***Official Week 3 College Football Wagering Thread***

[phillybear 364]

Wow, Philly, sorry that I have to disagree with you here, you can lose by a max of 14...give up the 8 first then give up a pick-six.

 

Believe me, I am aware of that rule. I once won a big bet when a team picked and scored to win by 13, when I was laying 9. Fluke win to say the least. I think it was UCLA, or maybe Cal, that did it. Pac 10 team for sure. Not positive which one. Maybe 12 years ago.

 

They changed that rule a few years back. If you are winning, and get the turnover, you cannot get extra points on an extra score. You cannot win by more than 8. I don't believe you can get an extra 2 on a fluke safety either. As soon as possesion changes hands, the game ends. Scoring doesn't count. Win by 8. That's it.

[cribdog 0]

Believe me, I am aware of that rule. I once won a big bet when a team picked and scored to win by 13, when I was laying 9. Fluke win to say the least. I think it was UCLA, or maybe Cal, that did it. Pac 10 team for sure. Not positive which one. Maybe 12 years ago.

 

They changed that rule a few years back. If you are winning, and get the turnover, you cannot get extra points on an extra score. You cannot win by more than 8. I don't believe you can get an extra 2 on a fluke safety either. As soon as possesion changes hands, the game ends. Scoring doesn't count. Win by 8. That's it.

 

Really? Wow, news to me....never ceases to amaze me what I can learn on this board.

[Yer mom 2]

Gotta refresh my drink.

 

Way ahead of ya

 

[greyhounds 0]

Philly, can you post Dr.Bobs NCAA and NFL picks when you get a chance. I just want to see who he is on this week. Would be much appreciated.

 

Now thats FUNNY....right PB???

[needmoremoney 0]

NCAAF YTD: 29-15-0 +18.25 units

NFL YTD: 0-1-0 -1.05 units

 

WEST VIRGINIA -16.5 @ MARYLAND 3 units WINNER

 

West Virginia has too much speed for Maryland's front and secondary. I dont' see how this game will be even close. Maryland's QBs have yet to throw with much success and WV's run D should stop a few drives. The only chance I see Maryland cover is if their RB's Lattimore and Ball continue their success from last two games. Just not sure I can believe in Maryland's ability to keep it close with a 35% 3rd down conversion rate last week @ Florida Intl, and scoring only 26 after capitalizing on 2 turnovers. WV covers this handily.

 

TCU @ AIRFORCE +8 2 units WINNER

 

TCU no longer has the depth on offense as it used to. In fact, the only offensive player that AF has to worry about is Aaron Brown (who is questionable for the game!). QB Andy Dalton has been impressive for his first year against Baylor and somewhat against Texas, but still needs more games under his belt to build his confidence. I believe Air Force will keep it close, and perhaps even eek out a win here as they will find large holes in TCUs run D. Most importantly, AF has K Ryan Harrison who has the accuracy and distance to put up a few FGs to offset a score or two from TCU. As long as AF protects the ball when they run, I don't see a blowout so I'll take the points at home.

 

I'll lock in my bets later tonight so I would appreciate any other insight that other people may have.

 

NCAAF YTD: 31-15-0 +23.25 units

NFL YTD: 0-1-0 -1.05 units

 

Nice gain. Lets keep rolling this weekend. And yes.. i know AF isnt over yet but it really is

[Yer mom 2]

I would take a long, hard look at UCLA @ Utah.

 

Utah will be playing without four starters offensively, including QB Brian Johnson, TB Matt Asiata, top WR Brent Casteel, and their best OL Jason Boone. Utah is averaging just 254 yards of total offense in their first two games, which were against Oregon St. and Air Force. UCLA's defense is, at the very least, as good as Oregon St.'s and Air Force's, and at best, much much better than both of those schools. UCLA is 9th in the country in rush defense. Utah is averaging 1.4 yards per rush and 45 yards rushing thus far. Their starting QB, former Sooner Tommy Grady, is completing less than 50% of his passes.

 

Defensively, Utah lost their staring DT Gabe Long last week. This is terrible news for a defensive unit that is giving up an average of 287 yards per game rushing, which puts them at #113 in the country. UCLA rushed for 120 yards last week against a very good BYU defense and more than 300 yards two weeks ago against Stanford.

 

This should be a blowout in a game in which UCLA is only giving up 15 1/2 points. I'll be giving up the points and taking the Bruins this week.

 

 

As a UCLA homer, yes sir, I concur

[PackYourNut 47]

What a joke... not only 21 points in the 4th quarter, but they throw an INT in the endzone with 50 seconds left from AF 20... Geez that sux... Chance it still gets under but I doubt it... Oh well...

[phillybear 364]

Philly, can you post Dr.Bobs NCAA and NFL picks when you get a chance. I just want to see who he is on this week. Would be much appreciated.

 

3 stars: Miami OH, Kansas

2 stars: Kentucky

Strong opinions (not official plays): UCLA, Miss St

 

I like his best bets. I think I mentioned earlier in this thread the danger of playing on Cincy. Kansas has a revenge game with a lousy Toledo team, and Kansas is drilling teams this year so far. Louisville's defense stinks, and Kentucky is an underrated team. Hell, Kentucky went to a bowl game last year. That game is a shootout, but Kentucky's defense is better, and is a live home dog. I faded Utah last week, and I had circled UCLA this week. Miss St, eh, not crazy about that one. I have to look it over again. Seems to be a blind play against an overrated Auburn team.

 

NFL: I don't think he is selling any plays this week. He posted a bunch of free analysis instead. I haven't read any of it yet, so I don't know if he has a best bet play, but his NFL has stunk the last few years, so I would recommend ignoring it.

[phillybear 364]

TCU first possession in OT ends in a FG attempt that doinks off the upright. No good.

 

AF can win with a score.

[Bouve 0]

3 stars: Miami OH, Kansas

2 stars: Kentucky

Strong opinions (not official plays): UCLA, Miss St

 

Thanks.

[greyhounds 0]

Phily Bear...Thanks for the updates on TCU/Air Force...I have the Under 42

[phillybear 364]

AF FG attempt upcoming....GOOD.

 

Final score: AF wins in comeback style 20-17

[dpollaro 0]

was that game fixed?????

[phillybear 364]

Phily Bear...Thanks for the updates on TCU/Air Force...I have the Under 42

 

No problem. Happy to help out. When it was posted that Direct TV users didn't have the game, I figured I should try to help out.

 

I just hate to clutter the thread with the updates.

[The.Damned 0]

WV -16.5 - winner 2 units

Wv -7.5 2nd half - winner 2 units

 

NCAA YTD 7-7 up 4 units

NFL YTD 4-0 up 8 units

[Day Old Doughnut 0]

Phily Bear...Thanks for the updates on TCU/Air Force...I have the Under 42

 

Sure you did, Sparky.

[phillybear 364]

was that game fixed?????

 

Which one?

 

WV probably should have won by more, but still covered the majority of the WV tickets.

 

TCU simply gave the game away. They didn't capitalize on all the possession they had in AF territory in the 3rd quarter, and then missed a tackle to set up AF first TD, and was completely fooled on a misdirection toss play that AF broke for a long TD. I am a big believer in some games are fixed, but I think both games tonight were clean for the sides. Over/under? Can't say. I didn't pay much attention to it.

[phillybear 364]

CFL 25-16; +20.3 units

Overall NCAA YTD: 34-29-1; +4.6 units

Subset: 2 unit plays or higher: 24-19-1; 5.5 units

Subset: 1st or 2nd H plays: 6-2; +8.7 units

 

Thursday

 

West Virginia (-16.5) for 2 units WINNER

Adding: Air Force (+3) 2nd H for 2 units WINNER

 

The march to respectability continues. After a disastrous start to the season, down 11 units after week one, I didn't tuck my tail between my legs and bail out. Kept posting the lousy record, and low and behold, I've turned it around somewhat in a week and a half. Hit another halftime play; they've been going good so far. Let's keep this momentum going.

 

 

CFL 25-16; +20.3 units

Overall NCAA YTD: 36-29-1; +8.6 units

Subset: 2 unit plays or higher: 26-19-1; +9.5 units

Subset: 1st or 2nd H plays: 7-2; +10.7 units

[phillybear 364]

Really? Wow, news to me....never ceases to amaze me what I can learn on this board.

 

I missed the rule change when it happened. Somebody pointed it out to me. Just sharing the info.

[dpollaro 0]

i guess im just a lil pissed that tcu gave the game away..they went up 17-3 and were dominating........then nothing went right...........went 0-2 tonight..went from thinking i would go 2-0 tonight to 0-2.......got to come up big on sat

[phillybear 364]

Thank you...i love you.

 

I mancrush Philly

 

Rereading some of these post after the games are over can be a source of hilarity. Thanks for the sentiments, but please finish a post like this with "No Homo", and all is right in the world. GiantsRule will confirm this "man law", according to O&A with little Jimmy.

 

Dam, GR. I was debating going to the live show tomorrow morning at the TLA, but I need to get there by 5:00AM, and I know that I need to sleep off my hangover. The perils of having a government job that gives you 2 days off for Rosh Hassanah(sp?). Drinking season is in full swing.

 

Maybe I'll still go after I catch my second wind. Decisions, decisions.

[GiantsRule 0]

Now thats FUNNY....right PB???

 

Douche, you said you were leaving the board. Keep your fvcking promise for a change!

[phillybear 364]

GR, I think I'm gonna go for it. Get up at 4:00 AM. And go to the live Opie and Anthony broadcast. That has to be sweet.

 

Then again, I've been averaging a little under 2 hours of sleep this week per night. Decisions, decisons. Fock it. I'm going.

 

I need to get some sleep. Later.

[GiantsRule 0]

Friends,

 

Promise to never do this again, but...

 

Damn it feels good to be a genius!!!

 

Done

 

Good Luck!!

 

You're no longer good at this. You're downright scary.

 

I'm only taking one game on the whole slate Saturday and it's your USC-Nebraska Over 51 play for a decent amount. The fact you like it is good enough for me, but expecting the line to be 60 and it's actually 51? That's a no-brainer! Best of luck and let's hope for some instant gratification success on Sunday afternoon as well!

 

[GiantsRule 0]

GR, I think I'm gonna go for it. Get up at 4:00 AM. And go to the live Opie and Anthony broadcast. That has to be sweet.

 

Then again, I've been averaging a little under 2 hours of sleep this week per night. Decisions, decisons. Fock it. I'm going.

 

I need to get some sleep. Later.

 

Congrats on the wins bud!

 

Definitely check out the show. I went to the one at Mohegan Sun in CT (big surprise, huh?) and it was fvcking incredible. Otto & George, Louis CK, and Rich Vos would have been worth it by itself - the other 5 acts just put it over the top. You're definitely in for a cringe-worthy moment because it is Philly and they'll boo a headliner, no matter how funny or popular they are.

 

Have a great time!

[phillybear 364]

Congrats on the wins bud!

 

Definitely check out the show. I went to the one at Mohegan Sun in CT (big surprise, huh) and it was fvcking incredible. Otto & George, Louis CK, and Rich Vos would have been worth it by itself - the other 5 acts just put it over the top. You're definitely in for a cringe-worthy moment because it is Philly and they'll boo a headliner, no matter how funny or popular they are.

 

Have a great time!

 

NO. NO. NO. I'm not going to the Virus Comedy Tour. That's on a football Saturday, and I have my priorities. I mean this mornings broadcast, featuring Car Crash Comedy, open mike to replace Ed McGonnigal. It's at a Philly downtown music club, free admission, but I need to get there before they fill the building. And they very well might. I went to Kidd Chris's birthday party at a club called Whisky Tango a few months ago. They ended up with about 2,000 people in the building, easily the most populated night in that clubs history, by about a thousand. I've spent a little bit of time ranting on whackbag about how stupid WYSP format change was.

 

Anyway, I need to get my 3 hours of sleep, then head out.

[GiantsRule 0]

NO. NO. NO. I'm not going to the Virus Comedy Tour. That's on a football Saturday, and I have my priorities. I mean this mornings broadcast, featuring Car Crash Comedy, open mike to replace Ed McGonnigal. It's at a Philly downtown music club, free admission, but I need to get there before they fill the building. And they very well might. I went to Kidd Chris's birthday party at a club called Whisky Tango a few months ago. They ended up with about 2,000 people in the building, easily the most populated night in that clubs history, by about a thousand. I've spent a little bit of time ranting on whackbag about how stupid WYSP format change was.

 

Anyway, I need to get my 3 hours of sleep, then head out.

 

Even better. I'm sure Anthony will appreciate another gambling generate in the studio. Good luck getting in and have a great time!

 

[Fred Flintstone]Bet? BET..BET..BET.BET! BET! BET![/Fred Flintstone]

[needmoremoney 0]

NCAAF YTD: 31-15-0 +23.25 units

NFL YTD: 0-1-0 -1.05 units

 

Friday

OKLAHOMA STATE @ TROY o62.5 2 units

I want to take the dog at home..a dog that has some bite , but I just can't get myself to do it this time. It's been a while since this dog played at home and I am counting on a respectable showing on offense, but not on defense since the talent isn't there. They have given up huge gains on special teams and defense. But I like their QB to lead them down for at least 3 scores at home and their K has nice distance and accuracy. Oklahoma St had a great offense last year but lost key players; however I do like Zac Robinson as a replacement QB for this game and their WR/RB depth. I like my eggs over easy, just like this o/u line.

 

Saturday

 

Here is what I am leaning for saturday but haven't locked in most of them yet and may play up/down units after research tonight...depending on how sober i am tonight, ill write something formal up otherwise i'll post my final plays before tomorrow morning.

 

NORTH CAROLINA -3 1 unit

PENN STATE -34 1 unit

CENTRAL MICHIGAN +21½ 2 units

MIAMI OHIO +7 1 unit

KANSAS -24 2 units

OREGON -16½ 1 unit

MICHIGAN STATE -11 1 unit

UCLA -15½ 1 unit

HOUSTON U -14 1 unit

KENTUCKY +5.5 1 unit

STANFORD -7 1 unit

[Yer mom 2]

You're no longer good at this. You're downright scary.

 

I'm only taking one game on the whole slate Saturday and it's your USC-Nebraska Over 51 play for a decent amount. The fact you like it is good enough for me, but expecting the line to be 60 and it's actually 51? That's a no-brainer! Best of luck and let's hope for some instant gratification success on Sunday afternoon as well!

 

 

 

Appreciate the high accolades, just hope to keep things rollin, what goes up must come down just hopefully not anytime soon.

 

The oddsmakers have it right based on USC's riciculous D but I just figure for a throw the stats out the window type game between these two, if the game was in So Cal id stay away. USCs WR's are a different unit from last year obviously but im not expecting a big drop off in performance so I love the line at 51. Nebraska had Utah State and went on the road and hung a 20 spot against a decent Wake Forest home team, which surely they didnt open the playbook since their superbowl is this weekend so to ask 21+ from them here makes plenty of sense. The line is actually dropping, its now at 50.5 so people out there are on the under.

 

Pete Carroll unfortunately isnt a "lets impress the BCS" type guy so they wont try and West Virginia anybody, but they should be ready to roll a 35 spot here. I love this stat though:

 

USC: Over is 8-3 in USC last 11 non-conference games.

 

Nebraska: Over is 10-1 in NEB last 11 home games.

 

May not be my lead piper of the week yet, but its good enough for me thus far...

 

 

Good Luck!!

[PackYourNut 47]

Ahhh... Karma...

[Grind 0]

Talk about frustration. Grab Maryland +16 ½ and settle in for a night of football. First three and a half plus quarters go by and it isn’t looking good. Then Maryland scores a TD to make it 31-13. This is where I have no clue what and why what happened next happened. Maryland decides they don’t want to try to make the game a two score game and go for two points. Instead, they apparently have given up on coming back altogether and kick the extra point to make it 31-14. Guess there is always next week for Maryland. Then it gets weird. They kick an onside kick? So they elect to keep it a three score game late in the fourth quarter instead of making it a two score game, but then follow up that decision by kicking the onside kick? Is it just me, or did the coach completely contradict himself? Decisions like this really separate the good coaches from the bad coaches. Obviously, last night the decision wasn’t going to matter either way as WVU was going to win the game. The real problem arises when Maryland is in close games and every decision matters. If Maryland’s coach makes these inconsistent decisions during not so close games, I can’t imagine what he’d do in a pressure cooker. As stated above, I lost my bet by a ½ point, so maybe my entire opinion here is clouded. I don’t know. I just don’t understand the sequence of events.

[dmaidlow73 0]

NCAAF YTD: 31-15-0 +23.25 units

NFL YTD: 0-1-0 -1.05 units

 

Friday

OKLAHOMA STATE @ TROY o62.5 2 units

I want to take the dog at home..a dog that has some bite , but I just can't get myself to do it this time. It's been a while since this dog played at home and I am counting on a respectable showing on offense, but not on defense since the talent isn't there. They have given up huge gains on special teams and defense. But I like their QB to lead them down for at least 3 scores at home and their K has nice distance and accuracy. Oklahoma St had a great offense last year but lost key players; however I do like Zac Robinson as a replacement QB for this game and their WR/RB depth. I like my eggs over easy, just like this o/u line.

\

I liked this play when I thought Reid would play. I don't know anything about Robinson. Does he have any experience?

[GobbleDog 815]

I attended last week's Troy vs UF game. In the first half, Troy's offense was totally outmatched against Florida's starting defense and the score at half-time was something like 49-7. (part of the problem was Florida didn't give up any turnovers and controlled most of the clock almost the entire first half) However once Florida called off the dogs, Troy's offense caught fire in the second half and their QB looked very impressive racking up 24 points (in addition the 7 points he scored in the first half on a great looking 35 yard run). By the 4th quarter, Florida was forced to send the starting defense back into the game once the score got too close for comfort.

 

I don't know what kind of defense Oklahoma St has, but I think Troy's offense probably got a huge confidence boost out of that game. Now they're back at home against a much less formidable oppenet. Personally, I'll take the 10.5 points. But I'm certainly no Philly the Greek.

[JT 137]

\

I liked this play when I thought Reid would play. I don't know anything about Robinson. Does he have any experience?

 

Robinson has gone from an afterthought two years ago, to a guy that some feel should be the starter over the heralded Reid.

 

Bobby Reid came out of Texas HS touted as the next Vince Young. At the end of last year and leading up to this season, many close to the program thought Gundy was unnecessarily cluttering his QB position, and that Reid would clearly emerge as a star. So far this year, he's shown no appreciable improvement over last. Too many passes thrown at receivers feet, bad mechanics when rolling to his left, huge lapses in concentration and decision making.

 

Robinson is a mobile kid, not nearly as impressive physically as Reid. Very accurate passer with a great command of the offense. The players seem to respond very well to his leadership. He's played extensively as the backup, and played very well. In most cases, the offense hasn't missed a beat. In certain situations, especially true passing downs, he's a much better fit than Reid who has struggled in the pocket. Given a week to take snaps as the #1 guy, I'd expect a strong performance from him. Not the same big play potential as Reid...note the word potential; Reid hasn't delivered much on it so far...but probably a steadier influence on the offense. He played the majority (nearly 3 quarters) of last week's blowout win in Stillwater.

 

I'm not comfortable laying those points, so I'll avoid this game, but there's a bit of history on Robinson.

[DetroitGodfather1 0]

Ok , I am going away for the weekend . And I need One or two good locks b-4 I leave . (No over/unders)

 

Thanks ---- U College Guru's

 

 

I already Like Kentucky , Miami (OH) , W-Mich .

 

 

[Yer mom 2]

Robinson is a mobile kid, not nearly as impressive physically as Reid. Very accurate passer with a great command of the offense. The players seem to respond very well to his leadership. He's played extensively as the backup, and played very well. In most cases, the offense hasn't missed a beat. In certain situations, especially true passing downs, he's a much better fit than Reid who has struggled in the pocket. Given a week to take snaps as the #1 guy, I'd expect a strong performance from him. Not the same big play potential as Reid...note the word potential; Reid hasn't delivered much on it so far...but probably a steadier influence on the offense. He played the majority (nearly 3 quarters) of last week's blowout win in Stillwater.

 

Robinson came in last week and lead Ok State on three straight TD drives, the offense was stalling before, Robinson is an upgrade. I'd like to play the over tonight, but hesitant early because of the conditions:

 

Rain showers this morning with numerous thunderstorms developing during the afternoon hours. Humid. High 86F. Winds S at 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain 80%. Friday night: Showers and scattered thunderstorms. Low 69F. Winds light and variable. Chance of rain 60%.

 

Will wait until later in the afternoon to make an accurate play

 

Good luck!!

[mkuz 0]

LOOK! Breaking story out of Ohio...

 

Columbus, OH (AP) - A seven-year old boy was at the center of a Franklin County courtroom drama yesterday when he challenged a court ruling over who should have custody of him. The boy has a history of being beaten by his parents and the judge initially awarded custody to his aunt, in keeping with child custody law and regulation requiring that family unity be maintained to the highest degree possible.

 

The boy surprised the court when he proclaimed that his aunt beat him more than his parents and he adamantly refused to live with her. When the judge then suggested that he live with his grandparents, the boy cried and said that they also beat him. After considering the remainder of the immediate family and learning that domestic violence was apparently a way of life among them, the judge took the unprecedented step of allowing the boy to propose who should have custody of him.

 

After two recesses to check legal references and confer with the child welfare officials, the judge granted temporary custody to the University of Michigan Wolverines, whom the boy firmly believes are not capable of beating anyone.

 

 

I take Notre Dame and the points.

[needmoremoney 0]

\

I liked this play when I thought Reid would play. I don't know anything about Robinson. Does he have any experience?

 

He's a sophomore with some experience under his belt. He's performed well in his limited opportunities and improved considerably since last year (QB rating of 131.9 this year). Career 6 TD 1 Int record. He's got some mobility as well in the pocket, although I'm not sure if it matters with Troy's porous D.

[jkg31885 0]

Does anyone else like the over tonigt in the Oki st. and Troy game. I realize oki St. is bringing back 7 players on defense, but thats the same defense that allowed over 30 points per game late last year. They are also returning no players from the D-Line as well. On the flip side they are returning 8 players on Offesne including both leading rushers from last year leading qb and three out of 4 leading receivers of an offense that was ranked 16th in offense last season. Troy on the other hand is returning their starting Qb who looked good late last week against Flordia and Oki. St is no flordia. Troy returns a total of 6 starters on Offense leading rusher from a year ago and top 2 wideouts from last years team. The line has moved from 65 down to 61 a lot of people must have been playing the under. Just wondering others views and if u have the money thats on the O/U that would be greatly appreciated.

[dleake8806 0]

Philly, any thoughts on tonights game?