Jump to content



Photo

**Look-Alike Players 2013: Tom Brady vs. Matt Ryan

Please vote within the thread

  • Please log in to reply
8 replies to this topic

Poll: **Look-Alike Players 2013: Tom Brady vs. Matt Ryan (19 member(s) have cast votes)

Redraft: Tom Brady or Matt Ryan?

  1. Tom Brady (5 votes [26.32%])

    Percentage of vote: 26.32%

  2. Matt Ryan (14 votes [73.68%])

    Percentage of vote: 73.68%

Vote Guests cannot vote

#1 Fumbleweed

Fumbleweed

    FF Geek

  • Members
  • 16,160 posts

Posted 28 July 2013 - 02:01 PM

It's time for another summer of Look-Alike Player threads...if you're new to the Board, every two days during the summer, I will try to post a thread that lists two players who are very close in value in redraft situations. Simply vote for the player you feel should be drafted first and then add comments about your selection if you would like.

This is non-PPR for Look-Alike matchups that involve RBs, WRs, or TEs. Just standard point for every 10 yards and 6 for TDs.

 

The fourth Look-Alike Matchup for this summer is: Tom Brady vs. Matt Ryan

 

Results of other Matchups so far:

 

Stevan Ridley over DeMarco Murray, 19-5.

 

Larry Fitzgerald leads Roddy White, 12-11...

 

Torrey Smith leads Mike Wallace, 8-4...


"Happiness begins when selfishness ends"- John Wooden

#2 rholio

rholio

    FF Geek

  • Members
  • 3,821 posts

Posted 28 July 2013 - 02:42 PM

Won't be drafting either one this year unless they slip quite a bit below their current ADPs.


It's okay if you disagree with me... I can't force you to be right.


#3 rallo

rallo

    FF Geek

  • Members
  • 5,244 posts

Posted 28 July 2013 - 03:26 PM

This seems like it should be Matt Ryan easily right? I mean he has Roddy, Julio, Gonzo, and now Steven Jackson. He plays in a dome. He plays in a division that requires you to put up gobs of points to keep pace... Then you look at Tom Brady, had a bit of a down year last year. Lost Wes Welker and Brandon Lloyd. Hernandez is done. Gronk might miss a few games this season... i mean things are looking bleak for the model-dating all american QB... Not so fast.

 

Most of you will agree that Brady had a down year last year, and has been on a slow decline over the past 2 or 3 seasons. The fact is that he still threw for 4,827 yds and 34 TDs in this 'down year'. Matt Ryan has NEVER eclipsed either of those marks in his career. In fact he has only thrown for 30 TDs once in his career (last year with 32), and only eclipsed 4,200 yds once in his career (once again last year with 4,719.

 

So basically it comes down to this... Ryan had a career year last year... and still did not out perform Brady in a 'down' year. I think Brady and Belicheck find a way to keep the offense chugging along doing what they do best, short quick passes and exploiting mismatches. Everyone thinks that with Gronk and Hernandez out that the Patriots will lean more on the running game. I don't think that this will necessarily be the case as i don't see them running as many 2TE sets. (which was where they most of their success running the football) Instead i see them lining up 3WR and 4WR and hoping players like Edelman and Dobson can step up. This means leaning on the golden arm of Brady.

 

Brady's ADP is 5.05 right now, but i see that dropping with people panicking over the loss of welker and hernandez. I think you could potentially get a bargain with Brady in the 6th round of most drafts. Even if he has another down year Ryan would have to have a career year to win this fantasy matchup...

 

I'll take Brady..


SOUL GLO
12 Team Redraft

Vick, Foles

L. Mccoy, E. Lacy L. Miller, B. Tate
C. Johnson, V. Jackson, J. Blackmon, P. Harvin, N. Washington
J. Cameron
Henery

Random


#4 We Tigers

We Tigers

    FF Geek

  • Members
  • 2,704 posts

Posted 29 July 2013 - 07:13 AM

Good devil's advocate argument, but Brady has a few obstacles to getting back to last year's numbers. His lack of returning receivers has been talked to death, but pace is going to be another issue. Brady's YPA of 7.6 last year was still really good, but his lowest of the Welker/high flying Pats years. His total numbers were up because the Pats ran an absurd number of plays since they could constantly stay no huddle out of their 2-TE set, which just isn't going to exist as such a strong mismatch this year. I think his passing attempts drop back under 600 this year and Ryan finished ahead of him by about 20-30 fantasy points. I have Ryan at QB4 and Brady at QB8 right now.

#5 Mike FF Today

Mike FF Today

    Administrator

  • Admin
  • 9,596 posts

Posted 29 July 2013 - 09:54 AM

This is an easy one for me. I was high on Ryan last season, targeted him in my drafts and was rewarded. This is obviously a new year but Brady's situation hasn't gotten any better and it doesn't take a rocket scientist to see that Brady's talent around him has taken a hit. I think you'll see more emphasis on the run in New England which will ding Brady's number just enough to knock him down below Ryan in 2013.


Follow me to the best fantasy draft program in the business.
_____________

Like FFToday on Facebook | Follow FFToday on Twitter


#6 TimmySmith

TimmySmith

    FF Geek

  • Members
  • 8,251 posts

Posted 29 July 2013 - 11:22 AM

If forced to choose or even if not forced I do not see how one could select a QB that lost his top 5 targets from the previous year.  I would not even think that would be possible.   Then compare that guy to someone who has arguably the best WR/WR/TE trio in the league.  Barring injury, I think this is a walkover.


Thou Mayest


#7 PackYourNut

PackYourNut

    FF Geek

  • Members
  • 3,589 posts

Posted 29 July 2013 - 11:47 AM

This seems like it should be Matt Ryan easily right? I mean he has Roddy, Julio, Gonzo, and now Steven Jackson. He plays in a dome. He plays in a division that requires you to put up gobs of points to keep pace... Then you look at Tom Brady, had a bit of a down year last year. Lost Wes Welker and Brandon Lloyd. Hernandez is done. Gronk might miss a few games this season... i mean things are looking bleak for the model-dating all american QB... Not so fast.

 

Most of you will agree that Brady had a down year last year, and has been on a slow decline over the past 2 or 3 seasons. The fact is that he still threw for 4,827 yds and 34 TDs in this 'down year'. Matt Ryan has NEVER eclipsed either of those marks in his career. In fact he has only thrown for 30 TDs once in his career (last year with 32), and only eclipsed 4,200 yds once in his career (once again last year with 4,719.

 

So basically it comes down to this... Ryan had a career year last year... and still did not out perform Brady in a 'down' year. I think Brady and Belicheck find a way to keep the offense chugging along doing what they do best, short quick passes and exploiting mismatches. Everyone thinks that with Gronk and Hernandez out that the Patriots will lean more on the running game. I don't think that this will necessarily be the case as i don't see them running as many 2TE sets. (which was where they most of their success running the football) Instead i see them lining up 3WR and 4WR and hoping players like Edelman and Dobson can step up. This means leaning on the golden arm of Brady.

 

Brady's ADP is 5.05 right now, but i see that dropping with people panicking over the loss of welker and hernandez. I think you could potentially get a bargain with Brady in the 6th round of most drafts. Even if he has another down year Ryan would have to have a career year to win this fantasy matchup...

 

I'll take Brady..

 

Your post makes sense for last year, but you fail to extrapolate forward... On one hand you have a QB who is declining in production each year and on the other a QB who's production is increasing. If everything remains consistent then those 2 lines will eventually cross and Ryan will outperform Brady. Now, add to the fact that Brady lost 83% of his WR production from last year and you are looking at a scenario where Ryan should and most likely will outperform Brady.

 

Also adding in the fact that this is Ryan's second year in this system and that their offense remains intact with an upgrade at RB and it is all but a certainty, barring injury that Ryan outperforms Brady this year.



#8 rallo

rallo

    FF Geek

  • Members
  • 5,244 posts

Posted 30 July 2013 - 06:03 PM

 

Your post makes sense for last year, but you fail to extrapolate forward... On one hand you have a QB who is declining in production each year and on the other a QB who's production is increasing. If everything remains consistent then those 2 lines will eventually cross and Ryan will outperform Brady. Now, add to the fact that Brady lost 83% of his WR production from last year and you are looking at a scenario where Ryan should and most likely will outperform Brady.

 

Also adding in the fact that this is Ryan's second year in this system and that their offense remains intact with an upgrade at RB and it is all but a certainty, barring injury that Ryan outperforms Brady this year.

I agree with a lot of what you are saying... on if following a trend on paper ryan should potentially overtake Brady this year. I just don't think that it will happen... the patriots were one of the more balanced teams last year, in my opinion a large part of that was due to the 2TE sets that they were running. Conventional wisdom would say that they will lean on Ridley more this year, but i would bet that Belicheck is thinking differently. Sooner or later Matt Ryan will pass Brady... i just don't think that it is this year... it would take another big step forward for Ryan and another step back for Brady... Brady bounces back this year despite the lack of talent around him. Just my 2 cents


SOUL GLO
12 Team Redraft

Vick, Foles

L. Mccoy, E. Lacy L. Miller, B. Tate
C. Johnson, V. Jackson, J. Blackmon, P. Harvin, N. Washington
J. Cameron
Henery

Random


#9 DrG

DrG

    FF Geek

  • Members
  • 1,284 posts

Posted 30 July 2013 - 10:05 PM

Ryan has the better playoff schedule