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"TOSSI" - A potential rookie evaluation tool


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#1 madd futher mucker

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Posted 25 April 2012 - 06:35 PM

On the eve of the upcoming draft, I've been thinking about an acronym concept that I first read about a while back called "TOSS". I expanded the concept by one letter to come up with a very rough evaluation tool for rookies in dynasty drafts. TOSSI is my acronym for TALENT, OPPORTUNITY, SYSTEM, SUPPORT, INTANGIBLES.

NFL translatable TALENT has already pretty much been defined in our pre-draft intelligence gathering process. But we all know that by itself, sheer talent is not a good predictor of NFL or fantasy success.

Over the long haul, OPPORTUNITY seldom trumps talent - but without the ability to get on the field for any type of offensive productivity, all of the talent in the world doesn't mean much. I'd maintain that Jonathan Stewart has Trent Richardson talent, but being in a perpetual timeshare has done nothing to enhance his fantasy value. Jacob Tamme never got the opportunity until Dallas Clark got hurt.

SYSTEM - Oddly, oftentimes NFL GMs seem to draft round pegs to fit square holes. For example, sometimes a very talented pass catching TE is not drafted into a system that maximizes his skills and minimizes his deficiencies as a blocker. At worst he can langush as a role player his entire career.

SUPPORT - Position coaches can be critical in the refining of a young player's technique. The best of them can significantly accelerate a player's progress from a bench/ role player into a fantasy stud. I'd really like to know more about who are the best position coaches. Similarly 'mentoring' veterans at the same position (guys like Donald Driver and Hines Ward come to mind) can make a huge difference. An often overlooked component under 'support' is surrounding talent. Peyton Manning could make his receivers look much better than perhaps they actually were.

INTANGIBLES - Character can make a huge difference with coaches, which often translates into more consistent playing time. Talent being somewhat equal, work ethic is what can separate the mediocre from the great. Most still consider Jamarcus Russell to have been one of the very top QBs in terms of sheer talent that came into the NFL in the last decade.


Obviously, the intangible component - leadership skills and work ethic is very important in a QB; in a WR, not as much.

Draftable Wide Receivers are often really quite close as far as their talent, but some may take longer to "incubate" before they are NFL starters. With Wide Receivers, Opportunity and Support are arguably as or even more important than talent. At this position, opportunity is defined by targets.

Many of today's Running Backs have system-specific skill sets. Being drafted into the right system to fit their running style, and blocking/pass catching skills will make all the difference, so the system becomes more important for that position.


Unfortunately it is impossible to develop a weighting system that represents with any great accuracy the value of these components to a player's projected success. Again, as we have too often seen and the Jamarcus Russell example proves, one lacking component (in his case, intangibles) can completely make the other four components totally meaningless and turn a potential stud into a complete bust. I believe that the best we can do when preparing for our rookie dynasty drafts is to consciously take into account all five components of TOSSI and weigh each of then as best we can when deciding which rookie to select.

Feel free to chime in with your thoughts on this topic.

I retired from a 25 year marriage and a very brief sideline job as a Fantasy Football Analyst.  So now i only have my day job and my dog to keep me occupied. 


#2 jocstrap

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Posted 25 April 2012 - 08:31 PM

Opportunity never trumps talent - but without the ability to get on the field for any type of offensive productivity, all of the talent in the world doesn't mean much. I'd maintain that Jonathan Stewart has Trent Richardson talent, but being in a perpetual timeshare has done nothing to enhance his fantasy value. Jacob Tamme never got the opportunity until Dallas Clark got hurt.



Alright MFM - I like a lot of the things you post :thumbsup:

I live in Alabama but graduated from Mississippi State. I've had to put up with Alabama, Auburn, Alabama as National Champs as of late and it's driving me crazy. Trent Richardson is scary good I must say. Stewart should not be put in the same sentence as this guy. Gulp that was painful, but carry on! I'll continue reading your post. I like where you are coming from :doublethumbsup:

#3 jgcrawfish

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Posted 26 April 2012 - 08:08 AM

Alright MFM - I like a lot of the things you post :thumbsup:

I live in Alabama but graduated from Mississippi State. I've had to put up with Alabama, Auburn, Alabama as National Champs as of late and it's driving me crazy. Trent Richardson is scary good I must say. Stewart should not be put in the same sentence as this guy. Gulp that was painful, but carry on! I'll continue reading your post. I like where you are coming from :doublethumbsup:


Stewart is the most complete back to come out of college since Adrian Peterson. There hasn't been a guy that could run for power, break it with speed, block and catch all in one package like him. While he wasn't the pure runner that Peterson was coming out, he was a better pass catching back and a much better blocker. Stewart has two problems, feet/ankles that don't hold up to the pounding from his big body, and opportunity, with the latter being the biggest problem. MFM is dead on with his assertion on Stewart. Richardson is the only back coming out recently that even deserves mention with Peterson and Stewart. That's not to say that guys like Chris Johnson don't end up being better pros, because as MFM points out, there are lots of variables that determine their impact on the game. Richardson can have all the talent in the world and end up in Cleveland without a QB or passing game, and playing the Steelers and Ravens 4x a year, and end up being just a "good" back.

"All that is necessary for the triumph of evil is that good men do nothing." (Edmund Burke)

#4 Cara

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Posted 26 April 2012 - 11:28 AM

When Stewart came out, many Scouts thought he was the best RB in his class. Even with his nagging ankle/foot injuries, he doesn't miss games. Why Carolina didn't let Williams walk last year is something I will always question. It made no sense to keep a RB as talented as Stewart in a timeshare. If anything, he should be getting no less than 70% of the carries.

I do not think he has the talent of AP, but would put him not far behind. AP has a grace about him that you don't see in most RB's. His lateral movement is amazing and not often seen from someone of his size. Stewart is an all around great back, but what AP has is something you are born with. His vision, drive and determination make him great. How about if AP is a 9 (on a one to ten scale), Stewart is an 8.5 in terms of ability? I think that's fair. :cheers:

Love reading your work MFM. It is always quality.

#5 stonewall

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Posted 26 April 2012 - 04:26 PM

Good thoughts. Perhaps you intended this to be included with intangibles, but I would add intelligence also. Dumb players coming out of college generally have a much harder time getting up to NFL speed, particularly in complex systems. Dez Bryant comes to mind.

Although the Wonderlic scores don't always tell the tale (I think Revis flunked it), it is an important consideration.

Injury history/durability is also noteworthy.

I feel my football knowledge is vastly superior to my opponents. I also am just in general, a smarter person. These two things should allow me a huge advantage. But I've yet to be truly dominant.


#6 nobody

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Posted 26 April 2012 - 09:32 PM

Just substitute "character" for intangibles and you can make it SCOTS

Or how about STOICS

System
Talent
Oppurtunity
Injuries
Character
Support

#7 madd futher mucker

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Posted 26 April 2012 - 09:37 PM

Just substitute "character" for intangibles and you can make it SCOTS

Or how about STOICS

System
Talent
Oppurtunity
Injuries
Character
Support


Scrabble, anyone?

I retired from a 25 year marriage and a very brief sideline job as a Fantasy Football Analyst.  So now i only have my day job and my dog to keep me occupied. 


#8 JT

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Posted 01 May 2012 - 03:23 PM

Just substitute "character" for intangibles and you can make it SCOTS

Or how about STOICS

System
Talent
Oppurtunity
Injuries
Character
Support


COITUS

Character
Opportunity
Injuries
Talent
Upside
Support

To argue with a man who has renounced his reason is like giving medicine to the dead. Thomas Paine

 

We are buried beneath the weight of information, which is being confused with knowledge; quantity is being confused with abundance and wealth with happiness. We are monkeys with money and guns. Tom Waits
 

The way to see by faith is to shut the eye of reason- Benjamin Franklin, Poor Richard's Almanac (1758)

 

 


#9 madd futher mucker

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Posted 01 May 2012 - 03:43 PM

And the winner of the acronym contest is (drumroll please): JT. Mike, can you please send this guy a T-shirt?

COITUS

Character
Opportunity
Injuries
Talent
Upside
Support


I retired from a 25 year marriage and a very brief sideline job as a Fantasy Football Analyst.  So now i only have my day job and my dog to keep me occupied. 


#10 jgcrawfish

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Posted 01 May 2012 - 08:19 PM

COITUS

Character
Opportunity
Injuries
Talent
Upside
Support


Fockin brilliant...We could have a whole COITUS ranking system, market it as the official FFToday COITUS board and have T-shirts that say "COITUS EXPERT" on them or something... :headbanger:

"All that is necessary for the triumph of evil is that good men do nothing." (Edmund Burke)

#11 420allstars

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Posted 02 May 2012 - 07:49 AM

Fockin brilliant...We could have a whole COITUS ranking system, market it as the official FFToday COITUS board and have T-shirts that say "COITUS EXPERT" on them or something... :headbanger:


:overhead: :overhead: :overhead:

I want a COITUS EXPERT bumper sticker

#12 JT

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Posted 03 May 2012 - 09:39 AM

:overhead: :overhead: :overhead:

I want a COITUS EXPERT bumper sticker


Thank you, thank you.

I don't often wear hats, but I envision a big trucker hat with COITUS EXPERT on it, ala Frank on 30 ROCK.

To argue with a man who has renounced his reason is like giving medicine to the dead. Thomas Paine

 

We are buried beneath the weight of information, which is being confused with knowledge; quantity is being confused with abundance and wealth with happiness. We are monkeys with money and guns. Tom Waits
 

The way to see by faith is to shut the eye of reason- Benjamin Franklin, Poor Richard's Almanac (1758)