's RBs against the top RBs from 2006 & 2007.

Matt the only potential problem your going to have with your RSP is its a damn good teaching tool as well. I look at football players completely different then in the past, and find myself evaluating RB's and QB's on every play. Its very difficult for me to really see enough of the WR's and Mid range routes TE's run. The field of view on TV is so small. I cant ever tell if the WR is running good routes, making adjustments on the QB or what. (Could be teaching your way out of a publication, lol)

[Wildman]

I have to watch a boat load of film for WRs to get enough of a sample on route running and sometimes I don't get to see it as well as I'd like for a prospect. But the thing that works in my favor in most cases is that route running is the one thing the great majority of receivers need to work on most as they enter the pros. Most receivers can run a hitch, a curl, a streak, post, slant, or crossing route correctly. Some are better with vertical routes in terms of spacing to the sideline than others (which is a subtle nuance that few receivers show in college) but few run deep outs, square ins, or post corners. It takes a lot of timing for the QB and receiver to really do these well and in the college game its still a lot about getting the best athlete on the outside the ball as quickly as possible on a smash screen, swing pass out of the slot or route to the sideline.

I hope to find these plays on film for receivers:

Press coverage on the receiver--happens less than I'd like to see for opportunities to grade.
Bracketed coverage
Corner fades
Intermediate routes of any type (15-25 yards past the LOS--think Isaac Bruce and Torry Holt in Martz's offense)
Skinny posts or in routes towards the teeth of the defense with an impending hit
Receptions in very tight coverage.

Games often show a few plays from angles where you can see what the receiver is doing when the ball isn't thrown in his direction--which can also be telling.

[Wildman]

Film study is done and I'll be spending the rest of the month compiling the information and editing. We should be ready for download as originally scheduled (4/1).

[t.j]

[Wildman]

I'm still flipping out about my ranking of McFadden. I just completed my ranking of 43 RBs and I'll just say that DMac isn't in my top 5...and it was not really even close....I actually bumped him up a bit due to the fact that I have to recognize his speed as a trait that gives him upside.


The good thing is that with a player of this high of a profile, anyone who completely disagrees with my viewpoint will pick him anyhow. It's a good thing I've established this publication as one that often goes outside the norm with rankings because I think my RBs differ from many rankings. Then again, it was the same way for the past two years with certain guys....still, didn't anticipate this perspective on McFadden--he could turn out to be what many think, but after 6 games of in-depth study I'm willing to be wrong about him if that's the case.

[Kopy]

Hey Matt,
Has their ever been a kid you were 100% completely wrong on?

You did your studies. Double and triple checked, and felt he would never, ever be a great NFL player. And he wound up being great?

[Wildman]

Hey Matt,
Has their ever been a kid you were 100% completely wrong on?

You did your studies. Double and triple checked, and felt he would never, ever be a great NFL player. And he wound up being great?

So far, no...but this is only the 3rd year. I'm expecting it to happen at some point--even with prior seasons where some players haven't had a chance to show their stuff one way or another. Lendale White could turn out to be one of those guys, but probably not...McFadden just seems like he could be one of those players....