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kroyrunner89

***Official Week 2 Wagering Thread***

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Here's an early look at the lines this week, I'll edit and update them Thursday or Friday.

 

 

Week 2 Lines:

Raiders +3 @ Chiefs 38

Texans +6.5 @ Titans 41

Patriots -3.5 @ Jets 45.5

Bengals +9 @ Packers 42

Vikings -10 @ Lions 45

Saints -1 @ Eagles 46

Panthers +6 @ Falcons 42.5

Rams +10 @ Redskins 36.5

Cardinals +3 @ Jaguars 42

Seahawks +1.5 @ 49ers 39.5

Bucs +4.5 @ Bills 42

Browns +3 @ Broncos 38.5

Ravens +3 @ Chargers 40

Steelers -3 @ Bears 37.5

Giants +3 @ Cowboys 44.5

Colts -3 @ Dolphins 42

 

Good luck this week everyone!

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Be careful with road favorites in the NFL. Although I do think Pittsburgh will find a way to win in Chicago. Panthers aren't as bad as they looked this past week. Eagles also have a more aggressive, attacking defense than the Falcons. Falcons should win, but it could be a close game. Division games are always tough. Seen Eagles and Saints game mostly listed as a PK Em. Under 47 is the play if Kevin Kolb gets the start.

 

At first glance I like:

 

Houston +7- Houston offensive not as bad as it looked against Jets.

Jets +4- I really like this Jets team, and at home.

Jax -3- I'm not a big fan of the Cardinals or Kurt Warner this year.

GB -9- GB is simply the much better team. Cincy looked woeful versus Denver

Detroit +10- I think Detroit can score some points and hang with Minnesota here. An outright win wouldn't shock me.

NYG +3- This line suprised me. Are they saying that this would be a PK Em at a neutral site? NYG better up front on both sides of ball.

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The thread starter should probably edit his post, specifically the title, in the opening post to include some asterisks before and after "Official" and "Thread", so we won't have multiple threads this week on the same topic. which is what happened last week.

 

***Official Week 2 NFL Wagering Thread***

 

It's more eye catching and less likely to be overlooked. For what it's worth.

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The thread starter should probably edit his post, specifically the title, in the opening post to include some asterisks before and after "Official" and "Thread", so we won't have multiple threads this week on the same topic. which is what happened last week.

 

***Official Week 2 NFL Wagering Thread***

 

It's more eye catching and less likely to be overlooked. For what it's worth.

Sounds like a plan! Thanks lol

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Pitt - 3 ??

 

Pit could pass or run all over the place with a solid D. I like seeing this as a Bears fan....Vegas baiting Pitt backers in for a Bears SU win :thumbsup:

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i like Seattle actually getting pts?

Pitt -3

Indy -3

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Be careful with road favorites in the NFL. Although I do think Pittsburgh will find a way to win in Chicago. Panthers aren't as bad as they looked this past week. Eagles also have a more aggressive, attacking defense than the Falcons. Falcons should win, but it could be a close game. Division games are always tough. Seen Eagles and Saints game mostly listed as a PK Em. Under 47 is the play if Kevin Kolb gets the start.

 

At first glance I like:

 

Houston +7- Houston offensive not as bad as it looked against Jets.

Jets +4- I really like this Jets team, and at home.

Jax -3- I'm not a big fan of the Cardinals or Kurt Warner this year.

GB -9- GB is simply the much better team. Cincy looked woeful versus Denver

Detroit +10- I think Detroit can score some points and hang with Minnesota here. An outright win wouldn't shock me.

NYG +3- This line suprised me. Are they saying that this would be a PK Em at a neutral site? NYG better up front on both sides of ball.

 

It's nice to see some ideas rolling around early in the week. It helps with how much strength of position I have on each event. I agree with your Houston +7, Jets +4, Jax -3 picks. However, Carson Palmer is little less rusty this week, and hopefully the receiving corps doesn't drop as many passes. I think the Cincy +9 is the way to go here. This would be a nice game to pick the over possibly if the number is about 42.5 or so. I got totally burned in my nonposted parlay last week when I took Detroit plus the points on a weak New Orleans defense. I just didn't perceive how well the Saints offense could work to overshadow their defensive flaws. So, I think the Vikings dominate this game. The Vikings have yet to unleash the Farve attack. They won't need it here. I can't see Detroit's defense stopping Adrian/Chester at all. Vikings -10 seems like the pick to me. And the Giants line does not surprise me at all. Dallas showed they have a good offense in week one, and that was in question with Owens gone. Romo successfully answered the bell. This is played in Dallas, where I'm thinking the Dallas defense will perform better than last week. Remember, though Dallas statistically was a medicre defense last year, they led the NFL in sacks with about 57. I don't think the Giants defense will be strong enough in this road test. Obviously you must really like the Giants defense to be surprised by this line. I think the play is Dallas -3.

 

Good luck

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Sounds like a plan! Thanks lol
Thanks, it does help. Also, just to tagteam on what PhillyBear was saying, the abbreviation "NFL", somewhere in your title might help too. It will help differentiate the college thread from the NFL.

 

I know if we can keep the gambling threads to a minimum, the moderators won't delete them. But if there are a "million" threads on gambling they've deleted all of them in the past.

 

But thanks for starting the thread early to kickstart any ideas for week 2.

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It's nice to see some ideas rolling around early in the week. It helps with how much strength of position I have on each event. I agree with your Houston +7, Jets +4, Jax -3 picks. However, Carson Palmer is little less rusty this week, and hopefully the receiving corps doesn't drop as many passes. I think the Cincy +9 is the way to go here. This would be a nice game to pick the over possibly if the number is about 42.5 or so. I got totally burned in my nonposted parlay last week when I took Detroit plus the points on a weak New Orleans defense. I just didn't perceive how well the Saints offense could work to overshadow their defensive flaws. So, I think the Vikings dominate this game. The Vikings have yet to unleash the Farve attack. They won't need it here. I can't see Detroit's defense stopping Adrian/Chester at all. Vikings -10 seems like the pick to me. And the Giants line does not surprise me at all. Dallas showed they have a good offense in week one, and that was in question with Owens gone. Romo successfully answered the bell. This is played in Dallas, where I'm thinking the Dallas defense will perform better than last week. Remember, though Dallas statistically was a medicre defense last year, they led the NFL in sacks with about 57. I don't think the Giants defense will be strong enough in this road test. Obviously you must really like the Giants defense to be surprised by this line. I think the play is Dallas -3.

 

Good luck

 

 

Thanks for the response.

 

Thoughts:

 

-I actually do think Cincy will be better this year. I also liked what I saw in Week 1 out of OchoCinco. He looks like the old Chad. I may lay off this game as I could see GB winning by a touchdown or even being up 13-14 late and getting backdoored late to win by a touchdown.

 

-The Detroit game, it is tough to back a team that hasn't won a game since the 2007 season, BUT they only lost to the Vikings by 2 points in Minnesota and 4 points in Detroit last year. I'm not a Brett Favre believer. I don't think he is even a huge upgrade over what they had. Peterson/Taylor should both have nice days. But if they let Favre throw then the turnovers can come in to play. I don't love Detroit by any means but I think they can keep this game close. Kevin Smith and Calvin Johnson are two nice offensive weapons and can get some points on the board.

 

- I'm not a Cowboys believer yet after one game against the Bucs. If you pressure Tony Romo, you can force mistakes. Just like the Eagles did in their 44-6 thrashing of the Cowboys last year. Well the Giants have probably the best defensive line in football. I just think it will be a grind it out type game, in which case I like both the Giants offensive and defensive lines better. Now it is Dallas' first home game in the new stadium so the place will be rocking. I'm simply taking the better team in my opinion. But I may just lay off this one cause it really could go either way. I just liked getting the 3 points. I'll look closer as the week goes on.

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I've got the Packers -2.5 to close out a 7pt teaser started Monday night (paired w/ Chargers -3).

 

Only game I like right now is Colts -3

 

Considering...

 

Falcons -6

Pats -3.5 (might play if line moves to -3 or less)

Saints ML

Raiders ML

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I'm liking Jets and Bills as +5 and +4 home dogs

 

Buffalo +5 at home against tampa ...right lol

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2-2 last week playing the big dogs.

 

Here are some more trends I am considering:

 

Teams that won by 22+ week 1 are 21-12-3 ATS in week 2, take Philly

Teams that lost by 22+ week 1 are 11-24-1 ATS in week 2, go against Carolina

 

Teams that lost by 10+ and are at home week 2 are 26-41-3 ATS, go against Mia, KC, Det

 

Teams that allow 36+ pts in week 1 are 13-25 ATS n week 2, go against KC, Car, Det

Teams that allow 0-7 pts in week 1 are 34-20-3 ATS in week 2, bet on Atl, Den, NYJ, Sea

**Teams that allow less than 7 playing a team that allowed more than 36 are 5-1 ATS in week 2, take Atl

 

So, with that data, official plays are:

 

Atlanta -6 for 3 units

Philly pick

Minn -10

Oak +3

NYJ +3.5

 

Good luck, have a profitable week!

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The Pats game this week definitely is looking like the biggest trap, yet I'm having a hard time walking away from it. Does Brady's much improved second half numbers from Week 1 indicate that he's back, or did Buffalo's D just wear down? Also, how much can we read into the Jets' Week 1 dismantling of the Texans? I'm also curious to see if the Patriots will be able to stop the versatile running attack of Jones and Washington. This one is a head scratcher...

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At the moment I'm thinking Philly PK as my first play, I'd wait on it a little bit though to see if the line moves in our favor anymore.

 

 

Im a huge Eagles fan. Just be careful with this one. I'd love to see them win but if Kevin Kolb is the QB, I just don't like their chances. The kid isn't ready for this and has shown no signs of being a future NFL starting QB. I'd probably lean towards the Under if Kolb is the starter.

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Im a huge Eagles fan. Just be careful with this one. I'd love to see them win but if Kevin Kolb is the QB, I just don't like their chances. The kid isn't ready for this and has shown no signs of being a future NFL starting QB. I'd probably lean towards the Under if Kolb is the starter.

If Kolb is at QB they won't be able to open up the offense like they would with Mcnabb, but I think he'll be able to manage the game and do what they ask of him. You're right, I expect Philly to win this game with their defense, and then try to grind as much clock as they can on their drives. Could be a 20-17 type game we're looking at here.

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3 Dogs to keep an eye on this week.

I'd go straight up on these 3 games.

 

OAK +130 @ KC

(KC is just not a good team this year, I would be very surprised to see them win more than 2 games all year)

 

AZ +145 @ JAX

(AZ flopped last week. Was that a trend or a mirage? I'd say they are better than last week, but not as good as last years playoff run)

 

CLE +170 @ DEN

(CLE is much better than their tromping by MIN last week & DEN was given a last second gift last week. They won't get it again this week)

 

I have not laid my wagers for this week YET, but the above are my Dogs to WIN.

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NFL in wv so dont have my stats but now good

 

Minn -10 Winner

Cin +9 Winner

Miami +3

NY Jets +3.5 Winner

Chi +3 Winner

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NFL in wv so dont have my stats but now good

 

Minn -10

Cin +9

Miami +3

NY Jets +3.5

Chi +3

 

Hard to disagree with any of these although Kroyrunner does bring up the point that Detroit lost by a combined 6 points in the 2 games played against Minnesota last year. I don't know why they played Minnesota to such close scores last year.

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Week 1 sure treated us well, with my posted plays going a stunning 6-0 ATS. It's safe to say I had the right read on all of those games, with the sole exception maybe being the lucky cover by the Packers. I thought they could win a little more comfortably than that, but in the end a win is a win. The lucky breaks will even out along the way, I'm sure my followers from last year can remember a couple brutal beats we took (Losing an over because of a botched extra point is still the most painful).

 

As much as I'd like to dwell on my Week 1 performance though, it's time to move on to Week 2 and get the job done again. This week is a much tougher set of lines, yet I've managed to come up with a few plays that I feel pretty good about. I actually think Vegas doesn't mind the weak lines in Week 1, because they know that the public will go heavier the next week when things get crazier. Less than 10% of sports bettors can manage to turn a profit in the long run, and there's a reason for that. The public did great in Week 1, and a lot of people will find that they aren't that lucky this week. So, as usual, I recommend good money management with your bets, my 6-0 Week 1 does not indicate that I'll have a winning Week 2 as well. Remember that right now these games are just my humble opinion and I do not yet have my system running to help me out, so there is no guarantee I can perform well again this week. Every week I can only guarantee that I'll do everything in my power to pick some winners, with that being said here's what I've got this week:

 

* Philadelphia Eagles PK

 

The first play I'm liking this week is Eagles PK. The general public perception right now is that no Mcnabb = No win for the Eagles, plus that Drew Brees has entered beast mode and will throw big points on the board as usual. With no Mcnabb, how could the Eagles possibly keep up? Well, there are a few skeletons in the Saints' closet that I'm not willing to ignore, making Philly the clear pick for me. For one, the Saints were just a 2-6 road team last year. Their two wins? Against the 2-14 Chiefs and the 0-16 Lions. A big reason for this was a fall in Brees' numbers when he played on the road. Although his yardage was fairly similar to when he played at home, he threw 11 tds to 10 ints (8 tds to 9 ints ignoring the KC and DET games). Compared to his 23 tds to 5 ints at home, not so great.

 

One game I remember getting burned on last year was betting on the Saints in Week 2. They had just stomped a solid Tampa Bay defense at home, and went on the road to play the Redskins who had struggled mightily on offense in Week 1. The Saints were only 3 point favorites, and everyone and their mother seemed to love them to cover and win handily. After 4 quarters of football, the Saints found themselves losers 29-25. After an average to below average defensive performance against Detroit (I'm not holding the returned fumble for a td against them), I've seen nothing to indicate that this defensive unit is greatly improved. Kolb has been in this league for a while and should be ready to play, not to mention the outside chance Mcnabb plays still.

 

Maybe the Saints have really turned over a new leaf this year, but until I see something to prove it I have to go against them in this spot. The Eagles are one of the favorites in the NFC with or without Mcnabb, and you can bet that their defense will do it's job and apply the pressure to Brees, forcing some mistakes. It'll probably be a close one, but in the end I see the Eagles coming out on top.

 

* Baltimore +3

 

I know it's early in the season and I haven't seen a ton out of the Ravens yet, but I'm pretty certain that this team is the real deal. They were quite impressive in the preseason, and although he only played the Chiefs, Flacco seems to have taken a step forward from where he was last year. The Ravens were a quality team on the road last year, making a nice playoff run beating the Dolphins and Titans on the road, so you know they do not get phased by opposing crowds. I'm also not a believer in this Chargers team, it seems like they get hyped up every year only to finish with a mediocre season. I found myself constantly amazed Monday night at how dominant Oakland seemed over them, they really stole a win in that one.

 

Although any team can have a bad week at any time, I don't have any reason to believe that last week was just a bad week for San Diego. They are a team with a history of underachieving, and they find themselves without several key starters this coming Sunday. I expect an improvement in the Raven's defense as they come out looking to prove that they're a force to be reckoned with in the AFC, and I really can't see the Chargers having that special of a game. Although the public's money is on the Ravens, I don't mind that and I think this is a great spot to bet them. All in all, I don't see how the Chargers offense will be able to keep the chains moving, or how their defense will be able to slow down the Ravens' attack. So, Ravens +3 should come through, with a good chance that they take this one outright.

 

* Atlanta Falcons -6

 

This line almost seems suspicious, yet I cannot ignore the value. We all remember the 12-4 Panthers of last year, a powerful team among the NFC favorites that wound up flopping. Maybe that's why this line is so low, because people expect that these are the Panthers that show up on Sunday. Well, even if the Panthers come ready to play at the level they did last year, I expect it still won't be enough for them to cover this spread.

 

The 2008 Panthers struggled to win on the road, posting a 4-4 mark. Of those 4 wins, not a single team was over .500! When they were on the road they scored a td less per game, while allowing an additional 5 ppg to be scored on them. But this only tells part of the story. If you remove those cupcake teams they played against, their story becomes much more dismal. You're now looking at an 0-4 mark on the road, with an average loss of about 14 ppg. One of these losses came to this very Falcons team, when the Falcons beat up on them 45-28.

 

So, even if the Panthers can get their 2008 swagger back, it seems like they still don't have a ton to look forward to. I also reviewed Atlanta's stellar home numbers in last week's write up, further enforcing the strength of this pick. Last week Atlanta proved their run last year was no fluke, taking it to a quality Miami defense and forcing their offense into several uncharacteristic turnovers. This is especially impressive given how well Miami took care of the ball all of last year. With a turnover prone Delhomme coming to Atlanta, I'd expect the Falcons to capitalize on a few more opportunities for a takeaway. Against a Panthers' defense that isn't as good as the defense the Falcons faced last week, I expect Atlanta to score without much difficulty as well. When all is said and done, look for a comfortable Falcons win.

 

Best of luck to everyone this week, hopefully we can make it another winning week!

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Overall NCAA YTD: 46-35-1; +5.91 units

NCAA Subset: 5 unit plays or higher: 21-21-1; -20.05 units

 

Overall NFL YTD: 6-5; +4.09 units

NFL Subset: 5 unit plays: 1-0; +5.0 units

 

 

Sunday, for 2 units unless indicated otherwise.

 

Oakland (+3)@-120 for 5 units WINNER

Houston (+7.5)@-110 for 5 units WINNER

NY Jets (+3.5)@-121 WINNER

Cincinnati (+10)@-126 for 5 units WINNER

New Orleans (-1)@-117 for 5 units WINNER

Carolina (+7)@-116 for 5 units LOSER

Washington (-8.5)@-110 LOSER

Arizona (+3.5)@-115 for 5 units WINNER

 

Seattle (+1)@-107 for 5 units LOSER

Tampa Bay (+4.5)@-111 LOSER

Cleveland (+3.5)@-103 LOSER

Baltimore (+3)@-123 WINNER

Chicago (+1)@+116 for 5 units WINNER

 

Dallas (-2.5)@-104 LOSER

 

Indianapolis (-3)@-115 for 5 units WINNER

 

Dr Bob this week in NFL: 3 stars Oakland,

Strong Opinions: Carolina, Under Car/Atl, Tampa Bay, Under SD/Balt

 

Good luck to all.

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Where the action is going:

 

Oakland 76% over Kansas City

Tennessee 82% over Houston

New England 70% over NY Jets

Green Bay 62% over Cincinnati

Minnesota 75% over Detroit

New Orleans 81% over Philadelphia

Atlanta 60% over Carolina

Washington 67% over StLouis

Jacksonville 51% over Arizona

 

Seattle 61% over San Francisco

Buffalo 68% over Tampa Bay

Denver 55% over Cleveland

Baltimore 75% over San Diego

Pittsburgh 83% over Chicago

 

NY Giants 60% over Dallas

Indianapolis 80% over Miami

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Arizona (+3.5)@-115 for 5 units

 

 

Dallas (-2.5)@-104

for 5 units

 

mind giving a write up for these 2 picks?

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Up 10 units on the NFL so, I'll burn it with 2 parlays.

 

Parlay #1(5 units) Cinci+11.5(-160),Jack Even (-160), Jets Even(+165), Rams +11.5(-150), OVER 34.5(-160) Ram&Wa,SanD.Even(-155),Phil +4.5 (-200), Chicago Even LOSER (+125)

 

Parlay #2(5 units) Philly+4.5(-200) & Jets Even LOSER (+165)

 

I put these in yesterday .I hope to jump in on some action later on as well.

 

Good luck All

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I like 2 plays this afternoon

 

Atl -6

 

 

Teaser

Philly +7.5 and Baltimore +9

 

 

each for 2 units

 

 

Good luck all!!!

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I was 4-2 last week with +8 units overall

 

http://www.fftodayforums.com/forum/index.p...349528&st=0

 

This week i am going with

 

New England Patriots -4 (-105) For 3 units

Detroit Lions +10½ (-115) for 3 units

Atlanta Falcons -6 (-115) For 2 units

St. Louis Rams vs. Washington Redskins Over 37 (-105) For 2 units

Indianapolis Colts -3½ (+105) for 2 units

Jacksonville Jaguars -3 For 1 unit

San Francisco 49ers -1 For 1 unit

Denver Broncos -3 (-120) For 2 units

Baltimore Ravens +3 (-135) For 2 units

Pittsburgh Steelers -3 For 2 units

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mind giving a write up for these 2 picks?

 

I just back home. Sorry for the delay. Week 2 is the best week for overvalue/undervalue plays. Ebb and flow of the NFL.

 

Arizona outplayed SF and had no real business losing last week despite looking kind of shitty, which was fine by me as I had SF. They outgained SF by 100 total yards, gained 4.7 yards per play to SF's 3.4, and Arizona lost the turnover battle. They are undervalued. By the way, SF is overvalued, which made Seattle a play for me too.

 

Indy beat Jax by only 2 points, which has me scratching my head. Indy had 140 more total yards, averaged 5.2 yards per play vs 4.1 for Jax, but lost the turnover battle 2-0. Indy undervalued, Jax overvalued. Again, the basis for a couple plays for me today. Jax also had a bad secondary.

 

As far as Dallas and NY Giants, it's only a 2 unit play. Simply, a lot of people think this is a game the Giants will win, about the fans that I talk to on a daily basis, just run it down the Cowboys throats. New stadium emotion, they completely shut down Giants run game in Dallas last year, and I could be wrong but if I remember the stat correctly, Dallas is 6-1 ATS last 7 as favorite.

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I just back home. Sorry for the delay. Week 2 is the best week for overvalue/undervalue plays. Ebb and flow of the NFL.

 

Arizona outplayed SF and had no real business losing last week despite looking kind of shitty, which was fine by me as I had SF. They outgained SF by 100 total yards, gained 4.7 yards per play to SF's 3.4, and Arizona lost the turnover battle. They are undervalued. By the way, SF is overvalued, which made Seattle a play for me too.

 

Indy beat Jax by only 2 points, which has me scratching my head. Indy had 140 more total yards, averaged 5.2 yards per play vs 4.1 for Jax, but lost the turnover battle 2-0. Indy undervalued, Jax overvalued. Again, the basis for a couple plays for me today. Jax also had a bad secondary.

 

As far as Dallas and NY Giants, it's only a 2 unit play. Simply, a lot of people think this is a game the Giants will win, about the fans that I talk to on a daily basis, just run it down the Cowboys throats. New stadium emotion, they completely shut down Giants run game in Dallas last year, and I could be wrong but if I remember the stat correctly, Dallas is 6-1 ATS last 7 as favorite.

 

 

Damn, i just put a relatively large wager on Jax for the following reasons:

 

Moved the ball well last week against Indy but could not finish drives and only lost by 2,

 

Boldin is banged up and Mathis is one of the better cover corners in the NFL to slow down Fitz.

 

West coast team playing at 1 pm est....

 

action is 50/50 which makes me tend toward the favorite

 

I really thought Jax would just be undervalued this year on a whole. I expect a dominant running game and an efficient passing attack. Their O Line appears to be both healthy and improved. WHile their defense leaves alot to be desired, I think that they are well coached and disciplined for the most part.

 

I appreciate you replying and I have learned a ton about sports gambling from your threads over the years.

 

Best of luck on the rest of your bets!

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Carolina/Atlanta O43.5

Arizona ML

New Orleans -2.5

New Orleans O23.5

New England O24.5

Houston +7.5

Minnesota O27.5

 

Seattle ML

Baltimore ML

Tampa Bay +4

 

:thumbsup:

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