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#1 The Football Guru

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Posted 26 April 2012 - 09:01 PM

Although he was of my favorite "second-round" WR prospects, I'm having a hard time understand why the Niners used the No. 30 overall pick on him. What this picks suggests is that SF is not counting on much production from Randy Moss at all. Jenkins doesn't stand out in one particular area, but his best football is probably ahead of him. With Mario Manningham, Moss and Michael Crabtree ahead of him, Jenkins will probably "enjoy" a redshirt year and contribute on a more regular basis in 2013. As a result, he should go undrafted in redraft leagues. His dynasty stock is also very low as the Niners do not figure to throw the ball around a lot anytime soon.

#2 madd futher mucker

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Posted 26 April 2012 - 09:30 PM

This was the greatest shock in the 1st round by far IMO. It was a mild shock that the 9ers drafted a WR in the first round anyway, but for them to draft Jenkins was even more of a shock. If they were going to take a WR with a somewhat similar skillset, I would have thought that they would draft Cal WR Marvin Jones. To my mind, Jones is a superior WR in virtually every aspect. I wouldn't have been totally shocked if SF had taken Jones, but for them to take the Illinois WR suggests either that I've grossly overestimated Jones or I've grossly underestimated Jenkins.

I was never very high on A J Jenkins and thought that even a second round draft grade would be a reach for him. I agree that he doesn't stand out in any one particular area, and I concluded mainly from the Senior Bowl practices that this is a guy with a reasonably high floor as a WR2, but a very low ceiling...in other words, pretty much maxed out.
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#3 Saint Elistan

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Posted 27 April 2012 - 01:31 AM

According to SI's Peter King, a team with a need at receiver had No. 30 pick A.J. Jenkins rated ahead of Michael Floyd.

Aside from perhaps West Virginia DE/OLB Bruce Irvin at No. 15, Jenkins was the most surprising pick of the first round, but it doesn't appear the 49ers went as far off the grid as some draftniks thought they did. Jenkins' stock was steadily on the rise heading into draft week, though he wasn't expected to go any earlier than late in round two.


- Rotoworld

In Baalke we trust. Everyone questioned Aldon's selection last year too. And Chris Culliver. And Bruce Miller.

Jenkins reminds me a whole lot of Mike Wallace. Goodbye Kyle Williams.
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#4 The Football Guru

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Posted 27 April 2012 - 02:20 AM

One thing is clear: Harbaugh wants to hit a few more deep balls this year. I'm guessing SF put more than a little weight in Jenkins' 2011 tape against Northwestern. I don't agree w/ the Niners going WR in the first either MFM, but it tells me they aren't expecting much from Moss at all RIGHT NOW b/c I don't think they have the luxury of making a pick "for next year". FWIW, I think Jenkins and Floyd are close as prospects and that both players' real (not fantasy) upside is as a WR2.

Check out this link: http://www.csnbayare...694&feedID=5936

Sounds like Jenkins was going to go at 33 had the Niners passed...

#5 DrG

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Posted 28 April 2012 - 11:33 AM

Jenkins came out a year early and has huge hands - still a lot of room on the growth curve - they will gamble for upside. Smart guy also.

#6 madd futher mucker

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Posted 28 April 2012 - 11:54 AM

Jenkins did not come out early; he played his Senior year for ILL and participated in the Shrine game and he received a late invite to the Senior Bowl. He looked very good in the Shrine game, and good in the Senior Bowl. He had avery productive college career, but I can think of several players with more upside. I don't see him ever becoming an NFL stud as a #1 WR for the 9'ers. On the other hand, he is a low risk pick with significant potential to become a starting #2 WR at some point in his career.

His hands are not huge, they are average for a WR. They were measured 3 times and the measurements were between 9 1/4 and 9 1/2 inches. Anything over 10" is considered "huge". Juron Criner's hands are 10 1/2; Jeffrey's and several others are in excess of 10".
I am the Fantasy Football Analyst for RosterWatch.com. Check out my articles there. I also do lots of posts and a season-long season blog on the FFToday Main Board. I'm grateful to Mike FFToday and Alex at Rosterwatch My link for the opportunity to contribute to their great sites.

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#7 DocNiner

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Posted 28 April 2012 - 11:56 AM

Yeah they didn't take him thinking he'll be A.J. Green this year but you never know. Probably will have to wait until his 3rd year to see how the pick turned out. I know it's a pick that puzzled a lot of people, myself included, but I'm putting trust in the Niners drafting guys that will help us reach our ultimate goal, the Superbowl. Heads shook last year with the Aldon Smith pick and he's turning out to be a beast and he'll get better.

We definitely needed to do something at WR as evidenced in the offseason acquisitions of Manningham and retired Randy Moss. Jenkins was taken ahead of guys like Brian Quick, Alshon Jeffery and the massive increase hype of Stephen Hill. So obviously the front office felt Jenkins will be better than those 3 guys. We'll see how good the pick was in a couple of years. So I'll sit back and be patient and have faith the 49ers front office made the right pick at #30.

#8 The Football Guru

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Posted 28 April 2012 - 11:57 AM

Speaking of Criner, I'm a bit surprised he is still out there. I see some Marques Colston in him.

#9 madd futher mucker

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Posted 28 April 2012 - 12:05 PM

Speaking of Criner, I'm a bit surprised he is still out there. I see some Marques Colston in him.


I LOVE Criner - pretty good quicks despite below average speed, my ball mentality who catches everything and great YAC ability. Some team is gonna get a gem of a posession receiver. His combine 4.68 took him out of the conversation as a Friday night special. Yes, I can see where he reminds you of Colston.
I am the Fantasy Football Analyst for RosterWatch.com. Check out my articles there. I also do lots of posts and a season-long season blog on the FFToday Main Board. I'm grateful to Mike FFToday and Alex at Rosterwatch My link for the opportunity to contribute to their great sites.

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#10 DrG

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Posted 28 April 2012 - 04:45 PM

4.68 wont get you to Colston light
The rams were reportedly ready to pounce on Jenkins - I'm content to reserve judgment and see how he turns out.

#11 Saint Elistan

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Posted 01 May 2012 - 10:26 AM

4.37 40 yd. dash at the Combine - (one of the fastest times of any player invited)
38.5" vertical leap - (better than Blackmon, Floyd, Randle, Jeffery, Givens, Sanu, Quick, and M. Jones)
4.12 20 yd. shuttle - (better than Blackmon, Floyd, K Wright, S Hill, Randle, Jeffery, Givens, Sanu, and Quick)
6.73 3-cone drill - (better than Blackmon, Floyd, K Wright, S Hill, Randle, Jeffery, Givens, Sanu, Quick, M. Jones, and Childs)
10'4" broad jump - (better than Blackmon, Floyd, K Wright, Randle, Jeffery, Givens, Sanu, Quick, and M. Jones)


:ninja:
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#12 jgcrawfish

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Posted 01 May 2012 - 01:09 PM

:ninja:


All great stuff if he's playing in his underwear on Sundays (or Mondays, Thursdays or Saturdays) against no one. People take the stats from the underwear olympics a little too seriously IMO.

"All that is necessary for the triumph of evil is that good men do nothing." (Edmund Burke)

#13 Saint Elistan

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Posted 01 May 2012 - 06:03 PM

All great stuff if he's playing in his underwear on Sundays (or Mondays, Thursdays or Saturdays) against no one. People take the stats from the underwear olympics a little too seriously IMO.


Because it doesn't translate to the field at all amiright? :rolleyes:

Why even have a combine if nott one bit of relevant information can be derived from the results?

If AJ had better QB play in his college days he would have been right there in the top 15 on draft day, guaranteed.

2011 Illinois Stats
QBs - 226 Completions, 362 Attempts, 2392 Yards, 14 TDs
A. Jenkins - 90 Receptions, 1276 Yards, 8 TDs
RBs - 550 Attempts, 2232 Yards

Jenkins alone gained 28% percent of their yards last year. That's pretty damn impressive on a team that ran 60% of the time. Nathan Scheelhaase... :dunno:
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#14 jgcrawfish

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Posted 01 May 2012 - 08:16 PM

Because it doesn't translate to the field at all amiright? :rolleyes:

Why even have a combine if nott one bit of relevant information can be derived from the results?

If AJ had better QB play in his college days he would have been right there in the top 15 on draft day, guaranteed.

2011 Illinois Stats
QBs - 226 Completions, 362 Attempts, 2392 Yards, 14 TDs
A. Jenkins - 90 Receptions, 1276 Yards, 8 TDs
RBs - 550 Attempts, 2232 Yards

Jenkins alone gained 28% percent of their yards last year. That's pretty damn impressive on a team that ran 60% of the time. Nathan Scheelhaase... :dunno:


of course, you're not biased and homer's are never wrong about their team's picks. :rolleyes:

"All that is necessary for the triumph of evil is that good men do nothing." (Edmund Burke)

#15 Saint Elistan

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Posted 01 May 2012 - 08:58 PM

Ah, the board equivalent of a mathematician debating a toddler.

Numbers Never Lie...
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#16 e-factor

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Posted 01 May 2012 - 11:34 PM

of course, you're not biased and homer's are never wrong about their team's picks. :rolleyes:


Maybe he just has more faith in one of the best GMs in the game, and a Coach who seems to love the pick. Everything you read about the guy is positive and the word "tough" seems to pop up a lot.

Yet the pick is criticized because he wasn't rated as a first rounder by the draft "experts". Lame...........

#17 jerryskids

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Posted 02 May 2012 - 11:16 PM

:ninja:


So if he was all that in the measurables, why was he not rated as the top WR? :dunno:
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#18 Saint Elistan

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Posted 03 May 2012 - 01:17 PM

So if he was all that in the measurables, why was he not rated as the top WR? :dunno:


6'0" - 190 lbs had something to do with it I'm sure. Other than that, who knows.

San Francisco 49ers Wide Receiver A.J. Jenkins: By the Numbers
http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1168783-new-san-francisco-49ers-wide-receiver-aj-jenkins-by-the-numbers

Illinois compiled a total of 2,392 passing yards in 2011, which was among the worst in the conference. Jenkins represented 1,276 of those yards (53.4 percent). By comparison, Justin Blackmon represented just over 28 percent of Oklahoma State's receiving yards. Total receptions (completions) is where it gets even more interesting. Jenkins' 90 receptions last season represented nearly 40 percent of Illinois total catches compared to Blackmon, who hauled in about 29 percent of Oklahoma State's passes. Even more shocking is the fact that Jenkins represented over 28 percent of Illinois' total offensive output during the 2011 season, compared to 22 percent for Blackmon at Oklahoma State. This while Illinois threw the ball just 40 percent of the time compared to 58 percent for Oklahoma State.

Illinois quarterback Nathan Scheelhaase was far from even a mediocre quarterback last season. He averaged 11.4 yard per completion and just 7.3 yards per attempt. Those numbers increased dramatically when the marginal signal-caller threw in Jenkins' direction (14.2 and 10.7 respectively). In short, Jenkins acted as Illinois' sole deep threat. Consistency was also an issue for the quarterback and the rest of Illinois' passing attack during the 2011 season. The second-leading receiver on the team behind Jenkins was Spencer Harris, who caught just 26 passes.

Defenses schemed to stop Jenkins, but were unable to for the most part. He recorded five 100-yard games, three against Big Ten opponents. In those games Jenkins represented an astounding 69 percent of their receiving yards.


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#19 DrG

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Posted 08 May 2012 - 02:26 PM

Almost looks like an Al Davis pick.

Can Hue Jackson play corner? He sure shut down Heyward-Bey last year!

#20 49ER MAN

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Posted 27 May 2012 - 08:43 AM

Although he was of my favorite "second-round" WR prospects, I'm having a hard time understand why the Niners used the No. 30 overall pick on him. What this picks suggests is that SF is not counting on much production from Randy Moss at all. Jenkins doesn't stand out in one particular area, but his best football is probably ahead of him. With Mario Manningham, Moss and Michael Crabtree ahead of him, Jenkins will probably "enjoy" a redshirt year and contribute on a more regular basis in 2013. As a result, he should go undrafted in redraft leagues. His dynasty stock is also very low as the Niners do not figure to throw the ball around a lot anytime soon.


I have to admit I was a little surprised they went Jenkins at no.30 overall as well. Remember, if the 49ers aren't impressed with Randy Moss, they can cut him at any time with no salary cap implications whatsoever. Crabtree has been a big disappointment and Manningham is more of a no.2 WR rather than a no.1 guy. Moss is only on a one year deal anyway so he's not a long term answer to their need of a big play WR. Jenkins might not play much at all this year assuming Moss pans out but I believe he'll be factor starting next year.

Assuming Moss does pan out, I could see the 49ers start to open up the offense a little bit more as Gore's best days might be behind him and their window of winning a Super Bowl is right now. I think they went as far as they could last year asking Smith not to make the mistakes. Well, Smith has to get better if they want to go the Super Bowl and win it.

#21 Inhiding

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Posted 27 May 2012 - 06:38 PM

I have to admit I was a little surprised they went Jenkins at no.30 overall as well. Remember, if the 49ers aren't impressed with Randy Moss, they can cut him at any time with no salary cap implications whatsoever. Crabtree has been a big disappointment and Manningham is more of a no.2 WR rather than a no.1 guy. Moss is only on a one year deal anyway so he's not a long term answer to their need of a big play WR. Jenkins might not play much at all this year assuming Moss pans out but I believe he'll be factor starting next year.

Assuming Moss does pan out, I could see the 49ers start to open up the offense a little bit more as Gore's best days might be behind him and their window of winning a Super Bowl is right now. I think they went as far as they could last year asking Smith not to make the mistakes. Well, Smith has to get better if they want to go the Super Bowl and win it.


From Eric Branch: Catching Crabs

Michael Crabtree didn't rank among the NFL's top 10 in receptions or reception yardage in 2011. But after the first five games, he produced like a No. 1 wide receiver. Over each wideout's final 11 games of the regular season, here's how Crabtree ranked among the wide receivers who finished among the NFL's top 10 in receptions and yards in 2011:

Receptions

1. Wes Welker, Patriots, 77

2. Percy Harvin, Vikings, 69

T3. Marques Colston, Saints, 68

T3. Roddy White, Falcons, 68

5. Calvin Johnson, Lions, 67

6. Victor Cruz, Giants, 63

7. Michael Crabtree, 49ers, 61

8. Dwayne Bowe, Chiefs, 58

T9. Larry Fitzgerald, Cardinals, 53

T9. Brandon Marshall, Dolphins, 53

11. Steve Smith, Panthers, 52

Yards

1. Calvin Johnson, Lions, 1,230

2. Victor Cruz, Giants, 1,150

3. Larry Fitzgerald, Cardinals, 984

4. Jordy Nelson, Packers, 954

5. Roddy White, Falcons, 944

6. Wes Welker, Patriots, 829

7. Brandon Marshall, Dolphins, 792

8. Steve Smith, Panthers, 785

9. Hakeem Nicks, Giants, 780

10. Michael Crabtree, 49ers, 742

11. Mike Wallace, Steelers, 657




#22 49ER MAN

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Posted 27 May 2012 - 08:48 PM

From Eric Branch: Catching Crabs


Those are encouraging stats but where in the world was he when the 49ers needed him most in the NFC Title Game? Nonexistent. Sure he was better last year but 1 decent season doesn't convince me that he's an elite WR by any stretch of the imagination.

#23 Matt Mueller

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Posted 27 May 2012 - 09:36 PM

As stated shown above, while not scoring many tds, Crabtree produced yards and catches the second half of last year enough to be consistent WR 3 for me in a .5 ppr league.

While I haven't watched many 49ers games I agree that he is not an 'elite' talent and I feel much of his fantasy success last year was based upon situation.

Defenses playing the 49ers looked to take away the run and secondly take away Vernon Davis. When you combine that with Smith mostly game managing games and an influx of 49er WR injuries, he often looked to his safe possession receiver in Crabtree. That can be seen in Crabtree's per catch average dipping from 13.0 year one, 13.5 year two, to 12.1 last year.

With the influx of new WR talent and the 49ers likely knowing that they have to get Smith more comfortable making plays down the field a good bet is that Crabtree won't equal his yardage and reception totals that he put up the second half of last year.

#24 DocNiner

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Posted 28 May 2012 - 08:36 AM

As stated shown above, while not scoring many tds, Crabtree produced yards and catches the second half of last year enough to be consistent WR 3 for me in a .5 ppr league.

While I haven't watched many 49ers games I agree that he is not an 'elite' talent and I feel much of his fantasy success last year was based upon situation.

Defenses playing the 49ers looked to take away the run and secondly take away Vernon Davis. When you combine that with Smith mostly game managing games and an influx of 49er WR injuries, he often looked to his safe possession receiver in Crabtree. That can be seen in Crabtree's per catch average dipping from 13.0 year one, 13.5 year two, to 12.1 last year.

With the influx of new WR talent and the 49ers likely knowing that they have to get Smith more comfortable making plays down the field a good bet is that Crabtree won't equal his yardage and reception totals that he put up the second half of last year.


Yes, you are correct sir. Smith basically was forced to look for Crabtree a lot in the 2nd half of the season. Now, with Smith having several other options I too look for Crabtree's numbers to take a dip. Moss is only there on a year to year performance basis, unless he has attitude problems again, thus AJ Jenkins will step in. I hope Jenkins turns out to be the WR their hoping for as Crabtree hasn't lived up to his expectations but that was a different club then, now Harbaugh is there. I'll give Jenkins the benefit of the doubt and see if he can develop into a decent receiver.

#25 49ER MAN

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Posted 28 May 2012 - 09:42 AM

Yes, you are correct sir. Smith basically was forced to look for Crabtree a lot in the 2nd half of the season. Now, with Smith having several other options I too look for Crabtree's numbers to take a dip. Moss is only there on a year to year performance basis, unless he has attitude problems again, thus AJ Jenkins will step in. I hope Jenkins turns out to be the WR their hoping for as Crabtree hasn't lived up to his expectations but that was a different club then, now Harbaugh is there. I'll give Jenkins the benefit of the doubt and see if he can develop into a decent receiver.


I'll be curious to see how Alex Smith will distribute the ball this year. He does have a lot of weapons at his disposal to say the least. Crabtree scored 3 of his 4 TD's vs the Rams last year. I can only hope Alex can put it all together this year and attempt to start to live up to high expectations.

#26 e-factor

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Posted 28 May 2012 - 09:53 AM

This will be a very telling season for Alex Smith. All the pieces are in place. Good system with the same coaches and a lot of weapons. No more excuses.

Since this is an AJ Jenkins thread, a couple comments.

-Once I heard Harbaugh and Balkke speak about him after the draft, I was excited. Seems to have all the tools and it is definitely a position where they needed a young playmaker to come in, someone who will be around for a while.

-The articles and response to Jenkins coming into camp "out of shape" were blown way out of proportion. He wasn't overweight and he had been working out. He just wasn't in the kind of shape Harbaugh expects out of his players. I think a case of not understanding the expectations. I think the kid gets it now.

#27 49ER MAN

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Posted 28 May 2012 - 10:13 AM

This will be a very telling season for Alex Smith. All the pieces are in place. Good system with the same coaches and a lot of weapons. No more excuses.

Since this is an AJ Jenkins thread, a couple comments.

-Once I heard Harbaugh and Balkke speak about him after the draft, I was excited. Seems to have all the tools and it is definitely a position where they needed a young playmaker to come in, someone who will be around for a while.

-The articles and response to Jenkins coming into camp "out of shape" were blown way out of proportion. He wasn't overweight and he had been working out. He just wasn't in the kind of shape Harbaugh expects out of his players. I think a case of not understanding the expectations. I think the kid gets it now.


I am excited to see what AJ Jenkins can do on the field. I believe there won't be much pressure on him to come in and perform unless Moss is a total bust. Fantasy wise, I wouldn't expect much from him this year but next year, he should start to contribute much more to the team.

#28 e-factor

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Posted 28 May 2012 - 10:58 AM

I am excited to see what AJ Jenkins can do on the field. I believe there won't be much pressure on him to come in and perform unless Moss is a total bust. Fantasy wise, I wouldn't expect much from him this year but next year, he should start to contribute much more to the team.


Agree

#29 GreenTD

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Posted 28 May 2012 - 01:24 PM

This year is going to be difficult for him to produce with all the mouths to feed in SF (Moss, Manningham, Crabtree, Davis, Walker, Gore) so he's nothing more than a late-round flier in redraft leagues. His only chance of producing any meaningful stats is if there's a significant rash of injuries to this receiving corp.

Atleast he gets to work with & learn from some decent receivers so this will help him in the long run. Not to mention he's gonna run "the Hill" with Jerry Rice in the offseasons. Probably going to be a 3-year breakout candidate in 2014.

#30 49ER MAN

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Posted 28 May 2012 - 08:52 PM

This year is going to be difficult for him to produce with all the mouths to feed in SF (Moss, Manningham, Crabtree, Davis, Walker, Gore) so he's nothing more than a late-round flier in redraft leagues. His only chance of producing any meaningful stats is if there's a significant rash of injuries to this receiving corp.

Atleast he gets to work with & learn from some decent receivers so this will help him in the long run. Not to mention he's gonna run "the Hill" with Jerry Rice in the offseasons. Probably going to be a 3-year breakout candidate in 2014.


Be ready to move him up in your rankings if they decide to rid themselves of Moss.

#31 GreenTD

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Posted 28 May 2012 - 09:54 PM

Be ready to move him up in your rankings if they decide to rid themselves of Moss.


Let's say they cut Moss in training camp. With Crabtree & Manningham ahead of him on the depth chart, where would you draft him in a redraft league? What kind of stats do you think he can put up realistically his rookie season?

#32 49ER MAN

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Posted 29 May 2012 - 09:30 PM

Let's say they cut Moss in training camp. With Crabtree & Manningham ahead of him on the depth chart, where would you draft him in a redraft league? What kind of stats do you think he can put up realistically his rookie season?


I could see 500 yards and 4 TD's if Moss doesn't make the team. In a redraft league, I'd take him as my 4th or 5th WR late in the draft. I think the 49ers have to open it up a little this year, especially if they want to make it to the Super Bowl.