Each year there is at least 2 or 3 huge busts in the 1st 10 picks

[edjr 5,546]

Whether it be injury, lack of production...

 

Each and every year there are 2 or 3 giant busts out of the 1st 10 fantasy picks. Especially if you take into account where they were drafted

 

Last year top 10

 

LaDainian Tomlinson (bust)

Steven Jackson (bust)

Brian Westbrook

Joseph Addai (bust)

Frank Gore,

Adrian Peterson

Tom Brady(HUGE bust)

Randy Moss (bust, see Brady. he was drafted very high in most leagues)

Clinton Portis

Marion Barber (bust)

 

so that's 5, maybe 6 out of 10

 

This year will be no different.

 

Adrian Peterson (safest bet)

Michael Turner (potential bust, too many carries last year)

Maurice Jones-Drew (huge hype, 1st year without Taylor)

Matt Forte (only his 2nd year, huge bust potential)

Steven Jackson (the rams?)

DeAngelo Williams (break out year, lots of bust potential)

Chris Johnson (another sophmore)

LaDainian Tomlinson (over the hill?)

Larry Fitzgerald (if warner goes down, hes a bust)

Frank Gore (49ers offense?)

 

 

 

I really only see a couple of safe bets and noone can predict injuries.

[DexterMorgan 5]

Whether it be injury, lack of production...

 

Each and every year there are 2 or 3 giant busts out of the 1st 10 fantasy picks. Especially if you take into account where they were drafted

 

Last year top 10

 

LaDainian Tomlinson (bust)

Steven Jackson (bust)

Brian Westbrook

Joseph Addai (bust)

Frank Gore,

Adrian Peterson

Tom Brady(HUGE bust)

Randy Moss (bust, see Brady. he was drafted very high in most leagues)

Clinton Portis

Marion Barber (bust)

 

so that's 5, maybe 6 out of 10

 

This year will be no different.

 

Adrian Peterson (safest bet)

Michael Turner (potential bust, too many carries last year)

Maurice Jones-Drew (huge hype, 1st year without Taylor)

Matt Forte (only his 2nd year, huge bust potential)

Steven Jackson (the rams?)

DeAngelo Williams (break out year, lots of bust potential)

Chris Johnson (another sophmore)

LaDainian Tomlinson (over the hill?)

Larry Fitzgerald (if warner goes down, hes a bust)

Frank Gore (49ers offense?)

I really only see a couple of safe bets and noone can predict injuries.

 

Everyone has question marks. I actually think AP has quite a few question marks as well.

 

I also wouldn't call Tomlinson a bust with (off the top of my head) 1500 yards and 12 tds. Maybe not up to the #1 pick but not a bust.

[mdm_1971 0]

moss had a down year because he lost Brady in the 1st week any wr would see a decline......LT all though not worthy of #1 pick was still solid just was not consistant........steven jackson again injured so not worth the place where he was picked ( i was suckered last year and took him 9th ) but he came back in time for my championship run so i didnt care he missed a few games....... so all this being said there is risk with every pick and it is mostly luck good luck

[do rag 0]

I think if you look close enough, anyone has the potential to be a bust...the top WRs I believe have the least potential bust possibilities

[parrot 789]

Peterson had only 13 fewer carries than Turner, and actually had more touches when receptions are thrown in.

[surferskin 30]

My guess is Forte for where he's getting picked.

[Butcher 0]

I have a bad feeling about Chris Johnson and Steven Jackson. I have no logical reason or substantial data to back this feeling up, but I'm avoiding these guys.

[WhiteWonder 2,170]

Whether it be injury, lack of production...

 

Each and every year there are 2 or 3 giant busts out of the 1st 10 fantasy picks. Especially if you take into account where they were drafted

 

Last year top 10

 

LaDainian Tomlinson (bust)

Steven Jackson (bust)

Brian Westbrook

Joseph Addai (bust)

Frank Gore,

Adrian Peterson

Tom Brady(HUGE bust)

Randy Moss (bust, see Brady. he was drafted very high in most leagues)

Clinton Portis

Marion Barber (bust)

 

so that's 5, maybe 6 out of 10

 

This year will be no different.

 

Adrian Peterson (safest bet)

Michael Turner (potential bust, too many carries last year)

Maurice Jones-Drew (huge hype, 1st year without Taylor)

Matt Forte (only his 2nd year, huge bust potential)

Steven Jackson (the rams?)

DeAngelo Williams (break out year, lots of bust potential)

Chris Johnson (another sophmore)

LaDainian Tomlinson (over the hill?)

Larry Fitzgerald (if warner goes down, hes a bust)

Frank Gore (49ers offense?)

I really only see a couple of safe bets and noone can predict injuries.

 

Id take the bust labels off Tomlinson, Moss and possibly Barber. While each may not have lived up to their exact draft spot, they all played fairly well.

 

Tomlinson was still a top 5 PPR back with 1500 yards and 12 TD's. Randy Moss still had 1000 yards and 11 scores. I could maybe see the case for Barber as he missed some games and was non existant in others but he still had 1300 total yards and 9 scores with 52 receptions tossed in.

 

moss had a down year because he lost Brady in the 1st week any wr would see a decline......LT all though not worthy of #1 pick was still solid just was not consistant.....

 

actually, the funny thing about LT last year is that he was VERY consistant. Just not spectacular. Im not sure how it works out in non PPR leagues, but with PPR scoring he only had 1 game all year where he failed to score double digit fantasy points. But he only had 4 games of greater than 20 fantasy points and one of them was week 17.

[BirdBradyBobbyOrr 0]

Whether it be injury, lack of production... Each and every year there are 2 or 3 giant busts out of the 1st 10 fantasy picks. Especially if you take into account where they were drafted

 

 

************************

 

Ed. I STRONGLY agree with what you say and I think it is one of the most critical and overlooked aspects of the draft. I can't believe more people don't recognize the huge failures we see year in and year out from the 1st round.

 

It is important to distinguish between injury busts and performance busts. There really isn't anyway to predict a NEW injury while there are times you can see the performance bust coming. So unless a player was previously injured I don't worry about injuries and I just try to handcuff my early round draft picks.

 

I also would say that the issue of 1st round busts is RB specific, because there aren't enough QBs and WRs drafted in the 1st round to set a pattern of busts at those positions. I also think the RBs drafted draft to draft tend to be a little more static while the position, QB or WR, and identity of those 2 remaining 1st rd picks varies greatly from draft to draft.

 

For years now most 1st rounds we usually see 7-8 RBs and 2-3 QB/WR drafted. More often than not it's 8 RBs and 2 QB/WR. This year for instance in many drafts Brees will go in the 1st round, others Brady, some Peyton, but not many will see Brady, Brees and Peyton go in the 1st round. Fitzergald might go 1st round this year, but I could also see Moss or Wayne going 1st round. I certainly don't see Brees, Fitzgerald and Moss or Brees, Brady, Moss going in the 1st round very often. So my point being the 1st round is dominated RBs and hence the issue is 1st rd RB busts not 1st rd WR/QB busts. In fact I'd say half of the RBs drafted in the 1st rd each year are busts.

 

Which is why if I don't get an early pick and I can't get an RB I covet early I'll usually pull the trigger on the best QB available. I will say with the recent explosion of RBBC I would draft an elite WR this as well. I figure why not, I've done my research I know which of these QB/WR have the highest potential and least risk and half of these RBs remaining are not going to live up to their draft status.

 

I'd like to see a detailed report on how many players at each position were busts over the last few years. Maybe base it on first 10 rounds or so. It would have to show injury busts, and establish a baseline to determine what a bust is. Someone could use percentage of projections achieved; x out of 16 games played;etc etc. I wonder what bust patterns, injury or performance, we would see.

 

Either way, maybe I'm off, I'd love some feedback, but I am sure that Ed Jr. is touching on a very important issue within the fantasy draft.

[porkbutt 860]

that's why i pick my 2nd rounders in the 1st

[BMoney 0]

whens the last time that a safest bet #1, dont think twice about him pick paid off?....

 

i mean, LTs stats were fine..but you couldve picked that up in the 3rd round....

 

LT

alexander...

 

it seems like when a guy becomes the safest pick..he isnt...

[dirtywhiteboy01 0]

For this reason, I think it makes sense to trade ur 1st round pick for more 2nd and middle round picks

[FlaHawker 24]

Whether it be injury, lack of production...

 

Each and every year there are 2 or 3 giant busts out of the 1st 10 fantasy picks. Especially if you take into account where they were drafted

 

Last year top 10

 

LaDainian Tomlinson (bust)

Steven Jackson (bust)

Brian Westbrook

Joseph Addai (bust)

Frank Gore,

Adrian Peterson

Tom Brady(HUGE bust)

Randy Moss (bust, see Brady. he was drafted very high in most leagues)

Clinton Portis

Marion Barber (bust)

 

so that's 5, maybe 6 out of 10

 

This year will be no different.

 

Adrian Peterson (safest bet)

Michael Turner (potential bust, too many carries last year)

Maurice Jones-Drew (huge hype, 1st year without Taylor)

Matt Forte (only his 2nd year, huge bust potential)

Steven Jackson (the rams?)

DeAngelo Williams (break out year, lots of bust potential)

Chris Johnson (another sophmore)

LaDainian Tomlinson (over the hill?)

Larry Fitzgerald (if warner goes down, hes a bust)

Frank Gore (49ers offense?)

I really only see a couple of safe bets and noone can predict injuries.

Thanks Capt Obvious. Don't fall asleep, we'll never get there.

[Joey Gladstone 33]

Off the list you gave I'd say SJax, Turner and DeAngelo have the highest bust potential.

[De Novo 0]

I have Jacobs ranked over Michael Turner, which is just one example of how unpredictable this year is. I think no fewer than 5 of the top 10 picks will be busts. At the top of my list are Turner, Forte, Chris Johnson, Gore, DeAngelo. But it could be anybody.

[hov 1]

Whether it be injury, lack of production...

 

Each and every year there are 2 or 3 giant busts out of the 1st 10 fantasy picks. Especially if you take into account where they were drafted

 

Last year top 10

 

LaDainian Tomlinson (bust)

Steven Jackson (bust)

Brian Westbrook

Joseph Addai (bust)

Frank Gore,

Adrian Peterson

Tom Brady(HUGE bust)

Randy Moss (bust, see Brady. he was drafted very high in most leagues)

Clinton Portis

Marion Barber (bust)

 

so that's 5, maybe 6 out of 10

 

 

This is a huge reason why I'm another one considering going WR/WR this year in the late pick especially in PPR. It seems that WR studs are much less prone to injury and RBs are becoming more of a crap shoot every year.

 

I think the RB/RB strategy is just not as clear cut as it was 5-6 years ago.

[studlyLT 0]

biggest bust, MJD

 

also Turner who plays the hardest run defense schedule.

D. Willaims will be hurt.

SJAX who is on a terrible team.

 

best players.

 

AP

LT

Gore

Forte

[Menace 0]

Got a feeling that Chris Johnson will be a bust this year. I also think the Ariz WR's could be somewhat of a bust if Warner goes down.

[WhiteWonder 2,170]

I have Jacobs ranked over Michael Turner, which is just one example of how unpredictable this year is. I think no fewer than 5 of the top 10 picks will be busts. At the top of my list are Turner, Forte, Chris Johnson, Gore, DeAngelo. But it could be anybody.

 

How is the fact that you have Jacobs personally ranked ahaed of Turner an example of how unpredictable this year is? Isn't it more an example of how unpredictable you are?

[De Novo 0]

How is the fact that you have Jacobs personally ranked ahaed of Turner an example of how unpredictable this year is? Isn't it more an example of how unpredictable you are?

 

No, it's not. Thanks for adding value to the bored, though.

[WhiteWonder 2,170]

No, it's not. Thanks for adding value to the bored, though.

 

[mdm_1971 0]

Id take the bust labels off Tomlinson, Moss and possibly Barber. While each may not have lived up to their exact draft spot, they all played fairly well.

 

Tomlinson was still a top 5 PPR back with 1500 yards and 12 TD's. Randy Moss still had 1000 yards and 11 scores. I could maybe see the case for Barber as he missed some games and was non existant in others but he still had 1300 total yards and 9 scores with 52 receptions tossed in.

actually, the funny thing about LT last year is that he was VERY consistant. Just not spectacular. Im not sure how it works out in non PPR leagues, but with PPR scoring he only had 1 game all year where he failed to score double digit fantasy points. But he only had 4 games of greater than 20 fantasy points and one of them was week 17.

Tomlinson consistant huh? my league is ppr ....no so consistant....yes double digiy but not consistant

21 caries 97 yards 3 rec 15 yrds no tds--------carolina ( my league 13 pts )

10 carries 26 yards 2 rec 14 yards no tds --------against denver my league ( 5 pts )

26 caries 67 yrds 3 rec 20 yrds 2 tds -------- jets my league ( 23 pts )

20 caries 106 yrds 2 rec 9 yrds 2 tds------- raiders fumble ( 22 pts )

12 carries 35 yrds 5 rec 22 yrds no tds--------- miami (10 pts )

20 caries 74 yrds 3 rec 44 yrds no tds -------- new england ( 14 pts )

14 carries 41 yrds 6 rec 26 yrds no tds --------- bills ( 12 pts )

not consistant but solid #s just not what you expect from the #1 or #2 overall pick

[WhiteWonder 2,170]

Tomlinson consistant huh? my league is ppr ....no so consistant....yes double digiy but not consistant

21 caries 97 yards 3 rec 15 yrds no tds--------carolina ( my league 13 pts )

10 carries 26 yards 2 rec 14 yards no tds --------against denver my league ( 5 pts )

26 caries 67 yrds 3 rec 20 yrds 2 tds -------- jets my league ( 23 pts )

20 caries 106 yrds 2 rec 9 yrds 2 tds------- raiders fumble ( 22 pts )

12 carries 35 yrds 5 rec 22 yrds no tds--------- miami (10 pts )

20 caries 74 yrds 3 rec 44 yrds no tds -------- new england ( 14 pts )

14 carries 41 yrds 6 rec 26 yrds no tds --------- bills ( 12 pts )

not consistant but solid #s just not what you expect from the #1 or #2 overall pick

 

All you want from a 1st round pick is 1st round numbers and Tomlinson gave you just that. If you have the 1st or 2nd overall pick and expect to get the top producer in the league, you will often be disappointed.

 

Also, ty for posting the stat lines. Like I said, 1 game of less than double digits. And if you bother to include all the rest of the games, he scores between 10-20 points in 12 weeks. I consider that consistant but not spectacular.

 

Would you prefer more 20+ games but more 5 point games? thats not consistancy.

[South Beach 0]

I have a bad feeling about Chris Johnson and Steven Jackson. I have no logical reason or substantial data to back this feeling up, but I'm avoiding these guys.

 

 

what he said

 

add portis in the second/third turn as well.... huge canes fan but i think he falls out of good fantasy graces this year.

[tcufletch 0]

This is a huge reason why I'm another one considering going WR/WR this year in the late pick especially in PPR. It seems that WR studs are much less prone to injury and RBs are becoming more of a crap shoot every year.

 

I think the RB/RB strategy is just not as clear cut as it was 5-6 years ago.

 

 

Completely agree with this...seems like much more parity at the RB level just b/c of the injury potential and the relative "unknown" due to the young age of what we're calling the "elite" RBs.

[idlewild 6]

I have a bad feeling about Chris Johnson and Steven Jackson. I have no logical reason or substantial data to back this feeling up, but I'm avoiding these guys.

 

Makes sense...

 

[JohnnysJuggernauts 0]

I am going WR/WR with the 10th pick in a 12 teamer. For the same reason you are talking about. Great Topic by the way.

[Melissa Stark 1]

With the offensive line issues with the Iggles, I can see some potential busts from the likes of Westy and McNabb.

[edjr 5,546]

that's why i pick my 2nd rounders in the 1st

 

I traded my 1st and 7th round picks last year for someone elses 2nd and 3rd, I made the semi-finals of a 14 teamer and lost by less than 15 points.

 

This year I got #1 overall and I swapped entire drafts with the guy that had 12 (12 teamer) and he gave me his 5th rounder for the swap

 

Sure, every pick is a risk, but i'd rather have more picks than risk a pick with the #1 overall and not pick again till the 20's

[edjr 5,546]

whens the last time that a safest bet #1, dont think twice about him pick paid off?....

 

i mean, LTs stats were fine..but you couldve picked that up in the 3rd round....

 

LT

alexander...

 

it seems like when a guy becomes the safest pick..he isnt...

 

I drafted Faulk #1 overall after his best year... he got hurt.

the year before someone else drafted Warner #1 overall.... he got hurt

Brady was picked in the top 3 in almost every draft last year... he got hurt

Priest holmes was taken #1 overall one year... he got hurt.

 

 

I personally have the worst feeling about MJD this year. The hype is insane.

[DrGonzo 1]

I traded my 1st and 7th round picks last year for someone elses 2nd and 3rd, I made the semi-finals of a 14 teamer and lost by less than 15 points.

 

This year I got #1 overall and I swapped entire drafts with the guy that had 12 (12 teamer) and he gave me his 5th rounder for the swap

 

Sure, every pick is a risk, but i'd rather have more picks than risk a pick with the #1 overall and not pick again till the 20's

 

i would do that too but u shoulod have asked for a 4th rounder

[edjr 5,546]

i would do that too but u shoulod have asked for a 4th rounder

 

I asked for a 3rd rounder, ended up getting his 5th.

 

in a 12 teamer it's a pretty decent pick.

[KSB2424 3,082]

Michael Turner had what? 360 carries last year. History suggests he has alot of BUST potential.

 

He would get my prediction vote out of those guys.

[WhiteWonder 2,170]

Michael Turner had what? 360 carries last year. History suggests he has alot of BUST potential.

 

He would get my prediction vote out of those guys.

 

im gonna say Turner will be ok this year.

 

Im too lazy atm to do the research but I think the 370 carry backs who faltered the following year all had much, much higher career workloads than Turner.

[edjr 5,546]

Michael Turner had what? 360 carries last year. History suggests he has alot of BUST potential.

 

He would get my prediction vote out of those guys.

 

Not to mention a 2nd year QB that played over his head last year.

 

The Falcons will come back down to earth this year.

[BirdBradyBobbyOrr 0]

Not to mention a 2nd year QB that played over his head last year.

 

I don't think you've watched that much Matt Ryan if you think he played over his head. Last year he looked exactly like he did in College. There were no real speedbumps, he stayed pretty consistent. He had one of the smoothest looking transitions to the NFL that I've seen in a long long time. Show me a rookie QB that's looked as good as him lately?

 

Matt Ryan did what he did last year while having to play in the shadow of Mike Vick. There was so much pressure for him to perform last year and now that pressure is gone. Furthermore they just got him the greatest TE in NFL history to lead the offense so he now has an insane check down option and Roddy White will get more single coverage on the outside.

 

I see Matt Ryan improving this year to at least 25 TD's and 3800 yards. I do not see him coming down to earth. I don't see one sign that points to Matt Ryan having a regression this year. Not a single one.

[plasma george 52]

I don't think you've watched that much Matt Ryan if you think he played over his head. Last year he looked exactly like he did in College. There were no real speedbumps, he stayed pretty consistent. He had one of the smoothest looking transitions to the NFL that I've seen in a long long time. Show me a rookie QB that's looked as good as him lately?

Flacco would've been Rookie of the Year if the Voting took place AFTER the SuperBowl. It should be called Regular Season Rookie of the Year, Ryan folded in the Playoffs, Flacco was in the AFC Championship game.

 

And if you question who is better, watch this year for confirmation.....the last I checked Flacco still has no stud RBs or WRs.

[edjr 5,546]

I don't think you've watched that much Matt Ryan if you think he played over his head. Last year he looked exactly like he did in College. There were no real speedbumps, he stayed pretty consistent. He had one of the smoothest looking transitions to the NFL that I've seen in a long long time. Show me a rookie QB that's looked as good as him lately?

 

Matt Ryan did what he did last year while having to play in the shadow of Mike Vick. There was so much pressure for him to perform last year and now that pressure is gone. Furthermore they just got him the greatest TE in NFL history to lead the offense so he now has an insane check down option and Roddy White will get more single coverage on the outside.

 

I see Matt Ryan improving this year to at least 25 TD's and 3800 yards. I do not see him coming down to earth. I don't see one sign that points to Matt Ryan having a regression this year. Not a single one.

 

Yeah, how did BC do in every big game they had with Ryan at QB?

 

uh huh.. gagged

[mobb_deep 917]

I also have a bad feeling about Chris Johnson and Steve Slaton. No other logical reason, other than lack of GL carries and size concerns (durability). Even worse, I have Chris Johnson in my Dynasty and Keeper league. Absolutely love the kid, even though I think he'll disappoint at where he's being drafted.

[BirdBradyBobbyOrr 0]

Yeah, how did BC do in every big game they had with Ryan at QB?

 

uh huh.. gagged

 

Ed Jr. What are you talking about? If that's what you bring to the table than I'll start ignoring your posts. I ask you to show me why Matt Ryan is going to slump and for you to explain to me how he played over his head and you tell me he sucked in College?

 

That is crazy talk

 

 

2005 season through 2007, he was Boston College's starter, with 3 Bowl victories and a 25-7 record in 32 starts.

 

2005 he won the MPC Computers Bowl versus Boise State. He completed 19 of 36 passes for 256 yards and a career-best three touchdowns.

 

2006 He played a chunk of the season with a sprained ankle and a BROKEN FOOT! and still performed. Leading BC to a win in the Meineke Car Care Bowl against Navy in Charlotte, North Carolina.

 

2007 He won his 3rd straight Bowl game extending the nation's longest bowl winning streak to eight with a 24-21 victory over Michigan State Spartans in the Champs Sports Bowl.

 

 

Did he lose a few big games? Sure there were a few times over those seasons when BC was poised to play in BCS game and he didn't get us there. But let's look at the talent around him during those years and the overall body of work. Even last year he didn't win the playoff game I'll give you that.

 

But how do a few losses and a playoff loss translate to fantasy? I don't see the correlation.

 

PLASMA GEORGE - I agree Flacco got better as the season progressed and although I am a big fan of BC and Matt Ryan I give Flacco much props. He might be one of the only rookies I've seen look as poised as Matt Ryan. Matt Ryan did throw for 600 yards more than Flacco. That's 60 fantasy points and Flacco only had 80 more yards rushing so that doesn't even come close to making up for it.

 

As talented as Flacco is I am very confident in saying that Matt Ryan will have a substantially better Fantasy season. Flacco may get his wins, I tend to think they will both be very good winning teams, but Ryan will have more TD's, a better TD to INT ration, more yards and won't be that far off in rushing yards since Flacco.