Posted 11 March 2012 - 03:07 PM
Final 2012 tournament projection (auto bids in bold)
One bid conferences (20) - Vermont, Belmont, Montana, UNC Asheville, Long Beach St, Virginia Commonwealth, Detroit, Harvard, Loyola, Akron, Norfolk St, LIU Brooklyn, Murray St, Lehigh, Davidson, Lamar, South Dakota St, Western Kentucky, Mississippi Valley St, New Mexico St
ACC (5) - Duke, North Carolina, Florida St, Virginia, North Carolina St
A-10 (4) - Temple, Saint Louis, St. Bonaventure, Xavier
Big East (9) - Syracuse, Marquette, Georgetown, Louisville, Notre Dame, Cincinnati, Connecticut, West Virginia, South Florida
Big Ten (6)- Michigan St, Ohio St, Michigan, Indiana, Wisconsin, Purdue
Big 12 (6) - Kansas, Missouri, Baylor, Iowa St, Kansas St, Texas
C-USA (2) - Memphis, Southern Miss
MVC (2) - Wichita St, Creighton
MWC (4) - San Diego St, UNLV, New Mexico, Colorado St
Pac-12 (3) - California, Washington, Colorado
SEC (4) - Kentucky, Florida, Vanderbilt, Alabama
WCC (3) - Saint Mary's, Gonzaga, BYU
Last four in: BYU, North Carolina St, South Florida, Washington
First four out: Seton Hall, Drexel, Miami (FL), Mississippi St
#1 Seeds: Kentucky, Syracuse, North Carolina, Michigan St
#2 Seeds: Kansas, Missouri, Ohio St, Duke
#3 Seeds: Baylor, Florida St, Marquette, Michigan
#4 Seeds: Georgetown, Vanderbilt, Indiana, Wisconsin
- I am not giving the committee much credit in predicting a Washington at-large bid. Based on resume, the Huskies would be behind several teams who are outside the field, but I will not buy the committee leaving out a big six conference champ until I see it.
- Michigan could easily be busted down to a 4 seed given their horrible performance vs Ohio St yesterday combined with their poor road record (6-6, only one top 50 road win, losses at Iowa and Arkansas) but Georgetown failed to make any noise in the Big East tournament.
- After thinking it over, the way the Big Ten scenario has played out, with Ohio St and Michigan St being so interchangeable, I am going to say that the committee will have set up the brackets this afternoon in a way that allows them to plug in the winner as the final #1 and the loser as a #2. In addition, the Spartans have not skipped a beat despite the loss of Dawson, so it is hard for the committee to punish their seed due to his injury. As such, I have moved Michigan St into the last #1 seed.
Here is my wild guess for the protected seeds by region:
East - Syracuse, Duke, Michigan, Georgetown
South - Kentucky, Missouri, Florida St, Wisconsin
Midwest - North Carolina, Ohio St, Baylor, Indiana
West - Michigan St, Kansas, Marquette, Vanderbilt
And another fun game come selection time...what will be the biggest 'WTF' moment? Contenders:
- Washington not only getting in, but getting a 9 or 10 seed
- Florida St jumping all the way up to a 2 seed (two wins over UNC and Duke)
- Mississippi St as this year's version of 2011 Georgia (aka, the team that went from doubtful for a bid to actually getting an 8 or a 9)
Vote Giant Meteor 2016 - "Just end it already"