This seems like it should be Matt Ryan easily right? I mean he has Roddy, Julio, Gonzo, and now Steven Jackson. He plays in a dome. He plays in a division that requires you to put up gobs of points to keep pace... Then you look at Tom Brady, had a bit of a down year last year. Lost Wes Welker and Brandon Lloyd. Hernandez is done. Gronk might miss a few games this season... i mean things are looking bleak for the model-dating all american QB... Not so fast.
Most of you will agree that Brady had a down year last year, and has been on a slow decline over the past 2 or 3 seasons. The fact is that he still threw for 4,827 yds and 34 TDs in this 'down year'. Matt Ryan has NEVER eclipsed either of those marks in his career. In fact he has only thrown for 30 TDs once in his career (last year with 32), and only eclipsed 4,200 yds once in his career (once again last year with 4,719.
So basically it comes down to this... Ryan had a career year last year... and still did not out perform Brady in a 'down' year. I think Brady and Belicheck find a way to keep the offense chugging along doing what they do best, short quick passes and exploiting mismatches. Everyone thinks that with Gronk and Hernandez out that the Patriots will lean more on the running game. I don't think that this will necessarily be the case as i don't see them running as many 2TE sets. (which was where they most of their success running the football) Instead i see them lining up 3WR and 4WR and hoping players like Edelman and Dobson can step up. This means leaning on the golden arm of Brady.
Brady's ADP is 5.05 right now, but i see that dropping with people panicking over the loss of welker and hernandez. I think you could potentially get a bargain with Brady in the 6th round of most drafts. Even if he has another down year Ryan would have to have a career year to win this fantasy matchup...
I'll take Brady..
12 Team Redraft
M. Ingram, J. Stewart, J. Bell, D. McFadden, K. Davis
J. Jones, A. Johnson, M. Evans, T. Williams, E. Royal