38 replies to this topic

[stonewall]

I am surprised, perhaps pleasantly so from a FF perspective, that most everyone is writing Matt Flynn off this season for fantasy purposes. I believe a closer look is warranted. Let me say right off the top that he most certainly could bust. This is FF, after all. He, like many others, is a prospect...at best. There is "officially" a QB competition in Seattle. However, I contend that he will not only start, but likely be a huge surprise in fantasy circles this year, and you can get him practically for free.

Yes, his body of work is small but, boy, what an impressive sample......and if memory serves me right, GB has been known to churn out some decent QB's. He had a good game against NE in 2010 (24 for 37/251/3/1), and we all know what he did in a shoot-out against Detroit late last season (31 for 34/480/6/1). <-----Look at those #'s again fellers. That was a GB record for single game passing yards and TD's, if I'm not mistaken.

Most prognosticators and detractors point to the heavy firepower he had as his disposal, but let's remember that Jennings didn't even play that day. Is Rodgers only great because of his supporting cast? Some think so, but I assert that is unrealistic. Is Flynn a Rodgers? No.......but he did something that Rodgers (and Favre) had never accomplished. That has to be worth something.

The other problem that is pointed out is the lack of weapons in Seattle. This is true. However, there is plenty there to work with (Rice, Baldwin, Obomanu, Tate, Fat Mike, Miller, and Winslow), to go along with a very legit RB in Lynch.

I am not recommending him as your QB1, but his presence in the last couple of rounds of redrafts makes it easy for me to take a top tier QB in the first 2 rounds, load up on RB/WR's, then fall back on Flynn at the end as basically a free bye-week fill-in, as well as a prospect with QB1 potential for trade bait or injury insurance. Under the umbrella of the afore-mentioned parameters......I'm buying.

Are you?

[titans&bucs&bearsohmy!]

He's currently locked in a QB competition to win the job over a rooike midget...

I'm selling.

If I was gonna take a flyer on an out of the woodwork QB, I'd be more inclined to try Jake Locker or RG3.

[lexdizzle]

im going to wait until he is at least locked in as the starter. I dont see how doesnt end up the starter but we only have a small sample size of production on an elite passing team. ive read 4 reports within the past month and have been keeping an eye on him.

In handicapping Seattle's quarterback competition, the Tacoma News Tribune has Matt Flynn as the frontrunner.
The Tribune points to Tarvaris Jackson's big arm and athleticism as advantages, but Flynn has shown much better timing and accuracy. Rookie Russell Wilson has been impressive, but is a "wild card" until he sees live action. This battle figures to go well into the preseason

After doing film study of his two career starts, ESPN's Ron Jaworski believes the Seahawks will have to "manipulate" Matt Flynn in order for him to be a successful NFL starter.
"What I saw was a timing and rhythm passer who's decisive with his reads and throws," Jaws observed. "He was consistently accurate in the short to intermediate areas. He displayed a nice feel in the pocket. ... But the more throws I watched, the more his arm strength limitations were evident. I was concerned that his few deep balls lost energy at the back end. They had a tendency to die." The Seahawks do have pieces in place to execute the "manipulation," with workhorse back Marshawn Lynch in Tom Cable's zone-blocking scheme.

In a Saturday afternoon interview, Seahawks WR Doug Baldwin said it's hard to tell the distance between Matt Flynn and Tarvaris Jackson.
Reports on the quarterback competition in Seattle have been pretty volatile. Baldwin confirms that the situation is not clear-cut in favor of Flynn. It's a bad sign that Flynn hasn't emerged over the underwhelming Jackson, but he still figures to win the job after landing a three-year, $26 million contract.

According to Pro Football Weekly, Matt Flynn was "by far" the best quarterback at the Seahawks' first OTA practice open to the media.
Flynn stood out for his ability to "withstand pressure and avoid turnovers," and he remains on track to separate himself in training camp. The Seahawks have more OTAs beginning on Wednesday and lasting through Friday. It will be interesting to see whether Russell Wilson or Tarvaris Jackson's reps dwindle

who to believe

[IGotWorms]

Seattle's offense is generally pretty poor. A lot of that has to do with the QB play, sure, but I don't see any non-elite QB stepping in there and lighting it up.

[jgcrawfish]

I'm probably in the minority here, but I'm not as low on Tavaris Jackson as most people. He's got a very strong arm, great athleticism and already has a grasp of the offense. He wasn't working with much last year and an offensive line that is improving but wasn't exactly dominant, particularly early on. Plus, he already has a good rapport with the most talented WR on the team in Rice. I'm probably holding on Flynn until if he flat out wins the job, and even then I may wait to see it for myself in preseason.

[PackYourNut]

His former coach didn't want him to be his QB in Miami... That says a lot to me right there!

[Frozenbeernuts]

Seattle's offense is generally pretty poor. A lot of that has to do with the QB play, sure, but I don't see any non-elite QB stepping in there and lighting it up.

They will be one of the better units this year.

[titans&bucs&bearsohmy!]

They will be one of the better units this year.

No, they won't.

[The Moz]

I seem to remember him throwing quite a few deep balls in week 17 last year and they looked pretty much on point. Granted thats just one game. If he has Sidney Rice healthy I think he can have a solid season of maybe 3500 yds and 20-22 TD's a solid #2 QB

Jackson is nothing but a big arm that he basically has to roll out of the pocket to use -- I see no threat here.

The Rook -- is coach speak his only chance will be holding a clip board unless there are injuries. If Fylnn is around rounds 15-16 he's a definite buy.

[tanatastic]

Kolb 2.0

/thread

[IGotWorms]

They will be one of the better units this year.

You're a glass half-full kind of guy, aren't you? I like that


(but I think you're wrong in this particular instance)

[Kopy]

For fantasy purposes, He could be a backup, bye week filler for you. I doubt he'd be a starter unless your in a 2 QB league, or it's really big. ie.14 teams or more.

As for the NFL. I think all 3 qb's will remain with Flynn starting and Carroll and schnieder trying to sneak Portis on the practice squad.

For 2012: Flynn starts and they keep Jackson as a backup. He's in the last year of his deal, they're not hurting for cap dollars, and Carroll thinks he can compete and win this year (a year ahead of his timeline.)Which means he wants a capable backup, which is something I've always thought Jackson was. Then of course Wilson will be the 3rd QB.

Next year however. Jackson will be gone. And I expect Wilson to get the gig, unless Flynn absolutely tears it up.
Then it will be the Carroll,Schnieder, Wilson show as long as it works out. All their jobs, will then depend on eachother.

[Joey Gladstone]

Russell Wilson

I think Flynn will be at least passable, and has the strongest chance of winning the job this year due to being a veteran. He's regarded as a pretty smart guy too.

Long-term, I think Wilson is the guy and he has a solid chance of stealing the job this summer. As long as Wilson and Flynn don't fall flat on their faces or get injured, I doubt Jackson makes the final roster.

As far as the rest of the offense goes, Sidney Rice's health, Golden Tate's maturity, and the growth of a still pretty young o-line will determine how well the offense does. If any of these things pan out the offense should be able to finish middle of the pack with one of the new quarterbacks.

[Ditka vs. ______]

For a guy who you can probably pick up in the last couple rounds of the draft, where everyone is a crap shoot, I'd say he's worth the gamble. He's proven he can play in the NFL, he's proven he can win by leading LSU to a BCS title, and how many other QB's can you draft after the 13th round that have thrown 6 TD's in a game?

[tanatastic]

He is absolutely draft worthy last few ends and a lottery ticket.

[Frozenbeernuts]

No, they won't.

Yes, they will.

[49ER MAN]

Yes, they will.

Is this just a feeling you have as to why they will be successful?

[Frozenbeernuts]

Is this just a feeling you have as to why they will be successful?

Well they finished well in most catagories last year and added some defensive players like bruce irvine in the offseason. I do think irvine is a little overrated though.

2011
Total defense: 9th
Passing D: 11th
Rushing D: 15th
Pts per game: 7th

I was trying to look up their fantasy points from last year but my phone isnt cooperating. They do have some tough games this year but when playing weaker offenses last year they put up some big points. I am not saying they will be elite, just one of the better units.

[Mike MacGregor]

On one hand, I keep thinking this can't be another Charlie Whitehurst story. Surely the Seahawks couldn't be that stupid to give a decent size contract to a backup QB who will compete to be their starter but isn't handed the job or guaranteed anything and ultimately we find out he sucks. Nice work if you can get it though.

On the other hand, the Seahawks offense appears to be so limited here I just don't see the upside of using a roster spot on Flynn in a typical league. Right now he's got to be ranked outside the top 24 QB, and even if we rubber stamp him in as the Day 1 starter, he looks like a very average option which still might not put him above QB24 in terms of projections/upside/risk. Unless I draft 3 QB - which I guess I did in that last mock: Peyton, Palmer, Ponder - hard to imagine I look very strongly at Flynn.

Still, stonewall, I like how you look at players who people are not paying a lot of attention to and ask the question, "why not?" I've been hearing a lot about Russell Wilson, but when it comes down to it are they going to hand the reigns to a rookie? Seems doubtful. And jgcrawfish, you are definitely in the minority on TJax. He's past the point where any team or fanbase is going to give him a chance to succeed.

[Phurfur]

He's currently locked in a QB competition to win the job over a rooike midget...I'm selling.

If I was gonna take a flyer on an out of the woodwork QB, I'd be more inclined to try Jake Locker or RG3.

They said the same thing about Doug Flutie.

[PaperTiger]

I like Flynn as nothing more than a Qb2/bye week fill in. I think he will have a few huge games, but mostly mediocre at best.

[Cara]

I won't be drafting Flynn. His "great" game came indoors (Seattle plays outdoors and it rains frequently) on turf with a top 4 offensive line and 4 excellent WR's. What does he get in Seattle? A decent offensive line, but not spectacular. Zero WR's I would trust. Rice could be good if he's healthy, but that is a big if. Flynn doesn't have the strongest of arms he wasn't courted by many teams in need of a QB. I agree with the Kolb 2.0 comment someone made.

If you compare the Green Bay line, man for man, vs. Seattle, there isn't much of a comparison. Green Bay has two excellent backups on their line. Seattle is above average at three of the spots, but does not have the depth. Teams playing against Seattle do not have to single cover their WR's. In Green Bay, if you watch the games, every receiver is in man or zone coverage. There are too many WR's to cover man/man. In Seattle, even Big Mike Williams is double teamed, simply because they can.

I am not drafting Flynn, even as a backup, in any league. I am not convinced he will be the starter, or a difference maker.

[Ditka vs. ______]

I won't be drafting Flynn. His "great" game came indoors

I'm not trying to start an argument here, but did you even watch that game?

His great game was played at Lambeau Field, in Green Bay, WI, in January, outdoors, on frozen ground (not turf), with a temp of 19 degrees with the wind chill, going toe to toe with one of the top 5 QB's in the league. So I think he can handle the Pacific Northwest. I'm not sure how anyone could mock a performance of 480 yards, 70% completion percentage, 6 TD's, and only 1 Int., in only his 2nd career NFL start, against a play-off team. And if you're concerned about the level of talent drop off in Seattle, consider the fact that this was a week 17 game, with nothing on the line for Green Bay, and 2 starting Linemen, and Greg Jennings did not play.

I live in Green Bay. I've seen the kid play and practice. I watched both of his NFL starts from beginning to end. I'm a fan. Is he going to be a super star? Probably not. But don't under-estimate this kid because of a fantasy football forum. He is a winner. He was at LSU, and he was in Green Bay. He will be an incredible upgrade to T-Jax, just on leadership and game management alone.

[MDC]

I have to admit that I haven't watched Flynn play so my take on him is based only on what I've read and watching other QBs in somewhat similar situations change teams over the years.

I'm guessing his ceiling is somewhere around 3,400 passing yards and 24 touchdowns - which would make him a low end #1 in most formats. More likely I think he's going to be a backup / bye week fill in and very inconsistent. I am less worried about Flynn's talent and more concerned about the real lack of talent around him on offense. Seattle has some nice pieces on the OL but I'm not sold on Lynch, especially now that he got paid, and the receiving corps is really weak.

I think the biggest beneficiary might be Zack Miller. Now that he has a competent QB, Miller seriously might go from 250 or so receiving yards last year to >800 and around 6 TDs. His ADP is in the 120-range which makes him a 10th rounder in a lot of formats. If you decide to wait on a TE you could do a lot more than drafting Miller along with another low investment player @ the position.

[stonewall]

I think the biggest beneficiary might be Zack Miller. Now that he has a competent QB, Miller seriously might go from 250 or so receiving yards last year to >800 and around 6 TDs.

Winslow will bleed him dry.

[stonewall]

I'm not trying to start an argument here, but did you even watch that game?

His great game was played at Lambeau Field, in Green Bay, WI, in January, outdoors, on frozen ground (not turf), with a temp of 19 degrees with the wind chill, going toe to toe with one of the top 5 QB's in the league. So I think he can handle the Pacific Northwest. I'm not sure how anyone could mock a performance of 480 yards, 70% completion percentage, 6 TD's, and only 1 Int., in only his 2nd career NFL start, against a play-off team. And if you're concerned about the level of talent drop off in Seattle, consider the fact that this was a week 17 game, with nothing on the line for Green Bay, and 2 starting Linemen, and Greg Jennings did not play.

I live in Green Bay. I've seen the kid play and practice. I watched both of his NFL starts from beginning to end. I'm a fan. Is he going to be a super star? Probably not. But don't under-estimate this kid because of a fantasy football forum. He is a winner. He was at LSU, and he was in Green Bay. He will be an incredible upgrade to T-Jax, just on leadership and game management alone.

I appreciate dissenting viewpoints like Cara offered and was going to respond, but you did a far better job. Quality post with appropriate rebuttals based on first hand observations.

[redtodd]

This guy is coming out of an offense where even Favrah's texted donger can throw for 300+ yards and 3 TD's a game. He is a product of the system.

[Phurfur]

He was at LSU,

Where he won a National Championship going 19/27, 174 yds, 4 TD.

[Kent]

I think Flynn starts and plays well. Tavaris has zero accuracy and they'll sit the rookie. All the press is smoke and mirrors. Flynn will be the guy.

[Kent]

I won't be drafting Flynn. His "great" game came indoors (Seattle plays outdoors and it rains frequently) on turf with a top 4 offensive line and 4 excellent WR's. What does he get in Seattle? A decent offensive line, but not spectacular. Zero WR's I would trust. Rice could be good if he's healthy, but that is a big if. Flynn doesn't have the strongest of arms he wasn't courted by many teams in need of a QB. I agree with the Kolb 2.0 comment someone made.

If you compare the Green Bay line, man for man, vs. Seattle, there isn't much of a comparison. Green Bay has two excellent backups on their line. Seattle is above average at three of the spots, but does not have the depth. Teams playing against Seattle do not have to single cover their WR's. In Green Bay, if you watch the games, every receiver is in man or zone coverage. There are too many WR's to cover man/man. In Seattle, even Big Mike Williams is double teamed, simply because they can.

I am not drafting Flynn, even as a backup, in any league. I am not convinced he will be the starter, or a difference maker.

Baldwin, Rice, Williams, Winslow and Lynch all are pretty decent pass catching options. If Golden Tate proves it this year they could be a sleeper offense.

[titans&bucs&bearsohmy!]

I think Flynn starts and plays well. Tavaris has zero accuracy and they'll sit the rookie. All the press is smoke and mirrors. Flynn will be the guy.

Yes, I agree. But why would I draft a complete unknown who may not even start the whole season when I could get a Hasselbeck, Freeman, Dalton, etc. to be my QB2?

[MDC]

Yes, I agree. But why would I draft a complete unknown who may not even start the whole season when I could get a Hasselbeck, Freeman, Dalton, etc. to be my QB2?

Hasselpoop won't start the whole season either. But I agree on Flynn and would rather have Dalton or Freeman.

[BufordT]

Yes, I agree. But why would I draft a complete unknown who may not even start the whole season when I could get a Hasselbeck, Freeman, Dalton, etc. to be my QB2?

That's the best thing about him, he's unknown. If Flynn turns out to be a dud, you can still get Hasselbeck and Freeman off the waiver wire after week 4 (only half joking there). I'd gladly take Flynn as a QB2 and hope he's a "diamond in the rough" type.

Hard to ignore 6 TD's in an NFL game...even though the game meant nothing to GB. Remember a couple years ago when Gronk caught 3 TD's in a preseason game and everyone said "so what" it's pre-season?

[titans&bucs&bearsohmy!]

That's the best thing about him, he's unknown. If Flynn turns out to be a dud, you can still get Hasselbeck and Freeman off the waiver wire after week 4 (only half joking there). I'd gladly take Flynn as a QB2 and hope he's a "diamond in the rough" type.

Hard to ignore 6 TD's in an NFL game...even though the game meant nothing to GB. Remember a couple years ago when Gronk caught 3 TD's in a preseason game and everyone said "so what" it's pre-season?

How often does a QB just come out of nowhere and explode?

[BufordT]

Not often, but it happens...off the top of my head

Cam Newton...Kurt Warner...Daunte Culpepper...Aaron Brooks...Tim Tebow...

Alright..Tebow is a stretch but I needed one more name, I'm sure there's more out there but I'm not into research right now.

Remember, we're talking about taking a flyer on a QB2. At this point in time, I'd rather have Flynn not knowing what you're going to get than Hasselbeck knowing exactly what you're going to get. Or taking Freeman and getting virtually nothing.

[stonewall]

I am surprised, perhaps pleasantly so from a FF perspective, that most everyone is writing Matt Flynn off this season for fantasy purposes. I believe a closer look is warranted. Let me say right off the top that he most certainly could bust. This is FF, after all. He, like many others, is a prospect...at best. There is "officially" a QB competition in Seattle. However, I contend that he will not only start, but likely be a huge surprise in fantasy circles this year, and you can get him practically for free.

I am not recommending him as your QB1, but his presence in the last couple of rounds of redrafts makes it easy for me to take a top tier QB in the first 2 rounds, load up on RB/WR's, then fall back on Flynn at the end as basically a free bye-week fill-in, as well as a prospect with QB1 potential for trade bait or injury insurance.

Update: 8-20-2012:

I still expect Flynn to start and be a great late-round prospect (if T.O. can catch actually the friggin' ball periodically). However, I must admit my surprise that the rookie Wilson looks so incredibly good. He is poised, accurate, and has immense escapability (albeit, admittedly, against second/third team defenses thus far). I am beginning to be concerned that he sees the field at some point...particularly if Flynn struggles.

So....I am still recommending Flynn as a late-round sleeper QB2 with tremendous upside, at a bargain-basement price. However, be prepared to pull the trigger on Wilson if the situation changes.

[stonewall]

Update: 8-20-2012:



So....I am still recommending Flynn as a late-round sleeper QB2 with tremendous upside, at a bargain-basement price. However, be prepared to pull the trigger on Wilson if the situation changes.

Update: 8-24-2012

Might want to have that finger on the trigger. Wilson is looking unexpectedly strong.....unsure if Flynn can hold him off.

[Reality]

Your backup FF QB doesn't actually have to be a backup....

[dats007]

I'm probably in the minority here, but I'm not as low on Tavaris Jackson as most people.

I'm with you, but he's done here in Seattle.

His former coach didn't want him to be his QB in Miami... That says a lot to me right there!

Preach!

Well they finished well in most catagories last year and added some defensive players like bruce irvine in the offseason. I do think irvine is a little overrated though.

2011
Total defense: 9th
Passing D: 11th
Rushing D: 15th
Pts per game: 7th

I was trying to look up their fantasy points from last year but my phone isnt cooperating. They do have some tough games this year but when playing weaker offenses last year they put up some big points. I am not saying they will be elite, just one of the better units.

The 'hawks defense was finished fourth in one of my leagues last year. Fifth in another.

I'm not trying to start an argument here, but did you even watch that game?

THANK YOU!

Update: 8-24-2012

Might want to have that finger on the trigger. Wilson is looking unexpectedly strong.....unsure if Flynn can hold him off.

Russellmania!