136 replies to this topic

[Axe Elf]

I kind of hate to post these a day early, because there are so many pseudo-injury situations that are still a little uncertain. I think most of the situations affecting guys on my list this week are pretty settled, though, so I'll take my chances.

Here you go again, learning what most people won't know until the following Tuesday, on the previous Friday. You don't even need a GED to attend this institution of higher learning; all it takes is a desire to win. Class is now in session.


QBs

Sleepers

Andy Dalton
The Bengals, who have been surprisingly good in their first two road games, make their home debut this Sunday against San Francisco, whose secondary was torched by a QB with one lung and a WR with no counterpart last week. San Francisco does have a decent run defense, so the Bengals will have to rely on an inexperienced, but promising passing attack. I'm feeling 325/3 from the OTHER upstart rookie QB of 2011.

Matt Hasselbeck
Denver is the team that allowed Dalton over 300 yards in his first full game last week (332, to be exact), and they should allow Hasselbeck, who hung 358 on Baltimore, to do the same. Look for 300/2.

Tarvaris Jackson
He was terrible at San Francisco--21 of 37 (57%), 5.3 yards per attempt, he fumbled three times and lost two, and he had an interception, for a QBR of 78.3. He improved at Pittsburgh--20 of 29 (69%), 5.5 yards per attempt, and no turnovers for a QBR of 82.4. This week, in his home opener vs. Arizona--the team that allowed 422 yards to Cam Newton and 291 yards to Rex Grossman--I don't think he will set the world on fire. Well, what did you expect me to say? It's still Tarvaris Jackson, you know. But Pete Carroll seems determined to throw the ball three times more than he runs it, Sidney Rice should be back in the lineup, and if all you have at QB is Donovan McNabb, Luke McCown, and one or the other of the Manning brothers, you could probly use the 250/2 out of Tarvaris this week.


Stinkers

Kyle Orton
Tennessee has yet to allow an opposing QB to reach 200 yards passing. They have allowed 1 TD through the air, and have 2 INTs. Orton did not reach 200 himself last week against Cincinnati, and it seems like half of Denver's skill players are dinged up one way or another. Playing on the road for the first time, Orton should feel blessed if he gets 175/1.

Sam Bradford
The Baltimore D was probly a little embarrassed to be lit up by Matt Hasselbeck, of all people, last week. The Rams' offense, already off to a shaky start, will probly feel the brunt of their refocused efforts. Despite having to throw the ball a lot, I can't see Bradford going much over 200/1.

Drew Brees
When you pick a QB like Brees as a stinker, it has to be relative to his usual success. Brees has almost 700 yards in two games, and 6 TDs. But Houston has yet to allow an opposing QB to have more than 200 yards and 1 TD, so expect a compromise here: 250/2. Yes, what stinks for Drew is a career day for Tarvaris.

There are a lot of other QBs screaming to be on the "avoid" list this week, but I would surely be criticized for including such obvious stinkers as Blaine Gabbert, Donovan McNabb, Jason Campbell, Matt Cassell, and Kerry Collins. Some people might be considering a start for Eli Manning vs Philadelphia or Tony Romo vs Washington--don't--and in case you haven't figured out Josh Freeman yet, he's good for 200/1 most every week including this week against Atlanta.


RBs

Sleepers

Daniel Thomas
Perhaps he's not much of a sleeper any more, after a nice debut against a reasonable defense, but Cleveland has had NO success stopping Cedric Benson or Joseph Addai. Thomas should keep up the good work in week 2--and this time he finds the end zone. Move over Darren Sproles and Jordy Nelson, here's 120/1 for yet another K-State alum who's making the big time in 2011.

Ryan Mathews
How can you NOT call any RB that faces Kansas City a must-start? Mathews is a similar pass-catching RB to Jahvid Best, and Best put up 123 combined yards and 2 TDs last week. Tolbert may cut that TD total in half for Mathews, but I expect he will still get loose for a combined 100/1 against the Chiefs.

Benjarvus Green-Ellis
Buffalo can be run against, as they proved last week allowing Oakland 3 rushing TDs on 131 rushing yards. Even allowing Kansas City to rack up 108 rushing yards--while playing from behind all game--is nothing to be proud of. The Law Firm's secretary reports that he has a TD in each game so far this year, and he did well in both Buffalo games last season--the week 3 meeting was BJGE's breakout game, posting 98/1, and he had his second 100-yard game of the season against Buffalo in week 16 (104). He has a little more competition in the backfield this season, but he should still be good for 80 yards and a TD.

Roy Helu
Even with Tim Hightower accumulating 106 yards against Arizona, Helu stepped up in relief to the tune of 114 yards on 13 touches. His combination of size, speed, and yards per touch can't be ignored, and Hightower owners have genuine cause for concern. The Dallas run defense has been pretty good so far, and I don't expect Helu to take a majority of the snaps just yet, but even in a relief role, he could be good for about 80 combined yards.

Isaac Redman
Rashard Mendenhall has been averaging 3.6 ypc on 31 carries this season. Isaac Redman is averaging 4.7 ypc and got 10 carries for 49 yards and a TD last week alone. I expect him to get more like 15 carries against Indianapolis--heck, the Steelers might give their waterboy a few carries against Indianapolis--and should therefore be worth about 70 yards. I don't know that he will supplant Mendenhall as the primary goalline back any time soon, but like Hightower owners, Mendenhall owners have cause for concern.


Stinkers

Beanie Wells
Well, now he's supposedly dinged his hamstring, but I was gonna call him a stinker even before that, and since it looks like he will still play, I'll still call him a stinker. Seattle's run defense is part of why Mendenhall owners have cause for concern, and part of why Frank Gore is off to such a slow start this year. Expect a baby Beanie (did you see what I did there?) performance of 40 yards and no TDs this week.

Cedric Benson
As mentioned before, San Francisco's run defense has been pretty solid too. I think they can manage a pedestrian back like Benson, who could perform like he's already suspended--no more than 60 yards and no score.

Adrian Peterson
Peterson has historically feasted on the Lions' defense (a combined 385/5 in the first 3 meetings of 2009 and 2010). He fared a great deal worse in week 17 last season (14 carries for 31 yards and no TD). The Lions' D appears to be for real so far this season as well. So do you bench Peterson? Probly not, but don't expect #1 overall draft pick numbers from him this week; I'll say 85/1.

LeSean McCoy
Although the Giants' secondary bears more than a passing resemblance to Swiss cheese, their run defense has been more than passable, holding Tim Hightower to 2.9 yards per carry and Cadillac Williams to 2.8. McCoy's ability to add receiving yards is kind of a wild card here, but I believe the Giants can still hold him to his lowest performance of the young season so far. If McCoy gets his usual 15 carries (+/-3), that puts him in the range of about 80 combined yards--but a TD is always possible.


WRs

Sleepers

AJ Green
See Andy Dalton. I don't usually like rookie WRs, but this one appears to be a Newtonian-like prodigy. With Simpson out of the lineup, I like him for 11 catches, 135 yards, and a score.

Nate Washington
He's quietly been putting together pretty decent games in the shadow of Kenny Britt--6/67 and 7/99--but no score so far. I'll put him in the end zone this week against the Broncos, with 7 catches for 100 yards.

Sidney Rice
See Tarvaris Jackson. Pete Carroll wants him to throw, now at least he has someone with more than 50 career receptions to throw to. I'm not going to get overly excited, but if Doug Freaking Baldwin can go 4/83/1 for the Seahawks, Rice can go 5/90/1--even in his first week back from injury.

Brandon LaFell
This may be your last week to get him cheap. As a second-year player, he is emerging as Cam Newton's clear #2 target, and as defenses become more aggressive in stopping Steve Smith, this could be a very lucrative role indeed. I'm calling him a sleeper this week, but I think he offers a lot of upside for the season going forward as well--this week's David Nelson, if you will. He catches everything thrown to him, and he's already well worth a roster spot as the 50th WR in receptions (8, on 10 targets) and the 44th WR in yardage (119), with 1 TD in the first two weeks. I could see him ending the season in the top 30, if the Carolina offense keeps rolling along. I'm going to call for a slight increase this week, 5 receptions for 70 yards and a score.

Andre Caldwell
See Andy Dalton. Now that they have added a Simpson wing at Leavenworth (say "hi" to OJ for me), Caldwell will step in and get a piece of the action against San Francisco. It's not like he's unfamiliar with the offense; he had 3 catches for 27 yards and a TD last week. Double that this week (well, except for the TD)--6 for 60 and a TD.

Mike Sims-Walker
While Denario Alexander had more yards, MSW emerged as Bradford's favorite target with 50% more receptions than anyone else on the team in the loss to the Giants. While I don't see Bradford going crazy in this one, MSW should again lead the team in receptions--and this time in yards as well: 7/80/0.


Stinkers

Hakeem Nicks
Recently-injured WR, meet amazing secondary. Hello, another 4/40 day, goodbye TD.

Dwayne Bowe
I'll probly regret calling him a stinker--again--but man, the Chiefs are just so darn pathetic, and San Diego's pass defense has been dominant against every QB not named Brady so far. I don't know who else they can give the ball to, though, so I'll give him 4 receptions for 50 yards, but no score.

Eric Decker
See Kyle Orton. The Tennessee pass defense won't be as accommodating as Cincinnati's was, and even though Royal is out, it appears that Lloyd will be back to soak up the lion's share of the receptions and yardage. Decker will still get some looks, but he's not going to be the panacea in week 3 that he was in week 2. This wild sleeper becomes a mild stinker at 5/60/0.

Brandon Marshall
The Browns' pass defense held AJ Green in check through most of week 1 (one late catch for a 41 yard TD), and held Wayne in check through most of week 2 (4/66/0). I'm expecting them to put the clampdown on Brandon Marshall through most of week 3, who already scores about as often as a 300 lb woman who uses flounder for deodorant. 5/70/0 for Marshall this week.


TEs

Sleepers

Fred Davis
Is he still a sleeper? Probly oughta start him, just in case--5/80/TD.

Jermaine Gresham
Andy Dalton, party of four! What the heck, give Gresham a seat at the dinner table as well, with 4/50/TD.

Evan Moore
The Dolphins have allowed 3 TDs to 3 different TEs over the course of their first two games; Evan Moore has scored a TD in each of his first two games. Sometimes these picks are just too easy. 3/40/TD.

Jeff King
He has 4 catches in two weeks--for 98 yards and 2 TDs. What? Ok, I'll bite. Sneak him into the end zone one more time against Seattle: 2/30/TD.


Stinkers

Jimmy Graham
Houston has allowed just 4 catches for 39 yards (and no scores) to TEs so far--and that includes Dallas Clark. In fact, that was ALL Dallas Clark. (Does Miami even have a TE?) They will keep Graham out of the end zone again, though he equals Clark's production of 4 catches for 40 yards, no TD.

Marcedes Lewis
In case you were encouraged by the news of his return to practice, this may be a good week for his calf to get healthy, but with a week off and a new QB, it's not a good week for his fantasy numbers to get healthy. He may get some dump-off targets though, in the absence of any other real receiving threats on the team--4/50/0.

Jason Witten
Washington has a decent pass defense, and they won't really need to cover anyone else. Throw in a banged-up Romo and this doesn't look like a career day for Witten, but then, the Cowboys don't really have anyone else to throw to, either--6 catches for 60 yards, no TD.


I guess I got a little carried away. I usually try to get 3-4 picks in each category, but I have 5 RB sleepers and 6 WR sleepers this week. I don't really know who I would cut out though; they all deserve to be mentioned. I suppose someone will argue (on Monday, of course) that picks like AJ Green were "obvious," but if you don't count the five most obvious QB stinkers, that's 35 pearls of wisdom for you to cast before the swine in your leagues this week.

Class is dismissed; please clap the erasers and turn out the lights before leaving the classroom.

[montana]

I forgot my pennnnnnnnncil.

[Bobbyn2022]

Axe Elf I'm a huge fan. Shone Green vs Oakland or Ben Jarvis vs Buff? Also Fred Davis vs Cowboys or Vernon Davis vs Cinn???

[clarkevii]

Axe Elf

U are the man. Love your picks

But

Nicks WILL do damage this week

[Matt Mueller]

Starting Moore, Hernandez owner.

Starting Green. Considering benching Nicks for David Nelson.

Hope you are right.

[Axe Elf]

Axe Elf I'm a huge fan. Shone Green vs Oakland or Ben Jarvis vs Buff? Also Fred Davis vs Cowboys or Vernon Davis vs Cinn???

I just gave you numbers for BenJarvus Green-Ellis and Fred Davis. So do you think that Shonn Greene or Vernon Davis will get more than 80 and a TD? (Hint: Shonn Greene has only one career regular season game in excess of 80/TD--Week 7 of 2009--and Vernon Davis has gone for a combined 65/0 in two games so far this season--however, he did reach the 80/1 benchmark three times in 2010.)

[Axe Elf]

Nicks WILL do damage this week

To his knee, maybe...

[Bones40]

What's your take on Mike Williams (TB)? The guy is killing me. I have Nate Washington and David Nelson penciled in as starting ahead of him with Austin and Colston out. I'm thinking I like both the matchups for Nate Washington and David Nelson...but I would hate to miss out on Mike Williams returning to form.

Oh, and it's a PPR league.

[Shuttemdown41]

Sign me up for the cult following of the genius that is Axe Elf!!

Now, some help kind sir:

1. Ochocinco or Decker for WR3?

2. A banged up Felix Jones or a demoted Reggie Bush?

3. Pick 2 from Dez, Burleson and Rice please (already have Megatron penciled in at WR1, need WR2 and 3 from this bunch).

Guide me to victory oh great one!

[AintNoStoppinMeNow]

Axe Elf, I've started enjoying and actually looking forward to these weekly posts from you. One suggestion though...could you start adding at least one D/ST to this list as well? Thanks.

[TimHauck]

I thought we agreed that third round draft picks in most drafts aren't considered sleepers? (Mathews and Green-Ellis this time). I think this was mentioned before, but perhaps a better name for these posts is "Start 'em or Sit 'em" rather than "Sleepers and Stinkers.

But it boggles my mind how you can almost consider Daniel Thomas and AJ Green as "too obvious" but Mathews and Green-Ellis (against the Chiefs and Bills, no less) are not...

Decent analysis though, but perhaps I will take the advice from one of the other threads and just not read any of your further posts in this thread.

[Axe Elf]

But it boggles my mind how you can almost consider Daniel Thomas and AJ Green as "too obvious" but Mathews and Green-Ellis (against the Chiefs and Bills, no less) are not...

Well, I never know what you people are going to consider "obvious." Last week, Newton was an "obvious" pick (by Monday, anyway). BJGE has similar stats on the year so far as Brandon LaFell (109/2 vs 119/1), so there might be some people out there that wouldn't consider him such an "obvious" start this week. But if he IS obvious, then isn't LaFell obvious too?

Heck, it's ALL obvious to me. I'm just passing it on to you.

[Axe Elf]

could you start adding at least one D/ST to this list as well?

No, because D/STs are wildly inconsistent, frequently random, and largely irrelevant.

[Matt Mueller]

Nicks or Nelson?

Who would your Axe from your lineup?

Also .5 ppr

Greg Olsen, Felix, McGahee or Harvin at flex?

[KojackDaniels]

Should my next cocktail be shaken or stirred?

[Axe Elf]

What's your take on Mike Williams (TB)?

If, by "returning to form," you mean he has positive yardage instead of negative yardage this week, then yeah, chances are pretty good of that happening. But if you overvalued him this season (and if he's on your team, you probly did), then you also need to temper your expectations of Mike Williams at his best. Keep in mind that he is a 2nd year WR who was held under 70 yards in eleven games last season--he just became Freeman's goalline go-to guy, and that made him a bit of a fantasy darling with 11 TDs. Blount and Graham combined for only 7 TDs last year, so they will probly get more goalline touches this season, which will eat into Williams' value. Also keep in mind that Freeman doesn't usually do much more than 200 yards and a TD--so that has to factor into your assessment of any WR on his team as well.

My take on Williams is that he is a chancy WR3-type guy, getting you 40/0 half the time and 70/1 in six or seven weeks--and then a game or two where he goes over 100 and scores a couple of times by accident. If he has one of those games soon, you might be able to trade him away and save yourself the headaches that week 2 exemplified.

For this week, roll with Nelson and Washington.

[Axe Elf]

1. Ochocinco or Decker for WR3?

2. A banged up Felix Jones or a demoted Reggie Bush?

3. Pick 2 from Dez, Burleson and Rice please (already have Megatron penciled in at WR1, need WR2 and 3 from this bunch).

1. I know I just called Decker a stinker, but "85" only has 3 catches for 60 yards on the season so far. Could he improve with Hernandez out, against a mediocre Buffalo secondary? Sure... but I think Decker is still the more reliable option here.

2. Bush is kinda banged up too, ya know. The word as of now is that Felix won't miss any playing time, so I'd go with him--but keep an eye on DeMarco Murray--he could be one of next week's sleepers if Jones aggravates the shoulder.

3. That said, Dez dressed for practice today, but did not participate. If he plays on Sunday, he likely won't be 100%, his QB likely won't be 100%, and Washington has a pretty decent pass defense. I think I would pass on Bryant this week and go with Burleson and Rice--but if you just can't bench Bryant, then give Rice another week to see if he's really back to 100% himself. I see the dilemma of starting both Megatron and Burleson, but I can't really see much upside to starting both Dez and Rice behind him, either.

[Axe Elf]

Nicks or Nelson?

Do you people even read my posts? I just called Nicks a stinker--4/40/0. Nelson will double that, at a minimum.

Also .5 ppr

Greg Olsen, Felix, McGahee or Harvin at flex?

With Moreno likely still limited, I'd choose McGahee.

[Axe Elf]

Should my next cocktail be shaken or stirred?

That, of course, depends on the cocktail.

[Mack 1]

Dwayne Bowe
...San Diego's pass defense has been dominant against every QB not named Brady so far...

Uh...that leaves just McNabb. But point well taken.

[Axe Elf]

Uh...that leaves just McNabb.

Nothing gets by you.

[DexterMorgan]

85 and a touch a stinker?

[Axe Elf]

85 and a touch a stinker?

Yeah, you read the part where he has 385/5 against them in three of his last four meetings, right? Sometimes these things are relative.

[Citi Kid]

Thanks for your insight Axe, always enjoyable.

You have me thinking now on Nelson, who I snagged off waivers last week.

We dress 2 WR and have Roddy in the #1 spot....

so.....D. Henderson or Nelson?? Non PPR

[Axe Elf]

D. Henderson or Nelson??

If it was me, I'd start Nelson, because the Saints' WRs are not known for consistency, and Houston's pass defense is pretty respectable, while Nelson has a great opportunity this week with Johnson's groin bothering him and the New England secondary surrendering a LOT of yardage to WRs already. That said, Henderson has been Brees' most reliable target thus far, so you might not lose much starting him--but I think you do lose.

[FeelingMN]

My take on Williams is that he is a chancy WR3-type guy, getting you 40/0 half the time and 70/1 in six or seven weeks--and then a game or two where he goes over 100 and scores a couple of times by accident. If he has one of those games soon, you might be able to trade him away and save yourself the headaches that week 2 exemplified.

That'd be ~ 140 points...which would have been top 20 in my league last year....right around Fitz/Manningham.

[Axe Elf]

That'd be ~ 140 points...which would have been top 20 in my league last year....right around Fitz/Manningham.

Yeah, it was top 20 in everyone's league last year, and his ~ 160 was good for 13th last year--that's why people overvalued him this year. People have a tendency to look at the final numbers, instead of how those numbers were amassed. If you drafted him to have those few good weeks and you can tolerate him pulling down 40/0 for you half the time, then that's what you got. If you drafted him to be a consistently solid WR week in and week out, you're bound to be a little disappointed with weeks like week 2.

[FeelingMN]

People have a tendency to look at the final numbers, instead of how those numbers were amassed.

140 points over 15 weeks averages to 9.3 pts/week. Of course you'd like that consistency every week....but that doesn't happen in FF.

Regardless of the peaks and valleys, you say to expect Williams to drop 13+ for half the season, that's just not chancy WR3 production.

[Axe Elf]

you say to expect Williams to drop 13+ for half the season

Well, I said for a third of the season, and I do regard the peaks and valleys. I guess you and I just have different ideas of what we want from a WR3 in the other two-thirds of the season when he's dropping 4s.

[nikki2200]

Well, I said for a third of the season, and I do regard the peaks and valleys. I guess you and I just have different ideas of what we want from a WR3 in the other two-thirds of the season when he's dropping 4s.

VJax only scored me 5 points in Week 1. Does that mean he's a chancy WR3-type guy?

[Axe Elf]

VJax only scored me 5 points in Week 1. Does that mean he's a chancy WR3-type guy?

No. Ask me again if he does it seven more times.

[jackjohn]

Hey Axe, I like your input and really appreciate that you give reasons for your choices. That being said, I'd like your opinion. WR 1 is megatron and #2 is Austin. Seeing as Austin is out my backups are: Plax vs Oak, L. Moore vs Hou and Ocho vs Buf. Thinking Plax, as Ocho may have upside, but I have Gronk going. Your opinion?

[oldspice dwarf]

Hey Axe, I like your input and really appreciate that you give reasons for your choices. That being said, I'd like your opinion. WR 1 is megatron and #2 is Austin. Seeing as Austin is out my backups are: Plax vs Oak, L. Moore vs Hou and Ocho vs Buf. Thinking Plax, as Ocho may have upside, but I have Gronk going. Your opinion?

Forget his opinion, you don't want the axe elf, you want the oldspice dwarf (oldspice smells better, and dwarves clearly kick elves' asses). Plax is going to remain inconsistent until at least mid-season (if he is ever consistent again) and Sanchez clearly prefers to throw to Keller and Holmes. Ocho is not a Brady favorite yet (and probably never will be) and even with Hernandez out, there are too many targets there to count on 85. Lance Moore on the other hand, should be fully healthy this week, and with Colston out is the best and most consistent receiving option on the team. Go for Moore.

[Axe Elf]

Thinking Plax

You are correct; Plax is the play.

"Burress figures to get more opportunities this week. The Jaguars played a lot of Cover-2, guarding the outside closely but leaving space over the middle for tight end Dustin Keller, who had six catches, including a touchdown. Jacksonville often rolled its coverage toward the 6-5 Burress, who was targeted only twice in that game.

"Oakland, however, primarily has been a man-to-man coverage team as long as Al Davis has been in charge, and that philosophy doesn't figure to change this week.

"'If you're a wide receiver,' Burress said, 'these are the kind of games you love to play in. It's up close and personal, man-to-man, mano-a-mano, to see who is the better guy. I've played in these games before, they're fun and competitive.'

Sanchez said, 'He could have some opportunities if we see a lot of man-to-man this week,' but Sanchez also said he'll do 'whatever the game dictates.'"

--from the Jets Team Report

[IGotWorms]

Yeah, it was top 20 in everyone's league last year, and his ~ 160 was good for 13th last year--that's why people overvalued him this year. People have a tendency to look at the final numbers, instead of how those numbers were amassed. If you drafted him to have those few good weeks and you can tolerate him pulling down 40/0 for you half the time, then that's what you got. If you drafted him to be a consistently solid WR week in and week out, you're bound to be a little disappointed with weeks like week 2.

I don't know about that. Dude had pretty consistent production week in and week out last year. I wasn't high on him this year because I think what we saw last year was pretty much the ceiling on what he can do (even though it was his rookie year), but to say that he was inconsistent is just flat wrong.

[prancers]

No. Ask me again if he does it seven more times.

How were VJax's #s last season? Seems to me like he's had 2 good games total combining this season and last and has always been a hit or miss guy. He's had as many terrible weeks as Tampa Mike has in 1/3rd the games played.

Also, Mike Williams had a TD disallowed last week due to an illegal motion penalty. It would have been his 13th TD in 18 career games. Maybe the guy is just good at catching TDs? That's certainly what it looks like to me when I watch him play...

When you start taking out the good games and nit-picking over consistency, almost every player you look at it doesn't look so good. Williams has scored a TD in 11 of the 18 games he has played in for his career (Should have been 12/18 but for the penalty). Not sure where you're seeing so many 40/0 TD games....

[Axe Elf]

I don't know about that. Dude had pretty consistent production week in and week out last year. I wasn't high on him this year because I think what we saw last year was pretty much the ceiling on what he can do (even though it was his rookie year), but to say that he was inconsistent is just flat wrong.

Well, that's part of what I was saying--that last year was kind of a ceiling, at least compared to this year. But his "consistency" was largely a product of scoring in 10 of 16 weeks; if he scores in 8 this year, some of that consistency goes bye-bye.

Here is Williams' "consistency":

Week 1: 9 pts
Week 2: 11 pts
Week 3: 5 pts
Week 5: 15 pts
Week 6: 4 pts
Week 7: 8 pts
Week 8: 16 pts
Week 9: 8 pts
Week 10: 6 pts
Week 11: 11 pts
Week 12: 2 pts
Week 13: 12 pts
Week 14: 1 pt
Week 15: 15 pts
Week 16: 16 pts
Week 17: 10 pts

2011:
Week 1: 11 pts
Week 2: 0 pts

Choose a couple of those 9-12 pt weeks in 2010, and take away a TD, and you're looking at 2011--under 10 pts in at least 11 weeks.

[Axe Elf]

How were VJax's #s last season?

He sat out until the middle of December. Understandably, they were not so good.

Williams has scored a TD in 11 of the 18 games he has played in for his career. Not sure where you're seeing so many 40/0 TD games.

In the other 7, plus 2 this season for TDs vultured by Graham and Blount.

Maybe the guy is just good at catching TDs?

That's exactly the problem.

[IGotWorms]

Choose a couple of those 9-12 pt weeks in 2010, and take away a TD, and you're looking at 2011--under 10 pts in at least 11 weeks.

Why would you take away the TDs. He did score them, didn't he?

[Axe Elf]

Why would you take away the TDs. He did score them, didn't he?

Last year, yes. Projecting for this year, I think you have to allow for Graham and Blount taking away a couple of them. You have been reading this thread, haven't you?