A little math.

[onejayhawk 3]

Using the Ourlads draft value table Here, I did a little spreadsheet work. I would post the graph, if I knew how to copy and paste it.

Pick	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30	31	32	33	34	35	36	37	38	39	40	41	42	43	44	45	46	47	48	49	50	51	52	53	54	55	56	57	58	59	60	61	62	63	64	65	66	67	68	69	70	71	72	73	74	75	76	77	78	79	80	81	82	83	84	85	86	87	88	89	90	91	92	93	94	95	96	97	98	99	100	101	102	103	104	105	106	107	108	109	110	111	112	113	114	115	116	117	118	119	120	121	122	123	124	125	126	127	128	129	130	131	132	133	134	135	136	137	138	139	140	141	142	143	144	145	146	147	148	149	150	151	152	153	154	155	156	157	158	159	160	161	162	163	164	165	166	167	168	169	170	171	172	173	174	175	176	177	178	179	180	181	182	183	184	185	186	187	188	189	190	191	192	193	194	195	196	197	198	199	200	201	202	203	204	205	206	207	208	209	210	211	212	213	214	215	216	217	218	219	220	221	222	223	224
LogV	8.01	7.86	7.7	7.5	7.44	7.38	7.31	7.24	7.21	7.17	7.13	7.09	7.05	7	6.96	6.91	6.86	6.8	6.77	6.75	6.68	6.66	6.63	6.61	6.58	6.55	6.52	6.49	6.46	6.43	6.4	6.38	6.36	6.33	6.31	6.29	6.27	6.25	6.23	6.21	6.19	6.17	6.15	6.13	6.11	6.09	6.06	6.04	6.02	5.99	5.97	5.94	5.91	5.89	5.86	5.83	5.8	5.77	5.74	5.7	5.68	5.65	5.62	5.6	5.58	5.56	5.54	5.52	5.5	5.48	5.46	5.44	5.42	5.39	5.37	5.35	5.32	5.3	5.27	5.25	5.22	5.19	5.16	5.14	5.11	5.08	5.04	5.01	4.98	4.94	4.91	4.88	4.85	4.82	4.79	4.75	4.72	4.68	4.64	4.61	4.56	4.52	4.48	4.45	4.43	4.41	4.38	4.36	4.33	4.3	4.28	4.25	4.22	4.19	4.16	4.13	4.09	4.06	4.03	3.99	3.95	3.91	3.89	3.87	3.85	3.83	3.81	3.78	3.76	3.74	3.71	3.69	3.68	3.66	3.65	3.64	3.62	3.61	3.6	3.58	3.57	3.56	3.54	3.53	3.51	3.5	3.48	3.47	3.46	3.45	3.43	3.42	3.41	3.39	3.38	3.37	3.35	3.34	3.33	3.31	3.3	3.28	3.27	3.25	3.23	3.22	3.2	3.19	3.17	3.15	3.14	3.12	3.1	3.08	3.06	3.04	3.03	3.01	2.99	2.97	2.94	2.92	2.9	2.88	2.86	2.83	2.81	2.79	2.76	2.73	2.71	2.68	2.65	2.62	2.6	2.56	2.53	2.5	2.47	2.43	2.4	2.36	2.32	2.28	2.24	2.2	2.15	2.1	2.05	2	1.95	1.89	1.82	1.76	1.69	1.61	1.53	1.44	1.34	1.22	1.1	0.96	0.83	0.69
Line	7.33	7.31	7.28	7.26	7.23	7.2	7.18	7.15	7.13	7.1	7.08	7.05	7.03	7	6.97	6.95	6.92	6.9	6.87	6.85	6.82	6.8	6.77	6.74	6.72	6.69	6.67	6.64	6.62	6.59	6.57	6.54	6.52	6.49	6.46	6.44	6.41	6.39	6.36	6.34	6.31	6.29	6.26	6.23	6.21	6.18	6.16	6.13	6.11	6.08	6.06	6.03	6.01	5.98	5.95	5.93	5.9	5.88	5.85	5.83	5.8	5.78	5.75	5.72	5.7	5.67	5.65	5.62	5.6	5.57	5.55	5.52	5.49	5.47	5.44	5.42	5.39	5.37	5.34	5.32	5.29	5.27	5.24	5.21	5.19	5.16	5.14	5.11	5.09	5.06	5.04	5.01	4.98	4.96	4.93	4.91	4.88	4.86	4.83	4.81	4.78	4.76	4.73	4.7	4.68	4.65	4.63	4.6	4.58	4.55	4.53	4.5	4.47	4.45	4.42	4.4	4.37	4.35	4.32	4.3	4.27	4.24	4.22	4.19	4.17	4.14	4.12	4.09	4.07	4.04	4.02	3.99	3.96	3.94	3.91	3.89	3.86	3.84	3.81	3.79	3.76	3.73	3.71	3.68	3.66	3.63	3.61	3.58	3.56	3.53	3.51	3.48	3.45	3.43	3.4	3.38	3.35	3.33	3.3	3.28	3.25	3.22	3.2	3.17	3.15	3.12	3.1	3.07	3.05	3.02	2.99	2.97	2.94	2.92	2.89	2.87	2.84	2.82	2.79	2.77	2.74	2.71	2.69	2.66	2.64	2.61	2.59	2.56	2.54	2.51	2.48	2.46	2.43	2.41	2.38	2.36	2.33	2.31	2.28	2.26	2.23	2.2	2.18	2.15	2.13	2.1	2.08	2.05	2.03	2	1.97	1.95	1.92	1.9	1.87	1.85	1.82	1.8	1.77	1.74	1.72	1.69	1.67	1.64
Value	3000	2600	2200	1800	1700	1600	1500	1400	1350	1300	1250	1200	1150	1100	1050	1000	950	900	875	850	800	780	760	740	720	700	680	660	640	620	600	590	580	560	550	540	530	520	510	500	490	480	470	460	450	440	430	420	410	400	390	380	370	360	350	340	330	320	310	300	292	284	276	270	265	260	255	250	245	240	235	230	225	220	215	210	205	200	195	190	185	180	175	170	165	160	155	150	145	140	136	132	128	124	120	116	112	108	104	100	96	92	88	86	84	82	80	78	76	74	72	70	68	66	64	62	60	58	56	54	52	50	49	48	47	46	45	44	43	42	41	40	39.5	39	38.5	38	37.5	37	36.5	36	35.5	35	34.5	34	33.5	33	32.6	32.2	31.8	31.4	31	30.6	30.2	29.8	29.4	29	28.6	28.2	27.8	27.4	27	26.6	26.2	25.8	25.4	25	24.6	24.2	23.8	23.4	23	22.6	22.2	21.8	21.4	21	20.6	20.2	19.8	19.4	19	18.6	18.2	17.8	17.4	17	16.6	16.2	15.8	15.4	15	14.6	14.2	13.8	13.4	13	12.6	12.2	11.8	11.4	11	10.6	10.2	9.8	9.4	9	8.6	8.2	7.8	7.4	7	6.6	6.2	5.8	5.4	5	4.6	4.2	3.8	3.4	3	2.6	2.3	2

 

Bottom line, its pretty close to a straight linear in a log graph, or a true log curve, depending on your perspective. The interesting point is that the early picks on both days are higher valued than the fitted line, and the end picks really fall off.

 

A little background to anyone that has not seen one of these. The idea is that two combinations of picks with the same sum, are an even trade. So Pick #6 at 1600, is worth Pick #10, 1300 plus pick #60, 300. Future picks are devalued one round per year. By this basis, no team lower than Pick #3 can realistically try to trade just draft picks for the overall first pick. I personally think that's excessive. Still, for a team like, say, the Jets to trade up, they would need to pay both 1st round picks and something more.

 

J

[gatorbait7391 0]

Using the Ourlads draft value table Here, I did a little spreadsheet work. I would post the graph, if I knew how to copy and paste it.

Pick	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30	31	32	33	34	35	36	37	38	39	40	41	42	43	44	45	46	47	48	49	50	51	52	53	54	55	56	57	58	59	60	61	62	63	64	65	66	67	68	69	70	71	72	73	74	75	76	77	78	79	80	81	82	83	84	85	86	87	88	89	90	91	92	93	94	95	96	97	98	99	100	101	102	103	104	105	106	107	108	109	110	111	112	113	114	115	116	117	118	119	120	121	122	123	124	125	126	127	128	129	130	131	132	133	134	135	136	137	138	139	140	141	142	143	144	145	146	147	148	149	150	151	152	153	154	155	156	157	158	159	160	161	162	163	164	165	166	167	168	169	170	171	172	173	174	175	176	177	178	179	180	181	182	183	184	185	186	187	188	189	190	191	192	193	194	195	196	197	198	199	200	201	202	203	204	205	206	207	208	209	210	211	212	213	214	215	216	217	218	219	220	221	222	223	224
LogV	8.01	7.86	7.7	7.5	7.44	7.38	7.31	7.24	7.21	7.17	7.13	7.09	7.05	7	6.96	6.91	6.86	6.8	6.77	6.75	6.68	6.66	6.63	6.61	6.58	6.55	6.52	6.49	6.46	6.43	6.4	6.38	6.36	6.33	6.31	6.29	6.27	6.25	6.23	6.21	6.19	6.17	6.15	6.13	6.11	6.09	6.06	6.04	6.02	5.99	5.97	5.94	5.91	5.89	5.86	5.83	5.8	5.77	5.74	5.7	5.68	5.65	5.62	5.6	5.58	5.56	5.54	5.52	5.5	5.48	5.46	5.44	5.42	5.39	5.37	5.35	5.32	5.3	5.27	5.25	5.22	5.19	5.16	5.14	5.11	5.08	5.04	5.01	4.98	4.94	4.91	4.88	4.85	4.82	4.79	4.75	4.72	4.68	4.64	4.61	4.56	4.52	4.48	4.45	4.43	4.41	4.38	4.36	4.33	4.3	4.28	4.25	4.22	4.19	4.16	4.13	4.09	4.06	4.03	3.99	3.95	3.91	3.89	3.87	3.85	3.83	3.81	3.78	3.76	3.74	3.71	3.69	3.68	3.66	3.65	3.64	3.62	3.61	3.6	3.58	3.57	3.56	3.54	3.53	3.51	3.5	3.48	3.47	3.46	3.45	3.43	3.42	3.41	3.39	3.38	3.37	3.35	3.34	3.33	3.31	3.3	3.28	3.27	3.25	3.23	3.22	3.2	3.19	3.17	3.15	3.14	3.12	3.1	3.08	3.06	3.04	3.03	3.01	2.99	2.97	2.94	2.92	2.9	2.88	2.86	2.83	2.81	2.79	2.76	2.73	2.71	2.68	2.65	2.62	2.6	2.56	2.53	2.5	2.47	2.43	2.4	2.36	2.32	2.28	2.24	2.2	2.15	2.1	2.05	2	1.95	1.89	1.82	1.76	1.69	1.61	1.53	1.44	1.34	1.22	1.1	0.96	0.83	0.69
Line	7.33	7.31	7.28	7.26	7.23	7.2	7.18	7.15	7.13	7.1	7.08	7.05	7.03	7	6.97	6.95	6.92	6.9	6.87	6.85	6.82	6.8	6.77	6.74	6.72	6.69	6.67	6.64	6.62	6.59	6.57	6.54	6.52	6.49	6.46	6.44	6.41	6.39	6.36	6.34	6.31	6.29	6.26	6.23	6.21	6.18	6.16	6.13	6.11	6.08	6.06	6.03	6.01	5.98	5.95	5.93	5.9	5.88	5.85	5.83	5.8	5.78	5.75	5.72	5.7	5.67	5.65	5.62	5.6	5.57	5.55	5.52	5.49	5.47	5.44	5.42	5.39	5.37	5.34	5.32	5.29	5.27	5.24	5.21	5.19	5.16	5.14	5.11	5.09	5.06	5.04	5.01	4.98	4.96	4.93	4.91	4.88	4.86	4.83	4.81	4.78	4.76	4.73	4.7	4.68	4.65	4.63	4.6	4.58	4.55	4.53	4.5	4.47	4.45	4.42	4.4	4.37	4.35	4.32	4.3	4.27	4.24	4.22	4.19	4.17	4.14	4.12	4.09	4.07	4.04	4.02	3.99	3.96	3.94	3.91	3.89	3.86	3.84	3.81	3.79	3.76	3.73	3.71	3.68	3.66	3.63	3.61	3.58	3.56	3.53	3.51	3.48	3.45	3.43	3.4	3.38	3.35	3.33	3.3	3.28	3.25	3.22	3.2	3.17	3.15	3.12	3.1	3.07	3.05	3.02	2.99	2.97	2.94	2.92	2.89	2.87	2.84	2.82	2.79	2.77	2.74	2.71	2.69	2.66	2.64	2.61	2.59	2.56	2.54	2.51	2.48	2.46	2.43	2.41	2.38	2.36	2.33	2.31	2.28	2.26	2.23	2.2	2.18	2.15	2.13	2.1	2.08	2.05	2.03	2	1.97	1.95	1.92	1.9	1.87	1.85	1.82	1.8	1.77	1.74	1.72	1.69	1.67	1.64
Value	3000	2600	2200	1800	1700	1600	1500	1400	1350	1300	1250	1200	1150	1100	1050	1000	950	900	875	850	800	780	760	740	720	700	680	660	640	620	600	590	580	560	550	540	530	520	510	500	490	480	470	460	450	440	430	420	410	400	390	380	370	360	350	340	330	320	310	300	292	284	276	270	265	260	255	250	245	240	235	230	225	220	215	210	205	200	195	190	185	180	175	170	165	160	155	150	145	140	136	132	128	124	120	116	112	108	104	100	96	92	88	86	84	82	80	78	76	74	72	70	68	66	64	62	60	58	56	54	52	50	49	48	47	46	45	44	43	42	41	40	39.5	39	38.5	38	37.5	37	36.5	36	35.5	35	34.5	34	33.5	33	32.6	32.2	31.8	31.4	31	30.6	30.2	29.8	29.4	29	28.6	28.2	27.8	27.4	27	26.6	26.2	25.8	25.4	25	24.6	24.2	23.8	23.4	23	22.6	22.2	21.8	21.4	21	20.6	20.2	19.8	19.4	19	18.6	18.2	17.8	17.4	17	16.6	16.2	15.8	15.4	15	14.6	14.2	13.8	13.4	13	12.6	12.2	11.8	11.4	11	10.6	10.2	9.8	9.4	9	8.6	8.2	7.8	7.4	7	6.6	6.2	5.8	5.4	5	4.6	4.2	3.8	3.4	3	2.6	2.3	2

 

Bottom line, its pretty close to a straight linear in a log graph, or a true log curve, depending on your perspective. The interesting point is that the early picks on both days are higher valued than the fitted line, and the end picks really fall off.

 

A little background to anyone that has not seen one of these. The idea is that two combinations of picks with the same sum, are an even trade. So Pick #6 at 1600, is worth Pick #10, 1300 plus pick #60, 300. Future picks are devalued one round per year. By this basis, no team lower than Pick #3 can realistically try to trade just draft picks for the overall first pick. I personally think that's excessive. Still, for a team like, say, the Jets to trade up, they would need to pay both 1st round picks and something more.

 

J

 

Weird

[CA_7 0]

[ellisonb11 0]

Weird

 

 

agreed.. too many numbers...

[jocstrap 8]

One Jayhawk - what that hell is that thing? Do we read it left to right? right to left? up and down? I don't even know what you are trying to tell us. Looks like hyroglyphics in an egyptian tomb. Your a good man on this board but what happened here?

[onejayhawk 3]

One Jayhawk - what that hell is that thing? Do we read it left to right? right to left? up and down? I don't even know what you are trying to tell us. Looks like hyroglyphics in an egyptian tomb. Your a good man on this board but what happened here?

OK. Its not as clear as when you see it on a spreadsheet. Suffice to say, its just a little playing with the chart Here. See also below.If you copy and paste it into a a spreadsheet, like Excel, it will produce a graph showing a baseline, and the log value of the data, which is the bottom line.

 

The point here is that except for the first few picks, which are higher, the price of a draft pick is reducable to a simple exponetial curve. The first three picks are overpriced compared to the rest.

 

Here is the raw data. First two columns are round 1, next two are round two, etc.

1 3,000 33 580 65 265 97 112 129 43 161 27 193 14.2 
2 2,600 34 560 66 260 98 108 130 42 162 26.6 194 13.8 
3 2,200 35 550 67 255 99 104 131 41 163 26.2 195 13.4 
4 1,800 36 540 68 250 100 100 132 40 164 25.8 196 13 
5 1,700 37 530 69 245 101 96 133 39.5 165 25.4 197 12.6 
6 1,600 38 520 70 240 102 92 134 39 166 25 198 12.2 
7 1,500 39 510 71 235 103 88 135 38.5 167 24.6 199 11.8 
8 1,400 40 500 72 230 104 86 136 38 168 24.2 200 11.4 
9 1,350 41 490 73 225 105 84 137 37.5 169 23.8 201 11 
10 1,300 42 480 74 220 106 82 138 37 170 23.4 202 10.6 
11 1,250 43 470 75 215 107 80 139 36.5 171 23 203 10.2 
12 1,200 44 460 76 210 108 78 140 36 172 22.6 204 9.8 
13 1,150 45 450 77 205 109 76 141 35.5 173 22.2 205 9.4 
14 1,100 46 440 78 200 110 74 142 35 174 21.8 206 9 
15 1,050 47 430 79 195 111 72 143 34.5 175 21.4 207 8.6 
16 1,000 48 420 80 190 112 70 144 34 176 21 208 8.2 
17 950 49 410 81 185 113 68 145 33.5 177 20.6 209 7.8 
18 900 50 400 82 180 114 66 146 33 178 20.2 210 7.4 
19 875 51 390 83 175 115 64 147 32.6 179 19.8 211 7 
20 850 52 380 84 170 116 62 148 32.2 180 19.4 212 6.6 
21 800 53 370 85 165 117 60 149 31.8 181 19 213 6.2 
22 780 54 360 86 160 118 58 150 31.4 182 18.6 214 5.8 
23 760 55 350 87 155 119 56 151 31 183 18.2 215 5.4 
24 740 56 340 88 150 120 54 152 30.6 184 17.8 216 5 
25 720 57 330 89 145 121 52 153 30.2 185 17.4 217 4.6 
26 700 58 320 90 140 122 50 154 29.8 186 17 218 4.2 
27 680 59 310 91 136 123 49 155 29.4 187 16.6 219 3.8 
28 660 60 300 92 132 124 48 156 29 188 16.2 220 3.4 
29 640 61 292 93 128 125 47 157 28.6 189 15.8 221 3 
30 620 62 284 94 124 126 46 158 28.2 190 15.4 222 2.6 
31 600 63 276 95 120 127 45 159 27.8 191 15 223 2.3 
32 590 64 270 96 116 128 44 160 27.4 192 14.6 224 2

 

J

[adrenaline 0]

I understand the pick & the values. What are logv & line and how do they figure into it? I'm really interested in this.

[b.j. booker 0]

I'd rather have 7 and 8 instead of 1

[harken34 0]

[swamp dog 0]

impressive, but immaterial. draft day trades are ruled by emotion more so than math.

 

case in point: the browns giving the lions a high 2nd-round pick to move up ONE SPOT (from 1.7 to 1.6) so the browns could take winslow...and detroit still got the guy they wanted (roy williams).

 

the browns certainly coughed up more than the value chart indicated when pressed and put on the spot.

[onejayhawk 3]

impressive, but immaterial. draft day trades are ruled by emotion more so than math.

 

case in point: the browns giving the lions a high 2nd-round pick to move up ONE SPOT (from 1.7 to 1.6) so the browns could take winslow...and detroit still got the guy they wanted (roy williams).

 

the browns certainly coughed up more than the value chart indicated when pressed and put on the spot.

That happens in an emergency situation. The buyer paid a premium, just like in any sale where one party is forced to act. But dont think it has no impact. Think of all the trades where they trade an extra 4th or 5th pick, and or places in the 3rd round. Every team has a version of this, and its a starting palce for negotiations.

 

J

[Slush Puppy 0]

I'd rather have 7 and 8 instead of 1

 

thats exactly what I was thinking of when I saw the chart. But the chart is supposed to reflect accurate possibilities, and it is highly unlikely a team has the 7th and 8th picks overall that they can use to trade for the 1st. A likely trade would be the 1st overall for the 2nd overall and the 34th overll, and that is how I think the chart should be used

[onejayhawk 3]

thats exactly what I was thinking of when I saw the chart. But the chart is supposed to reflect accurate possibilities, and it is highly unlikely a team has the 7th and 8th picks overall that they can use to trade for the 1st. A likely trade would be the 1st overall for the 2nd overall and the 34th overll, and that is how I think the chart should be used

Well actually, it would #1, #97 and #129 for #2 and #34, or something like that. You have a point about a team with two top 10 picks being better off with two players than one. Still, if a tream thought that the one player would be a franchise player, especially a QB, it might happen.

 

J

[sharkie22 0]

That chart is exactly the reason as many draft trades don't happen. Teams are subjectively measuring players value to their team as fixed commodities and that doesn't really measure up. Look at the success Jimmy Johnson had exploiting it for extra picks when he was in Dallas. You'd have to say the Chargers did pretty well too 6 years ago by trading out of their first pick and getting Tomlinson and Brees for it.

[swamp dog 0]

thats exactly what I was thinking of when I saw the chart. But the chart is supposed to reflect accurate possibilities, and it is highly unlikely a team has the 7th and 8th picks overall that they can use to trade for the 1st. A likely trade would be the 1st overall for the 2nd overall and the 34th overll, and that is how I think the chart should be used

 

what the chart does expose is the ignorance of fans who think they're team is going to magically trade into the top-5 area by offering a mid-late 1st and a 3rd...or a bag of footballs. that kind of talk always cracks me up.

[onejayhawk 3]

what the chart does expose is the ignorance of fans who think they're team is going to magically trade into the top-5 area by offering a mid-late 1st and a 3rd...or a bag of footballs. that kind of talk always cracks me up.

DING..DING..DING..DING..DING..DING..DING..DING..DING..DING..

 

J

[IAMWood 6]

DING..DING..DING..DING..DING..DING..DING..DING..DING..DING..

 

J

 

Glad I am not the only math geek out here. If I was a front office guy. This would definitely be a tool so I can empirically look at a trade without emotion. Nice.

 

[The Brain 0]

http://www.footballguys.com/pickvalue.htm

 

Football guys already made a program to do it. And it doesn't match up with your calcualtions (no offense intended).

[Let Da Big Dog Eat 37]

http://www.footballguys.com/pickvalue.htm

 

Football guys already made a program to do it. And it doesn't match up with your calcualtions (no offense intended).

 

 

FG calculator does not use the same values. Example, Pick 1 is worth 1889. Think it's intended more for FF anyway but that's a guess.

[The Brain 0]

FG calculator does not use the same values. Example, Pick 1 is worth 1889. Think it's intended more for FF anyway but that's a guess.

 

I think it is more FF related but with the examples posted it is also more realisitic (plug in 1 for 7 and 8 OR the 5 for a late first and a early third). what ever math equation was used seems more realisitc to to what teams really do.

[onejayhawk 3]

http://www.footballguys.com/pickvalue.htm

 

Football guys already made a program to do it. And it doesn't match up with your calcualtions (no offense intended).

I had not seen that. However, it does not fit the NFL draft, since they are not drafting a whole team. The calculator shows a drop of only 63 points from #1 to #2, out of almost 2000. That is not nearly enough. This is, IMO, because the NFL draft has a form of inflation like you see in dynasty league drafts, which makes sense since the NFL is a dynasty league of sorts.

 

J