5 Late Round WR Targets

[salparadise 1]

Late round value and sleeper picks are the key to a solid draft. I’ve found that most people in my league lose interest after the first ten rounds and do not pay as close attention to late round value picks. This is where you can gain the advantage by stacking your bench with players to trade later in the season.

 

Here is a list of 5 WR’s I am going to target in my drafts.

 

Dexter McCluster, WR KC

Todd Haley and the chiefs view McCluster as a Leon Washington type of player who can be used as a running back, wide receiver, and kick returner. His speed and illusiveness make him a nice compliment to Jones and Charles in the backfield, and we are hearing out of Chiefs’ camp that Haley and Weiss are working on getting McCluster involved in their offensive scheme as much as possible. According to the fantasyfootballcalculator, McCluster’s current ADP is 13.01 or 154th overall. A great value in all formats, but even more valuable in leagues that offer PPR and return points.

 

Mike WIlliams, WR TB

Williams is a standout rookie wideout from Syracuse University who fell in this year’s NFL draft to due off-field issues. The Bucs took a chance on him to join their already young and inexperienced team. Williams is currently leading the depth chart battle for the starting X receiver and is a great value at his current ADP of 14.4 (186th Overall).

 

Golden Tate, WR SEA

Little Man Tate was the main offensive weapon for the Irish last year but was not drafted early due to doubts about his short stature. Tate has great hands and is making a name for himself at Camp. If Tate wins the starting job opposite TJ Houshmandzadeh, he would be a great possession receiver for Matt Hasselbeck. Think of Tate as a poor man’s Wes Welker without the knee issues.

 

Lance Moore, WR NO

Moore had a breakout 08 campaign in which he put up 79 catches for 928 yards and 10 TD’s. An injury plauged 09 season in which he played in only 7 games caused Lance to fall way down most draft boards. We have read numerous accounts that Lance is having a great camp and should be the check down and underneath option for Brees and the Saints. I don’t anticipate another 10 TD year, but a solid all around year from a WR with and ADP of 13.12 is a great value.

 

Nate Burleson, WR DET

This injury plagued journeyman wideout has made his latest stop in Detroit to play opposite Megatron. If he can stay healthy, Burleson could put up great numbers in an offense with a young QB with a big arm, two young RB’s to keep the secondary honest, and the most dangerous wideout in the league on the other side of the field to draw double coverage. At 13.08 (162nd Overall), Nate is a great pick for a flex/bench spot.

[c9h13no3 0]

Not a bad list, despite having 3 rookies on it. But because I enjoy picking on Dexter McCluster so much....

 

Rotowire: "[McCluster will] have a hard time making a fantasy impact in his first year."

 

FFToday's 2010 Outlook: "He is a decent prospect in dynasty league but is waiver wire material in re-draft formats."

 

FFToday's 2010 Rookie Impact: "but it will likely take Chris Chambers reverting back to his form as a member of the 2009 Chargers or Urban getting injured for McCluster to enjoy the kind of season Harvin did last season."

 

Yahoo: While Yahoo's experts agree he's a top 5 rookie WR, that's essentially saying that he's in the top 5 worst WR options. They rank McCluster a full tier below names like Laurent Robinson, Jacoby Jones, Chaz Schilens, Chambers, Gaffney, Moore, ect. And all of those guys can be had for a song in the draft.

 

FFToday's Rookie WR Analysis: "all but four of the rookie WRs [to perform well] were at least six feet tall (and most were 6’2” or taller) and all but five were at least 200 pounds. In fact all of those who had achieved “stud” fantasy seasons were 6’4” tall." Guess how tall McCluster is. In fact, in Salvatore's '10 version of the Rookie Impact - WR's article, McCluster wasn't even mentioned.

 

IMO (and obviously the opinion of others), putting McCluster at the top of this list seems a bit overly optimistic.

 

I like Mike Williams, and I think given his starter status, he's almost guaranteed to produce at least low end WR3 numbers this year, barring injury. Tate's also in a great situation, and Moore is looking better everyday that Colston & Meachem stay hurt.

 

Burleson, bleh, I'm not sold that Stafford is going to be good enough to support two fantasy WR's yet.

[stonewall 647]

1. Laurent Robinson - Has the skills to be a value WR3, with WR2 upside. He has to stay healthy....and so does Bradford and SJ to keep D's honest. Forget about Avery.

 

2. Harry Douglas - Roddy can't get every pass, and with the injury to Jenkins he has the chance and the ability to make a big impact.

 

3. Nate Burleson - Don't count this guy out. He is still young and fast.....and will fight for the ball. Recently, the Lions head coach was asked about red zone options this year and he said Best and Burl had been the most impressive and consistent in RZ drills. We know that Calvin will see double coverage and Burl is WR2....so do the math.

 

4. Legedu Naanee - Could be a steal if VJ holds out for 10 games. He is extremely quick with good hands.......and we know that Rivers will get his.

 

5. Early Doucet - He showed us what he can do with the ball in the playoffs last season. If he becomes the new "Boldin" in Arizona, watch out.

 

6. Jordan Shipley - With all the hype around TO, Ocho, and the oft-injured Bryant......hide and watch this guy pull a Welker and go off this year.

[phins2119 0]

1. Laurent Robinson - Has the skills to be a value WR3, with WR2 upside. He has to stay healthy....and so does Bradford and SJ to keep D's honest. Forget about Avery.

 

2. Harry Douglas - Roddy can't get every pass, and with the injury to Jenkins he has the chance and the ability to make a big impact.

 

3. Nate Burleson - Don't count this guy out. He is still young and fast.....and will fight for the ball. Recently, the Lions head coach was asked about red zone options this year and he said Best and Burl had been the most impressive and consistent in RZ drills. We know that Calvin will see double coverage and Burl is WR2....so do the math.

 

4. Legedu Naanee - Could be a steal if VJ holds out for 10 games. He is extremely quick with good hands.......and we know that Rivers will get his.

 

5. Early Doucet - He showed us what he can do with the ball in the playoffs last season. If he becomes the new "Boldin" in Arizona, watch out.

 

6. Jordan Shipley - With all the hype around TO, Ocho, and the oft-injured Bryant......hide and watch this guy pull a Welker and go off this year.

 

 

I agree with what u said about Doucet. I have always liked his game at LSU. I can invision Doucet starting over Breaston at some point. Question is, where do u see a guy like Doucet getting drafted?

[mobb_deep 917]

4. Legedu Naanee - Could be a steal if VJ holds out for 10 games. He is extremely quick with good hands.......and we know that Rivers will get his.

 

5. Early Doucet - He showed us what he can do with the ball in the playoffs last season. If he becomes the new "Boldin" in Arizona, watch out.

 

6. Jordan Shipley - With all the hype around TO, Ocho, and the oft-injured Bryant......hide and watch this guy pull a Welker and go off this year.

 

Liking these 3...

 

I'll add a couple more too.

 

1) Torry Holt: Am I the only one that thinks he can put up decent WR3 numbers in New England? With Moss drawing so much coverage and Welker/Edelmen in the slot, I see alot of open looks for Torry. He's not the player he was 3 or 4 years ago, but a savvy vet like himself should be able to post decent numbers. I'm also not buying the Brandon Tate hype.

 

2) Jacoby Jones: The camp battle between him and Walter is really tight. If Jacoby can grab the #2 he could have a huge year. Either way I'm watching this battle very close. Both are mocking in the 12th round or later right now. Huge value either way.

[Raider 84 29]

Holt might not even make the Patriots roster. I do like Jacoby Jones a lot. James Jones or Jordy Nelson should be nice sleepers as well.

[mobb_deep 917]

Holt might not even make the Patriots roster. I do like Jacoby Jones a lot. James Jones or Jordy Nelson should be nice sleepers as well.

 

Brandon Tate sucks. Holt will win the job over him imo.

[madd futher mucker 36]

1st, this was a very nice write-up!

 

As always, some are better late round targets than others. Of course, the degree of potential fantasy upside for these guys depends highly on your scoring format. The best on your list for upside in all scoring formats has to be Mike Williams.

 

Burleson, G Tate, McCluster and L Moore are really much more fantasy relevant in PPR. McCluster and the "golden one" aka the "doughnut kid" likely will have great fantasy value in those PPR leagues where the player gets credited for return yardage. I particularly like the Lance Moore pick in PPR. I expect that all of these guys will either start or see considerable playing time.

 

 

Stonewall's five (since Burleson was on both list) are pretty good as well.

 

I particularly liked Douglas, who I snatched off open waivers, dropping Emmanuel Sanders - who I'm also very high on in dynasty and deep keeper formats. Keep your eye on former QB turned WR Kerry Meier down in Atlanta too. He has been most impressive and opened a lot of eyes in camp so far.

 

I also like your Shipley pick, again especially for ppr. I'm virtually certain he will start in the slot. He should

get a pretty fair number of receptions as he's a fearless and rock-solid route-runner with sure hands.

 

A situation to keep a very close eye on is Naanee vs the very talented Buster Davis in SD for the #2WR spot. This year so far it is Naanee missing valuable time (now a pulled groin) and Buster is (finally) healthy (so far at least) and making plays all over the field. IMO only one of these guys will be fantasy relevant given the number of targets that will go to Gates.

 

I'm neutral to negative on L Rob and Doucet right now. I just don't like WR2/3 type prospects with poor or inexperienced QBs. In addition, L Rob will be splitting with Avery and several others and there are some very talented young WRs pushing Doucet.

 

My own late round targets in non-ppr in addition to the guys i already mentioned were Mike Thomas and Brandon Tate.

I might do an in-depth write up on these two guys in the near future. I think they just might have the most upside in that format of any of the guys on this list. Sorry, mobb deep, but what I saw last year tells me that Holt has nothing left in the tank.

 

Mobb deep's mention of Jacoby jones is right on though, IMO. Jacoby Jones is really challenging Kevin Walter (who says he's in the best playing shape of his life). With Schaub slinging the rock, both could become fantasy relevant, but the guy who lines up opposite A J is the one to get. My money is on Jacoby to finally break out this year.

 

Again, kudos to salparadise, who is having a break-out year himself right here with pieces like this one!

[MissionCoach 4]

Looking hard at Mike Williams/TB and Lance Moore

 

Also keeping an eye on Devin Thomas/Wash.

McNabb could elevate his game

[tanatastic 2,061]

someone tell my about anthony gonzalez. I know hes coming back from a knee but he could be the wr2 for the colts. i dont care what garcon and collie did, you can plug anyone in there and the colts will move the ball. gonzo was a trendy 5th rounder or so last year, why cant he live up to that this year?

[madd futher mucker 36]

Brandon Tate sucks. Holt will win the job over him imo.

 

Please provide any concrete evidence from traing camp or otherwise that:

 

1. Brandon Tate sucks

2. Holt woll be the starter opposite R.M.

[salparadise 1]

 

 

Again, kudos to salparadise, who is having a break-out year himself right here with pieces like this one!

 

Thanks!

[WhiteWonder 2,171]

someone tell my about anthony gonzalez. I know hes coming back from a knee but he could be the wr2 for the colts. i dont care what garcon and collie did, you can plug anyone in there and the colts will move the ball. gonzo was a trendy 5th rounder or so last year, why cant he live up to that this year?

 

ive heard some conflicting reports but im going with the positive ones and snapping him up when i can.

 

negative: was reported that gonzo was 4th on the depth chart and that he told reportes he was unsure what his role would be

 

positive: read that gonzo would most likely start in the slot and would at least get a shot to compete for the number 2 spot opposite wayne. then saw a camp report saying Garcon was working in the slot due to Gonzo being healthy again. Finally, there have been a few "rapidreports" on CBS about Gonzo making a bunch of terrific catches in camp working with the 1's.

[FeelingMN 273]

Guys who I've been nabbing as WR4/WR5 in mocks who I'm keeping my eye on:

 

Johnny Knox - good camp so far...showed flashes last year as a rookie

James Jones - offense is prolific...Driver will slow down someday....maybe this year?

Anthony Gonzalez - Colts offense is money, but lots of weapons....could be inconsistent

Mike Thomas - had a decent rookie year...good speed and hands

Jerricho Cotchery - seemed to have good rapport with Sanchez last year....I like him more than Braylon...maybe more than Santonio

 

I don't see any of these guys as anything more than WR3...but they'll be fine for bye weeks/injury replacements.

[Raider 84 29]

Brandon Tate sucks. Holt will win the job over him imo.

I am one of the biggest Holt fans, but what I've read he is no lock to make the team. The Patriots have Moss, Welker, Edelmen, Aiken, Price, Tate, and Holt. Moss, Welker, Edelmen, and Price are locks. I heard Holt is having trouble getting separation from the defensive backs.

[c9h13no3 0]

Year - Team, FPPG

2005 - STL, 20.7

2006 - STL, 17.0

2007 - STL, 15.9

2008 - STL, 10.1

2009 - JAC, 8.2

 

If you think Holt has anything left in the tank, you're as messed up as his middle finger. His numbers have declined every year, and he got 103 targets last year, so you can't blame his workload.

[Enoch 1]

I have been going after:

Mike Thomas

Jacoby Jones

 

 

Harry Douglas - might look into him more after reading this post

[Laurence Maroney's Nuts 2]

 

 

5. Early Doucet - He showed us what he can do with the ball in the playoffs last season. If he becomes the new "Boldin" in Arizona, watch out.

 

 

Unfortunately, for Doucet to become the new "Boldin", Matt Leinart will have to become the new "Warner", so I wouldn't hold my breath on this one ;p

[buffalobillsffl2003 0]

Someone to consider in the last round or two of your draft, Steve Johnson. He may start opposite Lee Evans.

[cheesesteaks 0]

There are several good WRs available in late rounds. Some with potential to be WR2 like:

 

Mike Williams (TB) = big target that is excelling in camp

James Jones (GB) = prolific offense + Driver will not last forever

Jacoby Jones = Prolific offense + competing with Walter for #2 (I'm considering drafting Walter and Jacoby to guarantee that spot)

 

Other sleepers:

 

Hartline (Mia) = he is #2 WR now so worth watching in preseason

McCluster (KC) = will get runs and catches + Weis will use him as a Welker-type

Schilens (Oak) = Big body with talent that should be #1 WR there

Berrian (Min) = If Rice and Harvin are hampered by injuries he can get a lot more targets

[Cara 0]

I agree with what u said about Doucet. I have always liked his game at LSU. I can invision Doucet starting over Breaston at some point. Question is, where do u see a guy like Doucet getting drafted?

 

 

I am in a ton of early drafts. So far, Doucet has only been drafted in one of them and it was in the 15th round of an 18 round draft. In all my other drafts, he has not been touched. I really like Doucet, but only if Breaston goes down, or in 2012. I do not think the Cardinals will re-sign Breaston after this season, meaning Doucet is an excellent Dynasty guy to stash away for the future.

[madd futher mucker 36]

I pretty much agree with Cara: He's a decent (I won't say great) dynasty prospect, but a poor re-draft prospect this year. So far, no one other than Fitz has distimguished themselves in camp.

 

The Cards have some very good young WRs in addition to the names you already know. One in particular that I'm high on is Andre Roberts. But all of them have had their good days and bad days in camp. So nobody has really stepped up including Doucet, the byword being "inconsistent".

 

I also have no faith in either Leinart or Anderson to be able to make the receiving corps look better than they really are right now. So I'm staying away from Doucet as a late-round upside pick this year. I think there are at leat a 1/2 dozen to a dozen names that you could draft late that have better upside.

[IGotWorms 3,311]

Regarding the NE WR situation, reports out of camp are that Brandon Tate has looked very good and Torry Holt is on the bubble to even make the roster. The Pats are giving Tate every opportunity to take the starting position opposite Randy Moss (with Welker the third "starter" in the slot) and it looks like Tate has stepped up to the plate so far.

 

Yes it is early: Tate has yet to show anything on the field during an actual game, and Holt could become important to the team if an injury occurs. That said, the guy to target late right now is Tate, not Holt.

[nobody 2,037]

I wouldn't even bother with Burleson. Everyone seems to single him out every year as a guy to get, but even in the best situations he could be in as the number 1 in Minnesota and then in Seattle, he still only had mediocre numbers. As a number 2 he hasn't been worth much fantasy-wise.

[fantasytool 0]

Jordy Nelson!!

[Grizzly 0]

Legedu Naanee-WR- Chargers

The Chargers' initial preseason depth chart confirms that Legedu Naanee is the team's projected starting flanker.

It's barely even a competition with Craig Davis at this point. Naanee will be a third option in the passing game behind Antonio Gates and Malcom Floyd, but arguably has the best hands on the team. He's worth a flier in PPR drafts.

 

http://www.rotoworld.com/content/playerpages/player_main.aspx?sport=NFL&id=4271

[nobody 2,037]

Legedu Naanee-WR- Chargers

The Chargers' initial preseason depth chart confirms that Legedu Naanee is the team's projected starting flanker.

It's barely even a competition with Craig Davis at this point. Naanee will be a third option in the passing game behind Antonio Gates and Malcom Floyd, but arguably has the best hands on the team. He's worth a flier in PPR drafts.

 

http://www.rotoworld.com/content/playerpages/player_main.aspx?sport=NFL&id=4271

 

 

Did Jax play flanker our split end?

[mobb_deep 917]

Regarding the NE WR situation, reports out of camp are that Brandon Tate has looked very good and Torry Holt is on the bubble to even make the roster. The Pats are giving Tate every opportunity to take the starting position opposite Randy Moss (with Welker the third "starter" in the slot) and it looks like Tate has stepped up to the plate so far.

 

Yes it is early: Tate has yet to show anything on the field during an actual game, and Holt could become important to the team if an injury occurs. That said, the guy to target late right now is Tate, not Holt.

 

Don't get me wrong... I read the same thing before my initial post. I just take everything coming out of NE with a grain of salt. Bellichek has a hisory of going with vet's. Obviously it's a wait and see at this point, but Holt is worth a flyer in the last round. Better than wasting the pick on a kicker or defense.

 

Did Jax play flanker our split end?

 

He's the flanker.

[c9h13no3 0]

Holt is worth a flyer in the last round. Better than wasting the pick on a kicker or defense.

Honestly, I think a kicker has more upside than Holt at this point. I really just can't understand why you think Holt has the upside worthy of a boom/bust WR flier.

 

Anyways, I posted a WR flier thread a month ago that I've slowly been tweaking. This is what I've got so far. I'll probably post a final list at the end of August, FWIW. Its amazing how much this list has changed though.

 

The Sleeper WR Ranking List

Stats Read: Targets/Receptions/Yards/TD's

Assumes PPR scoring system, and only WR's with an ADP below 100 are considered

-------------------------------------Tier #1----------------------------------

 

Knox - 80/45/527/5/, Bears schedule 4th easiest vs. pass, ADP barely 100, Cutler's favorite camp target

Hester - 91/57/757/3, tied for 2nd favorite training camp target, safer bet than Knox, but lower upside

Jacoby Jones - 40/27/437/6, Owen Daniels ACL setback, giving Walter competition in camp

Schilens - 52/29/365/2, 6.5 tar/g when starts, 9th easiest schedule, but injuries linger

Gaffney - Posted 20.3 fppg when >6 targets, 5th worst for WR's, rumors of commitee

Britt - 75/42/701/3, 3rd easiest schedule, still needs to top depth chart.

 

-------------------------------------Tier #2--------------------------------

 

Aromashodu - Last 4 of '09 = 39/22/282/4 (against bad defenses), 4th easiest schedule, Martz runs 3 WR's 61% of the time

Eddie Royal - 79/37/345/0, more upside than Gaffney, but seems poor fit to system

L. Robinson - First two of '09 = 19/11/141/1, toughest schedule, seems to be healthy & drawing camp praise

Mike Williams, TB - May get the 125+ targets he needs to yield WR2 value as a rookie

Mike Thomas - 62/48/453/1, Torry Holt leaves 103 targets, PPR leagues only though

Murphy - 96/34/521/4, 6.25 tar/g when starts, 9th easiest schedule, not injured & not a project

James Jones - 63/32/440/5, Driver's already coming up injured, but Nelson getting camp hype

Massaquoi - 95/34/624/3 - Delhomme sucks, but 10th easiest schedule, and guaranteed 100+ targets

 

-------------------------------------Tier #3--------------------------------

 

Naanee - '09 = 29/24/242/2, media predicting 50 catches, still 3rd option behind Gates/Floyd

Avery - '09 = 97/47/589/5, toughest schedule, had two years and hasn't impressed

Tate - Old has-beens above him on depth chart, but smallish & rookie. Also Deon Butler drawing praise.

Doucet - Leinart is bad, Breaston still in mix for targets.

Heyward-Bey - '09 season was *that bad*, but he's got a starting job.

Douglas - Stuck in the slot, not a threat to Jenkins job, worth a PPR/return yards flier.

D. Thomas - Dissapointing so far, but still has time to get starter job.

[IGotWorms 3,311]

Nice list. I noticed McCluster isn't on it though: do you think he won't do much this year? And what about the other Tate (Brandon)?

[c9h13no3 0]

I noticed McCluster isn't on it though: do you think he won't do much this year?

Read my first post in this thread. With McCluster, its a matter of opportunity. In PPR leagues, he needs ~100 targets to have WR2 upside. In standard leagues, he needs to score touchdowns. He's unlikely to do either of those things. Return yardage leagues, maybe he's worth a flier. Everyone loves his talent, but a fast 20-yard short shuttle time never guaranteed fantasy production.

 

And what about the other Tate (Brandon)?

Yeah, I should probably have him on this list. But right now Welker looks pretty good. If Welker misses any time or Moss gets injured, I think B. Tate should get a serious look. But Tate's going to be most valuable in dynasty leagues, with Moss's contract up after this year. But as I said earlier, its a work in progress, and it changes all the time.

 

Lance Moore should also be added to the list above, but yeah, I just copy & pasted it out of the notepad file I keep updating, so he's not there.

[madd futher mucker 36]

At this stage in the pre-season it is just wrong to exclude either Brandon Tate or McCluster from any list of WRs with break-out potential.

 

While Tate's path to fantasy relevance is somewhat more uncertain this year, it is no more uncertain than many who were mentioned above. He will still likely be that other wide-out opposite Randy Moss. Since I also assume that Welker will be in his usual slot role, that means Tate will be the #3 receiver in the New England offense. His numbers will likely be determined largely by how much faith Brady has in him as a route-runner.

 

 

I know enough about McCluster's potential this year to confidently say that I will be targeting him at least a full round ahead of ADP in every PPR league I can (including the FFPC). I'm not saying it is gonna happen, but I will say this: I'm higher on Bowe this year than I've ever been, and yet I still can envision a scenario where McCluster leads the Chiefs in receptions this year. IMHO, the Todd Hailey/Charlie Weis offense is the perfect showcase for McCluster's skill-set in a Wes Welker-like role. It is NOT about opportunity. McCluster will have full opportunity to produce in that offense from day 1.

 

Every rookie talent evaluator that I respect that actully studied game film of McCluster (I posted and linked Matt Waldman's article that summarized his impressions of McCluster after studying plenty of complete game tape) has described this kid is special, and I've seen all the evidence myself on his videos. And that has nothing to do with his combine or 20 yard short shuttle. In fact, his combine numbers did not do justice to his game speed or football savvy. Right now McCluster's consensus ADP is around 167 or late 14th round in 12 team leagues. I would advise you not to pass on him in the in the 14th round of a PPR league.

[waxg 3]

I am one of the biggest Holt fans, but what I've read he is no lock to make the team. The Patriots have Moss, Welker, Edelmen, Aiken, Price, Tate, and Holt. Moss, Welker, Edelmen, and Price are locks. I heard Holt is having trouble getting separation from the defensive backs.

 

 

ESPN Boston's Mike Reiss is the latest scribe to predict that Torry Holt will not make the Patriots' roster this season.

The Pats seem likely to keep six or seven receivers, but special teamers Sam Aiken and Matthew Slater are ticketed for those final two spots. Holt was already behind the eight-ball before missing this week's practices with an undisclosed injury. Wes Welker's quicker than anticipated return leaves Holt without an offensive role.

Source: ESPN Boston

[Joey Gladstone 33]

Burleson is the only player I like out of the OP's list.

 

Jacoby Jones and Austin Collie are the late WR's that I'm all over.

 

Not as much of a late pick, but if Vince Young has grown as a passer I think Kenny Britt could get close to 1,000 yards and 6+ scores.

[Joey Gladstone 33]

I wouldn't even bother with Burleson. Everyone seems to single him out every year as a guy to get, but even in the best situations he could be in as the number 1 in Minnesota and then in Seattle, he still only had mediocre numbers. As a number 2 he hasn't been worth much fantasy-wise.

 

I believe 2008 would have been his best season as a pro, but was lost due to injury. He was coming off of a knee injury and in one of worst offenses in the league last season and he still could have topped 1,000 yards if he hadn't missed three games. A lot of his value is dependent on Stafford, but considering he can be had in the 13th round, its a small risk.

[Patriotsfatboy1 1,432]

ESPN Boston's Mike Reiss is the latest scribe to predict that Torry Holt will not make the Patriots' roster this season.

The Pats seem likely to keep six or seven receivers, but special teamers Sam Aiken and Matthew Slater are ticketed for those final two spots. Holt was already behind the eight-ball before missing this week's practices with an undisclosed injury. Wes Welker's quicker than anticipated return leaves Holt without an offensive role.

Source: ESPN Boston

 

I disagree for several reasons:

- Slater has not even been practicing. He has been a big disappointment.

- Aiken's key benefit is as a special teamer. One of his key positions is the protector on the punt team. Lately, safety Pat Chung has been handling those duties, which could be a signal for Aiken not making the team.

- Holt is a workhorse. Does not have the separation that he used to, but he has great hands and runs great routes, which is exactly what Belichick wants from that spot (Galloway stunk at both).

 

I think that Holt sticks and Slater and Aiken are both cut.

[c9h13no3 0]

Does it even matter if Holt makes the team? He's obviously 5th in line to receive targets behind Moss, Welker, Tate, Edelman. Even if he does make the team he's a non-factor in fantasy. If you're picking Holt in the late rounds, you're wasting a pick.

 

So lets summarize. In order for Holt to achieve fantasy relevance the following need to happen:

 

1) Make the team. This is not a sure bet.

2) Move up the depth chart 2-3 spots, again unlikely to happen.

3) Somehow get enough targets from Welker/Moss to be fantasy relevant, which essentially means one of them needs to be hurt, because the Patriots offense has never supported 3 fantasy relevant WR's. Even in 2007 when Tom Brady threw 50 billion TD passes, they didn't produce a fantasy relevant WR3.

 

This is like the long shot of long shots. Guys like Louis Murphy, Mike Williams, and Mike Thomas are already in line to see at least 100 targets and they're getting praise in camp. Holt has to overcome 2 things that seem unlikely to happen in order to even get to their level of projected targets, and even then scouts think he has nothing left in the tank talent-wise. And even if he had the opportunity those guys have, Holt probably doesn't have anything left in the tank.

 

And all this Torry Holt hate comes from a guy that grew up in Holt's hometown (Gibsonville NC, represent!), watched Torry Holt play at NC State (which I later attended), and then was a big fan of his in the NFL. But sometimes, you just have to realize when a guy is done, Holt has *been* done.

[Patriotsfatboy1 1,432]

Does it even matter if Holt makes the team? He's obviously 5th in line to receive targets behind Moss, Welker, Tate, Edelman. Even if he does make the team he's a non-factor in fantasy. If you're picking Holt in the late rounds, you're wasting a pick.

 

So lets summarize. In order for Holt to achieve fantasy relevance the following need to happen:

 

1) Make the team. This is not a sure bet.

2) Move up the depth chart 2-3 spots, again unlikely to happen.

3) Somehow get enough targets from Welker/Moss to be fantasy relevant, which essentially means one of them needs to be hurt, because the Patriots offense has never supported 3 fantasy relevant WR's. Even in 2007 when Tom Brady threw 50 billion TD passes, they didn't produce a fantasy relevant WR3.

 

This is like the long shot of long shots. Guys like Louis Murphy, Mike Williams, and Mike Thomas are already in line to see at least 100 targets and they're getting praise in camp. Holt has to overcome 2 things that seem unlikely to happen in order to even get to their level of projected targets, and even then scouts think he has nothing left in the tank talent-wise. And even if he had the opportunity those guys have, Holt probably doesn't have anything left in the tank.

 

And all this Torry Holt hate comes from a guy that grew up in Holt's hometown (Gibsonville NC, represent!), watched Torry Holt play at NC State (which I later attended), and then was a big fan of his in the NFL. But sometimes, you just have to realize when a guy is done, Holt has *been* done.

 

I wouldn't waste a late round pick on Holt either.

 

However, your assumption that Tate is ahead of him is a bit of a reach. Welker and Edelman are both slot guys. The question is whether Holt or Tate plays opposite Moss.

 

Tate should be starting tonight and we will see how he looks.

[nobody 2,037]

Does it even matter if Holt makes the team? He's obviously 5th in line to receive targets behind Moss, Welker, Tate, Edelman. Even if he does make the team he's a non-factor in fantasy. If you're picking Holt in the late rounds, you're wasting a pick.

 

 

I don't think that pecking order is necessarily accurate if Holt is kept. Tate and Edelman might be used more on special teams. Tate's real football value is not necessarily as a receiver as much as it is as a kick returner. I don't think Holt stays on, but if he does, I think that's bad news for Tate fantasy-wise.

[IGotWorms 3,311]

I wouldn't waste a late round pick on Holt either.

 

However, your assumption that Tate is ahead of him is a bit of a reach. Welker and Edelman are both slot guys. The question is whether Holt or Tate plays opposite Moss.

 

Tate should be starting tonight and we will see how he looks.

 

Tate is very much ahead of Holt. The Pats want him to take over if/when Randy Moss leaves after this year. Unless Tate falls flat on his face, he will be one of the top 4 WRs in NE this year. Otherwise it is obviously Randy Moss and Wes Welker, with Julian Edelman just being too damn good to pass up for targets. That leaves Holt #5 at best.