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Talk me out of taking Arian Foster at 1?


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#1 Jesus Christ

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Posted 06 June 2012 - 07:50 AM

Draft isn't until 3rd week of August but outside of a off season injury do I even need to debate Foster at 1 or is it a done deal? Is my prep already done, relax on the 1st pick and start focusing on my picks after?

Anyone not going Foster? Why?

Negatives I see:
- Ben Tate (steal carries)
- replaced two OL
- AJ injury prone (focus on run) and no other true WR threat
- Schaub coming back from injury
- can he do it 3 years in a row?
Resistance is Flutie!

#2 420allstars

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Posted 06 June 2012 - 08:16 AM

this is actually one of the years where there is no clear cut number one IMO. I think you cant go wrong with Rice, Shaddy or Forster

but since your asking I would take Foster #1

or try to trade back to number 3 :dunno:

#3 GreenTD

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Posted 06 June 2012 - 08:19 AM

A preseason injury would be the only way I'd remove him from my #1 overall ranking. For all the reasons you stated, the only one to monitor would be the play of that re-toiled offensive line during pre-season. If Schaub is healthy & AJ bounces back from his recent knee scope, Foster is the choice.

The only way I'd take Rice or McCoy over Foster would be if I was a Ravens/Eagles homer. I'm a big Ray Rice fan but there's no way I'd value him over Foster in regards to fantasy football.

#4 GreenTD

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Posted 06 June 2012 - 08:22 AM

this is actually one of the years where there is no clear cut number one IMO. I think you cant go wrong with Rice, Shaddy or Forster

but since your asking I would take Foster #1

or try to trade back to number 3 :dunno:


I agree, the #3 spot is going to be the most coveted spot in drafts this season because you get one of the top 3 backs without having to mull over the tough decision.

#5 Frozenbeernuts

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Posted 06 June 2012 - 08:44 AM

I agree, the #3 spot is going to be the most coveted spot in drafts this season because you get one of the top 3 backs without having to mull over the tough decision.

5 hole is the best imo. You get the remainder of foster, rice, mccoy, calvin, rodgers.

We all know though that the first 5 picks never end up as the top 5 fantasy players. Usually there is at least 1 or 2 that end up being a big disappointment (usually due to injury). So who is it this year?

Also why would you not consider rice to be greater than foster? He finiahed as the top back last year, still has vonte leach, and did not lose 2 offensive lineman from the previous year. Imo rice is a little bit safer while foster has a little more upside.

I do put foster at #1, especially over rodgers or calvin just because having the top back is a big advantage especially with the crap shoot the second rnd brings.

#6 Stewburtx8

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Posted 06 June 2012 - 08:48 AM

I would be very happy with any of the top 3 RB's. But in standard scoring (in PPR I could make a case for Rice), I think you take Foster. He's shown over the last 2 years that his ceiling is higher than anyone elses.

#7 Mustard Lover

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Posted 06 June 2012 - 09:01 AM

I agree, the #3 spot is going to be the most coveted spot in drafts this season because you get one of the top 3 backs without having to mull over the tough decision.



We just did our draft order lottery in a 12 team Dynasty start-up and I have the 3rd pick. Aaron Rodgers is going 1st overall barring disaster in preseason and Brady will probably go second. If he doesn't go Brady at 2 It'll probably be Rice. I'm leaning towards Foster and I like Shaddy alot, but not enough to blind me from the fact that Arian Foster is the most complete RB in the NFL; move over AP. I would make the previous statement even if he didn't have the injury.
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#8 GreenTD

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Posted 06 June 2012 - 09:38 AM

We just did our draft order lottery in a 12 team Dynasty start-up and I have the 3rd pick. Aaron Rodgers is going 1st overall barring disaster in preseason and Brady will probably go second. If he doesn't go Brady at 2 It'll probably be Rice. I'm leaning towards Foster and I like Shaddy alot, but not enough to blind me from the fact that Arian Foster is the most complete RB in the NFL; move over AP. I would make the previous statement even if he didn't have the injury.


Why would someone take Brady #2 overall in a dynasty start-up? I would think with your 1st pick you'd wanna select someone that has age on their side so they become the centerpiece for your team.

#9 Mustard Lover

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Posted 06 June 2012 - 11:22 AM

Why would someone take Brady #2 overall in a dynasty start-up? I would think with your 1st pick you'd wanna select someone that has age on their side so they become the centerpiece for your team.


We've all known eachother for about 15 years and have been playing in another re-draft league for almost ten years. He's never had a stud QB and he's watched as several of us have dominated with top QB's like Rodgers/Brady/Brees and doesn't want to be left behind again. We're using some of the rules of a league that somebody posted here, I think its MFM's blueprint where you have guys on three year contracts. He may even go with Brees, but I'm 99% he's going with QB. I think the logic is fine, the top QB's in our points system score upwards of 100 total points more than the top RB's. So for a three year window he's thinking this guy alone will win him weeks. I've won and lost with the best QB so I'm not as concerned with shoring up that QB pick early on as I am with a stud RB. Rodgers would tempt me if he were available at 3, but I agree with you, I don't want to go into a 3 year stint with my top RB being the calliber of whats available at pick 22. I hope that by some miracle Stafford will be there in round two or I'll just wait until later and pair M. Ryan and RG3.
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#10 GreenTD

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Posted 06 June 2012 - 12:37 PM

We've all known eachother for about 15 years and have been playing in another re-draft league for almost ten years. He's never had a stud QB and he's watched as several of us have dominated with top QB's like Rodgers/Brady/Brees and doesn't want to be left behind again. We're using some of the rules of a league that somebody posted here, I think its MFM's blueprint where you have guys on three year contracts. He may even go with Brees, but I'm 99% he's going with QB. I think the logic is fine, the top QB's in our points system score upwards of 100 total points more than the top RB's. So for a three year window he's thinking this guy alone will win him weeks. I've won and lost with the best QB so I'm not as concerned with shoring up that QB pick early on as I am with a stud RB. Rodgers would tempt me if he were available at 3, but I agree with you, I don't want to go into a 3 year stint with my top RB being the calliber of whats available at pick 22. I hope that by some miracle Stafford will be there in round two or I'll just wait until later and pair M. Ryan and RG3.


Agreed ML. I've won championships with & without a top quarterback but I'm sure they've rarely lacked a top 5 running back as the centerpiece. I usually prefer waiting until the 5th round before selecting a quarterback. Building depth & having reliable starters at RB & WR are more important to my draft strategy than a stud quarterback.

In a dynasty situation, I can understand why an owner would want a stud quarterback that is going to have to lead his squad for 3 years or more. With the depth of the quarterback situation this season & plenty of younger options available later in the draft, I'd be inclined to select someone out of the Foster, Rice & McCoy group.

#11 travis_henrys_baby_momma

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Posted 06 June 2012 - 01:32 PM

I have no problem talking you out of Foster.

I would love to play in a league where people would blindly take Foster at #1. You are more likely to wreck your season with the #1 pick than win the title.

The original poster pointed out a number of risks with Foster. One risk that he didn't mention is that Foster got paid. Look how Chris Johnson and others have played after they got paid. I love the Arian Foster story, but to me, Foster has the attitude of a player who might not play as hard now that his financial security is assured. Plus the Texans always seem to have horrible luck and are usually on the verge of complete collapse.

Ray Rice on the other hand, is simply a hard core football player with a ridiculous work ethic who always plays hard. That's why he is admired by coaches and players. And with his body frame he is less likely to get hurt.

Further, Cam Cameron's offense features the RB and always produces a top fantasy RB (LaDainian, Ronnie Brown (until he got hurt), and Ray Ray.)

An experienced, risk averse player seeking guaranteed results from the #1 pick will take Ray Ray's, all but guaranteed floor, of 2000 total yards and 10 TDs all day long over the risk-riddled Arian Foster.

#12 Stewburtx8

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Posted 06 June 2012 - 02:21 PM

Ray Rice isn't happy with his contract situation. He will either get paid as well before the season or enter the season unhappy with his contract. I think trying to predict how guys will play "after they get paid" is a useless venture. Lesean McCoy got paid this offseason as well. Should we just avoid guys after they get paid because they might not perform up to expectations? The Chris Johnson situation was totally different because he held out until the last minute and wasn't prepared for the season in my opinion.

"The Texans have horrible luck and are usually on the verge of complete collapse." Huh? That's a reason to not take Foster? Foster was really good the last two years regardless of the Texans "luck". Everyone said Foster would struggle without Vonta Leach, yet he went out and put up similar per game numbers as he did in 2010. And the Texans might of won the Super Bowl last year if Matt Schaub was healthy. They are a good football team.

I'm not saying Ray Rice is a bad pick at #1, but I think you are just creating risk with Arian Foster that is not there. Arian Foster always plays hard as well. Foster has been the best RB in football for the last two years. I don't think there is any reason to "talk someone out of" Arian Foster.

#13 Portis26

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Posted 06 June 2012 - 02:56 PM

There is a guy in Tenn with a chip on his shoulders .. He will be back to his old CJ2K form!

#14 travis_henrys_baby_momma

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Posted 06 June 2012 - 03:41 PM

Yards and TDs for Cam Cameron's featured RB since he got his first OC gig in 2002. Ten straight years of pretty ridiculous numbers. If you think Foster is going to be sooooo much better than a guaranteed 2000 total yards and 10 TDs then go ahead and draft him at #1.


 2002-03 LaDainian 2172 15
 2003-04 LaDainian 2370 17
 2004-05 LaDainian 1776 18
 2005-06 LaDainian 1832 20
 2006-07 LaDainian 2323 31
2007-08 Ronnie Brown (7 games) 991 5
 2008-09 McLain and McGahee 1869 18
 2009-10 Ray Rice 2041 8
 2010-11 Ray Rice 1776 6
 2011-12 Ray Rice 2068 15

#15 stonewall

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Posted 06 June 2012 - 08:49 PM

Foster is as safe as anyone. He has proven himself. Funny to see a guy going #1 that I got late in the draft just 2 years ago.

Note to self: Find this years Foster or Gronk.

I feel my football knowledge is vastly superior to my opponents. I also am just in general, a smarter person. These two things should allow me a huge advantage. But I've yet to be truly dominant.


#16 Giants Fan

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Posted 07 June 2012 - 02:45 AM

Depends on scoring, Obv. You may want to take Aaron Rodgers.

If RB is the clear way to go, just pick who has the easiest schedule: AP, Foster or Rice.

BTW .... that's a really good question. Of those 3 guys, who has the easiest run defense schedule?

ETA: I once took Peyton Manning #2 overall. Co-managing a team, and with 4 point passing TDs we decided he would be the highest scoring player that year, and he was. You should take the player that you think will score the most points in your system.
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#17 Reality

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Posted 07 June 2012 - 02:51 AM

The only choice for me is between Rice and Foster. I'll take Foster, wouldn't have a problem with anybody taking Rice though.

#18 polecatt

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Posted 07 June 2012 - 05:33 AM

If I had first pick I would be tempted to take Rodgers. If not it would be Foster. If you need to know why then just look at the points Rodgers scored on a weekly basis last season. No reason to think he'll drop off much at all. Most of the leagues I was in last year, the champion had 1 thing in common and that was their QB Aaron Rodgers. QBs are less likely to get injured as well.

#19 Giants Fan

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Posted 07 June 2012 - 06:07 AM

If I had first pick I would be tempted to take Rodgers. If not it would be Foster. If you need to know why then just look at the points Rodgers scored on a weekly basis last season. No reason to think he'll drop off much at all. Most of the leagues I was in last year, the champion had 1 thing in common and that was their QB Aaron Rodgers. QBs are less likely to get injured as well.


Part of the problem is, your next pick is not until the end of the 2nd round. Rogers (and prolly 3 or 4 other QBs) will be gone by then. if you take a WR there, forget it ...... you got a scrub QB all year long .... because nobody is gonna trade an Aaron Rogers, for anything less than Arian Foster.

I'd try and trade down .... this year in particular. The 5th pick in the first round has similar value to the first pick. The 12th pick in the second round, is a totally different tier of players.
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#20 FeelingMN

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Posted 07 June 2012 - 09:33 AM

The way our league is set up, you can only keep 3 of the same players once in consecutive years. In 2010 I drafted Ray Rice, Calvin Johnson, and Arian Foster. I was able to keep those three guys in 2011 too. :first:

Anyway, I can only keep one in 2012. I'm keeping Foster. The only thing that worries me is the loss of the linemen. Aside from that, I can pretty much count on Foster for double digit points every week, with the occasional 30 point performance. Rice is good, and if I were forced to keep him instead I wouldn't mind at all. But dude can put up some pretty weak lines every so often.

Add to that the Texans play in a weaker division, arguably have a better team with a better defense and were the most run centric team in the league last year. Could be lots of opportunity for clock killing yards in the 4th. As far has him getting paid....did you see his reaction at the presser? Dude is humbled and I think he'll continue to work hard.

There are no sure things in FF, but Foster has proven the last two years that he will produce consistently when given the chance and has had less variability with his TD totals than both McCoy and Rice. All good backs, but give me Foster to build my team around.

I made it for 5 seconds. No focking way I want to see this. I can watch the human death with little problem, but not this sh1t. I can watch a beheading or folks being burned alive, but this sh1t gets me.


#21 travis_henrys_baby_momma

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Posted 07 June 2012 - 09:44 AM

Drafting Rodgers at #1 is just plain stupid. Sorry.

Drew Brees is the ONLY QB where you can safely say "don't expect much of a drop off" following a monster season. Study this list of the TOP 50 seasons for QBs in terms of TD passes:

http://www.sportscit...assing-Leaders/

Every QB has faltered the next season. Brees is the only exception....with his past four seasons ALL ranking in the top 27 seasons of all time.

Brees is a stud and I have never owned him, sigh.

#22 Bishop82

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Posted 07 June 2012 - 10:12 AM

Just trade down a few spots and take Eddie George.

Everything else will work itself out. :pointstosky:
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#23 MDC

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Posted 07 June 2012 - 10:49 AM

I have no problem talking you out of Foster.

I would love to play in a league where people would blindly take Foster at #1. You are more likely to wreck your season with the #1 pick than win the title.

The original poster pointed out a number of risks with Foster. One risk that he didn't mention is that Foster got paid. Look how Chris Johnson and others have played after they got paid. I love the Arian Foster story, but to me, Foster has the attitude of a player who might not play as hard now that his financial security is assured. Plus the Texans always seem to have horrible luck and are usually on the verge of complete collapse.

Ray Rice on the other hand, is simply a hard core football player with a ridiculous work ethic who always plays hard. That's why he is admired by coaches and players. And with his body frame he is less likely to get hurt.

Further, Cam Cameron's offense features the RB and always produces a top fantasy RB (LaDainian, Ronnie Brown (until he got hurt), and Ray Ray.)

An experienced, risk averse player seeking guaranteed results from the #1 pick will take Ray Ray's, all but guaranteed floor, of 2000 total yards and 10 TDs all day long over the risk-riddled Arian Foster.


Arian got paid. So did LeSean. Rice didn't get paid, which if anything increases the chance of a holdout or a backup taking extensive carries.

I'd take Foster #1 overall.
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#24 RaiderHater's Revenge

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Posted 07 June 2012 - 08:18 PM

if trading down is a possiblity, drop down to 5 and take Mathews, you will get equal production and a better 2nd imo

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12 Team  PPR w/return yards, 2 LB, Superflex (QB)
QB- Ryan (T)
RB- Ball (3), Ellington (4)
WR- Julio (2), C. Patterson (T)
TE- Ertz (12)
Flex- R. Wilson (6)

K- Prater (17), Novak (16)
Bench- R. Jennings (7), Moreno (T), Decker (10), Hilton (11), Benjamin (13), 

LB- Kuelchy(9), Kendricks (15)

Def- Buff (14)

traded Brees, Joique and Mike Floyd for Ryan, Patterson and Moreno


#25 sirensong

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Posted 07 June 2012 - 08:47 PM

if trading down is a possiblity, drop down to 5 and take Mathews, you will get equal production and a better 2nd imo


this has loomed large in my thinking lately.

#26 Giants Fan

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Posted 07 June 2012 - 09:17 PM

The year I took Manning at #2 ,,,, was the same year Colston was a rookie, And we were on Yahoo .... he was the best TE .... because he was really a WR.

We missed the Superbowl by less than 1 point,

But we crushed everybody .... all year.

Aaron Rogers is not gonna be there at the end of the second ,,, ya know.
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#27 GreenTD

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Posted 07 June 2012 - 09:27 PM

The year I took Manning at #2 ,,,, was the same year Colston was a rookie, And we were on Yahoo .... he was the best TE .... because he was really a WR.

We missed the Superbowl by less than 1 point,

But we crushed everybody .... all year.

Aaron Rogers is not gonna be there at the end of the second ,,, ya know.


Was your co-manager your cat, Fluffy? Kinda curious....

#28 We Tigers

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Posted 09 June 2012 - 05:13 PM

He'd be my #1, but I admit to some bias, as I hold him in a keeper league. I can see the argument for Rice and McCoy being a touch safer since they had less offensive line turnover in the offseason. McCoy, of course, may have a little more swing in his potential TDs if Vick gets back to scoring inside the 10 this year. Those mediocre-to-awful AFC South rush defenses look really nice 5 times a year, though, making me think Foster is still the way to go.

#29 Doozer

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Posted 09 June 2012 - 09:32 PM

I'm not going to talk you out of it, if he plays he's a stud. This talk about trading down is bogus... Ryan Matthews will get you same production as Foster... bold statement.

#30 bc91

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Posted 16 August 2012 - 04:44 PM

I wouldnt draft him because I dont want to spend a 7th on TATE!! Still some good WR available in the 7th.... hate handcuffs

#31 GobbleDog

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Posted 16 August 2012 - 05:13 PM

He's good, but meh... I miss the good old days where if you drafted the #1 RB, you were guaranteed insane points from the likes of Marshal Faulk and LT.

Foster seems like the best pick given his history and situation, but even if he does finish with highest points I doubt it'll be much more than the 5th best RB. And that's assuming he finishes #1.

#32 BUCKEYES

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Posted 16 August 2012 - 08:56 PM

I have the first pick as well and I think I am going to get laughed at when I make my selection. I have Matthew Stafford and Gronk as my keepers and even though I need a great RB, Calvin Johnson may be the answer for me. I think it just comes down to your leagues scoring. With the NFL gearing towards the passing game, Calvin has got to get some strong looks at #1.

Like I said, I will probably get laughed out of the draft and off of this board for this thinking!

#33 aaaa

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Posted 16 August 2012 - 09:05 PM

Foster will get injured and you'll wish you took Rodgers.