26 replies to this topic

[The Football Guru]

Whether we like it or not, Griffin bears a lot of likeness to a young Michael Vick with slightly less open-field elusiveness but better accuracy as a passer. His running ability will be put to good use in Mike Shanahan’s offense. In Shanahan’s system, quarterbacks are often asked to bootleg off play-action and throw on the run – a perfect fit for Griffin. The last time Shanahan worked with a gifted strong-armed mobile QB that was at or near his prime was Steve Young from 1992-1994. In those seasons combined, Young ran for 1,237 yards and 14 touchdowns and that was during a time when the idea of a running quarterback wasn’t nearly as accepted as it is today. In all likelihood, RG3 will not approach Cam Newton’s level of success in his rookie season simply because he isn’t entering a situation in which he should be asked to carry his new offense to the same degree Newton had to.

In redraft leagues, Griffin is entering a situation in which he has an outside shot to finish as a top 12 QB THIS YEAR. To be safe, he should be drafted as a QB2 in 12-team leagues, but 3,200+ passing yards, 500+ rushing yards and 6-8 rushing scores are entirely possible benchmarks for him to reach.

[Mike MacGregor]

Thanks for doing these posts Doug. Good stuff.

Are you saying Plummer wasn't in his prime when he was with Shanny in Denver? That was more recent than Young. Or was Plummer not gifted? Yeah, that probably makes more sense.

Really tough to predict these rookie QBs for this year. Absolutely should be drafted as a QB2 because of the risk.

[Busted by the Feds]

What good are the draft picks they gave up if the guy running the offense is Rex Grossman ? They needed either Luck or RG3, and that's what they ended up with .

[kutulu]

Cousins

[Voltaire]

Cousins

As a MSU fan, I'm pretty disappointed for Kirk to go to Washington. Cousins is a fine young QB so hopefully the Redskins convert RGIII over to WR for him. He could excel there.

[swirvenirvin]

As a MSU fan, I'm pretty disappointed for Kirk to go to Washington. Cousins is a fine young QB so hopefully the Redskins convert RGIII over to WR for him. He could excel there.

Who knows how this if going to turn out, but yeah seems like a really raw deal for Cousins

[Kent]

As a MSU fan, I'm pretty disappointed for Kirk to go to Washington. Cousins is a fine young QB so hopefully the Redskins convert RGIII over to WR for him. He could excel there.

He was going to carry a clip board no matter where he went. Now he at least has a chance to play when, GOD FORBID, RGIII gets hurt running around.

I'm a Skins fan and I hope to never see Cousins play, but QBs rarely play 16 games anymore.

I'm torn on the pick. But then again, it means Rex is gone, which is great. He's awful.

[ens189]

Mr "Can't read progressions" will be the 2nd best QB drafted by the Skins this year. WAR Cousins!!!

[kutulu]

Damm...I thought Shanahan went through running backs quick.

[Portis26]

RG3 was BPA in draft
Will have best career from draft class
Will win multiple SBs

Don't hate, just appreciate and enjoy the show he is bout to display

[roroco]

RG3 was BPA in draft
Will have best career from draft class
Will win multiple SBs

Don't hate, just appreciate and enjoy the show he is bout to display

The odds are greatly against you one that one... unless the Skins trade him to a team that knows how to draft and run an organization. A QB is a major factor in the success of a team, but even the greatest of QBs need a solid - not great, but solid - team around them. Unfortunately, that is not the Skins. While I think they do have more talent than Indy right now and that RGIII will make more of an impact in the short term, Indy is not blowing 5 picks in one year on one position and they are trying to build the team the RIGHT way by building depth and filling holes. Indy will be a contender in the playoffs before the Skins are.

So, while I like RGIII, and I think he can be a great QB, unless the Skins stop disrespecting the draft and over paying for slot receivers and alcoholic DBs, they will never get it and RGIII will fall into obscurity. And that is not even mentioning that he is at a risk of having a short career because he will get hit a lot in DC and his body is not a bruising type.

I wish you luck, but you really should have more angst against you team management.

[Portis26]

I wish you luck, but you really should have more angst against you team management.

I like the aggressive style- not saying it works but at least they aren't scared to pull trigger to get some depth at QB and for going after franchise potential QB

[roroco]

I like the aggressive style- not saying it works but at least they aren't scared to pull trigger to get some depth at QB and for going after franchise potential QB

I could see using a 6th or 7th for depth on your QB team, but they used a 4th round pick (their third pick) on their third string QB.

[IGotWorms]

I like the aggressive style- not saying it works but at least they aren't scared to pull trigger to get some depth at QB and for going after franchise potential QB

I'm on record as saying the Skins gave up too much for RGIII and hamstrung themselves in the process. That said, to be fair at least they are being aggressive in going after a QB. The other end of the spectrum is the Miami Dolphins, who were so obsessed with getting value that they wasted a series of draft picks trying to find a diamond in the rough.

[titans&bucs&bearsohmy!]

As a Titans fan, I watched a lot of video of Baylor games this weekend, to check out our new toy.

I wasn't really watching for RGIII, but he was there, and one negative thing jumped out to me...

He REALLY locks on to a receiver as they are crossing the field. He'll need to work on that.

I hope it works out. The Skins have sucked for too long. It would be fun to hate them again.

[theplaymaker]

1. After working with Steve Young at SF Shanahan went on to work with the following QB's who all had top 10 seasons while with him : Brian Griese (3 times), Jake Plummer (3 times) and don't forget Elway who was top 5 four times and won a couple of super bowls at the end.

2. Naked bootlegs are a staple play in Shanahan's offense and RGIII will be required to run them rather than asked so he should get some extra rushing TD opportunities but he is not Cam Newton and I don't think they had using him like a goal-line back in mind when they traded away all those picks just to move up a few spots to get him and then see him get injured right out of the gate.

3. He is a rookie. Cam Newton was an anomaly although I also like RGIII and his future outlook I would not count on him to finish in the top 10. Griese and Plummer were not in the top 10 during their first year with Shanahan. It will take some time before RGIII will be able to learn Shamahan's brand of the Zone Blocking offense, it takes some time in the classroom and on the field before players usually get comfortable with it and is a tad more than the simplistic offense they installed for Cam last year.

4. Shanahan's passing offense is predicated off the run game and the play-action. Helu showed promise but he has yet to emerge as a viable starter and Hightower blew out his knee, again. This is is his third serious injury since college. He was never very fast to begin with but it was obvious last season he lost his burst too, and that was before he blew out his knee. Torrain looks like an impostor. I am a little wary of the RB situation there. If they run the ball like they did last year RGIII will have a hard time shining in his first year there.

5. Bottom line, I would take RGIII only as a late round flyer. There are always some QB's who go undrated and finish among the top 10 every year, you can count on it. RGIII might be the next one but he probably will be over-valued in the next years drafts so I don't he makes a good player to target at this time.

[titans&bucs&bearsohmy!]

Let me ask you guys something. I think I am in line to draft RG3 in a dynasty league. I want Jake Locker (I'm a Titans homer, and think he'll be special) but haven't been able to trade away for him.

Would I be completely glue sniffing insane to trade RG3 for Locker straight up? I honestly think Locker will have the better career. Is this one of those situations where homerism leads us astray?

ETA: Brady is my starter, so I don't need either one to play right away, just an eventual replacement.

[GreenTD]

Let me ask you guys something. I think I am in line to draft RG3 in a dynasty league. I want Jake Locker (I'm a Titans homer, and think he'll be special) but haven't been able to trade away for him.

Would I be completely glue sniffing insane to trade RG3 for Locker straight up? I honestly think Locker will have the better career. Is this one of those situations where homerism leads us astray?

ETA: Brady is my starter, so I don't need either one to play right away, just an eventual replacement.

I wouldn't say that it's a completely insane trade to make. Locker looked good in his limited action last year & is also a mobile quarterback. You're still gonna get plenty of rushing yards tacked onto his passing totals. Plus I think Locker has a better supporting cast surrounding him in Tennessee.

My only suggestion is not to let your homerism get in the way of getting maximum value in the trade. I'm sure you can get some extra picks or players involved in the trade since RGIII's value is inflated as of now. Rookies are always valued since the "unknown upside" factor plays into their favor not to mention some owners are gonna be chasing the chance at Cam Newton 2.0.

I think RGIII is gonna be a good to great fantasy quarterback but his small frame scares me a little bit. Not to mention you get to cheer on your home team & quarterback when watching your fantasy team as well.

Let us know what kind of offers you can propose or he counters with, not to mention his starting quarterback situation.

[Kent]

I wouldn't say that it's a completely insane trade to make. Locker looked good in his limited action last year & is also a mobile quarterback. You're still gonna get plenty of rushing yards tacked onto his passing totals. Plus I think Locker has a better supporting cast surrounding him in Tennessee.

My only suggestion is not to let your homerism get in the way of getting maximum value in the trade. I'm sure you can get some extra picks or players involved in the trade since RGIII's value is inflated as of now. Rookies are always valued since the "unknown upside" factor plays into their favor not to mention some owners are gonna be chasing the chance at Cam Newton 2.0.

I think RGIII is gonna be a good to great fantasy quarterback but his small frame scares me a little bit. Not to mention you get to cheer on your home team & quarterback when watching your fantasy team as well.

Let us know what kind of offers you can propose or he counters with, not to mention his starting quarterback situation.

"At weigh-in for skill-position players Friday morning, Griffin was measured at 6023 (6-2 3/8) and 223 pounds according to multiple sources." - Combine report

Not exactly a small frame. Indeed, the guy is closer to being a beast than a frail since he's all muscle.

[GreenTD]

"At weigh-in for skill-position players Friday morning, Griffin was measured at 6023 (6-2 3/8) and 223 pounds according to multiple sources." - Combine report

Not exactly a small frame. Indeed, the guy is closer to being a beast than a frail since he's all muscle.

Michael Vick is only listed at 6'0" & 210 pounds from what I found. So RGIII only has 2 inches & 10-13 pounds on him. Being a mobile quarterback, he's going to be more prone to open field hits when scrambling the way he does. Cam Newton can absorb more of these hits because he's bigger than most LB's & DB's. We've all seen the toll it takes on Vick when he takes these hits, so hopefully Shanahan & Co. teach the kid the art of sliding when a linebacker is bearing down on you full bore.

Watching his college tape, all that extra improvisation's are going to get him killed unless he improves his field awareness when scrambling. Spinning around & running in a direction that he wasn't aware of where blitzing defenders are coming from will earn him a spot on "Jacked Up".... Oh wait, the NFL doesn't condone hard hits anymore.

[Kent]

Michael Vick is only listed at 6'0" & 210 pounds from what I found. So RGIII only has 2 inches & 10-13 pounds on him. Being a mobile quarterback, he's going to be more prone to open field hits when scrambling the way he does. Cam Newton can absorb more of these hits because he's bigger than most LB's & DB's. We've all seen the toll it takes on Vick when he takes these hits, so hopefully Shanahan & Co. teach the kid the art of sliding when a linebacker is bearing down on you full bore.

Watching his college tape, all that extra improvisation's are going to get him killed unless he improves his field awareness when scrambling. Spinning around & running in a direction that he wasn't aware of where blitzing defenders are coming from will earn him a spot on "Jacked Up".... Oh wait, the NFL doesn't condone hard hits anymore.

RGIII isn't Michael Vick in stature nor football tendencies. RGIII plays QB first, RB second. RGIII is also built like a safety. Vick is built like a scat back. Comparing them isn't viable.

I don't want RGIII running around at all. But if he must, he's certainly not frail. When Vick runs around its like waiting for a train wreck.

Saying "only" two inches and 10-13 pounds its almost as if you don't think its significant. 10 pounds of muscle is a huge difference. Ever put on 10 pounds of muscle? Good luck and enjoy the enormous difference.

[49ER MAN]

I could see using a 6th or 7th for depth on your QB team, but they used a 4th round pick (their third pick) on their third string QB.

I believe Cousins will be their 3rd string QB for this year and if he can gets a little better, he would become their backup QB in 2013. Also, he is good insurance in case RG3 ends up being a bust. Remember the Packers drafted Brian Brohm and Matt Flynn back in 2008 the year Rodgers took over for Favre. Yes, Rodgers was the QB of the future at that time and I believe Brohm and Flynn were drafted in case Rodgers ended up being a flop.

Best case scenario is RG3 ends up being a star and after a few years, Cousins is trade away for a decent pick or 2. Worst case is RG3 is a bust and Cousins could take over if RG3 is bad enough.

[GreenTD]

Best case scenario is RG3 ends up being a star and after a few years, Cousins is trade away for a decent pick or 2. Worst case is RG3 is a bust and Cousins could take over if RG3 is bad enough.

I agree with you, but when you're mortgaging the future on one player, shouldn't you be surrounding him with talent? Rather then covering your collective arse if he busts or gets hurt, wouldn't it make more sense to take another wide receiver or an offensive linemen to protect him?

[49ER MAN]

I agree with you, but when you're mortgaging the future on one player, shouldn't you be surrounding him with talent? Rather then covering your collective arse if he busts or gets hurt, wouldn't it make more sense to take another wide receiver or an offensive linemen to protect him?

You make a good point about surrounding RG3 with more talent. They resigned Santana Moss, brought in Pierre Garcon and still have Fred Davis and Chris Cooley at TE. Not great talent but not bad either. You can only do so much in one year to help your franchise QB. I would imagine they would draft another WR next year to take over for Santana Moss and also draft some o-linemen as well. I think the Redskins finally got it right by going and getting a potential franchise QB in RG3. It is up to the organization as well as RG3 to make sure he succeeds in the NFL.

[Matt Mueller]

RGIII isn't Michael Vick in stature nor football tendencies. RGIII plays QB first, RB second. RGIII is also built like a safety. Vick is built like a scat back. Comparing them isn't viable.

I don't want RGIII running around at all. But if he must, he's certainly not frail. When Vick runs around its like waiting for a train wreck.

Saying "only" two inches and 10-13 pounds its almost as if you don't think its significant. 10 pounds of muscle is a huge difference. Ever put on 10 pounds of muscle? Good luck and enjoy the enormous difference.

Haven't watched much on RG, nor am I targeting him, but I'm just wondering: It seems most of his value based on a current ADP of around redraft QB #12/13 is the fact that people think he will run and score rushing tds on occasion.

Do you think he will?

[The Football Guru]

Haven't watched much on RG, nor am I targeting him, but I'm just wondering: It seems most of his value based on a current ADP of around redraft QB #12/13 is the fact that people think he will run and score rushing tds on occasion.

Do you think he will?

He will run and he will run well when he does run. But I don't think Shanny (or RG3 himself) want him running so much that ends up pushing Vick's 1,000-yard rushing season from a few years ago. While he has a fair amount of Vick's athleticism in him, RG3 is a more polished passer. I think the Redskins want to use the threat of him running more often than they want him actually running.

I haven't done a projection for him yet, but I'd say 600 yards rushing and five TDs is his ceiling this season. This will not be (or should not become) a Cam Newton situation in which he becomes the GL back.

[Kent]

Haven't watched much on RG, nor am I targeting him, but I'm just wondering: It seems most of his value based on a current ADP of around redraft QB #12/13 is the fact that people think he will run and score rushing tds on occasion.

Do you think he will?

I see RGIII as being a Aaron Rodgers runner. Only much faster. I'd predict Rodgers type rushing TDs. Nothing like Cam where he's a featured runner.

The Skins are going to roll out RGIII with bootlegs a ton. He'll throw more than run in those situations though.