93 replies to this topic

[JScott]

You're assuming that you can't "hit" on a receiver in the next round.

Sure you can, and I'd expect the WRs taken in the 6th/7th to be "hits", just as I'd expect QBs taken in the 6th/7th to be hits. The real difference is what you could get in the 12th* say. You're still looking at starting QBs who are entrenched, but it's a crap shoot at WR say. So instead of Rivers in the 6th, you take ______ in the 12th and only drop 2pts in the backup range to Cam's 27.5. Then you take the hit WR who is 3pts better than the "hit" 12th round WR but 11pts better than the "miss" WR, averaging to about a 7pt gain if you go that route instead.



*I'm using the 12th as an example based on 2011 numbers because that was the latest that one of the 5 QBs who averaged 19.5 was taken.

[shovelheadt]

I'm just messing. I know it's all good.

[Fumbleweed]

Have you ever spent time in QB hell? It's an awful place to be.

[JScott]

What about trading Rivers then a few weeks into the season? Or Newton for that matter. Doesn't drafting a guy you had projected as the #48 player on the board at #74 for example give you some options potentially in a few weeks?

Only if there's a need from another owner. Supply doesn't work without demand. Let's assume we all go on with our draft strategies and where someone was going to take a QB they now just take the next guy on their list. Everyone is bumped down one due to Rivers going early. The domino effect is only a drop of one for each team in their QB rankings. Sure there's the possibility that an owner scraps his QB drafting plans due to the Rivers picks and ends up with a much lower QB than expected, but on the flip side they'd end up with a much higher position player else where by doing this. So if Rivers is then traded for the position player taken what's really gained if shovel could have taken that position player all along.

[WhiteWonder]

What about trading Rivers then a few weeks into the season? Or Newton for that matter. Doesn't drafting a guy you had projected as the #48 player on the board at #74 for example give you some options potentially in a few weeks?

you're assuming a trade can be easily made. with how deep QB is these days, you need an owner who is really desperate. You also need to have realistic expectations about what you can get for that QB rotting on your bench. I find that most owners who try this expect way too much in return for their number 2 guy. If they are willing to part with the number 1 guy (in this case lets assume Newton) then sure, but that's not often the case.

[shovelheadt]

Have you ever spent time in QB hell? It's an awful place to be.

Yep, last year when Schaub went down in my 16 team league.

[WhiteWonder]

As a side note, my first year in this league, i waited WAYYYY too long on QB. If I recall, i missed out on the first guy i wanted and said "we'll ill wait now and load up on other positions" then I was not prepared for how early backups went and it became a mess.

I ended up with Kyle Orton and..... can't honestly remember. I don't think it ended up being the reason that sunk me.

[JScott]

Have you ever spent time in QB hell? It's an awful place to be.

Sure, I think it was actually my first year in the IBL for FFT. I lost my first rounder (QB, I think) and even with the rest of my team performing I struggled and missed out on the championship tier. If I had taken an early backup QB that position would have been saved but the ripple effect of then having to take lesser position players than I could of would have had the same net effect over the season per the law of averages.

I think QB hell is just more magnified because you only start one. But in a 12 team league there are roughly 2.5 NFL starting QBs per roster, so you have 150% backup. If you start 3 WRs, assuming 64 total starting NFL WRs, you can have 5 NFL starters on your roster or 66% backup.

[Fumbleweed]

Only thing worse is being in #2 RB hell in leagues that require you to start 2 RBs. If your #2 RB sucks, it's never good. That's why for the most part, 3 RBs in the first 6 rounds still makes sense to me unless you play in a flex situation like the IBL.

[RicemanX]

I like Britt. I really really like Britt.

I just have no idea where to draft him this season.

[WhiteWonder]

even though i think he is more of a ppr threat, there is one TE i am surprised to still see available. honestly thought someone might even reach for him as the 3rd one off the board.

[WhiteWonder]

I like Britt. I really really like Britt.

I just have no idea where to draft him this season.

i think where he went was a steal. unfortunately my draft slot just didnt line up to where i felt i could take him. in hindsight maybe i could have grabbed him in tandem with Gates and rolled the dice on a QB this next turn coming up

[Fumbleweed]

even though i think he is more of a ppr threat, there is one TE i am surprised to still see available. honestly thought someone might even reach for him as the 3rd one off the board.

Back off...Carlester Crumpler is mine.

[Fumbleweed]

I like Britt. I really really like Britt.

I just have no idea where to draft him this season.

As a #3 WR...that's where you draft him. Perfect fit for that spot. Huge upside...fairly substantial risk.

[RicemanX]

Back to the drafting Rivers as a 2nd QB discussion.
I think it was perfectly fair and fine for him to draft a 2nd QB at that time.

He has 3 solid WRs, 2 RBs.
He obviously did not like any RBs on the board, or have a few he is specifically looking at in a later round.
He also probably has his eye on a particular starting TE later in the draft.
So he went with best player available. And imo, the best player available was Rivers.

[Vikings4ever]

List sent to Fumble for round 7.

[Dan]

Dan:
Nice selection in Pettigrew....I was hoping to match him up with Stafford, but wouldn't have taken him this early. I can't fault you taking him, good choice.

He was my last thought as to a TE, guess I'll go much later now without taking one as I see no value in anyone left this early.

I considered letting him slide, to see if I could get him in the next round, but that's a long way away, and there wasn't a guy that was saying, "Look at me! Can you believe I'm still here?!?" So I took the TE I want, and round out the starting lineup. And it avoids pressing to take the last guy in this tier. Pettigrew had 83 catches last year, and that isn't an anomaly. There is no reason to think that he doesn't do that again. He has the speed and talent to make that into a lot more yards, as well, so I like the value.

[remote controller]

I am known for doing what shovel did and I would've done it again here if either Rivers or Ryan were still available.

I predicted this would happen in a phone conversaton JScott and I had before Shovel picked.

[WhiteWonder]

I predicted this would happen in a phone conversaton JScott and I had before Shovel picked.

collusion

[Ray Lewis's Limo Driver]

Jacob Tamme - My first "reach" of the draft comes in at pick 7.05; I think that is likely a good thing. Tamme is likely still an 8th rounder for now, but I suspect will trend upward later and emerge as more of a late 6th, solid 7th round pick. I take him here because of what I saw at RB and WR I felt I could still find commensurate value later, and Tamme is one of those players I seek later in the draft because I think they will play better than their ADP, and up to where I take them. Manning should give him a boost.

[Dan]

Lots of Broncos taken. What a difference one player can make, no?

[remote controller]

Well I couldn't hold off of the last relavant Qb on the board................






















Just kidding........I am up and taking a look.

[Ray Lewis's Limo Driver]

Lots of Broncos taken. What a difference one player can make, no?

For a season, or two.....

[WhiteWonder]

Shocking to me that some of these tight ends are going while a certain one is still on the board

[Ray Lewis's Limo Driver]

Shocking to me that some of these tight ends are going while a certain one is still on the board

If we are thinking of the same one, there are some questions that are hurting his value....

[JScott]

If we are thinking of the same one, there are some questions that are hurting his value....

Not for me. Couldn't post AHern's name fast enough

[robb]

Donald Brown, RB Indy
Would have taken Starks here, but will settle for Brown. I think he will get the majority of the carries, but some will be vultured by____________. He is a starter, and 7th round is good value here. I needed another starter in case McFadden gets injured (he never does, so why worry!). There really was only 1 other RB I considered, but will wait and see where he goes.

[Ray Lewis's Limo Driver]

Not for me. Couldn't post AHern's name fast enough

That's the guy!

Now that he is chosen, why I passed him was because I see his production shrinking this year. I foresee him likely even being traded before the season ends. His departure from NE is likely to be a nasty one too.

[Ray Lewis's Limo Driver]

Donald Brown, RB Indy
Would have taken Starks here, but will settle for Brown. I think he will get the majority of the carries, but some will be vultured by____________. He is a starter, and 7th round is good value here. I needed another starter in case McFadden gets injured (he never does, so why worry!). There really was only 1 other RB I considered, but will wait and see where he goes.

I know this is Brown's area, but to me he just seems to have more downside than up for the time being; still, this is his area for now.

[WhiteWonder]

Not for me. Couldn't post AHern's name fast enough

Yup, that was him.

Can't imagine he has any. More ?s than tamme who has produced in exactly half a season.

Yes hernandez has a lot of weapons to contend with but he is supremely talented

[JScott]

ICE is up!

Damn it ICE, engage






:nevergetsold:

[JScott]

I foresee him likely even being traded before the season ends. His departure from NE is likely to be a nasty one too.

Who's ass are you pulling this out of

This will NEVAH happen in a million years.


BB has created matchup nightmares for opponents with Gronk and AHern. I suspect with a year of film and an offseason some D's will find ways to slow the TE Twins down but no way in hell does BB trade away an advantage he's created over the rest of the league.


The addition of Lloyd will take targets away from Welker, Gronk and AHern but I suspect mostly from Gronk. I think AHern slips some from last years numbers but not much and that still puts him up as a top 5 TE.

[remote controller]

Torn between selecting a WR or a RB in this round. I ultimately went with Starks to help beef up my RB corp as my #3. Grant is gone, and the main projected backup is Alex Green who is rehabbing from an ACL tear. Saine and Kuhn are great role players and they will factor in with the Packers tendency to run gadget packages in the redzone. I feel the release of Grant, and then not addressing a runningback in the draft, tells me that James will get his oppurtunity to prove what he did in the playoff run of 2010 was not a fluke. Had I went with a #3 wr it was gonna be Denarious Moore. I like his skillset and have heard him being compared to Jennings by a former Coach now with Oakland.

[Matt's Eagles]

I am here for my 8th round pick...just give me a minute or 2 to look over team...and find team needs

[Vikings4ever]

I'm here, give me a couple minutes.

[Ray Lewis's Limo Driver]

Who's ass are you pulling this out of

This will NEVAH happen in a million years.


BB has created matchup nightmares for opponents with Gronk and AHern. I suspect with a year of film and an offseason some D's will find ways to slow the TE Twins down but no way in hell does BB trade away an advantage he's created over the rest of the league.


The addition of Lloyd will take targets away from Welker, Gronk and AHern but I suspect mostly from Gronk. I think AHern slips some from last years numbers but not much and that still puts him up as a top 5 TE.

Simple economics, and the trend of the Pats organization.

Gronkowski is the real beast and future for them at TE, Hernandez is set to be a free agent in 2014, when he will want to cash out. So what will the Pat's do? Well, for starters they will put together some experience and youth at the position now to see what they will be keeping around instead of Hernandez; that is already done with what they already have, and now the addition of Ballard. See now they got Ballard cheap due to the ACL, but they don't care, they won't likely need him until 2013 anyway. So what happens next? We start hearing rumors about possible trades, with NE gobbling up picks like they love to do as well. They have two years to do it since Hernandez's contract is CHEAP for 2012 and 2013. And if no takers this season? Not a problem, they ship him out in 2013, when he probably holds out for a new contract, and Ballard is healthy again.....

[JScott]

Simple economics, and the trend of the Pats organization.

Gronkowski is the real beast and future for them at TE, Hernandez is set to be a free agent in 2014, when he will want to cash out. So what will the Pat's do? Well, for starters they will put together some experience and youth at the position now to see what they will be keeping around instead of Hernandez; that is already done with what they already have, and now the addition of Ballard. See now they got Ballard cheap due to the ACL, but they don't care, they won't likely need him until 2013 anyway. So what happens next? We start hearing rumors about possible trades, with NE gobbling up picks like they love to do as well. They have two years to do it since Hernandez's contract is CHEAP for 2012 and 2013. And if no takers this season? Not a problem, they ship him out in 2013, when he probably holds out for a new contract, and Ballard is healthy again.....

Welker will go before Hernandez. Gronk's extention is done. If Welker plays out this season under his tender and doesn't sign a long term deal then there's the $ to sign AHern. Ballard, surely you jest. Fells was brought in to block, and can catch some. Same with Ballard. Scaife is an off-season body and I'd be surprised if he stays on the 53-man roster. None of these guys have been brought in the replace AHern. None are even in the ballpark skillset wise.

They paid Gronk now paving the way to pay AHern next year, so they wouldn't have both contracts come due at the same time.

[RicemanX]

Heading to a Giants game today
Will personal message JScott with my picks.

[Ray Lewis's Limo Driver]

Welker will go before Hernandez. Gronk's extention is done. If Welker plays out this season under his tender and doesn't sign a long term deal then there's the $ to sign AHern. Ballard, surely you jest. Fells was brought in to block, and can catch some. Same with Ballard. Scaife is an off-season body and I'd be surprised if he stays on the 53-man roster. None of these guys have been brought in the replace AHern. None are even in the ballpark skillset wise.

They paid Gronk now paving the way to pay AHern next year, so they wouldn't have both contracts come due at the same time.

I think Welker stays put for now, yes he has not signed the franchise tender yet, but he is saying good things publicly, which is smart because outside of the Pat's system he is pedestrian, he knows he has to stay in NE and with Tom Brady or he retires much earlier than would otherwise need to.

It's not just the TE's at play here, NE is very smart about this and has demonstrated the willingness to do this in the past. They know that affording a new contract for Hernandez in 2014 jeopardizes their ability to keep Wilfork, Gostkowski, Vereen, Ridley, Mallet and Fanene..... Ballicheat loves depth, and will not forsake it to keep a luxury. He does not need to repalce Hernandez, just fill in behind Gostkowski.

Ballard was not drafted, he becomes a restricted free agent in 2014, so they can keep him dirt cheap until 2015 too. In 2013 and 2014 the Pat's will start looking hard for Brady's successor as well, the cost of getting a franchise QB must be considered. The picks they can garner from a Hernandez trade might allow them to move into a spot to access elite QB talent.

With Lloyd on site, he can provide in the role of stretching the defense that Hernandez was giving......the writing is on the wall, but you have to be willing to read it

[JScott]

Best in the 8th was too good to pass up. Perfect risk/reward candidate. His risk (concussions) is scaring people off but he's been cleared and by most reports is lighting it up in camp. I was having a discussion with Remote about RBs/injuries and how certain types of offenses can actually help an RB avoid injuries. Those with wide open attacks, like PHI and DET spread out defenses giving room for RBs to take hits at angles rather than having to lower their head in a box and just take the punishment. Sure Best was in this style of offense last year and was concussed but I think the wide open offense will help to minimize the risk of it happening again. Best will learn to avoid head on contact from this.