14 replies to this topic

[Skinny_Bastard]

Current ADP at 5.08.
Ryan had a slow start last year with only 1 multiple TD pass game once in the first 7 games. After the bye in week 8 he really took off with 6 out of the next 9 games with multi TD passes. His yards and QB ratings were also substantially higher. With a new offensive coach in town and expect to be throwing even more this season, Ryan might be the most underrated QB on the draft.

Finished with 4,100 yard passing and 31 TD (2 of them rushing).
Anyone else think it's possible with a new offense that emphasis on the pass and a year under Julio's belt that Ryan takes the next step into the elite QB status?

4,800 yards passing & 33-38 TD passes?

[BufordT]

Actually, it's the "new offense" part that scares me. I'll be selecting others.

A side note that probably means nothing....Atlanta has a "dutch" schedule this year...every other game is home/away. Not sure if I've seen that before.

[Matt Mueller]

Current ADP at 5.08.
Ryan had a slow start last year with only 1 multiple TD pass game once in the first 7 games. After the bye in week 8 he really took off with 6 out of the next 9 games with multi TD passes. His yards and QB ratings were also substantially higher. With a new offensive coach in town and expect to be throwing even more this season, Ryan might be the most underrated QB on the draft.

Finished with 4,100 yard passing and 31 TD (2 of them rushing).
Anyone else think it's possible with a new offense that emphasis on the pass and a year under Julio's belt that Ryan takes the next step into the elite QB status?

4,800 yards passing & 33-38 TD passes?

Right now he's my target if decide to wait on QB for the reasons above.

I'm copying and pasting some of my info from an earlier thread:

'Matt Ryan was underwhelming most of the first half of last year. First 7 games saw one outlier of 4 tds and subar efforts of 5 1 td game and 1 0 td game. Not great and certainly not helping your team win.

However at some point in the middle of the season, whether it was Atlanta going more no huddle, figuring out the line, Ryan getting comfortable with Julio Jones, him getting healthy ect Ryan turned into someone that might not win you a game but at least could be counted on for solid production.

From the 8th game of the season to the 15th, discrediting week 16 where he didn't play much, Ryan averaged 298 yards and he also threw for 18 tds during that stretch.

Ryan finished the season with a stat line of 4,177 and 29 but if we were to extrapolate his second half production he would have been at 4,768 36.

Not a ground breaking difference but something that I thought was worth noting. '


**** After reviewing Ryan and Julio's game logs a bit more, I think the biggest reason for the jump was Jones himself. He took a bunch of passes to the house and had an insane YPC. I think as Julio goes, Ryan goes, as far as making a jump.

[BufordT]

Right now he's my target if decide to wait on QB for the reasons above.

I'm copying and pasting some of my info from an earlier thread:

'Matt Ryan was underwhelming most of the first half of last year. First 7 games saw one outlier of 4 tds and subar efforts of 5 1 td game and 1 0 td game. Not great and certainly not helping your team win.

However at some point in the middle of the season, whether it was Atlanta going more no huddle, figuring out the line, Ryan getting comfortable with Julio Jones, him getting healthy ect Ryan turned into someone that might not win you a game but at least could be counted on for solid production.

From the 8th game of the season to the 15th, discrediting week 16 where he didn't play much, Ryan averaged 298 yards and he also threw for 18 tds during that stretch.

Ryan finished the season with a stat line of 4,177 and 29 but if we were to extrapolate his second half production he would have been at 4,768 36.

Not a ground breaking difference but something that I thought was worth noting. '


**** After reviewing Ryan and Julio's game logs a bit more, I think the biggest reason for the jump was Jones himself. He took a bunch of passes to the house and had an insane YPC. I think as Julio goes, Ryan goes, as far as making a jump.

Atlanta's new OC is the former OC of the Jaguars, Dirk Koetter...supposed vertical passing game guru. I think it's a bit of a risk taking Matt Ryan as your QB1. Ryan was starting to flourish in the old system now he has an OC coming from a run first, low scoring, weak offense. If you're going to wait until round 6-7 to take your QB1 I think Romo may be a better choice or just wait a little longer for guys like Big Ben or Schaub. OMHO.

[madd futher mucker]

I haven't even begun to look at ADPs yet, but it seems to me that Ryan and Cutler have the most upside of the 2nd tier guys. Atlanta's new emphasis on the pass will determine whether Ryan can be elite or a glorified game manager. Similarly, without the 7 step drops and more plays designed to throw out of the pocket, I'm hoping (and expecting) a career season from Cutler. I've targeted both QBs in trades in the Dynasty and deep Keeper leagues I'm in.

[Frozenbeernuts]

If I think he is going to step up his game this year I am probably right. I usually am with QB. RB on the other hand... If I am going to wait on a QB I am going with Matty Ice as my starter. The best way to ensure a good QB. Draft on early. I do expect good numbers from him. Not Brady, Brees, Rodgers numbers but between 2011 Stafford and Romo numbers. Good for 5th-7th best QB this year.

[IGotWorms]

I don't think Matt Ryan will ever be truly elite. But he is a pretty good value at his current ADP as he has a lot of weapons and is in an offense that is clearly committed to throwing the ball. He'll put up good-to-great numbers, but he sure as sh!t doesn't deserve the nickname "Matty Ice" (not that that matters for fantasy purposes).

[Criper]

The thing I like about Matty Ice is that he has gotten better each year:

2008 3440/16:11
2009 2916/22:14 *missed 2 games
2010 3706/28:9
2011 4177/29:12

If you believe the talk that they will throw more and rely on Turner less, and that Ryan will continue his tren of getting better each year, then there's no reason not to think he can't make the leap to just being on the cusp of the upper tier QB's. I'd much rather take him later, than draft one of the elite QB's early. Ryan will be as good as Julio Jones makes him, and I'm sipping the koolaid. My own personal projection on Matt Ryan: 4716/31:13

[420allstars]

This is like 3 years in a row this same topic has come up in FF circles.. I think at this point he is what he is.. some room for improvment but not ever going to be elite IMO

[titans&bucs&bearsohmy!]

I just can't pull the trigger on Ryan as my QB1... I did last year, and I was constantly outgunned at the QB spot all year. This year, I'll either take a stud early or I'll try for a middle tier guy, trying to get TWO middles this year.

I really am targeting Eli this year. He puts up good numers, is consistent, and has decent value. Hell, I may try to get BOTH mannings on my my team this year.

[jocstrap]

They also plan on using Jaquizz(sp) Rogers out of the backfield more. He's an explosive guy on the screens

[Matt Mueller]

I just can't pull the trigger on Ryan as my QB1... I did last year, and I was constantly outgunned at the QB spot all year. This year, I'll either take a stud early or I'll try for a middle tier guy, trying to get TWO middles this year.

I really am targeting Eli this year. He puts up good numers, is consistent, and has decent value. Hell, I may try to get BOTH mannings on my my team this year.

How closely have you looked at Ryan vs Eli's second half?

Im using our Zealtos league stat data but Ryan outscored Eli 172-162 weeks 10-17....and that was with only playing like the first quarter in week 17.

[Skinny_Bastard]

This is like 3 years in a row this same topic has come up in FF circles.. I think at this point he is what he is.. some room for improvment but not ever going to be elite IMO

Hard to say. How many years did it take Brees and Brady before they truly made the jump to elite status?
Took Brady 7 years before he had that insane 4,800 yards and 50+ TD. Prior to that, in his other 6 seasons he was a 3,800 25TD guy.

http://espn.go.com/nfl/player/stats/_/id/2330/tom-brady

Same with Brees.

http://espn.go.com/nfl/player/stats/_/id/2580/drew-brees

It was year 6 & 7 as a starter that Brees made the jump.

[Skinny_Bastard]

How closely have you looked at Ryan vs Eli's second half?

Im using our Zealtos league stat data but Ryan outscored Eli 172-162 weeks 10-17....and that was with only playing like the first quarter in week 17.

I agree.
I saw a few of those falcons game when Ryan 'sort of' took off. Obviously alot of that have to do with Julio. But Julio is still there and with 1 year under his belt Julio might make that leap himself.
Julio, Rody & a sure handed Tony G.

That's about as good of a trio as there is in Football. Ryan in round 5-7 looks like ROCK SOLID. A real game changer for any team on draft night. By waiting for a solid QB in the middle rounds, you can spent an early pick on an elite TE (Gonk & Jimmy Graham) or double up on a solid WR/RB.

[ralphster]

I drafted Ryan in the 6th though I have him projected as a top 8 QB this year. Waiting on a QB was a risk I decided to take because top end RBs are so very thin this year. If Ryan remains in the top ten for passer rating and ATL really does take the wheels off the passing game I believe Ryan will hit 4400+/35/13 type numbers.