27 replies to this topic

[Mike FF Today]

Here's Dave's early look at top 12 QBs with commentary. An abbreviated list for RBs and WRs will be along soon.

Top 12 QBs for 2012

[Matt Mueller]

I support Stafford at 4 over Cam. That 4/5 position seems to be heavily debated.


Besides the wild card spot of 12, Freeman, there really isn't a bad first qb option on the board.


**Prediction Dalton jumps into the top 12 this year. I'd feel better about him as a qb 1 than Freeman if I had to pick today.

[madd futher mucker]

The guy I'm devaluing from your list is Vick. Tghis is in part because of the news today that LT Jason Peters will undergo surgery for a ruptured Achilles suffered in a recent workout. Peters is perhaps the team's most valuable player outside of Vick and is likely to miss the entire 2012 season. Fortuantely Vick is left handed so at least he will see the rush coming from what otherwise would be his backside, but Vick is 31 now, and more prone to injury. The Eagles were hoping to make him less exposed as a QB this year.

[jtimko]

I agree with the list, although I'd be very nervous about Rivers. Romo seems like he might be more consistent. I'm thinking I won't be able to grab Stafford in the 7th this year...sigh.

[nobody]

10. Peyton Manning, Broncos – Broncos are sure to add to their offense but at this point they are missing a slot receiver and a running back capable of making big plays in the passing game. Check back later on this one.

They signed Andre Caldwell and Jacob Tamme last week. I'd probably rank Manning 5th.

[Pecos Rattlers]

I'd drop Vick a bit as well. OL injury aside, he missed 3 games last year due to injury and that dropped him down to 12th QB, so I don't see him at 6th if he misses 2.

Lots of guys I'd take over Freeman as well. Sanchez would be a nice gutsy pick for top 12. He was 10th last year & should only get better ... if Timsanity doesn't take over.

[Muggleborn]

1. Rodgers - without a doubt has established himself as the king of this hill and there is no reason to think there will be a change next year barring the unexpected

2. Brees - I'm still not clear on the factual basis for the Payton suspension other than it occurred on his watch. If anything Brees strikes me as the type to use it as a rallying cry much like the team did after Katrina.

3. Stafford - Ok, I'm going a bit homer with this one and I'm not ashamed to admit it.

4. Brady - Having Lloyd on my fantasy roster I admit this will be good but not enough to bump Brady up farther than #4 and I suspect there will be at least 1 or 2 up and comers ahead of him by seasons end.

5. Smith - He pleasantly surprised me this year doing better than I thought but I think he has the surrounding talent and enough ability to continue producing.

6. Schaub - IF he returns and can continue to play at the level he has in the past I see him being in this mix but I admit I may be expecting to much to soon from him as he makes his way back.

7. Romo - There is still enough talent surrounding him to make him dangerous... at least until postseason play is at stake.

8. Newton - Love the kid but call it the sophomore jinx or simply breaking onto the scene with such a splash that he just can't help but has some disappointment this year. It will help him if they could acquire a legitimate compliment to Smith at the WR position.

9. Manning, E - Can't argue with this guys results anymore. He may not always look pretty doing it but he has come a long way from a snot nosed kid who wanted to pick where he played.

10. Rivers - I have been impressed with this guy since he came into the league and since he has worked with some subpar talent at WR in the past I am confident he will rebound from this past season and put up numbers similar to his previous work.

11. Flynn - Not only do I see him winning the starting position but with a healthy Rice will make the supporting players more effective and bump the team up to a .500+ season.

12. Vick - I am reluctant to do it but there is to much talent on the Eagle team to not expect everyone to rebound from last year.

Honorable Mentions

a. Freeman - TB is another team that should be able to mount some type of a rebound next year and to do so it will be largely because they have more firepower on offense.

b. Manning, P - He may still be great but his surrounding cast at this point is not. Tamme/Thomas are promising at TE but Demaryius is not Marvin Harrison/Reggie Wayne. I like Decker as a possible safety valve receiver but it is a bit much for me to think the promise will all come together this year.

[mobb_deep]

QB position seems really deep this year. I'd be happy with any of those sans Freeman as a #1.

[Matt Mueller]

I wouldn't necessarily rank them this way but when I'm drafting I'll take any of the Ryan/Rivers/Romo/E. Manning tier over Peyton or Vick.

Too much injury risk associated with both for my liking.

[Matt Mueller]

1. Rodgers - without a doubt has established himself as the king of this hill and there is no reason to think there will be a change next year barring the unexpected

2. Brees - I'm still not clear on the factual basis for the Payton suspension other than it occurred on his watch. If anything Brees strikes me as the type to use it as a rallying cry much like the team did after Katrina.

3. Stafford - Ok, I'm going a bit homer with this one and I'm not ashamed to admit it.

4. Brady - Having Lloyd on my fantasy roster I admit this will be good but not enough to bump Brady up farther than #4 and I suspect there will be at least 1 or 2 up and comers ahead of him by seasons end.

5. Smith - He pleasantly surprised me this year doing better than I thought but I think he has the surrounding talent and enough ability to continue producing.

6. Schaub - IF he returns and can continue to play at the level he has in the past I see him being in this mix but I admit I may be expecting to much to soon from him as he makes his way back.

7. Romo - There is still enough talent surrounding him to make him dangerous... at least until postseason play is at stake.

8. Newton - Love the kid but call it the sophomore jinx or simply breaking onto the scene with such a splash that he just can't help but has some disappointment this year. It will help him if they could acquire a legitimate compliment to Smith at the WR position.

9. Manning, E - Can't argue with this guys results anymore. He may not always look pretty doing it but he has come a long way from a snot nosed kid who wanted to pick where he played.

10. Rivers - I have been impressed with this guy since he came into the league and since he has worked with some subpar talent at WR in the past I am confident he will rebound from this past season and put up numbers similar to his previous work.

11. Flynn - Not only do I see him winning the starting position but with a healthy Rice will make the supporting players more effective and bump the team up to a .500+ season.

12. Vick - I am reluctant to do it but there is to much talent on the Eagle team to not expect everyone to rebound from last year.

Honorable Mentions

a. Freeman - TB is another team that should be able to mount some type of a rebound next year and to do so it will be largely because they have more firepower on offense.

b. Manning, P - He may still be great but his surrounding cast at this point is not. Tamme/Thomas are promising at TE but Demaryius is not Marvin Harrison/Reggie Wayne. I like Decker as a possible safety valve receiver but it is a bit much for me to think the promise will all come together this year.

I like Stafford at 3 but please pass me whatever you started smoking when you decided to rank Smith top 5??

This one needs an explanation. Vernon Davis made him look great in the playoffs but last year he averaged :

196.5 yards per game and 1.1875 tds per game(including rushing)

Want to know a really quick way to lose a fantasy matchup? Have your qb throw no td passes. Alex did that 5 times.

Want to up your chances slightly but still have a good shot at losing? Have you qb throw 1 td pass. Alex did that 6 times.

11 games with 0 or 1 td pass. No 300 yard games.

I like him as a borderline top 12 guy but that's about it. Top fantasy qbs don't typically come from great defensive, ball control, run first teams.

[madd futher mucker]

I just am not buying Muggleborn's Alex "Game Manager" Smith pick anywhere in the top 12, much less as the #5 QB on the list. I'd bet and give big odds against that happening.

[Super Cubs]

I like the origional list. Freeman is the only question mark but like in the post VJax was added to his list of weapons so who knows. IMO you could take out some of the names on the bottom of the list and replace with Schaub, Cutter, or Big Ben and it still would be a good list. Like someone mentioned there is alot of talent at QB this year.

[vroompac]

I don't like Vick in the top ten. And now that their left tackle is gone, its gonna get worse for him.

[IGotWorms]

I just am not buying Muggleborn's Alex "Game Manager" Smith pick anywhere in the top 12, much less as the #5 QB on the list. I'd bet and give big odds against that happening.

[Pecos Rattlers]

• 1 Rodgers: No reason to see a change here.
  
• 2 Brady: Lots of options and an always adaptable offense.
  
• 3 Brees: I don't see the suspensions affecting Brees too much, but it raises some question marks that force me to lean slightly toward the stability of Brady & the Patriots.
  
• 4 Stafford: Amazing year in his first full 16 games. He should only get better. I'd put him above Brees and Brady if I wasn't worried about his injury history.
  
• 5 Rivers. Off year, but he looked (somewhat) better at the end. I think he'll rebound and he can be had cheaper than some. Great risk/reward pick IMO.
  
• 6 Ryan. After a slight downtick in his sophomore year, has steadily increased his FP each year. Julio Jones has a year of experience now & Turner is getting older too, so they could conceivably throw more.
  
• 7 Romo. Offense has to be healthier this year & he has a much lower INT rate than Eli (if your league doesn't penalize ints, swap him with Eli)
  
• 8 E. Manning. Finally looked good all year. Price is likely high though, with the SB buzz.
  
• 9 Newton. There's tons of film on him now. I expect him to do well, but not catch defenses completely off guard. He should run for fewer TDs, but also throw for more.
  
• 10 Vick. A huge wildcard, but he could still finish 10th if he misses a game or two. His per game avg last year was only 7th though, so not much upside to justify the risk pick.
  
• 11 P. Manning. Not convinced he is fully back, but his competitive drive will keep him in the mix.
  
• 12 Sanchez. Adding Tebow could go either way, but Sanchez can be had cheap, so worth the risk. 10th fantasy QB last year (26 TD), though his efficiency was not stellar.

[Muggleborn]

I like Stafford at 3 but please pass me whatever you started smoking when you decided to rank Smith top 5??

I like him as a borderline top 12 guy but that's about it.

As I mentioned in my post he pleasantly surprised me last year but has done nothing that was not expected when he entered the league. He does not get the huge bump up on his talent alone though. With his continued development and the talent SF already had I do not expect a backslide like I anticipate for Cam.

The additions of Manny, Moss and Jacobs would indicate the offense could take a very nice jump up in production which translates into a nice increase for Smith. Last year Smith ONLY had Crabs and Davis as legitimate receivers making it easier for defenses to defend. He now has enough talent to open the offense up, spread the ball around and become more productive.

I definitely understand those who are doubting that a QB who has been playing in the league as long as he has with mediocre results is suddenly going to be a top 5 play at his position. I am not a 9'r fan but I think they are a team to watch and this years results are not a fluke. A part of that is they are getting better play from their investment at QB.

[Muggleborn]

• 12 Sanchez. Adding Tebow could go either way, but Sanchez can be had cheap, so worth the risk. 10th fantasy QB last year (26 TD), though his efficiency was not stellar.

I haven't been a fan since Sanchez came out so I may not be as objective as I should. I like Tebow getting playing time and that can not help Sanchez. I understand people questioning my Smith call at #5 but I would equate this as a comparable gamble.

[MTSkiBum]

QB's tend to put up better numbers in ages 30-34 than they do when they are 26-29. Look at eli manning, drew brees, and Tom Brady just to name a few.



Ben Roethlisberger is entering his age 30 season, and he has the best weapons that he has ever had. Not to mention the Steelers defense is aging. I would put good money on the steelers allowing more points scoring this upcoming year than they did last year.


Ben has also finished in the top 10 in 4 out of the last 6 years. It would be foolish to rank him outside of the top 12.

[Raider 84]

It wouldn't surprise me to see Stafford be the qb #1 this year. Actually any or the top 5 could finish as the top qb. Newton has the most risk being a 2nd year player. Teams have film now, and there is always a sophomore slump, but I still got him ranked #5. It's good to have one of those as a starting qb. Rodgers is still the man!

[IGotWorms]

As I mentioned in my post he pleasantly surprised me last year but has done nothing that was not expected when he entered the league. He does not get the huge bump up on his talent alone though. With his continued development and the talent SF already had I do not expect a backslide like I anticipate for Cam.

The additions of Manny, Moss and Jacobs would indicate the offense could take a very nice jump up in production which translates into a nice increase for Smith. Last year Smith ONLY had Crabs and Davis as legitimate receivers making it easier for defenses to defend. He now has enough talent to open the offense up, spread the ball around and become more productive.

I definitely understand those who are doubting that a QB who has been playing in the league as long as he has with mediocre results is suddenly going to be a top 5 play at his position. I am not a 9'r fan but I think they are a team to watch and this years results are not a fluke. A part of that is they are getting better play from their investment at QB.

That's just it right there. Alex Smith has been decent for the last three years as a game manager. But he has never put up big numbers once in his career.

In seven seasons he has never thrown for more than 18 TDs or 3,144 yards. For him to finish top 5 next year he is going to have to put up at LEAST twelve more touchdowns and 1,500 more yards than he ever has before.

I could see modest improvement from him next year but nothing approaching those numbers.

[Muggleborn]

Alex Smith has been decent for the last three years as a game manager. But he has never put up big numbers once in his career.

In seven seasons he has never thrown for more than 18 TDs or 3,144 yards. For him to finish top 5 next year he is going to have to put up at LEAST twelve more touchdowns and 1,500 more yards than he ever has before.

I could see modest improvement from him next year but nothing approaching those numbers.

Looking back at the last 3 yrs - it has been Gore on the ground and Davis/Crab's in the passing game (it can be argued that Morgan was a factor in 09 but overall he has been a major disappointment). I am not sure if I would contend that there has been steady improvement over that period but there has not been the tinkering I would have expected to diversify either.

The additions are why I am anticipating a greater amount of improvement. Manny is a definite upgrade over Morgan even w/ the drops... but I am also expecting a Moss with a chip on his shoulder making a rebound and a serious contribution (at his worst wouldn't he be better than Ginn at a WR spot?).

Granted I thought Moss would have refocused after leaving NE as well, so this is where my prediction could get derailed. If Moss becomes a distraction the 9'r entire season could make last season appear to be a fluke.

[unclemercy]

i like rothlisburglar cutler and rivers right now for the steal. id like manning to stay healthy so my career league team has a hope.

i hate alex smith.

[Cara]

As I mentioned in my post he pleasantly surprised me last year but has done nothing that was not expected when he entered the league. He does not get the huge bump up on his talent alone though. With his continued development and the talent SF already had I do not expect a backslide like I anticipate for Cam.

The additions of Manny, Moss and Jacobs would indicate the offense could take a very nice jump up in production which translates into a nice increase for Smith. Last year Smith ONLY had Crabs and Davis as legitimate receivers making it easier for defenses to defend. He now has enough talent to open the offense up, spread the ball around and become more productive.

I definitely understand those who are doubting that a QB who has been playing in the league as long as he has with mediocre results is suddenly going to be a top 5 play at his position. I am not a 9'r fan but I think they are a team to watch and this years results are not a fluke. A part of that is they are getting better play from their investment at QB.

Ummm. No. Manny couldn't live up to expectations with Eli throwing him the ball. Jacobs is nothing more than bench fodder and who cares if Moss can still run a 4.35 40? Smith can't throw the ball that far, so it's a moot point.

The 49'ers as a team are fantastic. They are fantastic in SPITE of Alex Smith, not because of him. I will happily make a bet with you on the outcome of your prediction.

[Muggleborn]

The 49'ers as a team are fantastic. They are fantastic in SPITE of Alex Smith, not because of him. I will happily make a bet with you on the outcome of your prediction.

I have not said the 9'rs were fantastic because of Smith. I think they were cinderella last year but have made some nice acquisitions so they will continue to improve. Smith benefits because of those moves.

What did you have in mind?

[Matt Mueller]

Smith moving into the top 12 would be a successful fantasy season for those gambling on him.

Top 4, barring injury, is likely going to be a repeat of Rodgers, Brady, Brees, and Stafford. QB is the most consistent fantasy position year in year out.

Vying for the 5th spot will be some combination of: Cam, Romo, Ryan, Peyton, Vick, Eli and Rivers.


Tebow has a better chance of finishing top 5 that Smith does.

[Skurzilla]

Here's Dave's early look at top 12 QBs with commentary. An abbreviated list for RBs and WRs will be along soon.

Top 12 QBs for 2012

I would rate Alex Smith at #12 over Josh Freeman.

[Muggleborn]

Smith moving into the top 12 would be a successful fantasy season for those gambling on him.

Top 4, barring injury, is likely going to be a repeat of Rodgers, Brady, Brees, and Stafford. QB is the most consistent fantasy position year in year out.

I would not draft Smith once the 4th QB was taken but for his current ADP (13.12 at FFC) he is a great value.

No concern for the Brees situation - no Payton and unsigned? I could see that along with the distractions that go with the bounty fiasco having a negative impact on the entire team.

[Matt Mueller]

I would not draft Smith once the 4th QB was taken but for his current ADP (13.12 at FFC) he is a great value.

No concern for the Brees situation - no Payton and unsigned? I could see that along with the distractions that go with the bounty fiasco having a negative impact on the entire team.

I have some concern for the Brees situation, which is why if I was set on taking a top 4 qb would select a RB in the first and take Stafford in the second, but having the team be worse and fantasy production doesn't always correlate.

They won their last 8 games last year. Some by a huge margin, and even in those games they really didn't stop throwing, so I think this point is mostly mute but we could see Brees slinging it more in the 4th quarter and getting garbage time points next year.

I think you can more safely rank Brady over Brees this year but who knows. Brees can run that offense by himself. The defense might not be able to keep anyone of the field though and that's a concern.