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Round 13-16 Discussion


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#1 WhiteWonder

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Posted 14 June 2011 - 09:58 AM

Go

#2 WhiteWonder

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Posted 14 June 2011 - 10:16 AM

Michael bush.... a guy shop can score 7 or 8 even if dmc us healthy which is no given. Or he goes elsewhere

LT... my boy. I think he can chip in some double digit fantasy weeks every now and then to cover a bad week by a starter.

#3 JScott

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Posted 14 June 2011 - 11:21 AM

Kicker run .... AAAAAHHHHHHH :runaround:

#4 WhiteWonder

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Posted 14 June 2011 - 11:28 AM

I hope morten Anderson makes it back to me

#5 Ray Lewis's Limo Driver

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Posted 14 June 2011 - 11:36 AM

I hope morten Anderson makes it back to me


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#6 robb

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Posted 14 June 2011 - 12:29 PM

Kicker run .... AAAAAHHHHHHH :runaround:


Honestly, why are we picking kickers in the 13th round? I would welcome your comments so that I can consider using this strategy in upcoming real drafts.

#7 Dan

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Posted 14 June 2011 - 12:29 PM

My only reasoning in taking the kicker in 13 was that I didn't want to be at the end of the run, and decided to get "my guy," a guy who is perennially in the top five in points, and has 30+ field goals three years running. A fairly safe bet to not keep me "out of it," so to speak. The other players that I want are plenty enough that they will still be sitting there, as we enter the trash and treasure part of the draft.

#8 Ray Lewis's Limo Driver

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Posted 14 June 2011 - 12:37 PM

Honestly, why are we picking kickers in the 13th round? I would welcome your comments so that I can consider using this strategy in upcoming real drafts.


Think of it this way......what "points" are you likely drafting in the 13th round?

13.03 - TE Tony Moeaki KC - Jeepz just bought himself the 254th ranked FF scorer from 2010.......wow......a whopping 2.86pts per game average...

BUT

David Akers scored 8.64 pts per game.....Mason Crosby scored 7 pts per game again, on average....

If you already have a few running backs, wideouts, a tight end.....why buy 2 - 3 pts per game at a position at which you are already built? Why not buy the top points at a position where you have yet to invest?

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#9 WhiteWonder

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Posted 14 June 2011 - 12:50 PM

Think of it this way......what "points" are you likely drafting in the 13th round?

13.03 - TE Tony Moeaki KC - Jeepz just bought himself the 254th ranked FF scorer from 2010.......wow......a whopping 2.86pts per game average...

BUT

David Akers scored 8.64 pts per game.....Mason Crosby scored 7 pts per game again, on average....

If you already have a few running backs, wideouts, a tight end.....why buy 2 - 3 pts per game at a position at which you are already built? Why not buy the top points at a position where you have yet to invest?

Or the difference between the top and 13th kicker isn't big and the turnover at the top is usually big as well

Where as tony mo could end up as a top 10 te.

Gotta find position gems

#10 Vikings4ever

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Posted 14 June 2011 - 01:07 PM

12.11 - Jerome Simpson

Wanted Jordy Nelson, but Simpson was my next choice. In the last 2 games of the season, Ocho and TO were out. What happens? Simpson explodes for 18 catches, 247 yards, and 3 TDs. I'll take that potential.

13.02 - Ben Watson

Pretty much a perennial letdown in New England. But he brought a weapon to the Cleveland passing game. 68 catches, 763 yards, and 3 TDs. Catches and yards were good for 5th among TEs, and TDs are much chancier. If he can repeat, he's a VERY good late round TE2.
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#11 Ray Lewis's Limo Driver

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Posted 14 June 2011 - 01:35 PM

Or the difference between the top and 13th kicker isn't big and the turnover at the top is usually big as well

Where as tony mo could end up as a top 10 te.

Gotta find position gems


Upside I can find later, after I fill in the best players at the other positions. Then, while some are praying for the likes of Moeki to wake up one day, I get solid production from known and tested players.

The difference between Moeki or even Heap and what I can find later is negligible....

Getting Akers at 8.95ppg instead of say Lindell at 4.94ppg means more to me than zeroing in on sub-2ppg scoring from some TE (whicvh is what they all are now), hell, we are even in the 4pt range for WR's at this point....

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#12 Dan

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Posted 14 June 2011 - 02:02 PM

[quote name='WhiteWonder' date='14 June 2011 - 02:50 PM' timestamp='1308077337' post='4498151']

All the more of a good idea to get a player that is very solid bet to stay in the top five. And your Tony Mo, who could jump into the top ten is a gamble to do so, just like the guy that I'm likely to draft in the next round who, incidentally, is not likely to be taken before my next pick. This is the other point in this. I know some folks here will draft kicker in the 15th round, because they measure their value just above that of defenses. BUT the 14th round is where folks start grabbing them. Why would I not want to be on the front side of that?

I'll also say this. There is a 34 point difference between last year's #1 kicker and the #13 kicker (no names). On average, the difference was about two points a game. An interesting little note here: the difference in the #13 and the #24 TE is about 2 points a game. By the aforementioned logic, we should draft backup TEs this early.
But more than this, you're looking for consistency in those points, as this draft is supposed to reflect what you would need in a regular league, and not just in what amounts to a total points league. In that case, there is a purpose for taking a guy that gives you the necessary points regularly. :)

#13 JScott

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Posted 14 June 2011 - 02:08 PM

Upside I can find later, after I fill in the best players at the other positions. Then, while some are praying for the likes of Moeki to wake up one day, I get solid production from known and tested players.

The difference between Moeki or even Heap and what I can find later is negligible....

Getting Akers at 8.95ppg instead of say Lindell at 4.94ppg means more to me than zeroing in on sub-2ppg scoring from some TE (whicvh is what they all are now), hell, we are even in the 4pt range for WR's at this point....


I understand and agree with what you're saying about filling in your starters with the best players possible including PKs but you're selling the TEs short in your example. And since you mentioned Heap (my pick)... he quietly produced the 8th best TE average last year at 7pts per game and 15th in total points even missing 3 games.

You're correct that his point production is only 2-3 points more than other TEs that can be had but you twisted your PK stats. Akers did finish at 8.9 last year but the 12th ranked PK (***) finished with 7.4 only 1.5 behind. Lindell (your example) had the 40th ranked average. I'm of course assuming everyone here takes only 1 PK but even the 24th ranked PK finished with a 6.9 average, only two points behind Akers. So if you follow your own strategy (which I did) taking Heap in the 13th (PK later) is a better point diff value versus PK now (TE later).

#14 JScott

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Posted 14 June 2011 - 02:19 PM

ICE - let's hope Gostkowski's quad doesn't rip away from the bone again :yikes:

#15 WhiteWonder

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Posted 14 June 2011 - 03:52 PM

Upside I can find later, after I fill in the best players at the other positions. Then, while some are praying for the likes of Moeki to wake up one day, I get solid production from known and tested players.

The difference between Moeki or even Heap and what I can find later is negligible....

Getting Akers at 8.95ppg instead of say Lindell at 4.94ppg means more to me than zeroing in on sub-2ppg scoring from some TE (whicvh is what they all are now), hell, we are even in the 4pt range for WR's at this point....


Saying the difference between moeaki and heap is negligible is pure speculation. YOU might feel that way but someone else may think the young kc tight end is ready to bust out.

saying you will receive sub 2ppg scoring from that TE is also speculation. If you found this years mercedes lewis, that certainly wont be the case

there is no cap to what that positional player can give you

however we know there is a relative cap for what the best kickers can give you.

and its well documented that the per game difference between the first and 12th kicker is small and that the top kicker is unlikely to repeat and in many cases was not even drafted the year before

#16 Ray Lewis's Limo Driver

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Posted 14 June 2011 - 03:55 PM

I understand and agree with what you're saying about filling in your starters with the best players possible including PKs but you're selling the TEs short in your example. And since you mentioned Heap (my pick)... he quietly produced the 8th best TE average last year at 7pts per game and 15th in total points even missing 3 games.

You're correct that his point production is only 2-3 points more than other TEs that can be had but you twisted your PK stats. Akers did finish at 8.9 last year but the 12th ranked PK (***) finished with 7.4 only 1.5 behind. Lindell (your example) had the 40th ranked average. I'm of course assuming everyone here takes only 1 PK but even the 24th ranked PK finished with a 6.9 average, only two points behind Akers. So if you follow your own strategy (which I did) taking Heap in the 13th (PK later) is a better point diff value versus PK now (TE later).


So why would I use a pick that could get me an extra 4-5 pts per game on a player that would likely garner less? if i am picking in round 13, I take the 7-8pt player over the 4-5 pt player..... But I also apply some logic to it, do i believe that Moeki or Heap will outscore Akers?, no way in hell does that happen....so I would absolutely take Akers over either one.

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#17 Ray Lewis's Limo Driver

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Posted 14 June 2011 - 03:58 PM

Saying the difference between moeaki and heap is negligible is pure speculation. YOU might feel that way but someone else may think the young kc tight end is ready to bust out.

saying you will receive sub 2ppg scoring from that TE is also speculation. If you found this years mercedes lewis, that certainly wont be the case

there is no cap to what that positional player can give you

however we know there is a relative cap for what the best kickers can give you.

and its well documented that the per game difference between the first and 12th kicker is small and that the top kicker is unlikely to repeat and in many cases was not even drafted the year before


I am gauging the individual players still available against each other, speculating between the first and 12th kicker alone might not get me where i want to be. I would cross-reference all available players against last years ppg, and then decide whether changes to the team, or the player, suggest one over the other. Historically you can track the production and see the value in being at the lead of any run, most notable TE and kicker.

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#18 WhiteWonder

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Posted 14 June 2011 - 04:00 PM

All the more of a good idea to get a player that is very solid bet to stay in the top five. And your Tony Mo, who could jump into the top ten is a gamble to do so, just like the guy that I'm likely to draft in the next round who, incidentally, is not likely to be taken before my next pick. This is the other point in this. I know some folks here will draft kicker in the 15th round, because they measure their value just above that of defenses. BUT the 14th round is where folks start grabbing them. Why would I not want to be on the front side of that?

I'll also say this. There is a 34 point difference between last year's #1 kicker and the #13 kicker (no names). On average, the difference was about two points a game. An interesting little note here: the difference in the #13 and the #24 TE is about 2 points a game. By the aforementioned logic, we should draft backup TEs this early.
But more than this, you're looking for consistency in those points, as this draft is supposed to reflect what you would need in a regular league, and not just in what amounts to a total points league. In that case, there is a purpose for taking a guy that gives you the necessary points regularly. :)


oh no Dan, your logic is fine. I totally understand wanting to be on the front end of a run and wanting to get a guy you feel for sure will be top 5, even if i think Akers has concerns (namely that Philly drafted a kicker) and you might think no one will draft your positional targets, so more power to you.

i just disagree with Rays logic. I don't think you can assign a strict 2ppg average to a player you choose here. That player could bust out and get you 10 ppg. \

the best kicker could get you 8-9 ppg but the difference between the best and 12th best kicker turns out to be marginal every year.

#19 WhiteWonder

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Posted 14 June 2011 - 04:05 PM

So why would I use a pick that could get me an extra 4-5 pts per game on a player that would likely garner less? if i am picking in round 13, I take the 7-8pt player over the 4-5 pt player..... But I also apply some logic to it, do i believe that Moeki or Heap will outscore Akers?, no way in hell does that happen....so I would absolutely take Akers over either one.


this is the wrong way to look at it.

because kicker 12 that you take in the last round will ALSO outscore the 4-5pt positional player.

i mean, i dont think it matters either way what round you decide to take your kicker in at this point. so long as you feel you are assured of some of your long shot players and no one will poach them

but if i really want Tony Moeaki and feel he is going to have a big year, why do i risk someone else snagging him? so i can take an 8ppg kicker instead of a 7ppg kicker 2 rounds later?

#20 WhiteWonder

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Posted 14 June 2011 - 04:10 PM

I understand and agree with what you're saying about filling in your starters with the best players possible including PKs but you're selling the TEs short in your example. And since you mentioned Heap (my pick)... he quietly produced the 8th best TE average last year at 7pts per game and 15th in total points even missing 3 games.

You're correct that his point production is only 2-3 points more than other TEs that can be had but you twisted your PK stats. Akers did finish at 8.9 last year but the 12th ranked PK (***) finished with 7.4 only 1.5 behind. Lindell (your example) had the 40th ranked average. I'm of course assuming everyone here takes only 1 PK but even the 24th ranked PK finished with a 6.9 average, only two points behind Akers. So if you follow your own strategy (which I did) taking Heap in the 13th (PK later) is a better point diff value versus PK now (TE later).


Well said.

Even if you actually nail the top kicker, you net yourself only 2 ppg MAX.

I'd much rather snag some position players with upside

#21 JScott

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Posted 14 June 2011 - 04:18 PM

So why would I use a pick that could get me an extra 4-5 pts per game on a player that would likely garner less? if i am picking in round 13, I take the 7-8pt player over the 4-5 pt player..... But I also apply some logic to it, do i believe that Moeki or Heap will outscore Akers?, no way in hell does that happen....so I would absolutely take Akers over either one.


Your logic is flawed. If you're talking about drafting for a flex position RB/WR/TE then yes you can compare across positions, but when we line up my stats vs your stats it's PK v. PK not PK v. TE. That's why when you make your pick you evaluate the difference in the PK I can take now versus the PK I can get next round (for example) compared to the difference in the TE I can take now versus the TE I can take next round (for example). You don't compare PK vs. TE because everyone has to have at least one of these guys in your starting lineup. So you don't compare Akers' 8.9 versus Heap's 6.9 because when the scores are compared it will be Akers' 8.9 v PK#12's 7.4 (+1.5) and TE#24's 4.9 v Heap's 6.9 (-2.0) showing Heap is the choice base on VBD. The better combo of PK and TE is PK#12 + Heap.

Here's another way to look at it. If you can take Akers (8.9) now or get a PK that you project at 8.4 next round or take Heap (6.9) now or get a TE that you project at 1.9 next round which route do you take. Just because Akers averages 2pts more than Heap is irrelevant by itself. You need to project who you can get next round at the respective position and compare the point differences between the two options.

#22 WhiteWonder

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Posted 14 June 2011 - 04:48 PM

Your logic is flawed. If you're talking about drafting for a flex position RB/WR/TE then yes you can compare across positions, but when we line up my stats vs your stats it's PK v. PK not PK v. TE. That's why when you make your pick you evaluate the difference in the PK I can take now versus the PK I can get next round (for example) compared to the difference in the TE I can take now versus the TE I can take next round (for example). You don't compare PK vs. TE because everyone has to have at least one of these guys in your starting lineup. So you don't compare Akers' 8.9 versus Heap's 6.9 because when the scores are compared it will be Akers' 8.9 v PK#12's 7.4 (+1.5) and TE#24's 4.9 v Heap's 6.9 (-2.0) showing Heap is the choice base on VBD. The better combo of PK and TE is PK#12 + Heap.

Here's another way to look at it. If you can take Akers (8.9) now or get a PK that you project at 8.4 next round or take Heap (6.9) now or get a TE that you project at 1.9 next round which route do you take. Just because Akers averages 2pts more than Heap is irrelevant by itself. You need to project who you can get next round at the respective position and compare the point differences between the two options.


/boner

#23 Dan

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Posted 14 June 2011 - 05:09 PM

Well said.

Even if you actually nail the top kicker, you net yourself only 2 ppg MAX.

I'd much rather snag some position players with upside


Actually, this is an error, especially in a league with no waiver wire. This argument presumes that the top 12 kickers will be drafted, which we know will not happen. Further to this is the fact you're discounting injury, release and displacement. Consider this: the top 12 scorers last year played every game. The top 12 per game kickers included five kickers that missed at least 2 games each. One missed 14. Another missed 9. One of those was extremely consistent once he started, and probably will be drafted because of it. But the 12 kickers drafted here in this draft will almost definitely represent a greater gap than 2 points per game, no matter how good this collection of drafters is.
You mentioned the high turnover in the top 5/10, and you're right! The same happens at most positions. This is what drives us - at those other positions - to claim the surest of the returnees to that rarefied air. Applying that same methodology to the latter parts of the draft not only nets a solid kicker (I'm not going to worry about the rookie as most of them end up kicking elsewhere), but puts other owners in that "I wonder if he holds in the top twelve" grouping.

And this paragraph is mostly because I wanted to use the word "rarefied."

#24 Ray Lewis's Limo Driver

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Posted 14 June 2011 - 05:15 PM

this is the wrong way to look at it.

because kicker 12 that you take in the last round will ALSO outscore the 4-5pt positional player.

i mean, i dont think it matters either way what round you decide to take your kicker in at this point. so long as you feel you are assured of some of your long shot players and no one will poach them

but if i really want Tony Moeaki and feel he is going to have a big year, why do i risk someone else snagging him? so i can take an 8ppg kicker instead of a 7ppg kicker 2 rounds later?


No this is the proper way to evaluate a player. You assess the individual value of that player in contrast to other players available. In this format, you take the kickers in round 13.

Where a top flight kicker who is reliably producing 7-9ppg game is available, you already have 3-4 RB's, 3-4 WR's, and a TE, you take the kicker.

if you want to speculate on a TE no one will bat an eye, but there was a suggestion earlier that the kickers are leaving too early, which is simply not true. I have no issue with Moeki being taken in round 13, and less issue with Akers being taken.

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#25 Ray Lewis's Limo Driver

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Posted 14 June 2011 - 05:16 PM

Your logic is flawed. If you're talking about drafting for a flex position RB/WR/TE then yes you can compare across positions, but when we line up my stats vs your stats it's PK v. PK not PK v. TE. That's why when you make your pick you evaluate the difference in the PK I can take now versus the PK I can get next round (for example) compared to the difference in the TE I can take now versus the TE I can take next round (for example). You don't compare PK vs. TE because everyone has to have at least one of these guys in your starting lineup. So you don't compare Akers' 8.9 versus Heap's 6.9 because when the scores are compared it will be Akers' 8.9 v PK#12's 7.4 (+1.5) and TE#24's 4.9 v Heap's 6.9 (-2.0) showing Heap is the choice base on VBD. The better combo of PK and TE is PK#12 + Heap.

Here's another way to look at it. If you can take Akers (8.9) now or get a PK that you project at 8.4 next round or take Heap (6.9) now or get a TE that you project at 1.9 next round which route do you take. Just because Akers averages 2pts more than Heap is irrelevant by itself. You need to project who you can get next round at the respective position and compare the point differences between the two options.


No, its just elevated.

Experience has shown that over investment in players "expected to have a big year" is pure folly. I can get another Moeki or Heap in another two rounds, no problem.....I cannot get the likes and production of Akers in another two rounds.

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#26 Ray Lewis's Limo Driver

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Posted 14 June 2011 - 05:18 PM

For now let's agree to disagree rather than labor over this topic. But for fun, lets look back over round 13-16 as the season (hopefully) progresses and try to measure the values as they emerge.

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#27 JScott

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Posted 14 June 2011 - 05:22 PM

No, its just elevated.

Experience has shown that over investment in players "expected to have a big year" is pure folly. I can get another Moeki or Heap in another two rounds, no problem.....I cannot get the likes and production of Akers in another two rounds.


That's not what I'm debating. If you feel that production from Moeaki v. the #24 TE you can get two rounds later is negligible but the difference between Akers and the #12 PK you could get two rounds later is substantial then I agree with you take the PK now. I'm just discussing how to Value Base Draft (which is what you're saying too) but I just felt your example of Akers v. the #40 PK was skewed, that's all. And that in VBD you don't evaluate PKs v TEs, you evaluate the difference between two PKs versus the difference between two TEs (or whatever other position).

#28 JScott

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Posted 14 June 2011 - 05:24 PM

For now let's agree to disagree rather than labor over this topic. But for fun, lets look back over round 13-16 as the season (hopefully) progresses and try to measure the values as they emerge.


Sure :thumbsup:

#29 robb

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Posted 14 June 2011 - 05:30 PM

No, its just elevated.

Experience has shown that over investment in players "expected to have a big year" is pure folly. I can get another Moeki or Heap in another two rounds, no problem.....I cannot get the likes and production of Akers in another two rounds.


Is Akers even gauranteed to be kicking this year?

#30 Ray Lewis's Limo Driver

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Posted 14 June 2011 - 05:32 PM

Is Akers even gauranteed to be kicking this year?


I had not heard anything to suggest he would not, have you read or heard something on him? :huh:

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#31 robb

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Posted 14 June 2011 - 05:35 PM

Make your pick....I only have 5 minutes before I am gone. Then, I will research and see. Thanks

#32 WhiteWonder

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Posted 14 June 2011 - 05:45 PM

its anyones perogative to take their kicker now if they want to secure a certain player, but as for me I'll take the positional player who has no cap to their potential fantasy scoring. The top kicker will never score more than 8-9 ppg.. Why select a capped player in round 13?

No, its just elevated.

Experience has shown that over investment in players "expected to have a big year" is pure folly. I can get another Moeki or Heap in another two rounds, no problem.....I cannot get the likes and production of Akers in another two rounds.


but maybe you can't get another Moeki. If Moeki or any player is someone you have targetted and you have a conviction about, then you get them.

you most certainly can find Akers like production at kicker 2 rounds from now. Considering Akers is unlikely to repeat as the top fantasy kicker anyway.

#33 WhiteWonder

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Posted 14 June 2011 - 05:47 PM

I had not heard anything to suggest he would not, have you read or heard something on him? :huh:


the Eagles drafted a kicker this year. I doubt he unseats Akers this season but I think some are shung away from him due to this factor.

#34 WhiteWonder

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Posted 14 June 2011 - 05:50 PM

For now let's agree to disagree rather than labor over this topic. But for fun, lets look back over round 13-16 as the season (hopefully) progresses and try to measure the values as they emerge.


we can certainly do that but ill tell you right now, only 2 things need to happen to validate my feelings on this topic.

1. have any positional player drafted in these rounds emerge as a big time value

2. have a few kickers drafted in round 15 or 16 (or undrafted) score close to or more than Akers/Crosby.


... also fwiw i simply enjoy debates like this. :cheers:

#35 Dan

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Posted 14 June 2011 - 05:51 PM

Considering Akers is unlikely to repeat as the top fantasy kicker anyway.


Absolutely won't . . . he wasn't the top in 2010. :D

#36 WhiteWonder

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Posted 14 June 2011 - 05:52 PM

Absolutely won't . . . he wasn't the top in 2010. :D


touche! :overhead:

#37 remote controller

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Posted 14 June 2011 - 06:11 PM

Wow! I didn't miss a thing on this page other than an explanation for why only one pick was ,made after mine.......and my kickers are still on the board! :thumbsup:
--If your IQ were two points higher, you'd be a brick!--

#38 WhiteWonder

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Posted 14 June 2011 - 06:15 PM

Wow! I didn't miss a thing on this page other than an explanation for why only one pick was ,made after mine.......and my kickers are still on the board! :thumbsup:


stop interrupting kicker talk

#39 JScott

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Posted 14 June 2011 - 06:48 PM

Uh Ray, you did know you were OTC during this whole discussion, right? :huh:

#40 Dan

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Posted 14 June 2011 - 07:08 PM

Wow! I didn't miss a thing on this page other than an explanation for why only one pick was ,made after mine.......and my kickers are still on the board! :thumbsup:


You realize that Gary Anderson retired last year, right?