Posted 25 July 2013 - 06:13 PM
After last season, I'm starting to wonder if Mike Wallace without Bruce Arians is anything other than ordinary. His first three seasons in Pittsburgh, Wallace caught around 60% of his passes and never had a YPR under 16 yards. Then Arians takes his bombs-away offense to the Colts, and Wallace's YPR drops to 13 in Todd Haley's west coast offense. Now he's going to Mike Sherman's WCO and a 2nd year QB? Color me less than optimistic that he's any better a fit in that WCO than in 2012's. That said, he is the shiny new playmaker in town, and they might just feed him a career high in targets. If Brian Hartline got 131, I can see Wallace racking up 140. I'll say Wallace compiles 74 catches for 1036 yards and 6 TDs, justifying his ADP but not much more.
Smith's first two seasons were mirror images, and now he'll probably be asked to take on more than just the downfield routes that have given him 18 YPR. I don't know what to expect from him yet, but I'll guess a bit more diversity with Pitta, Dickson, and 1-2 of the other wideouts still taking up most of the possession stuff. More targets--120?--lower YPR--15ish--and more catches. 64 receptions, 992 yards, 8 TDs.
I guess that means I like Smith a little more, but if you couldn't tell, I'm not terribly excited about either guy and think both will be a little frustrating to own since they have so much potential. I'd much rather wait another few rounds and take Shorts, Josh Gordon, or Mike Williams, all of whom I think will put up similar numbers to Smith and Wallace at a lower cost.