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Follow Along Experts Mock Draft


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#1 Mike MacGregor

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Posted 12 June 2012 - 09:45 AM

The mock drafts they are a hoppin'. Or at least starting to. Once again I am participating in a series of monthly mock drafts run by FF Toolbox with other notable fantasy football websites. The first in the series, June, just kicked off this morning and I've got the 4th pick in the draft. Here is the draft report:

http://football33.myfantasyleague.com/2012/options?L=33319&O=17

To no one's surprise, Foster, McCoy and Rice are the first three off the board. Feel free to follow along and comment with suggestions and/or critique of the picks. I'll make this pick shortly after I get Draft Buddy set up.

#2 The Next Generation

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Posted 12 June 2012 - 09:55 AM

R Matthews or Megatron
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#3 Mike MacGregor

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Posted 12 June 2012 - 10:03 AM

If I go purely by Krueger's projections and Draft Buddy, it is telling me Matthews. If I go by what my own brain is telling me, Calvin would be the choice.

#4 mobb_deep

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Posted 12 June 2012 - 10:05 AM

If you go RB, I'd go DMAC over Matthews. If you're going to take an RB with injury and toughness questions, take the more talented RB. DMAC is 5 times the RB Mathews is.

I'd probably go Calvin too though.

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#5 The Next Generation

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Posted 12 June 2012 - 10:14 AM

If I go by what my own brain is telling me, Calvin would be the choice.

Yeah...I was leaning his way as well.
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#6 Mike MacGregor

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Posted 12 June 2012 - 10:17 AM

For kicks, let's side with Krueger and go with Mathews here, and see how this plays out. There will be a run on WR, plus Graham and Gronk, Rodgers and maybe 1-2 more QB, plus 4-6 RB before my next pick.

Edit to add: I would absolutely go with Calvin here if this was a real draft. Just want to see how it turns out going against my instincts.

Edited by Mike MacGregor, 12 June 2012 - 10:18 AM.


#7 Matt Mueller

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Posted 12 June 2012 - 01:07 PM

For kicks, let's side with Krueger and go with Mathews here, and see how this plays out. There will be a run on WR, plus Graham and Gronk, Rodgers and maybe 1-2 more QB, plus 4-6 RB before my next pick.

Edit to add: I would absolutely go with Calvin here if this was a real draft. Just want to see how it turns out going against my instincts.


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#8 Mustard Lover

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Posted 12 June 2012 - 01:48 PM

I don't understand taking Calvin 4th overall, if you're going to gamble on taking your RB1 on the way back, you should gamble on a guy like Rodgers/Brees/Brady that will end the year with upwards of 100 more fantasy points for the year than Megatron. So many recievers out there...
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#9 Mike MacGregor

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Posted 12 June 2012 - 01:53 PM

I don't know M.L. The thing is I think I can argue there is Calvin and then everyone else at WR better than I can differentiate the top QBs. I do like Rodgers a lot and would take him 1st, but I don't have him so far ahead of Brady, for one, personally. Seems to me it is a better value proposition waiting at QB a little instead of taking a 1st round QB.

#10 Matt Mueller

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Posted 12 June 2012 - 01:58 PM

I don't understand taking Calvin 4th overall, if you're going to gamble on taking your RB1 on the way back, you should gamble on a guy like Rodgers/Brees/Brady that will end the year with upwards of 100 more fantasy points for the year than Megatron. So many recievers out there...


Agreed about the so many receivers out there thing. I think the idea is that Calvin is likely score a bigger point differential than say wrs 24-36 where as the scoring difference between Rodgers/Brees/Brady and Romo/Eli/Ryan isn't quite as big.

It's not always about how many fantasy points you score. It's about how much of a difference there is between your stud and replacement level value.


That said there a ###### ton of starter worthy wrs without huge questions regarding there opportunity or health. The same can't be said for rbs.

#11 Mustard Lover

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Posted 12 June 2012 - 02:04 PM

I don't know M.L. The thing is I think I can argue there is Calvin and then everyone else at WR better than I can differentiate the top QBs. I do like Rodgers a lot and would take him 1st, but I don't have him so far ahead of Brady, for one, personally. Seems to me it is a better value proposition waiting at QB a little instead of taking a 1st round QB.



The drop from Calvin is big and I agree about the QB depth(Matt Ryan's year?), if I were in your shoes the choice would be between Rodgers and ChrisJ.
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#12 Mike MacGregor

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Posted 13 June 2012 - 10:09 AM

Day 2, Round 2, and I'm up in 3 picks. Who do you guys like and why?

#13 TwentyFourSeven

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Posted 13 June 2012 - 10:54 AM

Personally, I'd go with Marshawn Lynch. Lock up your two starting RBs.

#14 Mike MacGregor

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Posted 13 June 2012 - 11:23 AM

Thanks 24/7. As a Bills fan, hard to put faith in Lynch, but he was amazing through the last half of last year, and got to love the commitment to the run by the Seahawks.

#15 GreenTD

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Posted 13 June 2012 - 11:53 AM

If Lynch is available, he's got to be the pick. Safe & reliable plus you'd have your running backs locked up.

In the event he gets snatched up, I think you have to consider Brees or Brady. None of the wideouts available stand out from the available players. Jennings is my favorite of the next available but I don't think he presents the same value.

Your thoughts Mike?

#16 Stewburtx8

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Posted 13 June 2012 - 12:20 PM

Is this based on PPR scoring or non-PPR scoring? I'll assume non-PPR although Fitz going 1.08 and Welker going 2.04 makes me think maybe not.

I think I'd roll the dice with Adrian Peterson. Marshawn Lynch would be my 2nd choice and is probably a lot safer.

If you want to switch it up and go WR here, then I think Greg Jennings is the pick. I'm not usually a big QB guy early in a draft, but I think Drew Brees does present some value at this point as well.

#17 GreenTD

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Posted 13 June 2012 - 12:29 PM

Is this based on PPR scoring or non-PPR scoring? I'll assume non-PPR although Fitz going 1.08 and Welker going 2.04 makes me think maybe not.

I think I'd roll the dice with Adrian Peterson. Marshawn Lynch would be my 2nd choice and is probably a lot safer.

If you want to switch it up and go WR here, then I think Greg Jennings is the pick. I'm not usually a big QB guy early in a draft, but I think Drew Brees does present some value at this point as well.


If I wanted AP, I'd probably take Jennings or Brady/Brees & hope AP slides to the 3.04 pick. I can't imagine him getting snagged by one of the 1.1-1.3 owners based on his current ADP & where he went in the FFToday June Mock.

#18 TwentyFourSeven

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Posted 13 June 2012 - 12:33 PM

Thanks 24/7. As a Bills fan, hard to put faith in Lynch, but he was amazing through the last half of last year, and got to love the commitment to the run by the Seahawks.


Steelers fan my whole life, but lived in Buffalo my whole life (weird, I know), So I know what you mean with Lynch. I just don't think with their QB situation in Seattle they will even try a little bit to get away from the running game. Lynch is the guy, meaning you have 2 workhorse RBs which are hard to come by.

If he's gone, I might take a chance on Peterson as well. Things sound like he's moving along great and even if he starts the season slow, he'll get it together.

#19 TwentyFourSeven

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Posted 13 June 2012 - 12:35 PM

If I wanted AP, I'd probably take Jennings or Brady/Brees & hope AP slides to the 3.04 pick. I can't imagine him getting snagged by one of the 1.1-1.3 owners based on his current ADP & where he went in the FFToday June Mock.


That's a good point too. AP could slide a few more picks so you could get him then at even better value.

#20 Mike MacGregor

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Posted 13 June 2012 - 12:51 PM

It looks like we are up. Last two picks were Brady and Murray.

Stewburtx8 - it is PPR

When I was looking at the options prior to those last two picks, my cheatsheet provided an interesting conundrum. It showed the following available:

1. Two, Tier 2 QBs, Brady and Stafford. Krueger has Brees projected 20 points lower than Brady and 10 points lower than Stafford, which mathematically put him into the next tier.

2. One RB left in the highest available tier, Lynch.

3. One WR left in the highest available tier, Roddy White.

Looking beyond the projected numbers, if I was going to go QB I would want Brady, otherwise I won't pay this price for a QB. Many like Brees over Brady (and Stafford is in the discussion), but for me it is Brady with a clear path for another stellar season vs. Brees with some mild red flags vs. Stafford who I don't trust as much be it staying healthy or having a shorter track record. If Brady was available he would be very tempting. But then one has to wonder if the next three drafters will all pass at QB simply because they don't believe in taking a QB this high. It is possible.

I could double up at RB. I don't love that idea generally because if value falls at RB later in the draft (and this is the position it is most likely to happen), we can't take advantage of it as well. Looking at the remaining names after Lynch though - Sproles, Bradshaw, Jackson (S. and F.), Peterson - all carry more risk than Lynch would seem to in his current situation. I do think Peterson is being overvalued in drafts this year given where I think he probably is with his rehab. Krueger has him projected down at RB26. He's worth taking a chance higher than that, but maybe not by much.

At WR, White is projected a good bit ahead of Cruz, Colston, Steve Smith, Wallace. It has to be due to receptions vs. the other guys. Can't say I agree with Krueger having Greg Jennings further down the list at WR11. A.J. Green is WR14. All in all, looks like I'm pretty equal on a lot of these WRs even though my cheatsheet has White ahead of the pack. New OC and Julio Jones looked pretty damn good to cause some risk banking on White as the clear cut favorite here.

So, with all the pluses and minuses of those thoughts, Lynch is the pick.

Draft Buddy has White as highest value on the board, then Lynch. I'll double up at RB though and see where it takes us.

Now does anyone who was leaning RB back in the 1st prefer Calvin at that pick, or doesn't make a difference (yet)?

#21 Mike MacGregor

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Posted 13 June 2012 - 02:20 PM

Up in 3 picks again. Since our Lynch pick, Roddy, AP, Sproles, Brees have gone. I think that takes QB out of consideration for us. I'd rather a WR at this pick + another QB over Stafford + a later drafted WR - as our WR1!

Looking at the available WR, there is Cruz, Colston, Steve Smith, Mike Wallace, Greg Jennings, Austin, A.J. Green.

#22 TwentyFourSeven

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Posted 13 June 2012 - 02:52 PM

Up in 3 picks again. Since our Lynch pick, Roddy, AP, Sproles, Brees have gone. I think that takes QB out of consideration for us. I'd rather a WR at this pick + another QB over Stafford + a later drafted WR - as our WR1!

Looking at the available WR, there is Cruz, Colston, Steve Smith, Mike Wallace, Greg Jennings, Austin, A.J. Green.


I think either Wallace, A.J. Green, Greg Jennings or maybe Steve Smith.

Hmmm... starting to get tough.

EDIT: Take out Jennings as he's taken now.

Wallace, A.J. Green or Steve Smith. I think a case could be made for all of them & against them.

#23 420allstars

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Posted 13 June 2012 - 03:15 PM

I think either Wallace, A.J. Green, Greg Jennings or maybe Steve Smith.

Hmmm... starting to get tough.

EDIT: Take out Jennings as he's taken now.

Wallace, A.J. Green or Steve Smith. I think a case could be made for all of them & against them.


Take AJ Green, Highest ceiling IMO

#24 kcBlitzkrieg

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Posted 13 June 2012 - 04:00 PM

I know Wallace had a subpar second half of the season last year but I am not one for knocking him down so far on the WR rankings. AJ is a great young talent but I disagree with AJ's ceiling being higher this year.

Wallace was playing with an beat up and injured QB during that stretch. He has an offensive coordinator with a proven track record of putting up big numbers for his QB & both wideouts in his system. Steelers oline will be the best they've had in years which will only help Ben get the ball to his #1 wr. Yes everyone expects the Steelers to run more this year but again, that should only help open things up for the passing game.

I like what Gruden did for the Bengals passing game last year and yes they have added help on the other side of the field for AJ with the new wideouts. Green is a good solid option but I just feel Wallace has a greater potential for bigger numbers this year, mainly in yardage.


Wallace over AJ for me here...

#25 Stewburtx8

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Posted 13 June 2012 - 04:17 PM

In PPR leagues, I'm not a huge Mike Wallace fan. I don't see him getting over the 72 catches he had last year. Even guys like Brandon Marshall or Percy Harvin will probably get 15-20 more receptions than him. That's equivalent to 150-200 yards or 2-3 TD's. Makes a big difference.

I actually like those two guys here, but one of them may be available at your next pick. I doubt Marshall, but maybe Harvin. If I'm picking between Wallace, Green, S.Smith, Colston, Cruz; then I'd go AJ Green. But I do like the upside of Brandon Marshall in this spot in PPR with the potential to catch 90-100 balls again playing with Cutler. Green is probably the safer pick though.

#26 kcBlitzkrieg

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Posted 13 June 2012 - 04:55 PM

In PPR leagues, I'm not a huge Mike Wallace fan. I don't see him getting over the 72 catches he had last year. Even guys like Brandon Marshall or Percy Harvin will probably get 15-20 more receptions than him. That's equivalent to 150-200 yards or 2-3 TD's. Makes a big difference.

I actually like those two guys here, but one of them may be available at your next pick. I doubt Marshall, but maybe Harvin. If I'm picking between Wallace, Green, S.Smith, Colston, Cruz; then I'd go AJ Green. But I do like the upside of Brandon Marshall in this spot in PPR with the potential to catch 90-100 balls again playing with Cutler. Green is probably the safer pick though.


I'm not a huge Wallace fan either but I do feel he will be in the lower 80 catch range with Haley coordinating the offense. That said I do like the Brandon Marshall idea and picking up Harvin in the next round. We all know how long its been since Chicago had a viable option at wideout. I like the potential the Cutler/Marshall/Bates reunion has for 90-100 catches.

#27 TwentyFourSeven

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Posted 13 June 2012 - 05:37 PM

I'd take one of the guys previously mentioned, then gamble that Harvin is there in the next round. That does sound like a fine idea.

#28 Mike MacGregor

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Posted 13 June 2012 - 06:40 PM

Unfortunate Jennings got nabbed because I think he was the easy choice amongst the WR options. I'm not a true believer in Cruz. He's the highest projected WR on the board, but only by a point over Colston. A.J. Green is conservatively projected 30 points behind those guys, but I do agree with the consensus here that he is the pick here. He won't make it back, and he is a rare talent. Guess we need to double cross our fingers no sophomore slump for him or Dalton, impacting Green.

#29 420allstars

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Posted 14 June 2012 - 05:29 AM

Unfortunate Jennings got nabbed because I think he was the easy choice amongst the WR options. I'm not a true believer in Cruz. He's the highest projected WR on the board, but only by a point over Colston. A.J. Green is conservatively projected 30 points behind those guys, but I do agree with the consensus here that he is the pick here. He won't make it back, and he is a rare talent. Guess we need to double cross our fingers no sophomore slump for him or Dalton, impacting Green.


AJ Green could be = Mega in another year or two.. Dalton will be the only thing that could hold him back!

#30 Mike MacGregor

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Posted 14 June 2012 - 07:33 AM

Hard for me to go for a 2nd year player as my WR1, but you guys convinced me. Now the long wait. We'll look/hope for someone like Harvin or Nicks to come back to us.

#31 GreenTD

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Posted 14 June 2012 - 07:38 AM

AJ Green for the win!

#32 Mike MacGregor

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Posted 14 June 2012 - 07:46 AM

Ha. Never mind about Nicks, as he is already gone just 2 picks after Green.

#33 420allstars

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Posted 14 June 2012 - 11:57 AM

Ha. Never mind about Nicks, as he is already gone just 2 picks after Green.


I was thinking there was no way he was going to make it back.. Injury news is all looking pretty positive.. great value where he was taken IMO

#34 TwentyFourSeven

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Posted 14 June 2012 - 03:26 PM

What's everyone thinking for the next pick? Up in 3.

EDIT: Just saw the last 3 picks have been made & Harvin indeed did fall to FFToday. Nice!

#35 Mike MacGregor

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Posted 14 June 2012 - 07:55 PM

Yes, that was sweet! When there were 5 or 6 picks to go I predrafted Harvin, Colston, Smith. Smith quickly snapped up, then Colson. Really was getting nervous we weren't going to get our guy.

I'm about to walk into the movie Prometheus. Who's next? Would have been tempted by Martin if he hadn't been taken. I was planning on Vick here way back but he didn't slip. Without looking at they cheatsheets I'm thinking Gates. Who does everyone like?

#36 TwentyFourSeven

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Posted 14 June 2012 - 08:01 PM

Gates could be real nice!

What's the deal with Brandon Lloyd? Where's he been going in drafts?

#37 WhiteWonder

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Posted 14 June 2012 - 08:05 PM

gates i think is the pick

could also consider antonio brown but i think there are plenty of other good wr's for later.

look at my man DHB in a few rounds.!

#38 Mike MacGregor

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Posted 14 June 2012 - 11:50 PM

That movie was... intriguing... but I couldn't classify it as good nor could I recommend it.

Okay, Gates it is. Late night for me. Commentary tomorrow.

#39 420allstars

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Posted 15 June 2012 - 07:13 AM

That movie was... intriguing... but I couldn't classify it as good nor could I recommend it.

Okay, Gates it is. Late night for me. Commentary tomorrow.


I know its already done but why so sure on Gates? I know his ceiling is off the charts but I dont see the reason to jump for a TE at this point in the draft?

two things:

1: he is a risk for injury more and more each year older he gets

2: is the point of VBD not to determine how much better your pick is then the next available tier of guys? I see soo many remaing TE's who may be a slight drop off in production on a game to game basis but not enough to force my hand on gates. just my 2cents.

#40 Mike MacGregor

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Posted 15 June 2012 - 08:24 AM

Morning all.

I don't think any player really stood out as way ahead of the pack at his position at that point in the draft. Looking at the FF Today projections, we have Witten, Hernandez, Keller, Gonzo all projected higher (but similar) to Gates, along with a few guys slightly below Gates. At QB, Ryan, Eli, Rivers, Peyton are all pretty similar. At RB, Best, Helu, Greene, Redman all similar. At WR, Antonio Brown stands out the most at WR12, but just 7 points ahead of the next highest projected Santonio Holmes at WR17, and then Meachem, Decker are close.

This is completely opposite to our last two picks, where there were actually options at different positions where a player or two was head and shoulders above his peers. Gates might in fact be the most crowded on the cheatsheet as outlined above, but I prefer him here over the other guys because:

a. I don't really agree with him being projected lower than those other TE; his reception and TD potential is higher than Witten, Hernandez, etc., IMHO

b. I feel at the other positions I should be just as happy waiting for other lower ranked options to come back to me - happier than if I let Gates go and someone takes him. For example, Antonio Brown would be a nice add, but for my WR3 I feel I'd be just as happy with Decker, Torrey Smith, Reggie Wayne... even Denarius Moore.

c. personally, really like Gates as a potential true difference maker at his position

So you're right, from a pure numbers standpoint the value play was not Gates, according to the projections I'm using as a guide, but my own personal rankings/feelings about Gates pushed him as the top choice.