21 replies to this topic

[Fumbleweed]

It's time for another summer of Look-Alike Player threads...if you're new to the Board, every few days during the summer, I will try to post a thread that lists two players who are very close in value in redraft situations. Simply vote for the player you feel should be drafted first and then add comments about your selection if you would like.

This is non-PPR for Look-Alike matchups that involve RBs, WRs, or TEs. Just standard point for every 10 yards and 6 for TDs.

Our Seventh Look-Alike player matchup of the summer is: Matt Ryan vs. Peyton Manning

Previous matchup results

Miles Austin over Dez Bryant, 19-16.
Steven Jackson over Frank Gore, 20-7.
Matthew Stafford over Cam Newton, 31-9.
Victor Cruz over Jordy Nelson, 16-7.
Jamaal Charles over DeMarco Murray, 15-14.
Jeremy Maclin leads DeSean Jackson, 29-4.

Thanks for your participation!!

[Boilermaker04]

How are these two look-alike?

Peyton by a mile....high.

[Fantasy Noob]

I voted for Ryan simply for the fact that I don't think Peyton plays more than 12 games this season. It is a bit distasteful to predict injuries but he missed all of last season. I don't trust the media one bit to report on whether or not he can make the same throws he used to with the same amount of power, he is the new Favre and is going to get a pass for almost anything by the media.

[MDC]

Matt Ryan.

I'll take the guy who isn't 36 years old, coming off multiple neck surgeries, and playing outdoors in Denver on a team with mediocre talent at receiver. Ryan also plays in a dome, in a division with three mediocre / very bad defenses, on an offense that's flush with elite receiver talent.

I think Ryan is going to be a pleasant surprise in the 6-7 round range. On the other hand, I think Peyton goes in the 3-4 range in a lot of drafts just based on his name pedigree and puts up very average (3,600 yards, 24 TDs?) fantasy numbers.

This one isn't close at all for me.

[Portis26]

Fantasy

Ryan - same offense -better WRs

Real-Life

Manning cause playoffs he is 1000 % better

.

[thesitedoc]

Ryan - 2 stud WR's, new OC who will throw more, aging RB in Turner so again they will throw more, plays in a dome

[vroompac]

Ryan will finish the number 6 scoring QB this season .. ya I'll boldly project it.

Plus I still love the guy from last year cause he went on a tear towards the end and help me win a few thousand bucks

[Matt Mueller]

Not sure how these are look alikes.

Ryan/Romo/Rivers makes a whole lot more sense to me or even Eli Manning.


That said, I agree with the others. Ryan.

[kmbryant09]

I voted for Ryan simply for the fact that I don't think Peyton plays more than 12 games this season. It is a bit distasteful to predict injuries but he missed all of last season. I don't trust the media one bit to report on whether or not he can make the same throws he used to with the same amount of power, he is the new Favre and is going to get a pass for almost anything by the media.

The Doctors have said he's as healthy as he was before the injury

[Vikings4ever]

Not sure how these are look alikes.

Ryan/Romo/Rivers makes a whole lot more sense to me or even Eli Manning.


That said, I agree with the others. Ryan.

Ryan's ADP is actually a round later than Peyton's.

[titans&bucs&bearsohmy!]

Matt Ryan.

I'll take the guy who isn't 36 years old, coming off multiple neck surgeries, and playing outdoors in Denver on a team with mediocre talent at receiver. Ryan also plays in a dome, in a division with three mediocre / very bad defenses, on an offense that's flush with elite receiver talent.

I think Ryan is going to be a pleasant surprise in the 6-7 round range. On the other hand, I think Peyton goes in the 3-4 range in a lot of drafts just based on his name pedigree and puts up very average (3,600 yards, 24 TDs?) fantasy numbers.

This one isn't close at all for me.

I thought that last year, and was largely disappointed. Everything points to him being an elite fantasy QB, but it never seems to happen.

[MDC]

I thought that last year, and was largely disappointed. Everything points to him being an elite fantasy QB, but it never seems to happen.

I think Ryan could be a 6-10 range QB - not elite but a guy who you'd be comfortable starting in a league of 12-14 teams. IMO Peyton's ceiling in about the same but he's much more expensive and comes with more risk. I wouldn't draft him until the 5-6 round range and he'll be long gone by then.

[LoOnAtIk]

I thought that last year, and was largely disappointed. Everything points to him being an elite fantasy QB, but it never seems to happen.

This. I feel like every year we hype Matty Ice to elite levels but every year he finishes with solid numbers thus teasing us for next year. I think he's just a solid QB who benefits with all the weapons he has around him. He's still not elite.

[kmbryant09]

I think Ryan could be a 6-10 range QB - not elite but a guy who you'd be comfortable starting in a league of 12-14 teams. IMO Peyton's ceiling in about the same but he's much more expensive and comes with more risk. I wouldn't draft him until the 5-6 round range and he'll be long gone by then.

Im curious why Manning's ceiling - his absolute best case scenario, is in the 6-10 range.

If healthy, why can't Manning return as a top3 fantasy QB - where he's legitimately spent MOST of the past 13 seasons?

[Stewburtx8]

Im curious why Manning's ceiling - his absolute best case scenario, is in the 6-10 range.

If healthy, why can't Manning return as a top3 fantasy QB - where he's legitimately spent MOST of the past 13 seasons?

I guess it depends if you think the ridiculous passing numbers from last season will continue. Guys like Brees, Rodgers, Brady, and Stafford were throwing for 40 TD's or more last season (39 for Brady). Do you think Peyton Manning, after not playing last season, and now joining a new team, is going to come out and throw 40 TD's? Or do you think Manning throws for his usual 30-32 TD's and the rest of the pack doesn't put up such ridiculous numbers? I don't think I'd answer "Yes" to either of these questions, so I'd put Manning's ceiling outside the top 3 QB's. Just my opinion...

[The Moz]

A 100% Manning after about 3 games of shaking rust off would be the #1-4 QB in FF even on Denver -- the "talent" he had in Indy - please ... yes he had a nice pass blocking oline -- But Harrison and Wayne were not all world talents Manning made them look like they were. Marvin had great hands and ran recise routes -- Wayne basically a carbon copy of Marvin but a little tougher and bigger and maybe faster. I still remember after every catch Marvin would go down like a scared little kid rather than get hit - I rememeber mant times him running out at the 2 or 3 rather than take the bump to get into the endzone - As a Marvin owner many years that frustrated the hell out of me.

back to point I agree after a year off and 3 surgeries and over a year of re hab -- to even put him with Ryan I couldn't do -- but he has a much higher ceiling IMO than even Ryan

[MDC]

Im curious why Manning's ceiling - his absolute best case scenario, is in the 6-10 range.

If healthy, why can't Manning return as a top3 fantasy QB - where he's legitimately spent MOST of the past 13 seasons?

Here's why:

Too many other good passers. Rodgers, Brady and Brees are all clearly better quarterbacks right now. Stafford and Cam should also be part of that conversation.

Aside from all that, Manning is coming off multiple neck surgeries, he hasn't played in over a year and didn't have a good 2010 (by his standards), throwing something like 15 INTs in the second half of the season. I was wondering back then whether he was on the downslope back then. A year away from football doesn't make me any more confident. He's 36 now and that's the age when a lot of elite quarterbacks have started to decline. Manning is going from the offense and system he played in for more than a decade to a new team that doesn't have elite receiver talent and doesn't appear to be a very strong fit for his skill set. He's also going from a dome to an outdoor stadium in a cold weather climate.

I like Manning a lot and hope he succeeds. Fantasy wise I really don't see him throwing for more than 25 or so TDs. Given all the quality passers out there, those are pretty ordinary fantasy starter type numbers. I also think someone's going to draft Manning in the 3-4 round range in a lot of drafts just based on his name and history. I'll be taking a second receiver or third RB at that point so no thanks.

[kmbryant09]

I guess it depends if you think the ridiculous passing numbers from last season will continue. Guys like Brees, Rodgers, Brady, and Stafford were throwing for 40 TD's or more last season (39 for Brady). Do you think Peyton Manning, after not playing last season, and now joining a new team, is going to come out and throw 40 TD's? Or do you think Manning throws for his usual 30-32 TD's and the rest of the pack doesn't put up such ridiculous numbers? I don't think I'd answer "Yes" to either of these questions, so I'd put Manning's ceiling outside the top 3 QB's. Just my opinion...

I think it's somewhere in between. I'm not sure the inflated passing #'s are merely a product of increased QB play - certainly rules, the lockout, player evolution, schemes, etc. played a part in it. I don't think we'll see quite the ridiculous #'s we saw last year, but I still expect the top QB's to pas for 4,500+ yards and 33-40 TD's. Considering that Manning threw for 4,200+ yards and 28+ TD's on a regular basis for 13 seasons in an environment that didn't support these modern inflated numbers, I wouldn't be surprised if a healthy Manning threw for 4,700 and 35+.

Here's why:

Aside from all that, Manning is coming off multiple neck surgeries, he hasn't played in over a year and didn't have a good 2010 (by his standards), throwing something like 15 INTs in the second half of the season. I was wondering back then whether he was on the downslope back then. A year away from football doesn't make me any more confident. He's 36 now and that's the age when a lot of elite quarterbacks have started to decline. Manning is going from the offense and system he played in for more than a decade to a new team that doesn't have elite receiver talent and doesn't appear to be a very strong fit for his skill set. He's also going from a dome to an outdoor stadium in a cold weather climate.

I've got to strongly, strongly disagree with this part of your post.

Using 2010 as an example for why Manning can't be a top3 QB is 100% proving yourself wrong. I believe he was the 2nd best fantasy QB in the league that season (his last full season).

Also, 2010 as a whole was not a down year for Manning. He threw for 4,700 yards and 33 TD's!

What you are referring to, however, is a 3-game stretch that saw Manning throw 11 INT's. But he also averaged 348 yards and 2.67 TD's in those 3 games. But yes, those INT's were very costly in real-life. In the other 14 games he played in 2010: 3,879 yards, 26 TD's, 6 INT's - including 4 must-win games to finish off the season in which Manning threw for 991 yards, 9 TD's and 2 INT's. To suggest that 2010 was an indication that Manning's skills are deteriorating is a bit of a stretch. Not to mention he had to deal with minor injuries to Reggie Wayne, Joseph Addai, Pierre Garcon and MAJOR injuries to Austin Collie & Dallas Clark - all things considered I think Manning was pretty damn good in 2010.

[MDC]

I've got to strongly, strongly disagree with this part of your post.

Using 2010 as an example for why Manning can't be a top3 QB is 100% proving yourself wrong. I believe he was the 2nd best fantasy QB in the league that season (his last full season).

Also, 2010 as a whole was not a down year for Manning. He threw for 4,700 yards and 33 TD's!

What you are referring to, however, is a 3-game stretch that saw Manning throw 11 INT's. But he also averaged 348 yards and 2.67 TD's in those 3 games. But yes, those INT's were very costly in real-life. In the other 14 games he played in 2010: 3,879 yards, 26 TD's, 6 INT's - including 4 must-win games to finish off the season in which Manning threw for 991 yards, 9 TD's and 2 INT's. To suggest that 2010 was an indication that Manning's skills are deteriorating is a bit of a stretch. Not to mention he had to deal with minor injuries to Reggie Wayne, Joseph Addai, Pierre Garcon and MAJOR injuries to Austin Collie & Dallas Clark - all things considered I think Manning was pretty damn good in 2010.

I wasn't the only one questioning whether Manning was on the downslope back in 2010. Just about everyone watching the Colts was asking the same question. And that was before multiple neck surgeries, an entire missed season, and his 36th birthday. I have a feeling John Fox is not going to be airing it out 40+ times per game, especially if Manning goes through a similar stretch this year.

Personally, I'm not drafting a player of Manning's age and recent injury history moving from a dome team with a suck defense to a ball-control offense in a cold weather climate. At least not in the 4-5 round range, when there are so many good passers out there, many of them available for much cheaper.

[Matt Mueller]

I wasn't the only one questioning whether Manning was on the downslope back in 2010. Just about everyone watching the Colts was asking the same question. And that was before multiple neck surgeries, an entire missed season, and his 36th birthday. I have a feeling John Fox is not going to be airing it out 40+ times per game, especially if Manning goes through a similar stretch this year.

Personally, I'm not drafting a player of Manning's age and recent injury history moving from a dome team with a suck defense to a ball-control offense in a cold weather climate. At least not in the 4-5 round range, when there are so many good passers out there, many of them available for much cheaper.

Total agreement. Manning is probably a DND for me as I'll have him ranked after Ryan/Romo/Rivers/Eli. I don't necessarily see how there is upside vs those other options and I do see the huge downside.

[Matt Mueller]

Take this FWIW, but I just noticed a best case/worst case scenario for each QB this year on Rotoworld.

Manning probably has the worst, worst case.

'9. Peyton Manning
Best Case: The best neck surgery can buy doesn’t tense up in the blustery Rocky Mountain wind, as Manning throws for his customary 4,300 yards and 30 scores in turning the Broncos into a Super Bowl contender.
Worst Case: Flattened by John Abraham on the Georgia Dome’s carpet in Week 2, Manning’s faith in his neck doesn’t get a chance to be shaken: his career is ended on the spot. '

http://www.rotoworld...eworst-case-qbs

[WhiteWonder]

I thought that last year, and was largely disappointed. Everything points to him being an elite fantasy QB, but it never seems to happen.

why did you think that last year. im sorry but it wasn't hard to see the writing on the wall. how mum indy was on the situation and all the rumors of multiple surgeries rather than just one.

this year seems to be the opposite. would elway and denver sign him if they didnt believe? all reports have been good. there are no whispers of new procedures.

as for those discussing Mannings weapons, D.thomas decker and tamme seem to be as good as anything hes had lately. which is an older wayne, broken down Clark and garcon/collie who we will soon find out of Peyton made them or they were actually good.


i might take Ryan too im really not sure but i think its very very close. And i happen to think peyton has the higher upside.