42 replies to this topic

[Phurfur]

Is anyone betting on the race? Is it worth the effort to start a discussion? I'm in if anyone else is interested.

http://www.kentuckyd...y-report-apr-26

[Cruzer]

Race seems to be a hot button issue right now - I'll take the black horse.

[BudBro]

i don't handicap the race, but it is one of the sporting events every year for me that is a "must see." the derby, the masters, the daytona 500, the superbowl. i may watch the other triple crown races, but the derby is the highlight. it's a bucket list event that i would like to attend in my lifetime.

[Daddio]

$100 on Mint Jew Lip to win

[tubby_mcgee]

Call me crazy...but I think Alastair Overeem's got a shot at it this year.

Actually...hmm...

My quick thoughts a few horses I have watched recently:

Hansen - would be cool to see white horse win and then try for triple crown....but this horse looks to be short on stamina. Might be okay to 1 mile or so...but 1/4 isn't his game. Should be near lead, so could stay out of trouble, unlike some other horses.

Bodemeister - Looks to be the "hot" horse. Looks to be getting good at the right time. I don't know who the other speed horses are (Hansen, others?) but if he can get slow fractions while on the lead, I think he can win. Won Arkansas Derby by 9 lengths. Last horse to do that: Smarty Jones. Bob Baffert named this horse after his oldest son. Hmmmm. Would you name a sh1t horse after your son? I'm guessing he's not a sh1t horse.

Dullahan - Closed fast and blew by Hansen in most recent race.

Union Rags - Lost last prep...but wow...was stuck behind a wall of horses. If he'd had a clean trip...he'd have won. No reason to count his last race against him.

Gemologist - Undefeated, through I believe 5 races. Held off Alpha in Wood Memorial. Looked like Alpha was going to go by him...but Gemologist looked like he decided to kick it down again when Alpha got near. If he has the guts of his pappy (Tiznow), he could contend.



I'll take:
1.) Union Rags
2.) Bodemeister
3.) Gemologist

Don't be surprised to see the derby 1-2 finish be a duplicate 1-2 finish from a prep race.

[hoytdwow]

I am betting the farm on Proctology Dancer

[Phurfur]

Call me crazy...but I think Alastair Overeem's got a shot at it this year.

Actually...hmm...

My quick thoughts a few horses I have watched recently:

Hansen - would be cool to see white horse win and then try for triple crown....but this horse looks to be short on stamina. Might be okay to 1 mile or so...but 1/4 isn't his game. Should be near lead, so could stay out of trouble, unlike some other horses.

Bodemeister - Looks to be the "hot" horse. Looks to be getting good at the right time. I don't know who the other speed horses are (Hansen, others?) but if he can get slow fractions while on the lead, I think he can win. Won Arkansas Derby by 9 lengths. Last horse to do that: Smarty Jones. Bob Baffert named this horse after his oldest son. Hmmmm. Would you name a sh1t horse after your son? I'm guessing he's not a sh1t horse.

Dullahan - Closed fast and blew by Hansen in most recent race.

Union Rags - Lost last prep...but wow...was stuck behind a wall of horses. If he'd had a clean trip...he'd have won. No reason to count his last race against him.

Gemologist - Undefeated, through I believe 5 races. Held off Alpha in Wood Memorial. Looked like Alpha was going to go by him...but Gemologist looked like he decided to kick it down again when Alpha got near. If he has the guts of his pappy (Tiznow), he could contend.



I'll take:
1.) Union Rags
2.) Bodemeister
3.) Gemologist

Don't be surprised to see the derby 1-2 finish be a duplicate 1-2 finish from a prep race.

We agree on a number of things. My notes to date are:


Dullahan - Won Bluegrass from behind /1 1/4 miles should be no problem / big horse / he's probably the best deep closer in the Derby / Surface will not beat him

Gemologist - Undefeated 5 for 5 and 2 for 2 at CD / Bred for 1 1/4 miles

Bodemeister + Mike Smith Jockey / Won Arkansas by 9 lengths / Bred for 1 1/4 miles / 93-101-102-105 BRIS Speed Rating in his 4 races shows improvement.
- Inexperienced, began his racing career in January / pre-race behavior is a potential drawback

Take Charge Indy + Calvin Borel Jockey / Won wire to wire at Florida / has a 104 & 109 BRIS Speed Rating this year.

Union Rags - 3rd at Florida was trapped down on the rail most of the way / is a “Bounce Back Candidate”

Hansen - 2nd in Bluegrass / 1 1/4 my be too far

These are what I see as the top 6 horses. I do not make my picks until after the post positions are set, hopefully I will be able to eliminate 1 or 2 additional horses before that.

I see the early speed horses as Bodemeister, Hansen and Trinniberg.


El Padrino - has one of the best pedigrees for the Derby and may be overlooked in the wagering. He is an interesting longshot. If the odds are high I will put $2 down to win.

[GobbleDog]

Not the Derby, but a good video to get the Derby juices flowing.



"Secretariat is widening now! He is moving like a tremendous machine! Secretariat by twelve, Secretariat by fourteen lengths on the turn!"

[Mookz]

I'd rather set Thornton Melon's scrotum on fire.

[BudBro]

Not the Derby, but a good video to get the Derby juices flowing.



"Secretariat is widening now! He is moving like a tremendous machine! Secretariat by twelve, Secretariat by fourteen lengths on the turn!"

not only was secretariat tremendous, but sham also ran the derby in under 2 minutes. didn't happen again until 2001. then secretariat outran sham in the belmont by 45 lengths. i remember hearing secretariat would've beaten big brown by 14 or 15 lengths.

all the science of training and 2 horses from 40 years ago can't be outdone.

[Me_2006]

If Bode gets a clean gate, he'll win. That horse is bred for 1 1/4 and will take off and leave the field if he gets out front. With Mike Smith on him, you know he'll be run right. As long as he isn't spooked or fitful going in, and has a good position so he doesn't get jammed at the start, I think he sets the pace and wins it.


For those of you on the fence about going, do it. The weather here is gorgeous this time of year (assuming it doesn't rain, obviously), and there's something for everyone. You can dress up and do the Derby thing with the rich folk, or you can get blackout drunk in the infield, see boobies and fight people. Food is great, booze is AMAZING, there's music, 4th Street is full of stuff to do on Derby weekend and Louisville is one of the cheapest 'major' cities you'll find. Just avoid the West End, particularly at night.

I will say, the traffic and crowd is a nightmare, but it's no worse than any other huge sporting event like a NASCAR race or football game with 100k or so people. The atmosphere makes up for it. It's one of those historical places that just feels alive. Add a little booze and some sundresses to the equation and I promise you'll enjoy yourself.


If you want a similar experience without all the pageantry, crowd and expense, hit up Keeneland in Lexington sometime in the next few weeks. One of the best places to spend a spring afternoon on the planet. Girls, horses, booze, friendly people, it's a good time.

[shotsup]

Will stay in touch with this here thead !

[GobbleDog]

not only was secretariat tremendous, but sham also ran the derby in under 2 minutes. didn't happen again until 2001. then secretariat outran sham in the belmont by 45 lengths. i remember hearing secretariat would've beaten big brown by 14 or 15 lengths.

all the science of training and 2 horses from 40 years ago can't be outdone.

I've heard that after Secretariat died, they did an autopsy (or whatever it's called) and learned that Secretariat's heart was abnormally large for a horse.



As for the Kentucky Derby, I've bet on every Derby for the past 15+ years and never won a penny...... until last year!!!! What are the odds of picking the winner back to back?

[tubby_mcgee]

In a 12 horse field, with the "top 12" entrants...I'd be very confident right now with Union Rags. The problem is the dumb, dumb, dumb 20 horse field. Bodemeister does have a good chance if he stays clear of trouble-which he has as good of chance as any to stay clear. Someday....they will reduce the derby field to 14 or 12.

[Phurfur]

Some comments by Jill Byrne (official handicapper at Churchill Downs) on workouts this weekend

Union Rags - Looks Phenominal
I'll Have Another - Looks fantastic

[tubby_mcgee]

i remember hearing secretariat would've beaten big brown by 14 or 15 lengths.

in what race? The Belmont? Big Brown was pulled up and walked to finish line....

[Phurfur]

Early Odds

Alpha 11/1
Bodemeister 9/2
Creative Cause 11/1
Daddy Long Legs 30/1
Daddy Nose Best 15/1
Done Talking 50/1
Dullahan 8/1
El Padrino 16/1
Gemologist 7/1
Hansen 14/1
Hero of Order 100/1
Ill Have Another 15/1
Liaison 40/1
Mark Valeski 23/1
My Adonis 40/1
Optimizer 60/1
Prospective 50/1
Rousing Sermon 40/1
Sabercat 35/1
Take Charge Indy 16/1
Trinniberg 45/1
Union Rags 9/2
Went The Day Well 18/1

[Phurfur]

Analysis of Derby Contenders

[Phurfur]

How to Read a Racing Form
Daily Racing Form

[Phurfur]

Post Positions Set

[GobbleDog]

Thank you for posting those links.

Any new thoughts on the horses?

I was initially leaning Take Charge Indy, but I've decided against him for various reasons. One of which being I simply hate the thought of betting on jockey Calvin Borel. I mean he's obviously good, but damn how many frikin Derby's can somebody possibly win in such a short span? Even with the greatest horses on Earth, it seems impossible for anyone to win 4 Kentucky Derby's in 6 years. The horse racing Gods simply can't let that happen.

So lately I've been thinking about a horse that nobody seems to be talking about - Creative Cause. In 8 starts he's got 4 wins and never worse than 3rd. Last race 2nd in San Anita by a nose to another Derby horse and from what I've read looked as if he wanted more distance - perfect for the Derby. Solid Beyer rating, respectable winnings, and very talented jockey.

Haven't made up my mind fer sure, but those are my initial ramblings.

[shotsup]

Union Rags and Bodemeister got decent inside draws as did Borel's horse. But who is the horse that will come out of the pack and finish first or second that'll make everyone and make my exacta/triple ??

With such an open field (as always) the derby is a

[Phurfur]

Thank you for posting those links.

Any new thoughts on the horses?

I was initially leaning Take Charge Indy, but I've decided against him for various reasons. One of which being I simply hate the thought of betting on jockey Calvin Borel. I mean he's obviously good, but damn how many frikin Derby's can somebody possibly win in such a short span? Even with the greatest horses on Earth, it seems impossible for anyone to win 4 Kentucky Derby's in 6 years. The horse racing Gods simply can't let that happen.

So lately I've been thinking about a horse that nobody seems to be talking about - Creative Cause. In 8 starts he's got 4 wins and never worse than 3rd. Last race 2nd in San Anita by a nose to another Derby horse and from what I've read looked as if he wanted more distance - perfect for the Derby. Solid Beyer rating, respectable winnings, and very talented jockey.

Haven't made up my mind fer sure, but those are my initial ramblings.

I still consider myself a notch above novice when it comes to horse racing so I am looking for all the help I can get.

My notes on Creative Cause
2nd at Santa Anita / 1 win in last 4 starts, but never looses by more than a length
Record on Dirt - 5-2-1-2
Beyer This Year - 92-102-94

Trainer Mike Harrington’s comments on drawing the 8 position – “It’s perfect. The post gives him a chance to get out and get a good stalking position. Depending on the speed, I expect him to three or four lengths off the leaders. That’s the way he runs.”

This horse is hard to eliminate from the mix and at 12 – 1 is a tempting play.

ETA: Creative Cause ran down Bodemeister at Santa Anita Park on March 10th.
Watch the replay here




I am struggling with Take Charge Indy too but jockey Calvin Borel is a plus not a negative especially in the 3 position. I would not eliminate this horse just because of Borel’s great Derby record. Calvin Borel is the main reason I have not eliminated Take Charge Indy from the mix yet and have him wheeled in the 3 spot in a Trifecta right now. This will probably change by Saturday.

Take Charge Indy was fifth in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, his only race at CHD / he won his only other race on dirt.

[Phurfur]

Union Rags and Bodemeister got decent inside draws as did Borel's horse. But who is the horse that will come out of the pack and finish first or second that'll make everyone and make my exacta/triple ??

With such an open field (as always) the derby is a

I currently like Gemologist from the 15th spot but Bodemeister with Beyers of 82-101-101-108 this year is hard to overlook. I currently have 9 horses that I have not eliminated from my trifecta and 4 horses as possible winners so I have some work to do.

[tubby_mcgee]

I currently like Gemologist from the 15th spot but Bodemeister with Beyers of 82-101-101-108 this year is hard to overlook. I currently have 9 horses that I have not eliminated from my trifecta and 4 horses as possible winners so I have some work to do.

Gemologist got a good draw....and he's 5/5...but hasn't had good numbers so to speak.

DRF notes:

Creative Cause has not had the best week of the Derby contenders after coming up with a minor foot issue on the flight east. He does not seem real comfortable at a jog and like several others in this field has shown a tendency to get hot in the morning. He does look better once allowed to stretch his legs and did finish willingly enough in his one local breeze only to take two days off before returning to the track with just an average training session on Thursday. Getting mixed signals from one of the major players.


Gemologist did all his final major preparations at Palm Meadows, where he turned in a very solid work on April 20 prior to my departure for Louisville. He has also made an incredible appearance since arriving locally earlier this week and has already proven his fondness for the Churchill Downs strip. Well-drawn in first stall of the auxiliary gate, there is lots to like here.

Bodemeister is clearly the fastest horse in this field if able to duplicate his performance in the Arkansas Derby and another lightly raced 3-year-old whose form is heading in the right direction. He’s not a pretty mover, to say the least, jogging or galloping but it’s a different story when at full speed, his final Derby prep equal to if not superior to Union Rags’s eye-catching work the previous morning complete with an awesome gallop out. I was looking to side against him when arriving here but cannot eliminate him off that last move alone.


Union Rags looked the part of a Derby winner all winter at Palm Meadows and has continued to make a great appearance since shipping in to Churchill Downs last week. He turned in one of the better pre-Derby works seen here in years, a 59 seconds and change beauty with a superior gallop out on April 28. He bounced back from a failed tongue tie experiment earlier this week with a pair of strong looking gallops on Wednesday and Thursday and willing to forgive his hiccup in the Florida Derby. The one to beat if he gets any kind of a trip.

Dullahan has improved in steady fashion over the past six months, culminating with a superior effort in the Blue Grass, although his form and his high action suggest he’s a better horse on grass and synthetics than dirt. His final Derby prep was also indicative of that fact, more like his works this winter at Gulfstream than his sensational Polytrack drill six days out from the Blue Grass. He possesses the running style that could make him dangerous in this spot if he’s able to repeat his last.

[tubby_mcgee]

Trinniberg (and Hansen) will be the reason Bodemeister fails(if he does). Just read the Hansen couldn't be relaxed...at all...and that it took HELP from another rider on pony to get him stopped. Bodemeister is going to hopefully be able to relax in third place most of race.

Andy Beyer says Bodemeister/Daddy Nose Best exacta.

[Phurfur]

Trinniberg (and Hansen) will be the reason Bodemeister fails(if he does). Just read the Hansen couldn't be relaxed...at all...and that it took HELP from another rider on pony to get him stopped. Bodemeister is going to hopefully be able to relax in third place most of race.

Andy Beyer says Bodemeister/Daddy Nose Best exacta.

Bodie hasn't raced much and I don't know if he needs to run 1st. If he trys run with Trinniberg and Hansen the outcome may not be good. I figure he will lead the second batch of horses which will include Gem and Alpha.

right now I have

Gemologist
Bodemeister
Union Rags
Daddy Nose Best
Dullahan
Take Charge Indy
I'll Have Another
Alpha
Creative Cause

but this will probably change before tomorrow. It looks like it might rain Saturday so that will change things too.

[shotsup]

right now I have

Gemologist
Bodemeister
Union Rags
Daddy Nose Best
Dullahan
Take Charge Indy
I'll Have Another
Alpha
Creative Cause

10 cents superfecta BOX THEM ALL

[tubby_mcgee]

I'm probably gonna do a $10 boxed Superfecta on the entire field.

[rallo]

With all of this early speed i've been looking for some big money closers to throw in a super or tri...

done talking is a horse i'm looking hard at... big time closer... although BSF only mid to high 80s... If all of these horses are brought to a sprint early by trinniberg i could see him sneaking his way into a place or show

i'll have another also seems to be a sneaky pick to do better countering all of this early speed...

can anyone talk me out of this?

[tubby_mcgee]

With all of this early speed i've been looking for some big money closers to throw in a super or tri...

done talking is a horse i'm looking hard at... big time closer... although BSF only mid to high 80s... If all of these horses are brought to a sprint early by trinniberg i could see him sneaking his way into a place or show

i'll have another also seems to be a sneaky pick to do better countering all of this early speed...

can anyone talk me out of this?

I could talk myself out of all 20 horses....so in the end, ya have to pick one (or however many), and roll the dice and cross your fingers.

Couple things. Are you looking to turn a $20 bet into $100? Or a $2 bet into $42,258? Look at what you are trying to do, and bet from there.

Secondly, pure closers don't generally do well in derby. To much traffic trouble to overcome. Not always..but good chance of it. If you were looking at "closers", I think there are better ones than Done Talking.

Often, after a race....I will look a the exacta or whatever...or even just the winner...and I will say to myself "The only ones that got that right were one of the following:
1.) Accidentally picked the wrong number horse.
2.) A girl picking by name alone
3.) Someone drew the name out of a hat.

(because there was no way that any PP or analysis would have directed one to pick [that horse]

And I was kidding about a $10 Superbox with 20 horses. That'd be like some astronomical figure. Prolly in the millions of $.

[GobbleDog]

I'm sticking with Creative Cause - $10 win/place/show.

He's the only grey horse so it'll be easier to spot him as he fades to last coming down the final stretch.

[Phurfur]

I'm probably gonna do a $10 boxed Superfecta on the entire field.

That trick never works!
- Rocket "Rocky" J. Squirrel

[Phurfur]

Secondly, pure closers don't generally do well in derby. To much traffic trouble to overcome. Not always..but good chance of it. If you were looking at "closers", I think there are better ones than Done Talking.

Often, after a race....I will look a the exacta or whatever...or even just the winner...and I will say to myself "The only ones that got that right were one of the following:
1.) Accidentally picked the wrong number horse.
2.) A girl picking by name alone
3.) Someone drew the name out of a hat.

(because there was no way that any PP or analysis would have directed one to pick [that horse]

I enjoy the handicapping process (I prefer the dogs to the horses) and spent some time at it. My wife spends about 2 minutes before each race and over a month our results are very similar. She doesn’t win as often but her payouts are bigger.

[tubby_mcgee]

I enjoy the handicapping process (I prefer the dogs to the horses) and spent some time at it. My wife spends about 2 minutes before each race and over a month our results are very similar. She doesn’t win as often but her payouts are bigger.

Dogs are more difficult to handicap...imo. One bump and whooaa...out of the race.

[Old School]

Man- Thx for the thread. I may miss watching this years derby for the first time in forever.
Good to read a little about the field and some geek takes on who is looking good,

[phan a tic]

Creative Cause has already beaten Bode-dude once and lost by a nose in another race.
So, I say:

1) Creative Cause
2) Bodemeister
3) Union Rags


Maybe bet one large.

[Phurfur]

15 - W
15-6 Ex
15-6-4-10 Ex Box
15-6 / 15-6-4-10 / 15-6-4-10 Tri

7 - W

These are my preliminary bets.

Warning: Use at your own risk.

[jets24]

15 - W
15-6 Ex
15-6-4-10 Ex Box
15-6 / 15-6-4-10 / 15-6-4-10 Tri

7 - W

These are my preliminary bets.

Warning: Use at your own risk.

<br><br><br>I'm putting $100 on I'll Have Another<br>

[Phurfur]

I didn't cash a ticket on the Derby and would have had to make a 6 horse exacta box to win but it was a great day at the bar (OTB).