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Wildman

2008 Rookie Scouting Portfolio

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I'm still flipping out about my ranking of McFadden.

 

I think it will depend on if he ends up with the Raiders or the Jets. New era scouting has Mendenhall going to the Lions and Stewart to the Texans. Depending on how his ankles hold up, Stewart and the Texans sounds like a better choice.

 

--louis

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Can I venture an RB guess?

 

Stewart

Mendenhall

Rice

Jones

Forte

McFadden

 

(nevermind, you're gonna make us wait anyway aren't ya you @#$#@% :lol: )

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Can I venture an RB guess?

 

Stewart

Mendenhall

Rice

Jones

Forte

McFadden

 

(nevermind, you're gonna make us wait anyway aren't ya you @#$#@% :dunno: )

 

You guessed the first one and three of them are correct (maybe four--can't remember offhand), but McFadden isn't in my top 5 list.

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You guessed the first one and three of them are correct (maybe four--can't remember offhand), but McFadden isn't in my top 5 list.

 

Well, in my defense, I put McFadden on as the 6th one. Either way, I'm anxiously awaiting the RSP!!!

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Well, in my defense, I put McFadden on as the 6th one. Either way, I'm anxiously awaiting the RSP!!!

 

 

I can't count anymore :thumbsup:

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I can't count anymore :thumbsup:

 

Quit staying up all night watching p0rn, er, uh, gamefilm!!! :overhead:

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So Rice had 360 carries in 2006 and 380 carries in 2007. Even though not NFL carries that is still a lot of millage. I wonder how that will affect his long term durability.

 

--louis

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Workload in the NFL seems to play a greater factor than in college ball. I'm not so concerned about Rice. This is by no means scientific, but here's a few players worth mentioning...

 

Tomlinson had 369 carries in 11 games at TCU as a senior

AD 339 at OU

Michael Turner 338 and 310 at N Illinois

Jackson 319 and 350 and OSU (he didn't have an issue until he broke the 270 f/carry mark last year that we talk about at FFToday...in contrast, Larry Johnson's most carries in college was 271 and he got hurt breaking that 270 f/carry mark in 2006...)

Rudi Johnson had 324 as a senior

Deangelo Williams 313 and 310 at Memphis (we'll see about him although he's been healthy in spot time)

Ricky Williams was durable other than his rookie year and he had a ton of carries and the same goes for Marshall Faulk who had quite a career for a 4-6 year stretch without major injury.

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Workload in the NFL seems to play a greater factor than in college ball. I'm not so concerned about Rice. This is by no means scientific, but here's a few players worth mentioning...

 

Tomlinson had 369 carries in 11 games at TCU as a senior

AD 339 at OU

Michael Turner 338 and 310 at N Illinois

Jackson 319 and 350 and OSU (he didn't have an issue until he broke the 270 f/carry mark last year that we talk about at FFToday...in contrast, Larry Johnson's most carries in college was 271 and he got hurt breaking that 270 f/carry mark in 2006...)

Rudi Johnson had 324 as a senior

Deangelo Williams 313 and 310 at Memphis (we'll see about him although he's been healthy in spot time)

Ricky Williams was durable other than his rookie year and he had a ton of carries and the same goes for Marshall Faulk who had quite a career for a 4-6 year stretch without major injury.

 

Think it is 370 f/carry, which I don't think anyone broke this year. But that is another thread. Now quit goofing off and get back to work, only 13 days left till April 1st. lol.

 

--louis

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I bought the 2007 and just pre-ordered the 2008. I'm really looking forward to reading this year's edition, especially with all the tlaented RBs coming out. How close are we to download? :rolleyes:

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April 1st (no joke) is the tentative download date... :wub:

 

 

Yep, still on schedule :banana:

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I just got back from the grocery store and saw The Sporting News Draft Guide. Since I already have my rankings in place I decided to flip through it. Every year I've been writing the RSP I look at TSN's Draft Guide after I'm through and discover my rankings are significantly different than their skill player rankings, but there were a couple of things that caught my eye that have prompted me to add a section to the RSP.

 

The first is the inaccuracy of the 40 times with these players. As a magazine writer in my day job, I understand that their estimated date their product went to publication had to have been 3-6 weeks ago--and for the size of their publication, likely on the higher end of that estimation so they missed the combine results. It's hard to get on their case about this because even if they did catch the combine there were a significant number of players who didn't participate fully and the NFL hasn't been completely forthcoming with all the stats for all the players.

 

So in the past I had an "adjusted ranking" based on the combine/workout results, but I decided to ditch this due to the lack of stats and the fact I never really believed in the combine as an indicator of anything worthwhile about a football player.

 

Instead I have decided to do player comparisons with the top 15-20 players at each position. For starters it's an entertaining way of summing up a player. And based on what I saw with TSN's comparisons, I felt compelled to give my take because with all due respect to their work, I think their comparisons are highly flawed.

 

For example, they compared the 6-1, 211 Darren McFadden with 6-2 230-lb Steven Jackson. Are you kidding me?

Better yet they compared Kevin Smith to Rudi Johnson (which took my laughter to a bit of anger as I'm standing there at the grocery newsstand) and Matt Forte (who they have running a 4.6 40, which is way too slow for his real speed) to Rueben Droughns.

 

So I'm incorporating a comparison method that will list the player, what I think are his significant strengths, and then a spectrum of players where I would project this player if he reaches what I think will be the ceiling of his potential. The “x” is where I believe the prospect will eventually fall along this spectrum if he fulfills his potential as a pro. The dashes indicate an approximate skill gap between the players in terms of where they fall and a slash indicates these players will likely be the same in skill set.

 

Example: Kevin Smith

 

Best Skills: Change of direction; Vision; Speed

 

Player Comparison

 

Marcus Allen--X---Curt Warner---Cadillac Williams

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I don't know what wackiness resides in TSN this year, because I stopped giving them my money (Pittman ranked second for RBs last year). I don't know if they make much of a litmus test these days - sort of like Wildman = stick, TSN = blind legless squirrel.

 

But any bonus material in the Scouting Portfolio can only be a good thing. :dunno:

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As long as you can get it in there by April 1st :dunno:

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I'm going on vacation. Maybe you can mail my copy to the resort? :shocking:

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If you pay for shipping costs! :thumbsup:

 

Still on schedule for 4/1...things left to do:

 

WR summary section

Team Needs (DJ Nestrick sent a nice section, but I want to add more to it)

Proof it one more time

Convert everything to .PDF

 

Should be done Friday or Saturday so Krueger has time to set up everything up for download.

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I never buy national mags such as TSN for fantasy purposes. However, I do buy them for overall NFL evaluation, I love the breakdowns of every position gorup including the offensive lines, defensive lines, etc. Not for TSN specifically but for mags of that type. I wish all of them would ditch the fantasy angle and just focus on being NFL preview mags, because their fantasy articles and rankings are worthless, IMO.

 

For fantasy, it's RSP and my own scouting, all the way!

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Still on schedule. In fact, I'm done with everything except for piecing the Adobe files together. I should have it sent to Krueger tonight or early tomorrow. I'm excited, this is going to be a fun draft year because I can envision a fair number of good RB and WR prospects getting drafted in rounds 3-5 in the NFL draft who have viable starter talent as they develop.

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Done! :overhead:

 

What's changed from last year...

-122 Players (plus a few scraps of evals on players like Dexter Jackson and Jordy Nelson who I didn't have a full game)

-497 pages (the multitude of RBs and an increase in decent TEs this year bulked up this year's publication)

-Team Needs by D.J. Nestrick

-Historical Player Comparisons

 

Mike should have it ready for download April 1st.

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Done! :ninja:

 

What's changed from last year...

-122 Players (plus a few scraps of evals on players like Dexter Jackson and Jordy Nelson who I didn't have a full game)

-497 pages (the multitude of RBs and an increase in decent TEs this year bulked up this year's publication)

-Team Needs by D.J. Nestrick

-Historical Player Comparisons

 

Mike should have it ready for download April 1st.

I was getting ready to find out if you had a chance to look at Jordy Nelson when you got the Jump on me. Thanks Matt

If this guy plays as well as his Highlight reel shows..Very interesting. I dont trust the youtube video by itself, but in limited veiwing this guy looks a little like a Wes Welker/Dwayne Bowe mix.

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I saw so little of Nelson that I didn't want to score him, but I commented on what I saw. He's a savvy player with some athleticism to his game. I wish I could have seem Jerome Simpson, more of Dexter Jackson, Nelson, but it just didn't happen. I may go the route of two DVRs next year if I do this...

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argh I hate this waiting!

 

So how deep do your overall rankings go, Wild?

 

 

Top 15 QBs

Top 20 RBs

Top 25 WRs

Top 10 TEs

 

Although I could also go 40 deep on RBs and WRs, but I didn't list the ranking after what I have above--but you can use the scores from the checklists of the non-ranked players to get a general idea. If after you look it over you want to see my complete rankings without commentary for the ones after the cutoffs above, I can e-mail them.

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Top 15 QBs

Top 20 RBs

Top 25 WRs

Top 10 TEs

 

Although I could also go 40 deep on RBs and WRs, but I didn't list the ranking after what I have above.

 

Very reasonable position rankings.

But do you do overall rankings and how deep?

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I haven't done an overall yet. I do try to give an idea in my overview of the position if I think they will make an impact, but I've never been into the top-bottom ranking approach. I may have to think about doing that some time. May be something after the draft. I've been thinking about doing a newsletter for RSP subscribers every other week or so. This would be a good subject to feature.

 

Just thinking very fast before I get back to work...(I know it's not what you're looking for here)

 

Top 7 RBs are probably the best players on the board

Top 3 WRs are worth a late first-early second round pick

The Top QB is in that range with the WRs

The Top 3 TEs are probably 2nd-3rd round material

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Any chance you got that Gopher WR in your review MW?

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I seriously thought about it, but the book's already done. :overhead:

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I seriously thought about it, but the book's already done. :overhead:

 

That's too bad. Being in Texas I don't get to see a whole lot of Gopher games...would have liked to see your opinion.

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That's too bad. Being in Texas I don't get to see a whole lot of Gopher games...would have liked to see your opinion.

 

 

Maybe I'll do one as a tribute to our bored cohort during training camp. I have a few games of his.

 

There's a 7 reception for 92-yard performance against Wisconsin...pretty good DBs in that game

I might have his 7 catch, 120-yard, 1-TD game versus Virginia at the end of '05 and that OT game versus Purdue.

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IS IT FREAKIN' READY YET???!!! CAN WE DOWNLOAD IT @ 12:00 A.M TONIGHT???!!! WHY AM I YELLING???!!!

 

 

(sorry, just a bit anxious...i hate it when football hits the offseason)

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LOL!!!! :thumbsdown:

 

Mike will have it ready and I'm sure he'll send an e-mail when it is.

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IS IT FREAKIN' READY YET???!!! CAN WE DOWNLOAD IT @ 12:00 A.M TONIGHT???!!! WHY AM I YELLING???!!!

(sorry, just a bit anxious...i hate it when football hits the offseason)

 

I love the enthusiasm crawfish, but be cool with the shouting. :dunno: I will have the download ready and an email sent to all purchasers before I hit the bed tonight... I went to bed at 2:27AM CST last night.

 

I'm just messin' with ya'... I'll do my best to have it ready at midnight CST. :bandana:

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I love the enthusiasm crawfish, but be cool with the shouting. :blink: I will have the download ready and an email sent to all purchasers before I hit the bed tonight... I went to bed at 2:27AM CST last night.

 

I'm just messin' with ya'... I'll do my best to have it ready at midnight CST. :thumbsdown:

 

No worries Mike, I'm not the most patient person, but I can surely wait. You guys do good work, and it's much appreciated.

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No worries Mike, I'm not the most patient person, but I can surely wait. You guys do good work, and it's much appreciated.

Its like the night before Christmas!!!

 

Wow been a FFtoday member since 2004 and only 27 posts, I'm looking at the numbers next to some of you guys and WOW!!

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